Supreme Novices 2018

[Quevega]

Good points and all are valid and could happen, its a nagging feeling more than anything. He may well bolt up and good luck to anyone on him. He just isn't for me.

Aren't most horse's running straight, it's not like they.re running around a square or rectangle. Or even a crossroads, cos then I could see it being an issue if a horse has always turned right.
The only thing that I'm wary of is when a horse veers left or right when jumping, and does it on more than one occasion.
Getabird hasn't really done that .

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Good points and all are valid and could happen, its a nagging feeling more than anything. He may well bolt up and good luck to anyone on him. He just isn't for me.

Fair play, I'd never put anyone going against a shorty, there is value around still. Good luck with your bets.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I am not an exchange person, but I would only bet against him after the off & once he has jump 3 or 4 hurdles we will know if he likes going left handed..

Worth considering what the other pilots might try too.
Few in here are likely to remember the Carvills Hill/Golden Freeze Gold Cup, a good example of how the performance of one horse can be easily be impacted by another....

 

[kinloch brae]

It seems many are pinning their hopes on Getabird being unable to go left handed to get him beat when in reality there are 3 outcomes:

1. They are correct, he can't go left handed and it affects his performance enough for him to be beat.

2. It has no effect on him and he runs his race, and won't be out the first 2.

3. He improves for going left handed and fairly bolts up.

All 3 are possibilities and we have no proof for either argument whether it will make a difference or not to his running, so for this reason I'd struggle to go against him on the basis of probablity. He doesn't strike me as a horse that has his quirks, so I see no reason to doubt him now.

Not so sure about 2 as it isn't certain that he has the best form in the race. He might not have beaten a great deal last time and is that form better than the others? Mengli Khan is ex-Flat and might already have peaked. I have backed Paloma Blue and I would be more worried about the ground than Getabird.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Horses like Getabird are often shortened to create an obvious favourite, this encourages the multi bets that many punters love because they see big and easy money. Only problem is the bookies love them more because they very rarely work out

 

[Kevloaf]

Frank Hickey ...

Getabird has been all the rage for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he was stylish victor of the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle back in January, when beating Mengli Khan.

However, I wouldn’t be the biggest fan of Mengli Khan and therefore I reckon Getabird’s form mightn’t be as good as people may think. If the ground turns up soft, then it will definitely be an advantage to Getabird.

However, he wasn’t that much clear of Mengli Khan. When you remember that Douvan was a 7/4 shot and Vautour was a 7/2 gamble for the Supreme in the past, the 11/8 on Getabird looks pretty skinny and I’m more than willing to take him on.



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Kalashnikov is very highly regarded for Amy Murphy and he won a bumper impressively, before winning his first two hurdle races well. He was beaten in the Tolworth Novices´ Hurdle at Sandown where the ground was very heavy, which he would of detested. It’s testament to how brave the horse is that he came back to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last month on soft ground.

He’s 5/1 for this and if you are on the cautious side you can back him each-way. I can’t see him not being in the top three and if Getabird has any weakness at all, I believe Kalashnikov is the one to take advantage

 

[Roaring Bull ROARING BULL]

Barry Geraghty sounds very confident that Kalashnikov has the beating of Getabird

 

[SeanRock]

I think some people are forgetting Getabird was carrying 6lbs less than Mengli Khan in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown. His winning margin would probably have been a lot less had they been off levels. On Tuesday Ruby's obviously likely to make the pace from the start to make it a proper test of stamina similar to the tactics he used on Champagne Fever & Vautour but connections have openly said Getabird is more alike Champagne Fever than a Douvan or Vautour.

He may be vulnerable to something that will appreciate the good gallop, come off the pace & possibly reel him in coming up the hill. Summerville Boy fits the bill for me anyway.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think some people are forgetting Getabird was carrying 6lbs less than Mengli Khan in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown. His winning margin would probably have been a lot less had they been off levels. On Tuesday Ruby's obviously likely to make the pace from the start to make it a proper test of stamina similar to the tactics he used on Champagne Fever & Vautour but connections have openly said Getabird is more alike Champagne Fever than a Douvan or Vautour.

He may be vulnerable to something that will appreciate the good gallop, come off the pace & possibly reel him in coming up the hill. Summerville Boy fits the bill for me anyway.

Paloma Blue fits that for me... Jamie Lynch from TImeform highlighted that last year he was the joint highest rated bumper horse (with Fayonagh) on his second to her (giving away weight).... and higher than Getabird and Samcro...

If he gets a better pace to run at, a better performance could be expected and he's definitely the best each way bet in the race for me now at double figures.

 

[SeanRock]

Paloma Blue fits that for me... Jamie Lynch from TImeform highlighted that last year he was the joint highest rated bumper horse (with Fayonagh) on his second to her (giving away weight).... and higher than Getabird and Samcro...

If he gets a better pace to run at, a better performance could be expected and he's definitely the best each way bet in the race for me now at double figures.

PB was on the shortlist Kev, just preferred the way SB has settled in his races. That and the previous track experience swung it for me.

 

[Tenty]

PB was on the shortlist Kev, just preferred the way SB has settled in his races. That and the previous track experience swung it for me.

I was thinking Summerville as well Sean. A couple of slight concerns the though. Is he as good going left handed and does he jump well enough?

 

[Kevloaf]

PB was on the shortlist Kev, just preferred the way SB has settled in his races. That and the previous track experience swung it for me.

I was thinking Summerville as well Sean. A couple of slight concerns the though. Is he as good going left handed and does he jump well enough?

Yes I can see why you'd like him. Not dismissing him... it was SUmmerville Boy that lead me to Slate House at 50s not that long ago too...

I actually haven't got Summerville Boy in my book yet, but waiting for final decs and how best to use any offers.

 

[SeanRock]

I was thinking Summerville as well Sean. A couple of slight concerns the though. Is he as good going left handed and does he jump well enough?

Neither would concern me Tenty, his jumping has been quite slick in the main bar one messy leap at the last in the Tolworth. What made the difference last time out was the strong pace Mont Des Avaloirs set imo. Hopefully Getabird will be doing the same next Tuesday.

 

[Kevloaf]

Neither would concern me Tenty, his jumping has been quite slick in the main bar one messy leap at the last in the Tolworth. What made the difference last time out was the strong pace Mont Des Avaloirs set imo. Hopefully Getabird will be doing the same next Tuesday.

If you're being really picky, twice ran at Chelt and not won either time...and only won on Heavy over hurdles.... but that is manipulating the stats a bit to suit...

 

[SeanRock]

If you're being really picky, twice ran at Chelt and not won either time...and only won on Heavy over hurdles.... but that is manipulating the stats a bit to suit...

Yeah he has his holes the same as the rest of them Kev but the race Western Ryder won was a shambles, it was run at a snails pace and turned into a sprint which didn’t suit at all and the race Slate House won half the hurdles were missed due to low lying sun. Neither were proper tests imo.

 

[TimRiggins]

Paloma Blue fits that for me... Jamie Lynch from TImeform highlighted that last year he was the joint highest rated bumper horse (with Fayonagh) on his second to her (giving away weight).... and higher than Getabird and Samcro...

If he gets a better pace to run at, a better performance could be expected and he's definitely the best each way bet in the race for me now at double figures.

I've backed PB with the Sky refund offer.

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah he has his holes the same as the rest of them Kev �� but the race Western Ryder won was a shambles, it was run at a snails pace and turned into a sprint which didn’t suit at all and the race Slate House won half the hurdles were missed due to low lying sun. Neither were proper tests imo.

Yep. I agree.

I'll have him on side before the off

 

[AnFiieLD.]

Getabird a bit weak, out to 3.5 on the exchanges and out to 7/4 with the bookies.

 

[darlojim]

Could be just price adjustment? He was never going to go off close to evs on the day imo

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Getabird a bit weak, out to 3.5 on the exchanges and out to 7/4 with the bookies.

He was always too short for this anyway IMO. Market will adjust accordingly over the next few days. Archie had said to wait until the day to back Getabird, purely because he will drift.