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Stayers Hurdle 2018

Denmania said:
Listening to Nicky Henderson on On The Line.

Would any of you boys give a squeek at the prices to L’Ami Serge in this ?
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I did have a free £5 on, I might have even made a case for him being unexposed quite early on in this thread.... but right now, I'd have switched to the opinion that 20/1 is actually a bit short.... Not keen now. Open mind as he probably is quite unexposed still, but has a lot to prove?

Welcome :)
 
Denmania said:
Listening to Nicky Henderson on On The Line.

Would any of you boys give a squeek at the prices to L’Ami Serge in this ?
Click to expand...

I'm sure a few people will. If it came up very soft I'd give him a shout. I personally think he's a much better horse on very soft ground regardless of the distance. And although he won a really nice pot, he diddnt have to beat much in France where he got his conditions. I couldn't see him troubling the front 2 in the market. But they all have to still make it there.
 
Scooby91 said:
I'm sure a few people will. If it came up very soft I'd give him a shout. I personally think he's a much better horse on very soft ground regardless of the distance. And although he won a really nice pot, he diddnt have to beat much in France where he got his conditions. I couldn't see him troubling the front 2 in the market. But they all have to still make it there.
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Agreed he would be ground dependant! Just trying to look for a decent priced alternative to the top two.
Think a free bet might be the way to go 👍
 
If you want one that will shorten and I can say it now as iv just taken the last what I want at 29.0 been backing form 55.0 down.*
Is thistlecrack for the stayers.*

Atm about 10% he goes there.*
In my eyes he's an odds on chance to win the long distance hurdle against UNWIMH.*
I'd rate him a 6/4 chance with a run for the stayers now.*

10% chance × 6/4 is about 16.0.*
When he wins the long distance hurdle he will shorten right up even though he's not going to the stayers.*
If he dosent go close in the king george or has a minor setback anytime after the long walk. That 10% chance will increase.

And I don't want to be sweating on a book of
Nichols canyon 7/1
Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1*
Let's dance 103.0
Win only.
 
Yeah I got a mate with the same view Scooby, trouble is I think they got unlucky with Cue Card and maybe left his GC challenge a year too late and this really has to be the last chance for Thistlecrack, so if the horse is fit and healthy in March and we all hope he is, I can only see them heading for the blue ribband....
 
Istabraq said:
Yeah I got a mate with the same view Scooby, trouble is I think they got unlucky with Cue Card and maybe left his GC challenge a year too late and this really has to be the last chance for Thistlecrack, so if the horse is fit and healthy in March and we all hope he is, I can only see them heading for the blue ribband....
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Should head GC I'd agree. The owners seem game.

If/ when he wins the long distance hurdle and if he diddnt win the king george or his race after. that's some call to make though when you know you'd have a championship race in the bag . Ricci had a somewhat siimilar choice..

Also agree with you may only get one chance in a gold cup.

If I was the owner I'm sorry to say I'd go for the stayers.
Understandably the snooks may be 100% certain the opposite.
 
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The trouble is he's been there/done that Scooby, winning a Stayers by 12l or whatever it was with Scu waving to the crowd was the biggest demolition I can remember in the race (and I've seen the last 30 odd), so going back to win something you already won doesn't hold the same appeal when you just might be good enough to win the jackpot...
 
Would be an even money shot for the stayers although he'd have a tougher race this time than the year he won?

Maybe if he beats unowhatimeanharry easily (not match fit but getting weight) and falls in the King George there is a chance? Or gets soundly beaten in the KG?

Not a tempting enough price for me at the moment ... but I'd be happy to absolutely wade in at evens if he did end up here.... If he beats harry.
 
I don't think getting chinned is reason enough Kev, I think he's have to show real jumping flaws to be seen back over timber, could be wrong though....
 
Istabraq said:
I don't think getting chinned is reason enough Kev, I think he's have to show real jumping flaws to be seen back over timber, could be wrong though....
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Chinned- GC
Stuffed- stayers?

Im inclined to agree though ... but fair enough taking the chance at big odds scooby.
 
Sam Spinner wow that was impressive , McCoy and Fitz opened mouth at his performance afterwards tells you we witnessed something special. Hadnt got in my stayers hurdle satchel ...yet. Nice for unknown trainer to have a decent horse , good luck my friend .
 
The Beast said:
Sam Spinner wow that was impressive , McCoy and Fitz opened mouth at his performance afterwards tells you we witnessed something special. Hadnt got in my stayers hurdle satchel ...yet. Nice for unknown trainer to have a decent horse , good luck my friend .
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Have to admit, on course, despite backing it, I wouldn't want to get carried away! A lot in his favour today. Stayers hurdle a huge leap on this for me
 
Kevloaf said:
Have to admit, on course, despite backing it, I wouldn't want to get carried away! A lot in his favour today. Stayers hurdle a huge leap on this for me
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Agree Kev , turned a handicap in to a rout ,would have won carrying 2 st extra. 20s on betfair ,less elsewhere. Thought Rockafella was good but took Lami Sege out of race. Gave winner 6lb but wally of a jockey followed wrong horse , done me for treble on day.
 
Really struggling to get a grip on where I stand for this race. Always seems a lot of mixed messages with regards form for the staying hurdling division, and I just feel that it won't be the two horse race (Nichols vs UNWIMH) that it's easy to conclude. Penhill very interesting for me if he comes back after xmas in decent form. Also the long distance hurdle at Newbury on Friday should be informative
 
Thistle crack at even money is Christmas come early today. Glad iv got him covered for this as i guarantee people start hyping him up to come back for this race at some point.
 
Scooby91 said:
Thistle crack at even money is Christmas come early today. Glad iv got him covered for this as i guarantee people start hyping him up to come back for this race at some point.
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I wonder if UNWIMH will get him off the bridle! Not seen that over hurdles have we... I think he might, won't be surprised with any result as thistle can't be 100% today
 
Kevloaf said:
I wonder if UNWIMH will get him off the bridle! Not seen that over hurdles have we... I think he might, won't be surprised with any result as thistle can't be 100% today
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I have all the respect in the world for Harry but I don't see him beating thistlecrack today giving him 6 pounds. It is the best opposition thistlecrack has faced over hurdles but hes always looked to have plenty in the tank.
 
Assuming the Gold Cup is still the aim for Thistlecrack this year then I think UNWIMH should take this today. If King George is the next step for Thistlecrack then they're not going to put everything on the line in this, and will view it merely as a sharpener. If Thistlecrack is off the bridle, all out, and getting on top towards the end then I might push the button on him for the Stayers
 
WOW! What a complete boil over that was! Both Thistlecrack and UNWIMH beat, we taking that as literal form or still enough to work on for UNWIMH for this race at the festival?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
WOW! What a complete boil over that was! Both Thistlecrack and UNWIMH beat, we taking that as literal form or still enough to work on for UNWIMH for this race at the festival?
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Beer goggles so far off my radar i wouldn't like too comment decisively yet. UNWIMH beat the rest easily and readily enough but I'd expect Nichols Canyon isn't too worried in his box.

Line through thistle, if he did revert to hurdles I'd not even take this race into account ...
 
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