September ‘25 Yankee

[Eggs]

Delighted that @knockando volunteered first to Captain the September effort, I’m sure he’ll let us know his initial thoughts.

Hopefully we start to get a bit more info coming in as the season approaches, so feel free to post any suggestions.

Waiting on confirmation, but we might also have the October Captain lined up in @RufusFlynn

 

[somer1]

@knockando You thinking of a Win or E/W Yankee?

 

[Istabraq]

@knockando You thinking of a Win or E/W Yankee?

At the prices I always think every yankee is each way until you hit the daily ones in raceweek where hotpots are picked, but I guess it’s up to individuals, some never play places….

 

[Eggs]

At the prices I always think every yankee is each way until you hit the daily ones in raceweek where hotpots are picked, but I guess it’s up to individuals, some never play places….

….i rarely back e/w this far out, so always win Yankees for me regardless of prices. Saying that, I tend to do a small stake e/w Acca on the 4 selections for a bit of insurance.

As you say, I think such decisions are very much down to the individual.

 

[SeanRock]

Besides the suggestions for last month’s yankee, at bigger odds I’d be keen enough on

Sortudo for the Supreme 33/1

A truly ran end to end gallop will see him to best effect. The Champion Bumper wasn’t ran to suit at all. He showed his best at Fairyhouse despite a hard campaign showing plenty of gears & a preference for a prominent ride that lends itself a solid Supreme type.

The Big Westener BANC

Connections had no worries going up against the boys last year, the old course on the Wednesday will suit her better too, a shorter run in up the hill & she has a bit of pace to go with her proven stamina.

Happy to put a line through Fairyhouse. She could end up in the Mares Chase but the owners have other options for that race & that’s only a grade 2 so not as valuable for them for when she’s breeding after racing.

I’m very keen on Jasmine De Vaux & Honesty Policy as potential open class top performers so have to mark up TBW’s Albert Bartlett performance. She’s just ahead of Honesty Policy in the overpriced order for me as she’s a year older & is physically built better for fences.

 

[Eggs]

…..Sortudo an interesting one @SeanRock, I used the Hills 25% boost on him for the Supreme back in April. Talking about Supreme, I think Kadastral is worth a look at @50-1. Won valuable Newbury Bumper very easily and highlighted by Skelton as his one to watch next season.

 

[knockando]

….i rarely back e/w this far out, so always win Yankees for me regardless of prices. Saying that, I tend to do a small stake e/w Acca on the 4 selections for a bit of insurance.

As you say, I think such decisions are very much down to the individual.

Hi Eggs - cheers for the call up. I’m with you too, I tend to just go for win yankees this far out and hope that they shorten come the big week. That said, will make sure I pick four selections with big enough odds for people to make the choice one way or another.

I’ll get some thoughts down around approach and angle over the weekend, and as you say - hope that through the month some more tidbits of info start to seep in as we go through the month.

In the meantime - keep any fancies coming in and we will take it from there.

Cheers.

 

[SeanRock]

…..Sortudo an interesting one @SeanRock, I used the Hills 25% boost on him for the Supreme back in April. Talking about Supreme, I think Kadastral is worth a look at @50-1. Won valuable Newbury Bumper very easily and highlighted by Skelton as his one to watch next season.

I’m not familiar with Kadastral at all @Eggs

Thanks for flagging him up I’ll have a look over the weekend, Dan will have plenty of ammunition for the upcoming season. Good to see, hopefully it makes for some big clashes in March.

 

[IstabraqBarRegular]

I liked his Bumper win in March, was it Newbury ?
Travelled easily, good turn of foot.
First thought was see if Dan runs him at Chepstow in Oct in the same race The New Lion won last October.
He is 33/1 for the Turner's, worse bets knocking about.

 

[Eggs]

I liked his Bumper win in March, was it Newbury ?
Travelled easily, good turn of foot.
First thought was see if Dan runs him at Chepstow in Oct in the same race The New Lion won last October.
He is 33/1 for the Turner's, worse bets knocking about.

….yep, I have him in my book for Sup & Turn at 50-1.

