St Leger

[Saxon Warrior]

Broome has been bought by Japanes owners and is to be targeted at the Arc, to be ridden by Yutaka Take.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Is this race as simple as the 7/4 Logician now suggests?

Outside of the fav the market is littered with AOB possibles, and little else.

If it’s to be Ballydoyle, which ones from the stable will:
a) run in the race?
b) have the best chance of winning the race?

 

[Quevega]

It’s as simple as logician for me.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Il Paradiso has been put up 12lb in the Irish Handicap ratings today (from 103) to 115. That would seem to exclude him from the Cesarewitch Entry he got last week, before his run in the Lonsdale at York. It would put him 1lb off top weight for the 35-runner Handicap even with his 10lb weight-for-age allowance. So maybe the St Leger engagement has become one step more likely for him.

BHA Handicapper has both Logician and Il Paradiso on 115 from their York runs. Constantinople stays on 110.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Reported on a Twitter that CONSTANTINOPLE has been sold to an Australian buyer. Most likely linked to the horse taking up his Melbourne Cup Entry. No news yet as to whether he would still take in the St Leger before flying down to Australia to a new trainer.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

News coming in this morning from Australia. Looks like CONSTANTINOPLE would miss the St Leger (14th September) as he has to go into quarantine on 12th September. cool more keep a share, but are willing to let him go before the St Leger, so they seem to have alternate number 1 plans for Doncaster - Il Paradiso? Sir Dragonet? Quote from Racing.com.

“The Melbourne Cup has a new co-favourite after Irish Northern Hemisphere three-year-old Constantinopole's price was spectacularly slashed from $51 to $15 following confirmation he is to be part-sold to Lindsay Park.

His original owners Coolmore are to keep a share in the horse along with a Lindsay Park syndicate, with plans to have the horse arrive in Melbourne in time for the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield on October 12 to have him ready for the Melbourne Cup 24 days later.

David Hayes confirmed the purchase on Saturday morning as Constantinople joined last year's Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter at $15 for this year's race after $51 was bet just 24 hours earlier.

"He goes into quarantine on the 12th (September) and if all things go well, he'll run in the Herbert Power on the way to the Melbourne Cup," Hayes said.

"Gary Fennessy is going over (Ireland) to get him ready and to build him up to bring him into quarantine."

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Oddschecker beginning to go Blue on Sir Dragonet, following potential for Constantinople to miss the race.

 

[Stormy Antarctic]

I’ve just had myself a small ew bet on floating artist. He caught my eye in the Gordon stakes and had the look of a horse that would show up well over the st leger trip. He looked to only get going as the race was all but over but I think he’d have beaten some fancied horses if it was run over a few more furlongs (Spanish mission, Constantinople) he’s a 50/1 shot with bet365. I think I’d still back him at half the price

 

[Quevega]

I’ve just had myself a small ew bet on floating artist. He caught my eye in the Gordon stakes and had the look of a horse that would show up well over the st leger trip. He looked to only get going as the race was all but over but I think he’d have beaten some fancied horses if it was run over a few more furlongs (Spanish mission, Constantinople) he’s a 50/1 shot with bet365. I think I’d still back him at half the price

If he's an intended runner that looks a decent bet to me.

 

[Quevega]

He was definitely pushed sideways twice in the sprint to the line, this can't have helped his balance on a track like goodwood.
Definitely overpriced in comparison to others.
I think Logician is max bet potential for me on the day though, his York win was effortless to my eye.
But I've followed you in on this one as it's the wrong price.

 

[Quevega]

Barsanti is a big price for tomorrow's Doncaster Cup. 40-1 B365.

The least exposed at this trip by far, having never ran further than 1m 6f. On all three occasions he's tried that trip he's been staying on well at the finish. And his run in the Ebor was eyecatching with regards a likely player over further. He was pretty much last turning in and was blocked as he started his run and had to go again, but stayed on best of most of them into 5th place.
By Champs Elysee so might just improve for the extra half mile.
Atzeni rides donny well.

