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St Leger 2020

Saxon Warrior

Saxon Warrior

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It's was a slow market to take shape until Santiago won the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot.

Only Unibet even had Santiago in the St Leger market before Royal Ascot began, so bookmaker liabilities will be low and at low prices on him.

Santiago held off Tiger Moth to win the Irish Derby this evening and is now 2/1 to 3/1 fav for the St Leger from 6/1 and 7/1 pre-race).

Depending how AOBs Derby horses run next weekend Santiago could be his top 3yo 12F colt.
If he is then that may mean choices from King George, Grand Prix De Paris & Arc at Group 1 come into the mix along with the St Leger and the Melbourne Cup.

As soon as the Irish Derby field crossed the line I rewatched it and was bowled over by the run of Dawn Patrol.

Held up out the back, Dawn Patrol tried to come up the rails in the straight, after Santiago got through, but he got blocked off, had to take a pull then switched left to find room five horse-widths across the field before straightening up and finishing very quickly.

This run into third closing down on the leaders cried out St Leger to me.
His breeding does too (closely related to Derby winner Pour Moi)

He was not quoted for the St Leger by a single bookmaker pre-race today.

I managed to get a price boosted 18/1 with PP when the St Leger market formed with initial quotes of between 5/1 to 16/1.

That high quote has been cut quickly into 10's, as I was initially starting my post up here, top price now is 12/1 (B365) which still seems fair c/w Santiago and their respective journeys through the race today, and the fact it was only DPs third race.

Todays race is worth a watch back with a focus on Dawn Patrol's run.
 
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I'm on Love, as was highlighted on here (by you, SW?)

My main fancy would be Roman Emperor at the moment, but I couldn't be sure I'd get a run with either at the moment.
 
AIB post-race quote seems to point that the first three could be St Leger horses, with the 2nd and 3rd likely to progress more in the next month.


"We thought he could be a Leger horse, and we were going to look forward to him for next year. He's a lovely, clean winded, honest horse.

“We thought he’d be a lovely Cup horse for next year. If he didn’t come here he might have gone to Goodwood over two miles.

"I think so (go for the St Leger), it looks a lovely race for him. There is a chance he could have a break now and be trained for the St Leger. We have the second and the third there too, so we will see what the lads want to do.

"They are two lovely horses (Tiger Moth and Dawn Patrol) and are two babies. They are progressing. In a month's time they will be even better we think."
 
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Kevloaf said:
I'm on Love, as was highlighted on here (by you, SW?)

My main fancy would be Roman Emperor at the moment, but I couldn't be sure I'd get a run with either at the moment.
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Absolutely Kev, I've now got LOVE and DAWN PATROL for the St Leger.

6pm on 1000 Guineas day I started the Ante Post thread with two big out-of-line antepost prices from Unibet on Secret Advisor (50/1 Ebor) and Love (33/1 St Leger)

"Love at 33/1 for the St Leger (Unibet).The Oaks was always going to be her race this year, so taking over 4 lengths out of the 1000 Guineas field on the rising ground was so impressive.
Only two firms quote her for the St Leger, B365 go 12’s and Unibet 33’s.

I’m sure both firms don’t think she will go to Donny, but if she wins the Oaks she could easily take in the St Leger and bid to be the first Triple Crown winner for nearly 40 years*
(Camelot narrowly failed, so it does show they are willing to give it a go)

The race programme could allow it:-
Oaks 4th July,*
Irish Oaks 18th July (if they want to go again quickly)
St Leger 10th September,*
and the Arc weekend 3 weeks later.*

Her time was excellent when compared with the rest today, she isn’t quoted in the Arc market yet but she could be worth a bet in that too if Aidan’s 3yo colts don’t step up, as he only has Japan (12/1) below 33/1."
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
AIB post-race quote seems to point that the first three could be St Leger horses, with the 2nd and 3rd likely to progress more in the next month.


"We thought he could be a Leger horse, and we were going to look forward to him for next year. He's a lovely, clean winded, honest horse.

“We thought he’d be a lovely Cup horse for next year. If he didn’t come here he might have gone to Goodwood over two miles.

"I think so (go for the St Leger), it looks a lovely race for him. There is a chance he could have a break now and be trained for the St Leger. We have the second and the third there too, so we will see what the lads want to do.

"They are two lovely horses (Tiger Moth and Dawn Patrol) and are two babies. They are progressing. In a month's time they will be even better we think."
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Those comments seem to suggest that he does believe he has a better(s) middle distance horse(s). Jockey bookings for Saturday will be very informative.
 
Dawn Patrol ran like he was wearing a St Leger T shirt and Hat, and waving a big fucking St Leger Flag.

Not had the UK Derby yet though so the 16's didn't attract me.
But things could easily fall into place and he could run at a lot lower price.
 
Quevega said:
Dawn Patrol ran like he was wearing a St Leger T shirt and Hat, and waving a big fucking St Leger Flag.

Not had the UK Derby yet though so the 16's didn't attract me.
But things could easily fall into place and he could run at a lot lower price.
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Absolutely Q. Biggest eye catcher in the race by far.
 
Morley Street said:
Those comments seem to suggest that he does believe he has a better(s) middle distance horse(s). Jockey bookings for Saturday will be very informative.
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Agree Morley,

The main Epsom ones Mogul, Russian Emperor and Vatican City seem like they could be his main 10F/12F 3yo colts, and the Irish Derby protaganists 12F-&-upwards.

