Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Albert Bartlett trend is a rubbish trend isn't it? Surely a horse can't be ruled out because it has won the AB. It wouldn't put me off Penhill anyway.

UKWIMH had his chance last year and it takes a slight leap of faith to think he is going to be good enough now imo.

 

[loveracing]

Penhills form is rock solid so if, and it’s a huge if, they have him in top shape first time up then I understand the support. He finished 7 lengths ahead of wholestone in last year’s Bartlett and the race may well suit one who picks them off late

Heads up and pile in!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The Albert Bartlett trend is a rubbish trend isn't it? Surely a horse can't be ruled out because it has won the AB. It wouldn't put me off Penhill anyway.

UKWIMH had his chance last year and it takes a slight leap of faith to think he is going to be good enough now imo.

I agree, I have been drawn back round to Penhill now.

 

[Westo97]

I loved Harry last year, but he's got the 10 year old and Albert Bartlett trends going against him this year and the back of a poorer season too. I keep getting tempted by the price, but no I can't be tempted.

L'Ami Serge - I detest this horse. So many trebles lost on the last leg watching him get done late on

I totally get why people don't like L'Ami Serge. I look back on the Skybet Chase race again and I think the horse was putting it in more than ever (for him) in that. Russell had to get into him earlier than ideal due to way the race played out, and whilst he still looked a little awkward, I think it was trying.

I think the interesting angle for me is could Sam Spinner soften up the field a little. He is going to gallop and grind from the front and he might just soften up others who sit tracking. L'Ami can cruise at any speed over fences/hurdles and if held onto until as late as possible, then I think he becomes a serious player here.

 

[Kevloaf]

Funny shape to it this race. I can't have Harry at all, I was massively against him in this last year when everything went perfectly for him throughout the season and he was not good enough then, I struggle to see why he will be good enough a year on.
I also think some like to re-write history a little with Harry, I have heard a few put him up off the back of this years renewal not having a horse of Nichols Canyon calibre in the field. That may be true, but Lil Rockefeller beat Harry by 3L in this last year but is never referenced, I think some have it in their head Harry was a close 2nd last year. If any horse is the forgotten value its Lil Rockefeller at double Harry's price!

I'm shaping the race around Bacardys and L'Ami Serge for my sins. Would rather take on those at the head of the market, Bacardys is the dark one whilst L'Ami Serge is the most talented horse in the race who I hope may put it all together on the day.

What is wrong with Sam Spinner? Just the price compared to L'ami?

 

[Kevloaf]

The Albert Bartlett trend is a rubbish trend isn't it? Surely a horse can't be ruled out because it has won the AB. It wouldn't put me off Penhill anyway.

UKWIMH had his chance last year and it takes a slight leap of faith to think he is going to be good enough now imo.

I agree, I have been drawn back round to Penhill now.

completely agree on the AB stat.

But backing Penhill takes too much faith at a price that isn't generous enough and hasn't been all season.

 

[archie]

Tony Bloom is rumoured to being buying all the hospitality he can find for next Thursday.

 

[Westo97]

What is wrong with Sam Spinner? Just the price compared to L'ami?

I just think its a massive step up for Sam Spinner. Realistically, its well fancied and favourite off the back of one very strong performance. He beat a lot of its competitors here that day and its hard to crab that performance, but that's all its got in the book really. It won nicely at Haydock time before, but that quality of race is a long way off this and heavy ground around Haydock has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Its also never been to Cheltenham, whilst I would not call this a negative at this stage, the most similar type of track it has ran at is Chepstow where it ran well, but it got beat by Court Minstrel off similar weights. I appreciate its improved since then, but this was only 3 runs back and bar the Ascot performance, all the others mean he should be a 33s shot.

I think it will probably run well and can see it in the first four, I am not ruling it out winning, but 4/1 for a Grade 1 at a course and occasion its never experienced and all off the back of one form line means I would have to look elsewhere.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tony Bloom is rumoured to being buying all the hospitality he can find for next Thursday.

For Kansas City Chief?

I'm coming round to the idea of Penhill, having not fancied him at all earlier in the season.
He won the AB a lot easier than I remembered when I watched it back and the more I listen to connections, the more that this sounds like it has been the plan all along. Win the Stayers then have a flat campaign?

 

[robith]

The Albert Bartlett trend is a rubbish trend isn't it? Surely a horse can't be ruled out because it has won the AB. It wouldn't put me off Penhill anyway.

UKWIMH had his chance last year and it takes a slight leap of faith to think he is going to be good enough now imo.

You can use trends to fit whatever skewed world view you have. I'm not keen on him, so it's additional evidence in the locker!

