• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

State of the Nation: 2 Months to Go

- How are you feeling about the festival?

It's constantly on my mind! Already driving people around me mad. They don't know what they're missing :highly_amused:

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

I've never really got on at fancy prices before so there's a small sense of achievement there. Trying not to be too optimistic though.

- Where are you strong?

Triumph and Albert Bartlett probably my strongest.

- Where are you weak?

The bloody JLT! Can't get my head around it at all. And still kicking myself for not getting 50s about Notebook for the Arkle when I had the chance.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

I started with the antepost earlier this time. Could all blow up in my face but thankfully have a fair fair big prices so only need a couple to come in. Also never used my weekly free bets for Cheltenham before, so that's quite nice to have on the side this time around.

- How will you be watching?

Pub Tuesday, at the course Wednesday, with family Thursday then on my own at home Friday. And try not to burn out too quickly!!
 
Looking forward to it countdown well and truly on

Went for a different approach this year trixies didn’t work out for last year so trying trebles this year with a few hotpots and smaller stakes

Envoi Allen @ big prices rolling onto multi’s klassical dream 8/1 envoi Allen 10/1 minella indo 16/1 presenting percy 14/1 Yankee

Klassical dream backed in multi praying for buckets of rain :highly_amused:

Haven’t touched the handicaps as got shafted last year with horses ending up in different races will definitely waiting till NRNB before betting this year

Time booked off work will be in the pub most days hopefully celebrating
 
Can't sleep as usual and when I do I dream of horses instead of Love Island girls. Looking forward to the greatest week ever !

Current position is the best ive ever been in in 38 years of goibg. Not counting any chickens yet but......is that an egg cracking ?...


Think I'm very strong in all non HCP races on the first day especially.

Light inJLT, GC, Triumph and all handicaps but will sort that during week

Laid off the multiples this year and not done any ew's. Backed singles only in 17 races all around £20. Approx 3/4 in each race which will all win a minimum of £250 and upwards and currently have 14 favs in those races.

Going up on Monday afternoon as usual with 4 mates. Staying in centre in Prem Inn until the Friday evening, Best Mate enclosure every day as always. Hitting Montpellier bars and restaurants big time. Can't wait. Bring it on. I'm giving the bookies a pasting this year.....said that every year......one day eh!!!!
 
Last edited:
- How are you feeling about the festival?
Excited as always, DRF should be fantastic though and would love it to get more publicity.
However the fez is naturally the highlight of the season. Hasn’t really clicked that I’m away for the two weeks before it so not sure if I will get to a preview show, and might miss some offers. However my brother works in a bookies so I’m sure there will be plenty of Cheltenham related conversation!

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

Every time I look at my book I flip flop, at times I’m really happy at times I’m depressed thinking antepost has been a waste of time! I try to see antepost as away of saving me money on the day however I’m confident of having atleast 3-4 winners in it which will put me comfortably up and on my way to my goal for profit.

I take some positions on well fancied horses such as Champ who I just don’t rate as a winner so won’t back regardless of if I’m book building or not. It might seem a glaring hole to some but there are some horses I just don’t want inside. Eptante being another one

Very interested in seeing where some of my any race horses end up - if at all for example McFabulous

- Where are you strong?
4Miler with Carefully Selected and Champagne Classic at 20+/1
Very happy with my QMCC and Chanpion Hurdle position - where I again am taking strong opinion on Altior/DDS and Eptante
RSA could be strong depending on where some any race horses go as well

Looking at it a lot of my better positions are from preseason


- Where are you weak?
At times I absolutely hate my Supreme book. Definitely missed the boat on Edwardstone, champion Hurdle is reliant on an oft injured horse being fit after an injury which when you look at it like that is definitely weak.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
Much more involved this year than last, so far I’ve had a lot less hit, w.g last year I was heavily invested in Hollographic early on, and the weather played havoc with it. Still along way to go until we can sigh a sigh of relief with regards to non runners


- How will you be watching?
Will be in the Club Enclosure Tues/Wed, last year a friend managed to get me into hospitality on the Thursday and hopeful to get it again this year. Viewing wise it’s not great but it’s the festival and it’s free. Friday will infront of the tv, have to travel up to the north east in the morning so will be a long day.
 
8 weeks to the Festival


- How are you feeling about the festival?

It does take up a lot of enjoyable study, and energy, to unearth selections and staking decisions, and at the moment it’s the early stages of mining for handicap opportunities. Handicap hurdles, particularly over 2M are my speciality, not so much handicap chases which can be carnage with so many runners and fences.
I probably should get more balance back doing other stuff, that would probably come around 3 weeks before the Festival, in five weeks time, when there is no more new form and performances to follow, it’s all there to be seen.



- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

I’m nothing but happy with what I have got so far, no point being sad, is there? and I am well aware that profits can come from a variety of betting decisions, made at any time. If something looks good now, then place the bet now.

Two years ago was my record profit there and a lot came from NRNB from the Sunday before the Festival, a hatful of winners, at terrific prices, so funds saved ready to check out the markets on the last Sunday before the meeting.


- Where are you strong?

I think the forum generally has good positions currently in the Bartlett.
I have what I think are the right horses in the Gold Cup covered, but will lose if WPM wins.
The Arkle will only have a few with chances and I have backed and still like three of the market leaders.


- Where are you weak?

It’s not weak, more to do with entry dates for handicaps and not formed too many ideas on them yet, apart from two for the Boodles, one for Pertemps, one for the Coral Cup and one for the Martin Pipe - I told you I specialise in tracking down the handicap hurdle winners. :victorious:

Champion Hurdle looks weak for me though, but let’s wait and see a few days or weeks, and things could get brighter.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

I have had more time this year to back early, and the carry it forward through the weeks, tweaking here and there and trying to build a solid betting position across the week without backing everything that shows a modicum of form and shortens.
I am looking for possible winners that shorten, and not to cash-out.

I now use cash-out firms whenever possible, just in case a selections form or health takes a hit, something I’ve learned on the job through this season, and will do more of from the start next year.

Multis looking good, plus a move to put horses I like, at good odds, in doubles along with a select bunch of other horses.
At the moment for example I have
Pic D’Orhy at 40/1 for the Coral Cup in small doubles with Notebook, A Plus Tard, Faugheen, Allmankind, Defi Du Seuil and Champagne Classic.

Captain Guinness at 20/1 for the Supreme with seven others (priced from 10/1 to 25/1) in small doubles only, hoping that in the first race of the Festival I have the winner and that spirals out through the whole meeting into decent bets going on to those seven horses.

All of these could be cashed out for full value at the moment if decide to.

One pre-Festival version of those doubles will be decided this weekend, as I took the 13/2 Cornerstone Lad to win at Haydock on Saturday in small doubles with The Cashel Man 25/1 (Coral Cup), Never Adapt 20/1 (County) and Festival D’Ex 33/1 (Bartlett) - again my preference for betting on hurdles shines through :triumphant:

The jury’s out on these small double punts with an anchor horse, but it’s not a large stake and I am trialling it as an alternative to larger multi bets (less bets than a Yankee) though not exclusively.


- How will you be watching?

I reckon it’s my 15th successive Festival, and as usual I will be staying in the same accommodation as all the previous ones.
I know the Festival-goers are proud of their attendance, a real badge of honour, and for me it’s like “Christmas for grown-ups”.

If we count each day attending the Festival like 1 international football cap, I am above 50, moving towards 60 caps this year.

Used to winning there, the last two years much bigger than the previous years, and hope to be in the position by the end of day one, or two, to know I’m in profit again for the whole week. :highly_amused:
 
Last edited:
How are you feeling about the festival?
Buzzing. Best week of the year. And my uni mate I live with is now into the racing and is coming for the week rather than it just be me like in previous years.

How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
In a good position overall. Used every free bet over the year on Cheltenham antepost. Plenty of good free bets and enough juicy prices to feel really good.

Where are you strong?
Like so many people, I’ve got fancy prices on Envoi Allen. However, he has been my biggest bet on my Cheltenham diary as a 12 point stake ranging between 14s and 5s. Any race and Ballymore. Mares Novice is a good race too at this stage like it will be for most of us on here (thanks again Scooby with that 33s Lamarckise). Also confident in my position in the Foxhunters (decent bet on Wishing And Hoping at 22/1 and plenty of free bets on Hazel Hill at around 10s - 8s.

Where are you weak?
Champion Hurdle I really need a turnaround from Klassical Dream or Saldier to get me out of jail. Decided very very early to make a free bet book on the Arkle as I didn’t really fancy much but it was very open with big prices everywhere. Despite having a fair few at nice prices, I have nothing on Notebook. So the water is murky there.

Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
Honestly.. no. I took my own advice last year to not get involved on the supreme until really confident and held back before backing Abacadabras. Also used the any race market more early doors and have some cracking prices because of it.