Only thing stopping me having a bigger bet is Stradivarious - who looks pretty much unbeatable - so I'm hoping for second place.
Might do a reverse forecast.
anyway 1pt ew 40-1.
I'll back it again if someone goes bigger.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Barsanti is a big price for tomorrow's Doncaster Cup. 40-1 B365.

The least exposed at this trip by far, having never ran further than 1m 6f. On all three occasions he's tried that trip he's been staying on well at the finish. And his run in the Ebor was eyecatching with regards a likely player over further. He was pretty much last turning in and was blocked as he started his run and had to go again, but stayed on best of most of them into 5th place.
By Champs Elysee so might just improve for the extra half mile.
Atzeni rides donny well.

Only thing stopping me having a bigger bet is Stradivarious - who looks pretty much unbeatable - so I'm hoping for second place.
Might do a reverse forecast.
anyway 1pt ew 40-1.
I'll back it again if someone goes bigger.

I agree Q, I backed Barsanti in the Ebor, and was gutted when his run got blocked off as the finish developed. I am going to see the price on Betting Without the Fav before deciding on that or an each-way bet.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Any long term antepost punters have an opportunity to consider in today’s Flying Childers.

This relates to A Ali and Alligator Alley, who both look potentially top sprinters rather than milers.

They are both in the Commonwealth Cup betting, which could conceivably be their target at a Royal Ascot next June.

Alligator Alley is generally a 20/1 and 25/1 shot, but you can get 50/1 with 365 (and potential for Cashout).

A Ali is generally around 16/1 to 20/1, but you can get 25/1 with Will Hill (plus a price boost?) and BV.

These two are 11/8 and 6/4 for today’s race, and if one of them wins well, or they both come clear of the rest in a duel, then their Commonwealth Cup odds could shrink a lot.

 

[Quevega]

Any long term antepost punters have an opportunity to consider in today’s Flying Childers.

This relates to A Ali and Alligator Alley, who both look potentially top sprinters rather than milers.

They are both in the Commonwealth Cup betting, which could conceivably be their target at a Royal Ascot next June.

Alligator Alley is generally a 20/1 and 25/1 shot, but you can get 50/1 with 365 (and potential for Cashout).

A Ali is generally around 16/1 to 20/1, but you can get 25/1 with Will Hill (plus a price boost?) and BV.

These two are 11/8 and 6/4 for today’s race, and if one of them wins well, or they both come clear of the rest in a duel, then their Commonwealth Cup odds could shrink a lot.

Had a go with alligator with 365, and cashed out for full stake 5 mins after it flopped, so no harm done.

With the money coming for Dragonet.
If Logician goes out to 6/4 at some point tomorrow then I'm max betting it I reckon.
It should by rights drift unless when the serious money comes tomorrow the betting goes the other way, dettori etc.

Managed to get on threat at 5/2 when it looked like mums was not going.
And doubled this with Elarqam in ireland. also backed elarqam 6pts win 4-1

Rest of card is a disgrace with the amount of runners on undercard. Not missed leger day for a few years but not going tomorrow. and barring the portland and leger I'm not missing much.

In Portland I've gone
Terentum Star 2pts ew 66-1 6places
Equitation 1pt ew 25-1 4 places
Moment of madness 2pts 12-1
Mid to high draw looks place to be again, but we'll see.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Had a go with alligator with 365, and cashed out for full stake 5 mins after it flopped, so no harm done.

With the money coming for Dragonet.
If Logician goes out to 6/4 at some point tomorrow then I'm max betting it I reckon.
It should by rights drift unless when the serious money comes tomorrow the betting goes the other way, dettori etc.

Managed to get on threat at 5/2 when it looked like mums was not going.
And doubled this with Elarqam in ireland. also backed elarqam 6pts win 4-1

Rest of card is a disgrace with the amount of runners on undercard. Not missed leger day for a few years but not going tomorrow. and barring the portland and leger I'm not missing much.

