Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

I'm going to have to go green in this now.

Was always an option, can't see any reason now to now!

 

[Kevloaf]

Looks like Angel's Breath will be in his away kit, the Simonsig colours of Ronnie Bartlett.

A good idea, better than a different hat!

 

[Don Cossack]

15.3/1 for Aramon - 7 places

With Klassical Dream being backed to almost favourite...

Almost 10 pts difference in price....

Way too big....

Impossible not to back Aramon 7 places if you like Klassical Dream?!

I feel like I'm missing something here. To my mind they should be a lot closer, PT barely touched Aramon when Ruby won - compare to the previous race when Ruby gave Aramon three or four cracks and he went right away.

 

[Quevega]

I feel like I'm missing something here. To my mind they should be a lot closer, PT barely touched Aramon when Ruby won - compare to the previous race when Ruby gave Aramon three or four cracks and he went right away.

It's ground, stiffer track and jockey related.

 

[Scooby91]

I feel like I'm missing something here. To my mind they should be a lot closer, PT barely touched Aramon when Ruby won - compare to the previous race when Ruby gave Aramon three or four cracks and he went right away.

It was good to firm. Aramon would have been as fit as a flea and all his best form is on good ground. His form on soft is bang average. Over both disciplines.

Klassical dream wants cut in the ground. Only had the 1 run
This season under his belt, and He did very well to win in the conditions.
with conditions now in his favour, another run under his belt, he should be leaving aramon behind.

 

[AnFiieLD.]

It was good to firm. Aramon would have been as fit as a flea and all his best form is on good ground. His form on soft is bang average. Over both disciplines.

Klassical dream wants cut in the ground. Only had the 1 run
This season under his belt, and He did very well to win in the conditions.
with conditions now in his favour, another run under his belt, he should be leaving aramon behind.

Spot on. Ground conditions are seriously in his favour. They were slightly surprised KD won the last day on good.

 

[Kevloaf]

It's a strange season when....

The horse that was favourite had been favourite for over nearly 2 years before his debut and flopped.

To be replaced by a horse that on hurdles debut only jumped 4 obstacles

To be replaced by a horse winning a handicap despite handicap winners having an abysmal record following up in this race

To then be replaced by the former favourite who didn't even win his next start but the money has been coming ever since



I'm not sure 7 places are enough :highly_amused:

 

[Big Chac]

With all the rain that's coming I'm considering cashing out Aramon for full stake and just investing it elsewhere. Surely KD improves past him given he gets his ground now and then there's the English to consider.

Anyone still fancy Aramon?.....im talking win only btw

 

[Innoko]

NdB

Angels Breath
There is no stand-out going into the race and you can clearly make a case for a few of these, but I’d be very keen on his chances. He did his last piece of work on Friday and we are all set now. We have always liked him ever since he joined us after winning his only point in Ireland, and he was smooth and very professional when winning on his hurdling debut in a Grade 2 at Ascot. To win first time up in that grade takes some doing. His run-up to Kempton last time wasn’t ideal, as we had that period of deep snow in Lambourn and he was one of the horses that had to have an unexpected flu jab. And I am sure that was a factor in his defeat in the Dovecote though, as I have said previously, I was pretty delighted by his run there. He was a bit keen early on and definitely took a blow when I asked him to go about his business up the straight, before getting his second wind and finishing off his race really well. I don’t want to sound over-confident, as that would be misleading, but I expect him to be placed at least and I think you will see a different horse from the one that you saw at Kempton. He has definitely come on appreciably for that, and a stronger-run race on softer ground will suit him a lot better. You need a tough sort for this race, and he fits the bill, all right, for all that this is just his third hurdle start.

 

[opatcho]

I know Nicholls doesn’t do that well in this, however Grand Sancy could run a big one here. He’s one of a few which good form and I think the Tolworth is the race to pick from when going is soft at the festival

Back at 11/1 with my risk free skybet

Angels Breath remains my main selection for this

 

[Kevloaf]

I know everyone will see these at some stage, but exciting that the Racing Post comments are there - feels VERY CLOSE now:

Verdict<section class="ui-accordion__row js-accordion__row RC-accordion__raceVerdictRow js-accordion__row_active" data-accordion-row="raceVerdict">
Betfair Hurdle form tends to stand up well in this race and AL DANCER, a commanding winner of that rearranged handicap, has solid claims.