How will you be watching?
I’ll be there for the week. With my mate. Really looking forward to it. As a side note, I’m an Ipswich fan (just got back from Oxford away tonight as it goes and off to Tranmere away on Saturday) and I stay in Bristol for the Festival and get the train in and out across the week. Anyway, by complete chance.. the last two seasons Ipswich have played Bristol City in cheltneham week (Saturday in 2018 and Tuesday in 2019). With our relegation, how incredibly unlikely was it that for the Saturday after Cheltenham ends, Ipswich would have Bristol Rovers away. So I’ll be staying an extra night and going to that one too. Should be a brilliant week.
 
How are you feeling about the festival?

Really looking forward to it, but will mostly be cheering you guys here on, as I've had nowhere near enough time to follow racing as much this year.



How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

Got about 1/4 of the money invested I have done over the last few years, which is just as well, because I spend 2 1/2 weeks in Vegas last month, and that just about covered what I'd bet through the week :highly_amused:



Where are you strong?

Triceps



Where are you weak?

Legs are awful, have to use a mobility scooter in Vegas :witless:



Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

Not scattergunned as much, which is probably only because I haven't bet much, lol.



How will you be watching?

In my office at home. Unfortunately while working...
 
-Really looking forward to it-March can’t come soon enough. This is my first year visiting this forum, and thus far I’ve sat quietly taking it all in and finding my way around. I’ve found some great info on here, that has lead to what look like some tasty AP bets, so thanks.

-Pretty good. Managed to get some good prices early doors and have enjoyed watching them move in. I’ve done the majority with 365, so anything I haven’t quite liked the look of, have used the option of cash out.

-Similar to most EA at decent prices. Have a few of the market leaders at nice prices. Thanks to whoever tipped up Latest Exhibition on here @ 66s!

-Not necessarily weak, but I don’t have much in the way of handicaps. Tend to leave these till the week for the extra places. My other potential weakness is multiples, I’m a sucker for a trixie/L15 which last year didn’t work so well.

-We are heading to the festival for the first time this year. Heading down Monday, tues-wed at the races. Watch it in the pubs of Cheltenham Thurs (if anyone has any recommendations of where to go send them over), before heading back to Cumbria Thursday night. Friday will be watching it local.
 
How are you feeling about the festival?
Strangely not as excited as usual, it was still the first week I booked off work but I think mainly because at the moment I have no plans to actually attend (although that will no doubt change and will go at least one day) for the first time in a few years and also the jumps season itself just hasn’t seemed as exciting so far

How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
About average; a few decent prices and at the moment none of them out injured which is the main thing but there’s plenty time for that!

Where are you strong?
Potentially the Ballymore; had a spell of doing a lot of doubles on an antepost horse plus Envoi Allen, if any of them won on the Tuesday or if he wins on the Wednesday will be potential there for a lot of decent returns

Where are you weak?
Potentially the Ballymore if Envoi doesn’t make the festival or they shoot for the stars and go Champion Hurdle!! Other than that usually try and get some decent runners on the Tuesday as it’s a day I usually attend; this year don’t really have anything in the Supreme unless Shiskin bolts up today or Fly Smart eventually appears and the Arkle is very similar unless Melon goes for it which it sounds very much like he won’t

Anything you’ve done differently?
Tried to do a few more cross sport doubles this year I.e on a Saturday instead of having 2pts on a football team I have 1pt win and 1pt double with a Cheltenham horse, has worked reasonably well to be honest, something to look at even more from the summer onwards next year with cricket bets probably

How will you be watching?
At the moment in the pub all 4 days but if Envoi Allen is a confirmed runner on the Wednesday will probably at least do a day trip then. Group of friends going on the Thursday so potentially then as well but it’s my least favourite day
 
Taken me ages to get around to answering this:

- How are you feeling about the festival?

I am pretty active (understatement?) on here all year round and I class that as part of my enjoyment, for me it's about much more than just those 4 days...

The weekend before, and the Monday, when I spend just every single waking second analysing, adjusting, filling in my spreadsheets, watching form over and over, listening to previews and posting on here is my favourite bit... it's the point where everything is perfect and nothing else matters.

Overall, it's definitely not the most exciting year in terms of clashes and horses I want to watch, but that's just natural for things to go in cycles.

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

Pretty well. I'd guess more people would want to swap their ante post positions with me, than I would with them.... Gavin Lynch being the main one :devilish:

- Where are you strong?

Done this long enough to know that this can very much blow up in your face, but I have a number of races where the current fav is in my book at over 10x the current price...on day one for example, that's true of the Supreme, Arkle and CH, making 5x the price in the NH Chase look poor :highly_amused:

QMCC I've got by the balls as well, loads really.

- Where are you weak?

