Supreme Novices 2018

[Morley Street]

Fair play Scooby and sorry to mislead but looks like the time was incorrectly quoted on a few sites, sportinglife included. That’s why I come on here to get some straight info �� So the time stacks up but is this an afterthought and can he really do it from the front, or is he going to set it up for a speedier type?

 

[Scooby91]

Fair play Scooby and sorry to mislead but looks like the time was incorrectly quoted on a few sites, sportinglife included. That’s why I come on here to get some straight info �� So the time stacks up but is this an afterthought and can he really do it from the front, or is he going to set it up for a speedier type?

No worries
Can do it from the front imo.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think he looks the perfect Supreme horse. Plenty of gears and stays further. Not unlike a certain Vautour!

Totally agree Ruby will do his usual catch me if you can. RR does have some luck getting strongly fancied horses for this race year on year. Good luck to him.

 

[Scooby91]

I think he looks the perfect Supreme horse. Plenty of gears and stays further. Not unlike a certain Vautour!

Totally agree Ruby will do his usual catch me if you can. RR does have some luck getting strongly fancied horses for this race year on year. Good luck to him.

I know what you mean but no luck there, Pierre boullard / Harold kirk cracking judges of a horse and have built strong contacts relationships . Willie a fantastic trainer but the owners put up the cash and harold/ Pierre have to perform year after year. To supply willie with the raw goods. They're not all expensive min was €60,000

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I know what you mean but no luck there, Pierre boullard / Harold kirk cracking judges of a horse and have built strong contacts relationships . Willie a fantastic trainer but the owners put up the cash and harold/ Pierre have to perform year after year. To supply willie with the raw goods. They're not all expensive min was €60,000

No doubt they are doing a superb job Scooby, but as we've seen with other prominent RR horses and injuries I do think there is always an element of luck involved. If Getabird wins, that would be 4 winners and a second in 5 years for RR in one of the biggest, most competitive races on the calendar. Considering the amount of money other big owners are spending, it's nothing short of remarkable. They don't have anything like that level of domination in any other race!

 

[Kevloaf]

Lots of cogs in the machine...

It is going to be so boring listening to every preview night saying "well connections have done it before with the likes of Champagne Fever, Vautour, Douvan". No doubt min and melon will end up getting said too haha.

It is quite extraordinary really, even operations like giggi and NO with loads more horses can't have had the same kind of domination in a single festival race?

 

[Kevloaf]

I know what you mean but no luck there, Pierre boullard / Harold kirk cracking judges of a horse and have built strong contacts relationships . Willie a fantastic trainer but the owners put up the cash and harold/ Pierre have to perform year after year. To supply willie with the raw goods. They're not all expensive min was €60,000

Min didn't win though ... Mullins clueless

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Surely samcro goes to the Ballymore though? What would make him not

The fact I’ve been on Samcro all season (admittedly for ‘Any Race’ but in loads of trixies for the Neptune) will mean he almost definitely gets moved to the Supreme.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

My position on the race is 16s If The Cap Fits and 7/1 NRNB on him for this. I have Samcro any race but want him in the Neptune as I’ve many multiples with him for that and it would harm ITCF chances.

As for the race away from the bets.. Getabird is deserved favourite after his demolition job yesterday. For me, he’s 100% going to the supreme. I’d be stunned if he went elsewhere. That will surely mean Sharjah goes to the Neptune or stays at home. I’d imagine it’s the former of the two. Next destination is apparently Neptune bound I believe but surely would be a better bet for AB. That Neptune will likely have Samcro, Next Destination, Sharjah and On The Blind Sode which makes it the best novice race of the week by an absolute mile for me.

I expect Getabird will shorten up until the day now. Likely 2/1 across the boards but with one or two pushing him to 9/4 or even 5/2 at the off.

I’ll just continue to pray If The Cap Fits stays sound and Supreme bound and that Elliott aims Samcro at the Neptune. Nothing else we can do but hope.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I don't think they believe he's as good as samcro but I'm not certain at all that he'd give him a complete pasting on the bridle. Jets/minds eye are no mengli khan.
Samcros had an easy time up to now and it's up to him to show the extent of his ability at the festival.

Two questions for the good people on here:

1) If it was a match bet between Samcro and Mengli Khan Over 2m On food ground at Cheltenham, what would you price it up as? I’d got 2/7 Samcro and 9/4 MK.

2) If it was a handicap market between the 2 in a Supreme, what would you have the distance for? Over the Supreme trip, id go -8.5 lengths in favour of Samcro.

 

[Scooby91]

Two questions for the good people on here:

1) If it was a match bet between Samcro and Mengli Khan Over 2m On food ground at Cheltenham, what would you price it up as? I’d got 2/7 Samcro and 9/4 MK.

2) If it was a handicap market between the 2 in a Supreme, what would you have the distance for? Over the Supreme trip, id go -8.5 lengths in favour of Samcro.

1. Prices about right on hype prob 2/7 11/4
2. About right again but I'd back mengli in the handicap.

I'd expect mengli khan to do the same job against minds eye. Just depends hie much samcto has in the tank.

 

[robith]

I've 2 points on ITCF, 2 on Getabird. On to the next one for me!

 

[archie]

Mengli Khan needs a break and should be put away for Punchestown.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Mengli Khan needs a break and should be put away for Punchestown.

It’s 8 weeks to Chelts though Archie. Surely that should be enough?

 

[archie]

It’s 8 weeks to Chelts though Archie. Surely that should be enough?

He's had 4 races in 8 weeks in soft or heavy going and didn't look too keen the last day. An 8 week break is barely enough time to let him down before he's back in serious work.
As an aside, two of the more significant trends for Supreme winners are that they ran in the 59 days prior to the race (10/11) and they won last time out (9/11). He might only just fail to qualify but he still fails.

 

[Innoko]

Mengli Khan needs a break and should be put away for Punchestown.

I concur.

Seems to have been campaigned an awful lot early-mid season for a horse who has an intended target in mid-March.

I wonder if they always knew he wasn't quite good enough and thought they would 'mop up' a few bigger races early in the calendar.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Take your point Archie, but the first two runs were little more than schooling sessions really. Probably do similar in a fast piece of work. Must admit I agree with Innoko though, that they’ve decided to try and mop up a few of the Graded Races over winter rather than prioritise Cheltenham with him. As they should too. Been a great campaign for the horse and there is often too much emphasis on one day in March for the better horses.

 

[Kevloaf]

Two questions for the good people on here:

1) If it was a match bet between Samcro and Mengli Khan Over 2m On food ground at Cheltenham, what would you price it up as? I’d got 2/7 Samcro and 9/4 MK.

2) If it was a handicap market between the 2 in a Supreme, what would you have the distance for? Over the Supreme trip, id go -8.5 lengths in favour of Samcro.

I'd struggle with number 2 ... I wouldn't back it, but would think MK could get closer... 5L maybe.

.... I don't price my own races, but I would definitely back Samcro at 2/7 in the match

 

[Scooby91]

Sayar

He is on the way back from a setback, but his progress hasn’t been as good as we hoped. He won’t make the Dublin Racing Festival and I doubt he’ll make it to Cheltenham. We are more so thinking about the Punchestown Festival for him.

 

[KingSprinterSacre]

Sayar

He is on the way back from a setback, but his progress hasn’t been as good as we hoped. He won’t make the Dublin Racing Festival and I doubt he’ll make it to Cheltenham. We are more so thinking about the Punchestown Festival for him.

Was just coming on to post that. Very unfortunate that. Would advise any who have bet with 365 to cash him now