 

[knockando]

Thought would be handy to take stock of where we are with the previous yankees to see, firstly, any horses where we've got multiple selections and secondly, any major gaps in races (or known targets)

Supreme: Doctor Du Mesnil
Arkle: William Munny, Kopek x 3, Lulamba
Ultima:
CH: New Lion x 2, State Man
Mares hurdle:
Fred Winter:
NHC:

Turners Hurdle: Doctor Du Mesnil
BANC: Kitzbuhel, Derryhassen Paddy, Wendigo, Final Demand x 2
Coral Cup:
X Country:
Champion Chase: Marine Nationale
Grand Annual:
Bumper:

Mares novice hurdle:
Golden Miller / Novices chase:
Pertemps:
Ryanair: Fact to File
Stayers: Teahupoo, Jasmin de Vaux, Ballyburn
Plate:
Kim Muir

Triumph:
County hurdle:
Mares chase: Spindleberry
Albert Bartlett:
Gold Cup: Inothewayurthinkin, Lecky Watson
Hunters:
Martin Pipe:

Thoughts:

- I personally am heavily leveraged in Doctor Du Mesnil across both supreme and turners given it was an early momentum forum horse.
- We are covered heavily with Kopek in the Arkle (in 3 yankees now) so ruling that out, we have Final Demand and The New Lion covered twice for BANC and CH respectively.
- I do like State Man (which we already have covered) - 8/1 still stands out as ridiculous value and argument well covered by @Saxon Warrior in his early posts
- Surprised in a way that Fact to File only been picked once - admittedly very short at this stage but feels like this could be a wheelbarrow job for some on here (mixed in with some other good debate to be fair)
- I am hoping that Mark Howard's book might arrive towards the end of this month for a few selections, often some of the Ricci quotes and confirmed targets are gold dust early on to include...but we're not there yet so...

Two to throw in:

Brighterdaysahead 5/1 (Hills) - Mares Chase. I am aware that it's a short enough price, but she is going chasing per Elliott's quotes. Clearly her record at the Fez is a concern........but I still....to this day...wake up screaming thinking about Kennedy's ride back in 2024. They will clearly go for the easiest race for her to win at the Fez, so I can't see them going down the BANC route.

Mydaddypaddy 40/1 Turners hurdle - I saw this on twitter and reading through some of the stable tours from earlier in the year, the Skeltons bigging this one up, and quotes on x suggest that it could be their 'The New Lion'. Big risk based on one run at Huntingdon, but 40s big enough to consider...

 

[Eggs]

….Mydaddypaddy an interesting one @knockando, notice he’s a fair bit shorter for Supreme.

 

[knockando]

….Mydaddypaddy an interesting one @knockando, notice he’s a fair bit shorter for Supreme.

Yeah - I only came down on turners given the new lion's path last year and a quote i read about them likening MDP to him (and clearly being a more inviting price).

That said, the toss up between novice races is always why it's a risk picking one for a yankee, especially at this time of the year over one which has more of a guaranteed route or target.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Why do we think that Brighterdaysahead is going either Mares Chase or BANC?

She started last year over 2m, put in some very impressive performances and then ran in the CH…….yes I believe she goes chasing this year as she’s a fair old size, but why not initially target 2m and if performing well go for the Arkle?

If she did then she would be, at the start of this season, the highest rated hurdler going chasing and that’s without the mares allowance.

Big difference of opinion between bookmakers with WH standout @20/1 and as low as 7/1 elsewhere

 

[somer1]

Why do we think that Brighterdaysahead is going either Mares Chase or BANC?

She started last year over 2m, put in some very impressive performances and then ran in the CH…….yes I believe she goes chasing this year as she’s a fair old size, but why not initially target 2m and if performing well go for the Arkle?

If she did then she would be, at the start of this season, the highest rated hurdler going chasing and that’s without the mares allowance.

Big difference of opinion between bookmakers with WH standout @20/1 and as low as 7/1 elsewhere

Will she even turn up? Don’t think Cheltenham really suits her.

 

[knockando]

Why do we think that Brighterdaysahead is going either Mares Chase or BANC?

She started last year over 2m, put in some very impressive performances and then ran in the CH…….yes I believe she goes chasing this year as she’s a fair old size, but why not initially target 2m and if performing well go for the Arkle?

If she did then she would be, at the start of this season, the highest rated hurdler going chasing and that’s without the mares allowance.

Big difference of opinion between bookmakers with WH standout @20/1 and as low as 7/1 elsewhere

Elliott came out and said she'd want a trip and she'd stay 3 miles but that they'd start her over middle distance - so I figured that ruled out the arkle (if he is to be believed on that quote) initially. I also think that they'll just go with the easier race option which would be the mares at this stage.

With what happened in 2024 and then the Champion hurdle disappointment last year, it's a fair debate whether the course genuinely doesn't suit her or if it's a series of unfortunate events which I side towards, with Elliott's form struggling during the week last year and the inexplicable ride year before. As such, I do think they'll turn up for sure.

Full disclosure, I may be emotion driven and blinkered given her loss in 2024 was one of my biggest potential wins ever - just desperate to see her win at the Fez and have her in a winning slip!