In terms of strictly 'making a book' probably the Gold Cup, and I've not really got a fancy in it yet which hasn't helped.
People may view my Bumper and Triumph positions as weak too relative to the rest of my 'book' as I don't have the current favs backed...which is fair enough.

- Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

Cut down on multiples would be the main one.
Not gone too bold on any one horse - when the inevitable injuries come, there isn't a single horse that can really hurt me so far.
Saving some money for trifecta's....

- How will you be watching?

Will attend Wednesday as it looks the day with the potential star (Envoi) along with Altior and Tiger Roll... I want to be part of the day if either make more history!

Could be tempted there on the Tuesday, was going to go with Jono but he's mugged me off to go with his wife (what a sap).

Thursday, a few mates always go up to Liverpool and watch it in the bars there (usually around Paddy's day celebrations)

Friday at home. Always.

Saturday, Uttoxeter :)
 
How are you feeling about the festival?
Extremely excited, its on my mind a lot. Spend much of my time reading this site. You are a good bunch lol.

How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
Much smaller than most years. My wife gave birth to a baby girl in November, our first, and at nearly 9 weeks old priorities had to change for this year. I'm enjoying the build up just as much however. This is the only reason I haven't posted my own antepost diary, it wouldn't make for exciting read compared to what you lads are up to.


Where are you strong?
I do have some decent positions. Happy with the mares novice having Willies 2 market leaders at big prices. I've the national hunt chase looking well with Carefully selected 20s, Champagne classic 16s and early doors 33s. And that's a race I don't usually go strong on antepost. Happy with the RSA having covered Champ at double figures and BOD at big prices. I firmly believe Champ will win.
Happy with Envoi Allen double figures any race and I've several nice doubles on Envoi Allen and Paisley park. For a while I was throwing 2 points off each winning bet onto that double and banking some then for myself.


Where are you weak?
At this stage I don't consider myself weak in any areas. There are several races I don't have a single bet on and I'm more than happy to wait. For instance I don't have a bet on the Gold cup. I'm sure it will be a competitive market on the day and i'm more than happy to wait.
Different approaches for different people, I know some would be fretting at the very idea at this moment to have missed big prices in some races, but it all depends on your style of approach.


Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
3 things
1) reduced my overall number of bets - baby needs come first (they aren't cheap lol).
2) reduced my multiples big time. Had a lot of doubles, trebles and hail Marys last year. Concentrated doubles on Envoi Allen with Paisley park. Nothing else of note.
3) avoided the triumph like the plague. Last year I got too involved trying to find the "one" and buying into what that could be. Its not my favourite race, I don't need to back many in this. Happy to wait and pull the trigger closer to the time or on the day.


How will you be watching?
On course Tuesday, pub Wed. Home Thurs and see how I'm feeling Friday.


One final note i'd like to add from reading these posts. Try to enjoy the build up folks, don't fret if you think you have missed a price. Don't feel like you have to have every angle or every race covered or its all been a failure. Enjoy the racing itself and everything that goes with it. Sometimes its nice to go into the race and cheer on some of your favourite against the field. Hope that doesn't come across preachy, at the end of the day I hope we all have a brilliant festival (and profitable one to top it all off!)
 
Congratulations KSS, very happy for you and the mrs.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:


How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
Much smaller than most years. My wife gave birth to a baby girl in November, our first, and at nearly 9 weeks old priorities had to change for this year. I'm enjoying the build up just as much however. This is the only reason I haven't posted my own antepost diary, it wouldn't make for exciting read compared to what you lads are up to.
Click to expand...


Congrats KSS, I also joined the club just before Christmas :D I'm also in the same situation with priorities etc... which is why I used as many free bets as possible this time around
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Congrats KSS, I also joined the club just before Christmas :D I'm also in the same situation with priorities etc... which is why I used as many free bets as possible this time around
Click to expand...

You lads are smart timing babies before Xmas. Gives you 3/4 months of full commitment before a deserved 3/4 full days of Cheltenham!
 
How are you feeling about the festival?
I am as excited as ever, my favourite week of the year without doubt. My boss has managed to juggle my shifts around the festival this year (not that it would have mattered as I work in the bookies anyway) and this is the first time I've properly bet antepost for it.

How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
Pretty happy to be fair, I have a lot of the favourites at double figure prices all placed with free bets. There are areas I feel are weak or where the bet looks cooked already but I have 8 weeks to fix that.

Where are you strong?
In terms of having a few horses in the race it is without doubt the Supreme Novices. If its a generalisation then it'd have to be the fact I have the majority of favourites at double figures, the fact they are all with free bets (ranging from £5-£20) means I only have to hit one winner for a festival profit. I'm optimistic.

