Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

Brace Yourself could be decent as well. Not sure about 2m?? thought he was more of a Ballymore Horse. We shall see on Sunday.

Yeah not just between the Mullins runners. You're a fan of both Meade's aren't you. Expecting a big run from Brace Yourself?

 

[doctorwu]

Yeah not just between the Mullins runners. You're a fan of both Meade's aren't you. Expecting a big run from Brace Yourself?

I do like him a lot although I had him down as a Ballymore horse. Its just the trainer I'm not so keen on. Meade has another called Dream Conti that could be very good.

 

[jack1092]

I was at Down Royal for Brace Yourself's win- i was massively taken by him. Defi Bleu for me was the horse to take from it.

However, he was a decent bumper horse + as you doc, he could be better upped in trip.

Why are you not a fan of Meade ? Flying so far this year.

 

[doctorwu]

I was at Down Royal for Brace Yourself's win- i was massively taken by him. Defi Bleu for me was the horse to take from it.

However, he was a decent bumper horse + as you doc, he could be better upped in trip.

Why are you not a fan of Meade ? Flying so far this year.

Mixture of things really. He blows hot & cold. He sure is hot at the moment, except when I back them :sorrow:He's not a trainer I have much luck with. Remember Ned buntline in the Grand Annual ridden for a glory ride from Carberry failed to get up by a head.

 

[Kevloaf]

Are 'we' in danger of getting a little bit too excited about the Royal Bond runners/winners in terms of Festival prospects?

1994 Gamblolling Doc (PU in Supreme)
1995 Thats My Man (never ran again)
1996 Istabraq (Won The Ballymore)
1997 Feathered Leader (missed Cheltenham)
1998 Alexander Banquet (7th in Ballymore)
1999 Moscow Flyer (missed Cheltenham)
2000 Liss A Paoraigh (missed Cheltenham)
2001 Like A Butterfly (Won Supreme at 7/4f
2002 Hardy Eustace (won the Ballymore)
2003 Newmill (missed Cheltenham)
2004 Wild Passion (2nd in Supreme at 10/1)
2005 Iktitaf (missed Cheltenham)
2006 Hide The Evidence (15th in Supreme at 9/1)
2007 Muirhead (12th at 8/1C in Supreme)
2008 Hurricane Fly (skipped the festival)
2009 Dunguib (3rd in Supreme 4/5 fav)
2010 Zaidpour (7th at 11/1 in a hot Supreme)
2011 Sous les Cieux (5th at 11/2 in Neptune)
2012 Jezki (3rd in Supreme at 5/1)
2013 The Tullow Tank (missed the festival)
2014 Nichols Canyon (3rd at 7/2f in Neptune)
2015 Long Dog (Down as UR, very say)
2016 Airlie Beach (14th in Mares Novice Hurdle at 4/1)
2017 Mengli Khan (3rd in Supreme)


16 years since we last had a winner from the race... 24 renewals, 3 winners and 2 of them went on to be Champion Hurdlers...

3 winners
5 places (One 2nd and Four 3rd)
8 didn't go on to run

Last 10 years though (which in my opinion would be much more relevant)

0 winner
4x 3rd places
2 didn't run

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Are 'we' in danger of getting a little bit too excited about the Royal Bond runners/winners in terms of Festival prospects?

1994 Gamblolling Doc (PU in Supreme)
1995 Thats My Man (never ran again)
1996 Istabraq (Won The Ballymore)
1997 Feathered Leader (missed Cheltenham)
1998 Alexander Banquet (7th in Ballymore)
1999 Moscow Flyer (missed Cheltenham)
2000 Liss A Paoraigh (missed Cheltenham)
2001 Like A Butterfly (Won Supreme at 7/4f
2002 Hardy Eustace (won the Ballymore)
2003 Newmill (missed Cheltenham)
2004 Wild Passion (2nd in Supreme at 10/1)
2005 Iktitaf (missed Cheltenham)
2006 Hide The Evidence (15th in Supreme at 9/1)
2007 Muirhead (12th at 8/1C in Supreme)
2008 Hurricane Fly (skipped the festival)
2009 Dunguib (3rd in Supreme 4/5 fav)
2010 Zaidpour (7th at 11/1 in a hot Supreme)
2011 Sous les Cieux (5th at 11/2 in Neptune)
2012 Jezki (3rd in Supreme at 5/1)
2013 The Tullow Tank (missed the festival)
2014 Nichols Canyon (3rd at 7/2f in Neptune)
2015 Long Dog (Down as UR, very say)
2016 Airlie Beach (14th in Mares Novice Hurdle at 4/1)
2017 Mengli Khan (3rd in Supreme)


16 years since we last had a winner from the race... 24 renewals, 3 winners and 2 of them went on to be Champion Hurdlers...

