Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Lazy punting and I love it...haha! To add a couple of particularly lazy points, I was on him last year before his injury and it's the first race of the Festival and to potentially be on the Mullins favourite at a big price on a day I know I'll be there makes it far too tempting (I don't plan on laying much off if he gets that far). I haven't actually invested too much real money (about 4 points) but have been lucky to have him as the last leg of some cross sport multi's throughout the summer and topped up with some free bets at shorter prices. Like others I've been trying to find some cover bets but have been failing miserably. Long way to go....

 

[taylorch1990]

Just to chip in on this, if people are backing him purely on the quotes of Ricci, Mullins etc about him being the best novice last season could it not be argued that Mullins didn't exactly have the greatest novices last year. So being the best in the yard just means he's better than an average bunch?

 

[Hurricane fly]

If I’m guaranteed that Annamix works better than Getavord more than happy with my position, just because he flopped at the festival his performances at Fairyhouse and in the Moscow Flyer still put him in the top 3 2m novices last year for me

 

[taylorch1990]

If that's how highly you rate Getabird then that's fair enough but for me he's nowhere near top 3 over 2 mile last season. If people are on Annamix at 20-1 plus then fair enough I was just raising the point that there's holes in the main reason he's a short as he is now.

 

[Kevloaf]

If I’m guaranteed that Annamix works better than Getavord more than happy with my position, just because he flopped at the festival his performances at Fairyhouse and in the Moscow Flyer still put him in the top 3 2m novices last year for me

I have to admit, the comments saying he worked better than anything else last season and the fact they're bringing it up again and hoping that he "brings his homework to the track" is appealing. We know Mullins has schooling races and there is an element of putting 2 and 2 together because none of us have physically seen it - but that is the piece of the hype that I like. It's my reason for 'buying into the hype' (for all that I only have 2.5 pts staked / plus 2 pts win free bets)

 

[boopa]

I am full time. I make most of my money antepost. I think working out targets and picking races that will cut up is the easiest way to find value in markets. I've had plenty of non runners this year, one of my biggest positions on the flat ended up being a non runner due to injury, but over the long term I am compensated.

Others prefer the grind of daily betting. I can go weeks without a bet. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

 

[Kevloaf]

Has Aramon been overlooked? Won on the bridle, jumps well.

Probably has been overlooked slightly. It was a nice performance.

The jockey booking would be a negative in terms of what they thought beforehand... 33/1 isn't big enough to tempt me at the moment but there are worse bets at shorter prices in that race for damn sure.

 

[Kevloaf]

I was very tempted by Aramon looking at the form line with Triplicate 10/1 was too big at the weights. Put off by Mullins saying he'd be surprised if he was good enough.

and that would put me off too, even at 33/1

 

[JackieMoon33]

I am full time. I make most of my money antepost. I think working out targets and picking races that will cut up is the easiest way to find value in markets. I've had plenty of non runners this year, one of my biggest positions on the flat ended up being a non runner due to injury, but over the long term I am compensated.

Others prefer the grind of daily betting. I can go weeks without a bet. There's more than one way to skin a cat.

There certainly are a bunch of different approaches for sure. The two friends of mine would be betting more regularly for sure (when the right opportunity is available) and would argue that between now and Cheltenham, they’ll make way more money with less risk than they would having to wait another 5 months to cash in.

They both earn more than I do in the 9-5 daily grind but it takes skill, knowledge, confidence and discipline (plus a bit of luck).

 

[Kevloaf]

For me the key things to take out of it:

- Mullins horse unlikely to have been seen on the track yet. Whilst it's clear Annamix is THE hype horse now, he's had few of his horse out as he never does and that may be even longer with the weather.

- Henderson - look for his runners at the Newbury winter festival meeting in novice/maiden hurdles. Buevur D'Air ran there, as did Jenkins who at the time was the hype horse. Other good types in My Tent Or Yours, L'Ami Serge) and then secondly at Kempton on Boxing Day. Whilst right now I couldn't name a strong Supreme horse with imo Mister Fisher underwhelming, Pym even more and the rest of his novice hurdlers being more staying types, some could come through unknown.

To summarise the 12 horses above:

- 2 horses had ran in a bumper in their seasonal debut and weren't in the betting
- 3 Mullins runners had yet to run (nor had Douvan or Vautour yet) nor did Buveur D'Air
- Of the runners only Mengli Khan was at the top of the market at 12/1 (i think fav). The other horses had odds of at least 20/1 inc Altior


Think it's pretty crazy to be taking a view of how strong this race is already.

Think this got lost in the Annamix chatter - really good and interesting post. I guess you haven't taken much of a stance in the race yet?

I know the Henderson record in the race is something you're keen on. Have to watch the entries for sure around Christmas.

The ground is a good point too from earlier in the post.... this season may be different to others in that some horses (UK especially) are forced to clash... which might be why we end up thinking we have less candidates (because bubbles will inevitably be burst?)

 

[boopa]

and that would put me off too, even at 33/1

66/1 on the machine is big enough. Will be 2nd fav if it confirms form in the Royal Bond.

