Stayers Hurdle 2019

[Quevega]

Yes I would fancy Kilbricken Storm to beat Paisley Park. KS absolutely stuffed PP in the Albert Bartlett last year and I see no different outcome in this regardless of how the race pans out.

Bit Literal, Donnyboy.
I think it's fair to say that a fair bit of water has gone under the bridge since then.

 

[DonnyBoy]

Bit Literal, Donnyboy.
I think it's fair to say that a fair bit of water has gone under the bridge since then.

Form is form though. Course form in particular in a quality race. The difference in odds is ridiculous.

 

[Kevloaf]

Form is form though. Course form in particular in a quality race. The difference in odds is ridiculous.

Form is Form?


That's the funniest thing I've ever heard.

 

[DonnyBoy]

Form is Form?

Go on spew some ratings and numbers at me.. Just for a change

 

[Kevloaf]

If you think Paisley Park ran to form in the Albert Bartlett, then I have nothing to say.

I'll ignore you from now on and save you the time.

Kilbricken Storm 45/1 ew
Paisley Park 25/1 ew

 

[Quevega]

Form is form though. Course form in particular in a quality race. The difference in odds is ridiculous.

Did you not see the cleeve hurdle Donnyboy.
I stuck up for you last time, and now you're being silly.
And I've backed Kilbricken at 45-1.
He could be a danger to Paisley, but Paisley is a very different animal this season.

 

[DonnyBoy]

You can say that about most races if you look deep enough into any collateral form, you still have to make a judgement about an outcome next time should they meet again.

 

[Kevloaf]

You can say that about most races if you look deep enough into any collateral form, you still have to make a judgement about an outcome next time should they meet again.

Why is Paisley Park more likely to run like he did in the Albert Bartlett, than he did in the Cleeve Hurdle?

 

[Quevega]

You can say that about most races if you look deep enough into any collateral form, you still have to make a judgement about an outcome next time should they meet again.

But you surely look at all the evidence and not just the only time they raced each other.
Unless you're saying Kilbricken stared him out the last time.

 

[DonnyBoy]

Why is Paisley Park more likely to run like he did in the Albert Bartlett, than he did in the Cleeve Hurdle?

I never it would. I said I see KS winning however it pans out and that includes even if PP runs like he did in the Cleeve hurdle. Just a judgement call

 

[Kevloaf]

I never it would. I said I see KS winning however it pans out and that includes even if PP runs like he did in the Cleeve hurdle. Just a judgement call

:encouragement: Ah okay, get you now.

Fair enough, hope he does....been a massive price

 

[DonnyBoy]

:encouragement: Ah okay, get you now.

Fair enough, hope he does....been a massive price

Exactly.. maybe 1 day we might agree on a horse .. Maybe haha

 

[Kevloaf]

Exactly.. maybe 1 day we might agree on a horse .. Maybe haha

:highly_amused: If we all agreed there would be no value.

Maybe it's because I have a soft spot for Sheffield and I assume you're from Doncaster


...and to be fair, I do like Kilbricken Storm, if you search back you'll see I have backed him at 45/1 so I'll be cheering him on with you

 

[DonnyBoy]

You're spot on i'm from Cusworth. Yeah I see your on the horse as well. May the best horse win as long as its KS..

 

[Old Vic]

Kilbricken Storm the value here now imo. The price of everything behind him in last years stayers tells its own story. Punchestown run pretty solid too.

 

[charlie]