In Portland I've gone
Terentum Star 2pts ew 66-1 6places
Equitation 1pt ew 25-1 4 places
Moment of madness 2pts 12-1
Mid to high draw looks place to be again, but we'll see.

The whole Leger meeting has been uninspiring for me, with the field sizes being comparable to midweek jumps racing.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm protecting a 100% win record in the English Classics this year :highly_amused:

Magna Grecia 12/1 ante post
Hermosa 25/1
Anthony Van Dyke 8/1 ante post
Anapurna 6/1


Not got anything backed for the St Leger to complete the set, but I'll almost certainly go for the big Grey, son of Frankel, with the best jockey and trainer to complete the set.



Never liked the St Leger, because Blue Bunting didn't win it.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

I went to post on here the other day that I’ve backed Sir Dragonet @ 5.4 on the exchange but I didn’t see a St Leger thread so thought I’d wait til today.

I really think it’s a poor race yet again and, for a ‘classic’ it’s a real shame it gets such a poor turnout year on year.

Anyway, Logician beat a glorified handicapper in Constantinople in the Great Voltigeir (I backed him that day thinking he may beat Logician as it goes). I think Evens is simply because of the time being decent that day and the fact Gosden likes him. With it being in the Frankel/Enable colours and an unbeaten potential superstar profile to the casual Saturday punter, I suspect he will go off odds on. I think that’s poor value.

Even looking at it ignoring my 5.4 on Sir Dragonet, I think the 5/2 on offer with Skybet and Boylesports is still very fair. He’s classy, looks a very likely stayer, is said to be working well at home and has genuine group 1 form. On form, he ought to be favourite here. Although I understand why he isn’t of course. To me, he really should be about 15/8 at the absolute max but a general 7/4 shot.

Il Paradiso is a funny old price because he was almost unthought if by most for this before serving it up to Stradivarius at York which instantly made him a lively one for this. It took longer than expected, but the plunge that occurs every year in the fortnight before this race came and it came for him. I can see why but I wouldn’t have him in front of the other main O’Brien candidate – as jockey bookings suggests too.

Sir Ron Priestley has looked a Leger horse all year but it’s a bit of an indictment of the race that he’s fourth favourite. Surely Sir Dragonet or Logician will have too much class? That being said, being a guaranteed stayer and battler like SRP is very much a plus for all races but especially one as gruelling as the Leger.

Dashing Willoughby is another grueller so the test should suit him and I’d prefer him tonTechnician at a similar price.

Nayef Road surely isn’t going to be good enough to win but might sneak a place and Western Australia continues to run in every ITV middle-distance group race for three year olds.

Without a shadow of a doubt, it’s Sir Dragonet for me in the 2019 St Leger

 

[Kevloaf]

Where is Sir Dragonet's genuine Group 1 form?

The close 5th in the Derby? I think Circus Maximus has skewed the perception of the race by winning back over a mile and more important, and I'd be confident Japan wasn't at his best that day. If he was, the 5th wouldn't be a 'close up 5th in a Derby', it's be a walloped in the Derb and he'd have been a disappointing also-ran.

After that, beaten in a Group 3 last time is hardly an ideal prep...? so his genuine Group 1 form is a 8L win in a Chester Group 3 trial race?

Not having that either. Or the Tipp surprise maiden win?





While he may well still end this race due to lack of opposition, I wouldn't get carried away that he's all-that-good anyway.... not that it would matter for you bet.:highly_amused:

.... as of yet, I've still not placed a bet on the race.

 

[Kevloaf]

The whole Leger meeting has been uninspiring for me, with the field sizes being comparable to midweek jumps racing.

Just seen that too, that's embarassing isn't it...

Field sizes outside the opening handicap of: 5/5/8/5/3/2

28 horses :very_drunk: (plus 22 in the 1:50)

 

[Quevega]

Just seen that too, that's embarassing isn't it...

Field sizes outside the opening handicap of: 5/5/8/5/3/2

28 horses :very_drunk: (plus 22 in the 1:50)

More horse running at every other meeting today