3 winners
5 places (One 2nd and Four 3rd)
8 didn't go on to run

Last 10 years though (which in my opinion would be much more relevant)

0 winner
4x 3rd places
2 didn't run

Yeah, done a post about this in this thread from last 5 runnings of the race, where it actually has worked out better for the Albert Bartlett than the Supreme.

Glad you done the extra leg work and took it further back as I never had the time to do so

 

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, done a post about this in this thread from last 5 runnings of the race, where it actually has worked out better for the Albert Bartlett than the Supreme.

Glad you done the extra leg work and took it further back as I never had the time to do so

Got less of a life than you clearly

Yeah that weas interesting, I think it's harder to predict where the horses will run before seeing the race, but your post I'll be taking a look at after it to see if they miss anything in terms of ones stepping up.

 

[Scooby91]

It was Adjali and Energuemene. What can possibly go wrong. Dont normally do multiples but put them in a few: (after time alert)

Small ew L15 Energumene, Adjali, Chate Niege, Santini

Slightly bigger ew L31 Energumene, Adjali, Santini, IFTCF, Claimintakingforgan (JLT)

1/5 of a point Trico Energumene, Adjali, Epatante (mares nov)

If any of them landed (be good to just get a run for my money), the mortgage would be paid off and a nice fast car or a slow horse would be purchased!!!!

"Never Adapt" The drums are beating lads and lasses..... seems that peoples wallets are also!!!!!"

"The race looks really hot for Never Adapt but the drums are beating about her from Seven Barrows her work has been A1
Scooby it was someone from the yard who sits and steers them (in races). Agree this looks tough though Saturday, she will need to be good to take this"


*******
Sure it wasn't never adapt? There's no shame in it.

 

[archie]

Labaik refused to race but was technically in the Royal Bond field in 2016 before going on to win this race in 2017.

By and large though, I'd agree that any race this early in the season is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of where they'll be in 3 months time.

 

[jack1092]

Quick Grabim 8s for Sunday could be alright odds.

Royal Rendezvous at the head of the market with Sancta Simona- not sure i'd have the latter there..wasn't a strong mares race last time + whilst she's bound to improve she's short.

 

[Scooby91]

Quick Grabim 8s for Sunday could be alright odds.

Royal Rendezvous at the head of the market with Sancta Simona- not sure i'd have the latter there..wasn't a strong mares race last time + whilst she's bound to improve she's short.

Be careful with that. Unless you think he's running.
Tells me he dosent and rubys on royal rendezvous who's a fair machine.

 

[jack1092]

Be careful with that. Unless you think he's running.
Tells me he dosent and rubys on royal rendezvous who's a fair machine.

Yeah i think RR the likeliest winner- Willie has ran a few before though + to me it seems likely he'd end up here with one of the Mullins boys on board.

I reckon he could spring a surprise, just thought he'd be shorter than Aramon regardless of last run. Maybe that is a sign he's not running then!

 

[charlie]

I haven't completely given up on Raya Time just yet. The story coming into the season was fairly compelling, treading an identical path as last years winner Summerville Boy. Made a couple of small mistakes and one shocking race ending mistake on debut at Down Royal where I thought he impressed to finish let alone finish 5th. The fact he continued to run on after that makes me think there's an engine there but jumping will need to be significantly better. Entered over 2m2f at Fairyhouse on Sunday.

 

[Morley Street]

Good boost to the Eldorado Allen form at Hereford today with the Greatrex horse doing it very easily in the 1.05. 33s looks big with Tizzard plotting a path to this and with the owners comments very bullish.

 

[doctorwu]

Good boost to the Eldorado Allen form at Hereford today with the Greatrex horse doing it very easily in the 1.05. 33s looks big with Tizzard plotting a path to this and with the owners comments very bullish.

Very interesting MS. He looked as if he'd go up in trip. Are you confident he'll stay at 2m?? Thanks IA.

 

[Scooby91]

Commander of fleet goes for the royal bond according to Elliot.

 

[Morley Street]

You can never be confident but the Tolworth is the plan, so I would see no need to step up in trip unless it’s evident he needs to. Terry Warner seems to be comparing him to the Rooster so I’m sure he’d be keen to stay down the 2 mile route.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Commander of fleet goes for the royal bond according to Elliot.

Interesting. Might back him for the Bartlett now then :highly_amused:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

You can never be confident but the Tolworth is the plan, so I would see no need to step up in trip unless it’s evident he needs to. Terry Warner seems to be comparing him to the Rooster so I’m sure he’d be keen to stay down the 2 mile route.

Well hopefully he won't take quite as long as the Rooster did to get to the top

 

[mayo]

Good boost to the Eldorado Allen form at Hereford today with the Greatrex horse doing it very easily in the 1.05. 33s looks big with Tizzard plotting a path to this and with the owners comments very bullish.

Are you confident this will be the target MS