Where are you weak?
Again its subjective as it can be seen as a positive but for the first few months building my book I was putting all my eggs in the Envoi Allen (Ballymore) basket. I've overindulged the multiples of which EA features in a significant number so if he goes elsewhere or doesn't win the Ballymore, my potential profit goes down significantly.

Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
As I've said, this year I've decided to put all my focus onto the festival. Any time there is a promotion, I will look to exploit it with what I believe is a solid qualifying bet, most win without giving me much of a return but the key for me is to get the free bet credited. I have accounts with most of the bookies and I have also utilised my wife's accounts where possible too. I will no doubt put a little bit of real cash down but that'll only be for daft things like placepot etc. I'll see how this year plays out but I intend to do the same again over the next 12 months rather than wasting a free bet 5 minutes after it has been credited. I'm getting more enjoyment just from having them on and watching market support for a lot of them than I ever had watching it go down in some random seller.

How will you be watching?
I can never usually commit to attending as it's one time where we can put in holidays (GN being the other) so it'll be a home thing for me. I could be tempted to drive down if Envoi wins the Ballymore although I can't guarantee my wife would know of my whereabouts for a few days lol.
 
Thanks folks :) and congrats CoD! Hope you are getting more sleep than me, mines a wee rascal at night lol.

Ha we arent so slow Charlie. All brownie points being saved until Cheltenham!
 
Before giving my own response, can I just say how much I’m enjoying the forum and reading peoples’ viewpoints on NH racing and in particular the Cheltenham Festival. This thread has received a great response from members and gives us an insight into how other members think/bet. The excitement and anticipation of the great event that is Cheltenham is evident in the responses above and is contagious.

- How are you feeling about the festival?
I’m really looking forward to it and although I have very few ante post bets, I’m still very much into it and trying to analyse the championship races by watching Racing TV and reading this forum and as much racing news as possible.

- How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
I’m a very small punter and only bet small money. The only ante post bets, without NRNB, that I have are very small ones on Sharjah for the Champion Hurdle after his first run when he was well beaten. I was hoping it was because he was in need of the run and I felt odds of around 25-1 were generous. I have a reasonable bet on Pentland Hills as well in the Champion Hurdle at 8-1.
Since Skybet NRNB came in on all races, I did a few life changing six and seven horse accumulators. They normally end up as losing bets but I still love doing them just in case I get them all right sometime. You have to dream :) – none of these are on handicaps races.

- Where are you strong?Where are you weak?

My thinking on these two questions is that I’d be only guessing with my answers. It could be the races where you’re depending on one horse only which transpire to be the strong ones with the benefit of hindsight. Having the favourites covered at higher prices than current prices might look good on paper at this point but end up being losing positions.

Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

I’ve tried not to get too entrenched with particular horses and keep an open mind until closer to the big day. I have tried not to bet ante post where NRNB is not available as it’s very frustrating when your horse doesn’t run or worse still runs in a different race.


- How will you be watching?
I have travelled on 3 occasions when it was a three day festival and I loved the experience. Gold Cup day is a no no for me though in future as it’s too busy and packed. This year, for 3 days I’ll be watching at home with my 2 lads, who are equally keen on the racing and love a punt. On the 4th day, not sure which day yet, I’ll be watching in the pub with a few mates – will try to have all my betting done before and stay away from the nearby bookies when under the influence :)
My strategy is to have decent bets on the non-handicap races and I never study the handicaps as I find them too difficult. Sometimes, on the Betfair exchanges I cover the biggest outsiders in a handicap maybe up to half the field with a set small bet on each horse.
 
How are you feeling about the Festival? Third year of taking this antepost malarkey seriously and still finding it highly enjoyable

How do you feel your current position is stacking up? I mirror my bets exactly for my best mate that I go with and have access to all his accounts as a result. I give him a regular mark out of 10 update. Before Xmas I said around 8.5, after a torrid festive period down to 6 and now I’d say back up to a 7/10. Losing a 365 account half way through the season was tough but a bit more liquidity on Betfair this year to lay bad bets off and a lot less non runners at this stage is meaning I’m hanging in there. On the non-runners I’m fully bracing myself for a spate over the next few weeks

Where are you strong, where are you weak? National Hunt Chase will be pivotal to my week, struggling with the Arkle for the second season running

Anything you are doing differently, is it working? Going to have a better balance this year between antepost and NRNB and between championship races and handicaps, still significantly skewed in favour of the latter

How will you be watching? Definitely going Tuesday and Wednesday, depending on how the book looks the weekend before might also go Thursday. Part of the deal with my mate is that he pays for the tickets and drinks :very_drunk:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom