Supreme Novices 2018

[Kevloaf]

Has anyone still got a spot for Sharjah in their Supreme team?

Sharjah (Supreme Novices' Hurdle)
He disappointed badly at Leopardstown but we think the ground was too soft, softer than expected. It may have affected more horses than we thought. He’s a different horse on dry ground and goes for the Supreme.

Interesting comments from Mullins, as he's never had him run on Good ground.... he fell when it was soft and had the race at his mercy.

20/1 available.... big price for what would effectively be a grade 1 winning hurdler back on his "prefered" ground for such powerful connections?

I'm on at 30/1 pt and 7/1 1 pt :highly_amused:

Nothing each way though..... and I think the price is big enough to consider being an each way play?

 

[opatcho]

I was on him, I was concerned that Townsend jumped on real steel instead of him, and he was priced up at 8/1 for that race

Put off him now

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Surprised they are running him against Getabird TBH and leaving nothing for RR in the Ballymore.

 

[Kevloaf]

Surprised they are running him against Getabird TBH and leaving nothing for RR in the Ballymore.

I think that Ricci splitting them has pretty much gone now... VVM and Benie Des Dieux in the mares this year too etc?

That green cap will be all over the place!

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think that Ricci splitting them has pretty much gone now... VVM and Benie Des Dieux in the mares this year too etc?

That green cap will be all over the place!

Pretty much gone because of one race where he has two Mares who haven't really got any other options?!

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Has anyone still got a spot for Sharjah in their Supreme team?

Sharjah (Supreme Novices' Hurdle)
He disappointed badly at Leopardstown but we think the ground was too soft, softer than expected. It may have affected more horses than we thought. He’s a different horse on dry ground and goes for the Supreme.

Interesting comments from Mullins, as he's never had him run on Good ground.... he fell when it was soft and had the race at his mercy.

20/1 available.... big price for what would effectively be a grade 1 winning hurdler back on his "prefered" ground for such powerful connections?

I'm on at 30/1 pt and 7/1 1 pt :highly_amused:

Nothing each way though..... and I think the price is big enough to consider being an each way play?

I still quite like Sharjah. If they hold him up off a strong pace I think he can come through and pick up the pieces. He's my idea of a bet at the prices. He's my last remaining ante post bet in this and I haven't given up all hope yet.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I still quite like Sharjah. If they hold him up off a strong pace I think he can come through and pick up the pieces. He's my idea of a bet at the prices. He's my last remaining ante post bet in this and I haven't given up all hope yet.

I think it's a bit damning of his chance myself FM. I still like the horse too and think he still has plenty of potential, especially on better ground. But it says to me they think he's running for place money at best. If you had the hot fav for the Supreme would you run your only other Novice hurdler in the same race?

 

[Kevloaf]

Pretty much gone because of one race where he has two Mares who haven't really got any other options?!

Well there aren't that many examples of him avoiding clashes either?

Min/Douvan possible - and have other options?
Getabird/Sharjah - these two have other options?
VVM/BBD - BDD defintiely has other options... ?


I think it is just as hard to pick out a time when a Ricci horse this season has specifcally avoided another?

 

[Kevloaf]

I think it's a bit damning of his chance myself FM. I still like the horse too and think he still has plenty of potential, especially on better ground. But it says to me they think he's running for place money at best. If you had the hot fav for the Supreme would you run your only other Novice hurdler in the same race?

Mullins did make a joke on one of the podcasts about the favs in Supreme's having bad records so it is good to have a back-up... maybe he wasn't joking :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Mullins did make a joke on one of the podcasts about the favs in Supreme's having bad records so it is good to have a back-up... maybe he wasn't joking :highly_amused:

There was definitely something said on TV before the first race 2 years back about horses being under 2/1 had an appalling record, lo and behold Min went off 15/8 and lost that year!

I don't remember many, but Dunguib was 4/5 on the off and finished 3rd, obviously if the horse is good enough it wins is my honest thoughts, but strange how badly under 2/1 shots have done in the race.

 

[Kevloaf]

There was definitely something said on TV before the first race 2 years back about horses being under 2/1 had an appalling record, lo and behold Min went off 15/8 and lost that year!

I don't remember many, but Dunguib was 4/5 on the off and finished 3rd, obviously if the horse is good enough it wins is my honest thoughts, but strange how badly under 2/1 shots have done in the race.

Just coincedence I suppose - my personal view is that Getabird isn't as "bombproof" as I've believed some of the other favourites to be.... however I don't reeeeeeeaaally think you can base a bet on what previous favourites have done...for me it is just coincedence.

When they bring out the line "this is a good race for favourites" ... it makes me feel better if I'm on the fav...but really, it has no tangible bearing on any given race on any given day.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think it's a bit damning of his chance myself FM. I still like the horse too and think he still has plenty of potential, especially on better ground. But it says to me they think he's running for place money at best. If you had the hot fav for the Supreme would you run your only other Novice hurdler in the same race?

It is a change for RR to run two against each other but there have been countless examples of second string horses winning big races so it wouldn't really be enough to put me off. It just means I'll be getting a bigger price.

 

[archie]

I guess I'll just have to keep repeating it every ten pages or so. Sit on your hands until the Tuesday morning then do your nuts on any offers on Getabird.

 

[Innoko]

I guess I'll just have to keep repeating it every ten pages or so. Sit on your hands until the Tuesday morning then do your nuts on any offers on Getabird.

You seem supremely confident Archie. I'll be taking your advice and topping up on the day!

 

[Kevloaf]

I guess I'll just have to keep repeating it every ten pages or so. Sit on your hands until the Tuesday morning then do your nuts on any offers on Getabird.

You seem supremely confident Archie. I'll be taking your advice and topping up on the day!

Let's play guess the morning price and guess the SP?

7/2 for restricted stakes
5/2 in the morning
15/8 SP?

 

[opatcho]

Jockey booking and weather permitting, I'm finished with this race

GETABIRD WIN
PALOMA BLUE WIN/PLACE

AP Bets include:

Paloma Blue @ 31
Kalashnikov @ 34
Vision Des Flos @ 700
Slate House @ 51

I have GETABIRD in a few acca's with AJ and Samcro

 

[TheRowebot]

I guess I'll just have to keep repeating it every ten pages or so. Sit on your hands until the Tuesday morning then do your nuts on any offers on Getabird.

What makes you so confident Archie? Quality of Getabird or weakness in opposition?

 

[opatcho]

Just for the record

Lost AP bets

Sharjar - cash out, lost half my stake
ITCF

 

[archie]

What makes you so confident Archie? Quality of Getabird or weakness in opposition?

Both. For me too much is made of the course being left-handed. Willie alternates left-handed and right-handed on the gallops so it's unlikely that it will be an issue.

 

[Scooby91]

Both. For me too much is made of the course being left-handed. Willie alternates left-handed and right-handed on the gallops so it's unlikely that it will be an issue.

Willie mentioned yesterday said he can't see an issue with getabird left handed and it's just a coincidence the timing of his races have been on right handed tracks.


1st. Getabird
2nd daylight
3rd ......