Looking at the Irish Derby card before the race, as well as Santiago and Arthurs Kingdom having proven St Leger potential in group races, I had Dawn Patrol, on breeding and his recent 10F maiden run, marked down as another St Leger possible, but no-one was quoting him in the market.

I agree with Q that Dawn Patrol ran like he was wearing a St Leger T-Shirt, Hat and waving the races Flag. Love that quote Q. :highly_amused:
 
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He's mentioned today about the possibility of one or two of the Irish Derby runners getting and entry tomorrow for the Derby.
If he does that would suggest they have no fucking idea who their best middle distance horse is yet ?
Which makes more sense given the talent they have available.
 
Quevega said:
He's mentioned today about the possibility of one or two of the Irish Derby runners getting and entry tomorrow for the Derby.
If he does that would suggest they have no fucking idea who their best middle distance horse is yet ?
Which makes more sense given the talent they have available.
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Yes, they don't overface them on debut and then allow them to reveal their progress through regular racing.

I think they want as many as possible to have a chance to win the big prize.

I am sure they don't mind which one wins, as long as they win.
Remember last year with 7 of the 13 runners, and four of the seven at 10/1 or less:-
Sir Dragonet,
Japan,
Anthony Van Dyck,
Broome,
Circus Maximus,
Norway,
Sovereign.
 
....I liked the run of Mohican Heights in the King George. It seemed the further they went, the better it went and managed to pass Mogul in the final strides. 28-1 with Ladbrokes boost.
 
Eggs said:
....I liked the run of Mohican Heights in the King George. It seemed the further they went, the better it went and managed to pass Mogul in the final strides. 28-1 with Ladbrokes boost.
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I'd agree with this. I actually was tempted to have a small play on him in the Derby as well.
 
I've just heard Aidan O'Brien say regarding Love "she may not take in the St Leger if she's going to go on to run in an Arc"

Was on Luck on Sunday.



"It's all very open" was the quote regarding Santiago and Serpentine (and all of them).

Santiago they said he could go for the Goodwood Cup on the way to the Leger, but they might not do the Goodwood Cup now...





All very open :)
 
Kevloaf said:
I've just heard Aidan O'Brien say regarding Love "she may not take in the St Leger if she's going to go on to run in an Arc"

Was on Luck on Sunday.



"It's all very open" was the quote regarding Santiago and Serpentine (and all of them).

Santiago they said he could go for the Goodwood Cup on the way to the Leger, but they might not do the Goodwood Cup now...





All very open :)
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Yes, I would say it was "pontification".

What made the most sense of it all was when asked about the Arc for Love, it was clear that they will always:-

* Check the horses wellbeing after each race, and they have come out of the race well
* Then look at the racing programme for suitable race targets
* Plot each horses next race, and make entries - rather than plan for a long term target.

This is a sensible routine to have when they have a lot of good horses.

It also means that AOB at this point wouldn't know whats running in the St Leger in 2 months time, or the Arc in 3 months.

I am impressed by the race-to-race mantra, its probably the key reason that their good horses run often.

Serpentine won the Derby just a week after winning his maiden, and Santiago the Irish Derby 8 days after winning the Queens Vase.

Neither of these would have been predicted, yet after winning their races on a Friday and Saturday, they checked the horses were fit and well over 48 hours and on the Monday they were entered for Derby's being run on the Saturday.

Fascinating stuff to watch and engage your mind to.
No other trainer/owners group has these opportunities, and maybe if they had they may not do it this way anyway.
 
Im not a flat man in the slightest i dont enjoy it anywhere bear as much as the jumps, but its been an interesting one for me this year and ive enjoyed it alot more then usual betting wise, im slowly learning more and more so all i can do on this flat thread is just read and learn! And im massively thankful to that 80/1 landing in the derby so whoever put him up top man! I think that love looks unreal proper eye catching even to the untrained eye it just kept chugging this weekend and certainly wasnt slowing coming to the line id say surely the st leger would almost be a perfect trip, the other nag that has made me have a go for next year already is battleground!
 
Darain currently 20/1 for St Ledger runs at Newmarket today. With a comfortable win predicted and probable shortening of price I’ll be having a nibble at the 20s while available
 
BookieBasher said:
Darain currently 20/1 for St Ledger runs at Newmarket today. With a comfortable win predicted and probable shortening of price I’ll be having a nibble at the 20s while available
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How did you think he ran?

They commented he was hard to pull up after the line...



Still available at 20/1 now.

I wasn't blown away but I feel like it's pretty clear I'd be able to trade out. He was generally cut to 16/1?
 
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BookieBasher said:
Darain currently 20/1 for St Ledger runs at Newmarket today. With a comfortable win predicted and probable shortening of price I’ll be having a nibble at the 20s while available
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Keen goer. Doesn’t shape like he wants that trip to me. I’m on Al Aasy 17.5/1 boosted. Have to wait and see what Aiden runs.
 
Priceiskey said:
Keen goer. Doesn’t shape like he wants that trip to me. I’m on Al Aasy 17.5/1 boosted. Have to wait and see what Aiden runs.
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I'm not sure I agree that he hasn't shaped like he wanted the trip? I'd struggle to say he wouldn't get further.

Being too keen at the moment wouldn't help but I'd certainly give him another start to improve there and then he's got to be in the conversation?
 
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