“That’s a huge improvement for him (Aramon) and he showed a lot more speed than we thought he had.

“You’d probably have to look at the Royal Bond (at Fairyhouse, December 2) now.

“He ran very green in Listowel and I asked Paul not to make as much use of him as he did there and see what he would do, so we are pleasantly surprised at how he took to the change of tactics.

“He lost his off-fore shoe and he got a nice little cut, as did Quick Grabim. It must have been a rougher race than we thought

 

[Kevloaf]

66/1 on the machine is big enough. Will be 2nd fav if it confirms form in the Royal Bond.

“That’s a huge improvement for him (Aramon) and he showed a lot more speed than we thought he had.

“You’d probably have to look at the Royal Bond (at Fairyhouse, December 2) now.

“He ran very green in Listowel and I asked Paul not to make as much use of him as he did there and see what he would do, so we are pleasantly surprised at how he took to the change of tactics.

“He lost his off-fore shoe and he got a nice little cut, as did Quick Grabim. It must have been a rougher race than we thought

Yes, I agree - 66/1 is certainly worth serious consideration. 33/1 to 66/1 is quite a difference. Price is everything, obviously.

 

[Scooby91]

66/1 on the machine is big enough. Will be 2nd fav if it confirms form in the Royal Bond.

“That’s a huge improvement for him (Aramon) and he showed a lot more speed than we thought he had.

“You’d probably have to look at the Royal Bond (at Fairyhouse, December 2) now.

“He ran very green in Listowel and I asked Paul not to make as much use of him as he did there and see what he would do, so we are pleasantly surprised at how he took to the change of tactics.

“He lost his off-fore shoe and he got a nice little cut, as did Quick Grabim. It must have been a rougher race than we thought

Huge ask to confirm form if indeed quick grabim does run. I'd personally expect royal rendezvous (very likely runner) to beat aramon in good fashion from the front.

However I couldn't knock anyone taking a chance at 66s what so ever. and I could well be wrong. Would shock me though.

 

[boopa]

I would expect the form to be reversed but I don't think it's a huge ask. Aramon travelled like a good horse and never came off the bridle.

 

[jack1092]

I really liked the look of Royal Rendezvous even if his form hasn't quite worked out fantastically. Not sure that entirely matters as he was streets ahead at Galway.

Aramon is typical of a Supreme Racing horse in that they can go underestimated- plenty of times Ruby doesn't pick a Supreme horse + wrongly so. I wouldn't be getting involved in Aramon right now but i was impressed with his slick jumping of a hurdle..

I don't know if it's been mentioned but Mullin's seems to have been very impressed with Mister Blue Sky, not many recent Supreme winners come of the flat though..

 

[charlie]

Glad I took 50/1 about Quick Grabim. That mistake two out cost him at Navan. Ruby rode him like he knew he was in their 'top bracket of our better novice hurdlers' and he is definitely an improving horse with plenty of experience, which I like for horses heading to the supreme. They have had the Royal Bond in sight for a while which will obviously be key for determining where they go after that.

 

[archie]

Quick Grabim has made race ending mistakes twice in five outings. Aramon was worth more than the victory margin the last time and I'd be hopeful that he can confirm the form if/when they meet again.
As far as the Supreme is concerned, the price is about right for both of them.

 

[Scooby91]

Glad I took 50/1 about Quick Grabim. That mistake two out cost him at Navan. Ruby rode him like he knew he was in their 'top bracket of our better novice hurdlers' and he is definitely an improving horse with plenty of experience, which I like for horses heading to the supreme. They have had the Royal Bond in sight for a while which will obviously be key for determining where they go after that.

It's a good bet imo.
He's not a definite for the royal bond. According to mullins in his rp tour.

 

[Scooby91]

I really liked the look of Royal Rendezvous even if his form hasn't quite worked out fantastically. Not sure that entirely matters as he was streets ahead at Galway.

Aramon is typical of a Supreme Racing horse in that they can go underestimated- plenty of times Ruby doesn't pick a Supreme horse + wrongly so. I wouldn't be getting involved in Aramon right now but i was impressed with his slick jumping of a hurdle..

I don't know if it's been mentioned but Mullin's seems to have been very impressed with Mister Blue Sky, not many recent Supreme winners come of the flat though..

He's beat trees but he's priced accordingly , I really like him. worth noting Willie said they may go up in trip in the new year. I personally think he'll make the choice for them by showing plenty of pace in the royal bond and winning. He's keen enough to be going further and will force there hand imo

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He's beat trees but he's priced accordingly , I really like him. worth noting Willie said they may go up in trip in the new year. I personally think he'll make the choice for them by showing plenty of pace in the royal bond and winning. He's keen enough to be going further and will force there hand imo

For me it's noticeable that more horses from the Royal Bond step up in trip (and be successful) than those that stay at 2m, if he is one Willie thinks will go up in trip it would seem logical, IMO, to run him in this race, and I too would expect him to go well.

I put something in the thread earlier about keeping an eye out for a potential Albert Bartlett runner from this race, which is all I will be looking for when watching the race.