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Stayers Hurdle 2018

1. Is Beer Goggles being overlooked at 25/1 .... short as 14/1 in places?

2. I don't think Nichols Canyon lost too much (if anything) in defeat this weekend, certainly compared to UNWIMH, especially when 3m brought out such improvement for NC and he's so unexposed over that trip. I don't care how good NC has been 1st time out in the past, Apple's Jade race fit put in her best ever performance.... so happy with NC still, has anyone else taken that view?

3. Which is a worse price..... 16/1 L'Ami Serge or 16/1 Lil Rockerfeller.?
 
Kevloaf said:
1. Is Beer Goggles being overlooked at 25/1 .... short as 14/1 in places?

2. I don't think Nichols Canyon lost too much (if anything) in defeat this weekend, certainly compared to UNWIMH, especially when 3m brought out such improvement for NC and he's so unexposed over that trip. I don't care how good NC has been 1st time out in the past, Apple's Jade race fit put in her best ever performance.... so happy with NC still, has anyone else taken that view?

3. Which is a worse price..... 16/1 L'Ami Serge or 16/1 Lil Rockerfeller.?
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I dont think NC or Harry lost much at the weekend.berr goggles ran in a handicap of a huge weight the time before and is plenty fit enough. The problem is if your Geraghty or any of the other riders you wouldn't be keeping too much of an eye on the 40/1 shot who's gone off in front, your more worried about running the race of who's a round you.

Beer goggles is obviously a good horse he's won plenty this year but they won't make the same mistake again, harry would follow him and I could see the form over turned off levels. There's worse 25/1 shots in the world though.

Lami serge / lil rockerfeller.
Lami serge shaped very well in that race but tbh if you backed him next time out every time he shaped well, you'd be in the poorhouse. He has a habit of that especially on soft to heavy.
 
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I can't decide whether or not to put Beer Goggles in now at 25/1.... might have a deeper look at my situation actually.....

At the moment I have 13 pts staked(AND free bet's) and would return 18 pts minimum (5 pts profit) if any of:

Nichols Canyon (In numerous multiples)
UNWIMH (biggest single return, although NC would MUCH MORE LIKELY be better for me for the festival as a whole)
Apples Jade
Cilaos Emery
Lil Rockerfeller
L'ami Serge - actually only 10 pts back for this horse
VVM
Thistlecrack - only 12 pts back for this horse
Barters Hill
Supasundae

...were to win...which isn't bad....

Looking at oddschecker and the ones I haven't backed....
Penhill (not back until after Xmas - no rush at 12/1)
Thomas Campbell (Not interested at 16/1 at all)
Yanworth (Target far too unlikely for me ATM at 20/1)
Faugheen & Yorkhill (would want 999/1 for either, can't see any situation where the former runs, the latter NC would need to be injured and even then highly unlikely)
The Worlds End (ranges between 10/1 and 25/1 - tempted perhaps
Beer Goggles (Improving and beat UNWMH but probably wouldn't again tempted 25/1?
Sam Spinner (25/1 I was at Haydock and the ground is making me want to put a line through everything that day)
The New One (25/1 tempted perhaps but happy to leave for now... unexposed at the trip but is a Grade 2 horse even at best?)
Jezki (33/1 ... might run tempted perhaps ... although chance surely gone last year)
Wholestone 33/1 (looks well held on form although I like him....)
Let's Dance and Colins Sister.... former will surely go OLGB, latter well held...
Cole Harden 50/1 ... got to stop somewhere!

...................

No rush to act tonight I suppose, nothing likely to happen for a week or so.
 
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Kevloaf said:
I can't decide whether or not to put Beer Goggles in now at 25/1.... might have a deeper look at my situation actually.....

At the moment I have 13 pts staked(AND free bet's) and would return 18 pts minimum (5 pts profit) if any of:

Nichols Canyon (In numerous multiples)
UNWIMH (biggest single return, although NC would MUCH MORE LIKELY be better for me for the festival as a whole)
Apples Jade
Cilaos Emery
Lil Rockerfeller
L'ami Serge - actually only 10 pts back for this horse
VVM
Thistlecrack - only 12 pts back for this horse
Barters Hill
Supasundae

...were to win...which isn't bad....

Looking at oddschecker and the ones I haven't backed....
Penhill (not back until after Xmas - no rush at 12/1)
Thomas Campbell (Not interested at 16/1 at all)
Yanworth (Target far too unlikely for me ATM at 20/1)
Faugheen & Yorkhill (would want 999/1 for either, can't see any situation where the former runs, the latter NC would need to be injured and even then highly unlikely)
The Worlds End (ranges between 10/1 and 25/1 - tempted perhaps
Beer Goggles (Improving and beat UNWMH but probably wouldn't again tempted 25/1?
Sam Spinner (25/1 I was at Haydock and the ground is making me want to put a line through everything that day)
The New One (25/1 tempted perhaps but happy to leave for now... unexposed at the trip but is a Grade 2 horse even at best?)
Jezki (33/1 ... might run tempted perhaps ... although chance surely gone last year)
Wholestone 33/1 (looks well held on form although I like him....)
Let's Dance and Colins Sister.... former will surely go OLGB, latter well held...
Cole Harden 50/1 ... got to stop somewhere!

...................