 

[Quevega]

I just think its a massive step up for Sam Spinner. Realistically, its well fancied and favourite off the back of one very strong performance. He beat a lot of its competitors here that day and its hard to crab that performance, but that's all its got in the book really. It won nicely at Haydock time before, but that quality of race is a long way off this and heavy ground around Haydock has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Its also never been to Cheltenham, whilst I would not call this a negative at this stage, the most similar type of track it has ran at is Chepstow where it ran well, but it got beat by Court Minstrel off similar weights. I appreciate its improved since then, but this was only 3 runs back and bar the Ascot performance, all the others mean he should be a 33s shot.

I think it will probably run well and can see it in the first four, I am not ruling it out winning, but 4/1 for a Grade 1 at a course and occasion its never experienced and all off the back of one form line means I would have to look elsewhere.

Agree with this.
He lost in a handicap off 136, and jumped poorly.
He then hosed up at Haydock off 139 (a track when it's heavy that seems to throw up increasingly freaky results)
Then he won a grade one in nice style and beat Lami serge, Harry, Worlds end, thomas campbell and rockerfella.

I backed him every time, and I do think he has a chance in this, but 5-1 is not the right price for me. There are another 6 in the top ten of the betting that he's never met and they have strong claims, most have course/grade 1 and festival form and are with leading trainers.
If he is 7s or 8s on the morning (and I think he will be if the ground drys) I may well back him.
Having said that, if it's softer and he gets tipped up the 5s might be best available.

 

[squiggsy68]

Fwiw the Timeform boys were very strongly behind SS on their preview the other night, with the proviso about Colliver's lack of big race experience and being able to set the right fractions. Bacardys was their other angle 'at a price' and wouldn't rule out Penhill.

They had definite concerns about Supasundae from a stamina point of view and didn't rate the 3m Aintree form that highly as a proper staying test.

 

[archie]

Patrick gets the best tune out of Bacardys so jockey bookings will be interesting.

 

[Robbante]

I'm still with Yanworth in this. The 3m Aintree race might not have been a test of stamina but i have long been of the opinion that the horse is a real stayer in the making. He could have done no more that day than win the race, and i think if they had gone an extra couple of furlongs then he would have still been travelling well enough to outbattle them up the stretch. The problem will be if he's given too much to do. I think Sam Spinner got the perfect ride the day he beat L'ami Serge... setting those perfect fractions again on a different track might prove a lot tougher, so i'd be looking for a horse that can travel well not too far off the pace to pick them off up the hill. L'ami Serge won't be far away, but if Yanworth is in contention at the last then he'll see them off for me

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Patrick gets the best tune out of Bacardys so jockey bookings will be interesting.

Hopefully Paul gets the chance to ride Penhill again, he deserves to after last years success on board him, and it wouldn't put me off one bit.

 

[AnFiieLD.]

I've backed Sam Spinner for this but I am very wary of Penhill. Owned by none other than Tony Bloom who is very shrewd indeed. He had a big winner with Roger Charlton in a big flat handicap with a horse that was off the track for over a year this season and was well punted. I'm inclined to have a small cover on him, and I think it's likely we could see a plunge on this horse in the market come off time.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I genuinely think Sam Spinner sets this up for Penhill. Remember, it was only L'ami Serge that wouldn't go past Sam Spinner, and we know L'ami is an absolute monkey, but he was travelling all over him and, as per his reputation before him, found nil off the bridle, you won't have that problem with a horse like Penhill. I think Yanworth will probably travel just as well as Penhill too, so for me it is between them, I am going off Supasundae at the moment.

 

[Kevloaf]

I just think its a massive step up for Sam Spinner. Realistically, its well fancied and favourite off the back of one very strong performance. He beat a lot of its competitors here that day and its hard to crab that performance, but that's all its got in the book really. It won nicely at Haydock time before, but that quality of race is a long way off this and heavy ground around Haydock has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Its also never been to Cheltenham, whilst I would not call this a negative at this stage, the most similar type of track it has ran at is Chepstow where it ran well, but it got beat by Court Minstrel off similar weights. I appreciate its improved since then, but this was only 3 runs back and bar the Ascot performance, all the others mean he should be a 33s shot.

I think it will probably run well and can see it in the first four, I am not ruling it out winning, but 4/1 for a Grade 1 at a course and occasion its never experienced and all off the back of one form line means I would have to look elsewhere.

They're all fair points.

The crux of Sam Spinner does come down to how much you rate/ trust/ believe the Long walk hurdle form.

I am inclined to, but can see that it is currently one insulated piece of form.

I still think its better than anything Lami has done and also its literally better than the no run at all from Penhill

 

[robith]

I have to concede I'm left baffled by the enthusiasm for Penhill - I couldn't be backing a horse who hasn't run for almost a year making a reappearance at Cheltenham

 

[finbarrk]

Patrick is keen on Bacardys.