I am going to take Paisley Park on. It was impossible not to be impressed by what he did in the Cleeve, but I am inclined to agree with Boopa that he was flattered by the pace collapse. The JLT Hurdle was absolutely rubbish and when West Approach is repeatedly chasing you home in graded races it says more about the caliber of the race than it does enhance your own credentials. Paisley Park is obviously the right favourite and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if he took another step forward to win this on the snaff, but he is going to have to vs the likes of Faugheen, Supasundae and Bacardys, who will be a different ball game to leaving the likes of West Approach in behind. Obviously Paisley Park has done more than enough this season to be favourite, but at 5/4 I would far rather back Bacardy’s EW at 16/1. Not only do I think he is capable of placing, I think he is capable of winning. Reminiscent of the ABP V PP RSA fall debate, I am convinced Bacardy’s would have given Penhill a serious question had he not falled at the last, and if you fancied Penill (as I did) at 6/1 how can you not like Bacardy’s at 16’s. Same trainer and solid enough Cheltenham experience. He was 3rd in the Bumper is 2016. He was badly hampered in the Neptune to the point where his chance was robbed and he was pulled up. Victim of circumstance that day. The ground he was making up last year up that hill was eye catching to say the least and I think he has excellent chances to hit the frame. Paisley Park will be punted off the boards like an unbeatable good thing, but I can see him getting turned over and wouldn’t be surprised if a horse like Supasundae or Bacardys were to do it.

 

[SamuelP]

I am going to take Paisley Park on. It was impossible not to be impressed by what he did in the Cleeve, but I am inclined to agree with Boopa that he was flattered by the pace collapse. The JLT Hurdle was absolutely rubbish and when West Approach is repeatedly chasing you home in graded races it says more about the caliber of the race than it does enhance your own credentials. Paisley Park is obviously the right favourite and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if he took another step forward to win this on the snaff, but he is going to have to vs the likes of Faugheen, Supasundae and Bacardys, who will be a different ball game to leaving the likes of West Approach in behind. Obviously Paisley Park has done more than enough this season to be favourite, but at 5/4 I would far rather back Bacardy’s EW at 16/1. Not only do I think he is capable of placing, I think he is capable of winning. Reminiscent of the ABP V PP RSA fall debate, I am convinced Bacardy’s would have given Penhill a serious question had he not falled at the last, and if you fancied Penill (as I did) at 6/1 how can you not like Bacardy’s at 16’s. Same trainer and solid enough Cheltenham experience. He was 3rd in the Bumper is 2016. He was badly hampered in the Neptune to the point where his chance was robbed and he was pulled up. Victim of circumstance that day. The ground he was making up last year up that hill was eye catching to say the least and I think he has excellent chances to hit the frame. Paisley Park will be punted off the boards like an unbeatable good thing, but I can see him getting turned over and wouldn’t be surprised if a horse like Supasundae or Bacardys were to do it.

This is a good, well-balanced view that seems to be missing in the preview nights..instead of the headline grabbing lay of the week comments regarding Paisley Park.
Hoping for a big run from Bacardys too, took 33s when bookies went NRNB

 

[taylorch1990]

This is a race I'm not in a good place with its unlikely any of my ante post bets will run. So looking at it unbiased by my own bets I can't help but feel West Approach is overpriced at 33s. He's twice finished second to PP and in both races finished in front of Top Notch and Black Op who are both half the price. I do think PP is the likely winner but I can't have Faugheen at all he's too short on what he's shown this season and Supasundae doesn't stay 3 miles. So I think there's definitely value in looking at a few at bigger odds who could run into a place.

 

[charlie]

This is a race I'm not in a good place with its unlikely any of my ante post bets will run. So looking at it unbiased by my own bets I can't help but feel West Approach is overpriced at 33s. He's twice finished second to PP and in both races finished in front of Top Notch and Black Op who are both half the price. I do think PP is the likely winner but I can't have Faugheen at all he's too short on what he's shown this season and Supasundae doesn't stay 3 miles. So I think there's definitely value in looking at a few at bigger odds who could run into a place.

Lost by half a length to Apples Jade over 3m in the Christmas Hurdle and 2 lengths behind Penhill last year beating 2 grade 1 winners who had won over over 3m. I don't know where the notion Supasundae doesn't stay 3 miles comes from, but I'm not buying it

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Lost by half a length to Apples Jade over 3m in the Christmas Hurdle and 2 lengths behind Penhill last year beating 2 grade 1 winners who had won over over 3m. I don't know where the notion Supasundae doesn't stay 3 miles comes from, but I'm not buying it

It's not true at all. He just manages to find one too good over 3m that's all.