No rush to act tonight I suppose, nothing likely to happen for a week or so.
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I seee the race a bit differently to yourself Kev. I'd give jezki no chance.
Id also give the new one zero chance. Dosent stay 3 miles.

Nichols canyon 7/1
Unwimh 9/1
Cilaos emery 85.0
Let's dance 103.0
Vroum vroum mag 210.0
Tin soldier 400.0
Thistle crack 55.0 < 29.0
Supasundae ew 20/1 backed today.

Will go there with complete confidence with that book.
 
You don't know TNO doesn't stay 3 miles yet....:p and I haven't backed either to be fair, and don't think I will for the time-being.

What are you seeing differently? I've just got a couple of others covered .... much closer to the time I'll lay off my stake on the ones I don't fancy..... that is the plan at this stage anyway :devilish:
 
Jeez, I'm well off you guys, NC & UNWIMH have been split stakes of mine from day 1, built up a nice pot on them 2 and probably won't go on any 'cover' options until nearer to be honest.
 
Kevloaf said:
You don't know TNO doesn't stay 3 miles yet....:p and I haven't backed either to be fair, and don't think I will for the time-being.

What are you seeing differently? I've just got a couple of others covered .... much closer to the time I'll lay off my stake on the ones I don't fancy..... that is the plan at this stage anyway :devilish:
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I don't think the new one sees out 2 1/2 very well at all.
Apple's jade aside.
I see cilaos emery as an unlikely runner.
I see let's dance as a likely runner.
Vroum vroum unlikely yet possible can't leave he untouched at the price. Same as thistle crack.
I really fancy supasundae ew.
Couldn't have lami serge unless it came up very soft/ heavy then I would fancy him.
I diddnt back lil Rockefeller at 33s so I can't back him now when he's done nothing that I diddnt already know.
Nichols canyon leading player.
Harry there or there abouts.
Rightly or wrongly, i'd rule out everything else completely.

If anyones backed lil Rockefeller ew at 33s or 25s they've got a good bet there to be fair.

**********
Yanworth and bacardys is give a solid chance to if they are back over hurdles. Likewise tin soldier who's made for this sort of race.

I'd be worried about penhill making this race.
A while ago Tony bloom said he had a nasty injury that ruled j out of the Melbourne cup and he diddnt sound optimistic on the prognosis at all.
 
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Scooby91 said:
I don't think the new one sees out 2 1/2 very well at all.
Apple's jade aside.
I see cilaos emery as an unlikely runner.
I see let's dance as a likely runner.
Vroum vroum unlikely yet possible can't leave he untouched at the price. Same as thistle crack.
I really fancy supasundae ew.
Couldn't have lami serge unless it came up very soft/ heavy then I would fancy him.
I diddnt back lil Rockefeller at 33s so I can't back him now when he's done nothing that I diddnt already know.
Nichols canyon leading player.
Harry there or there abouts.
Rightly or wrongly, i'd rule out everything else completely.

If anyones backed lil Rockefeller ew at 33s or 25s they've got a good bet there to be fair.
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Not going to debate The New One as he really isn't on my mind - whether it be staying the trip OR having the class, answer is the same :D
CE was on the exchanges obviously so happy enough to lose that stake.
Let's Dance I actually think is rubbish.:devilish: 2nd season novice beating novices in the Mares race last year I don't think counts for much... appreciate she stays but I couldn't see her being a factor in any race, but the Mullins stable tour did suggest OLGB is her target....and I can't have LD being better than VVM over any trip, so much happier to have VVM in the book at bigger prices.

I will not win if L'ami Serge wins. Supasundae I also added today! Managed to get Lil Rockerfeller at the 25s which is alright.

THe Worlds End at 25/1 might be an over-reaction, certainly can see him shortening again?
 
Just added .
La bague au roi 370.0
She wants 3 miles. I do like her would get the mares allowance. Likely runner but wants a bit of cut.

Jers girl 340.0
No chance of beating Apple's jade in the mares
Gets the mares allowance her form reads well in relation to this race over a trip fluffed the last against la bague au roi last time over 3 miles.

Sutton place 330.0
Had a set back about 5- 6 weeks ago. No idea if he's back in full work. If he's not back till end of January they might want to retain his novive status over fences and he'd have a cracking chance here.
 
Scooby91 said:
Just added .
La bague au roi 370.0
She wants 3 miles. I do like her would get the mares allowance. Likely runner but wants a bit of cut.

Jers girl 340.0
No chance of beating Apple's jade in the mares
Gets the mares allowance her form reads well in relation to this race over a trip fluffed the last against la bague au roi last time over 3 miles.

Sutton place 330.0
Had a set back about 5- 6 weeks ago. No idea if he's back in full work. If he's not back till end of January they might want to retain his novive status over fences and he'd have a cracking chance here.
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Haha I backed Sutton Place about 5 minutes ago :D
 
Anyone want to request Minella Awards to be added to the exchanges for this race on my behalf? :devilish:
 
Just a thought. If Apples Jade is '100% for the Mares', how come she was entered for the Long Walk Hurdle?
 
archie said:
Just a thought. If Apples Jade is '100% for the Mares', how come she was entered for the Long Walk Hurdle?
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...because there are races to win between now and March I'd suggest.

Certainly more likely to come here than the CH, but even if she won the Long Walk Hurdle, the Mares race will still be a G1 and STILL be easier?
 
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