 

[Wayward Lad]

Elliott came out and said she'd want a trip and she'd stay 3 miles but that they'd start her over middle distance - so I figured that ruled out the arkle (if he is to be believed on that quote) initially. I also think that they'll just go with the easier race option which would be the mares at this stage.

With what happened in 2024 and then the Champion hurdle disappointment last year, it's a fair debate whether the course genuinely doesn't suit her or if it's a series of unfortunate events which I side towards, with Elliott's form struggling during the week last year and the inexplicable ride year before. As such, I do think they'll turn up for sure.

Full disclosure, I may be emotion driven and blinkered given her loss in 2024 was one of my biggest potential wins ever - just desperate to see her win at the Fez and have her in a winning slip!

I agree the Mares should be an easier race, however it’s a Grade 2 verses the Arkle being a Grade 1, which may sway Gigginstown if she runs well early season? She’s still young so I just don’t see her going BANC whatsoever.

She is not devoid of pace, as shown last year and the Mares allowance would give her a fair gap to others on last years ratings, so I am confused why Elliot would say she needs a trip. Any horse that can beat State Man over 2 miles has to have some speed surely? She was only 5/2 to win last years CH!

The Arkle in recent years has been has been won by some staying types, Gaelic and Jango and I think 2m will suit her over fences.

A lot will depend on her jumping, but if she jumps well then I could see her bowling along in front in her races and just blow the opposition away.

I have had a saver on her for the Mares but believe that 20/1 is just a wrong price, even if the easier race is still fav for her in the ante post books at the start of the season.

 

[darlojim]

Are we forgetting that she schooled like a wardrobe?

 

[IstabraqBarRegular]

Thought would be handy to take stock of where we are with the previous yankees to see, firstly, any horses where we've got multiple selections and secondly, any major gaps in races (or known targets)

Supreme: Doctor Du Mesnil
Arkle: William Munny, Kopek x 3, Lulamba
Ultima:
CH: New Lion x 2, State Man
Mares hurdle:
Fred Winter:
NHC:

Turners Hurdle: Doctor Du Mesnil
BANC: Kitzbuhel, Derryhassen Paddy, Wendigo, Final Demand x 2
Coral Cup:
X Country:
Champion Chase: Marine Nationale
Grand Annual:
Bumper:

Mares novice hurdle:
Golden Miller / Novices chase:
Pertemps:
Ryanair: Fact to File
Stayers: Teahupoo, Jasmin de Vaux, Ballyburn
Plate:
Kim Muir

Triumph:
County hurdle:
Mares chase: Spindleberry
Albert Bartlett:
Gold Cup: Inothewayurthinkin, Lecky Watson
Hunters:
Martin Pipe:

Thoughts:

- I personally am heavily leveraged in Doctor Du Mesnil across both supreme and turners given it was an early momentum forum horse.
- We are covered heavily with Kopek in the Arkle (in 3 yankees now) so ruling that out, we have Final Demand and The New Lion covered twice for BANC and CH respectively.
- I do like State Man (which we already have covered) - 8/1 still stands out as ridiculous value and argument well covered by @Saxon Warrior in his early posts
- Surprised in a way that Fact to File only been picked once - admittedly very short at this stage but feels like this could be a wheelbarrow job for some on here (mixed in with some other good debate to be fair)
- I am hoping that Mark Howard's book might arrive towards the end of this month for a few selections, often some of the Ricci quotes and confirmed targets are gold dust early on to include...but we're not there yet so...

Two to throw in:

Brighterdaysahead 5/1 (Hills) - Mares Chase. I am aware that it's a short enough price, but she is going chasing per Elliott's quotes. Clearly her record at the Fez is a concern........but I still....to this day...wake up screaming thinking about Kennedy's ride back in 2024. They will clearly go for the easiest race for her to win at the Fez, so I can't see them going down the BANC route.

Mydaddypaddy 40/1 Turners hurdle - I saw this on twitter and reading through some of the stable tours from earlier in the year, the Skeltons bigging this one up, and quotes on x suggest that it could be their 'The New Lion'. Big risk based on one run at Huntingdon, but 40s big enough to consider...

I'm in the Wodhooh - Mares Hurdle camp.
She clearly enjoys the undulations at Cheltenham and I think this looks to be her perfect race.
Fly in the ointment is clearly Lossiemouth but surely they grow a pair and go Champion Hurdle, if she did I'd say Wodhooh would be fav.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Are we forgetting that she schooled like a wardrobe?

Oops

Did they plan to go chasing then last season and reverted to hurdles due to poor schooling?