</section> <section class="ui-accordion__row js-accordion__row RC-accordion__diomedCommentsRow js-accordion__row_active" data-accordion-row="diomedComments"> Comments
</section>
Al Dancer 4-4 over hurdles; smooth win in Betfair Hurdle last time; everything points to big run

Angels Breath Beaten in the Grade 2 Dovecote last time but has serious potential for champion trainer

Aramon Leopardstown Grade 1 winner but form needs to go to the next level to prevail today

Beaufort West Again showed promise last time but he's 0-4 under rules and looks out of his depth here

Brandon Castle 3-3 over hurdles (all at Plumpton); much tougher task but he's an interesting outsider

Elixir De Nutz Grade 1 Tolworth winner; admirable battling qualities will serve him well

Fakir D'oudairies Seriously impressive in juvenile Grade 2 here last time; gets 8lb 4yo allowance

Felix Desjy Comfortable win in Punchestown Grade 2 latest; needs more but no surprise to see bold show

Grand Sancy Grade 2 Kingwell win; can give another good account but others may have greater potential

Itchy Feet Has raced only on good going, but each-way claims on his promising autumn form

Klassical Dream Made it 2-2 for yard when winning Leopardstown Grade 1 latest; represents Mullins/Walsh

Mister Fisher Won Haydock Grade 2 latest; Angels Breath seems yard's main hope, but each-way claims

Normal Norman Won Musselburgh handicap in January but outclassed in Kempton Grade 2 latest
The Big Bite Has won 4 of his 6 starts, but behind Mister Fisher latest; sizeable improvement is needed

The Flying Sofa Placed on first three hurdle starts but same outcome is highly unlikely today

Thomas Darby This return to a stiff track could play to his strengths; not ruled out each-way

Tokay Dokey Won first three before mid-race fall in Dovecote; tough test, but has potential

Vision D'honneur Something to find based on Irish form, but Elliott runners always worth a second look here

 

[Kevloaf]

From Sporting Life:

The 2019 Cheltenham Festival kicks-off with a potentially top-class renewal of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Re-routed from the Triumph Hurdle, the 4yo Fakir D'Oudairies has looked the part since joining Joseph O'Brien so enters the mix in receipt of weight from his rivals. Nicky Henderson boasts a very strong hand with Angels Breath and Mister Fisher whilst Al Dancer (unbeaten over hurdles) is another to consider, along with the soft ground winner Elixir De Nutz. However, having saddled five previous winners of this race (three since 2013), preference is for the Willie Mullins-trained KLASSICAL DREAM who ticks the vast majority of required boxes.

1. Klassical Dream
2. Mister Fisher
3. Fakir D'Oudairies

 

[TCH29]

I’m in the ridiculous situation of having a large book on this race, with lots of multiples stemming from it, but i’m pretty much uncovered on Al Dancer and FdO. If those could not not win, that’d be lovely. Still personally think it’s between Angels Breath and Klassical Dream.

 

[mayo]

I have Klassical covered via DRF double win bet but AB by far my best winner.

FDO left out completely and have scraps at decent prices on EDN and Thomas.

Ahead of the books but not confident about the outcome.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Mister Fisher out to 16s with 365

 

[charlie]

Mister Fisher out to 16s with 365

Cheers, il have some of that

 

[The King Pimm]

I don’t FdR or Grand Sancy covered at the moment as I have no confidence they’ll win but my other selections have drifted a bit

 

[Roaring Bull ROARING BULL]

Money for Brandon Castle...

 

[AnFiieLD.]

Money for Brandon Castle...

He’s a front runner as well as Felix Desjy and Elixir. Can’t have him in this. One at a bigger price i’d be more interested in would be The Big Bite for last years winning connections. Not beat far by Mister Fisher last time giving weight at a course that wasn’t to suit

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Wondering if Scooby will be sitting there with his copy/paste notes from the Fred Winter (I think) thread last season about Klassical Dream for tomorrow....

Would have to go down as one of the best shouts on this forum, certainly in my time on here, if it were to happen.