Saturday 20/2/2016
1.15 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle.
This has the look of a thoroughly decent novices’ contest, and it’s one where quality has shone through in the past with six of the last nine winners having already won a Class 1 or 2 hurdle race. Duke Des Champs holds a first preference of the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock, so is unlikely to line up here, but another who carries the maximum penalty, YALA ENKI, surely holds a big chance.
Venetia Williams’ tough French import has done very well since coming to Britain, hammering Duke Des Champs on his Exeter debut and then finishing fifth in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock. He then defeated Westren Warrior and Ibis Du Rheu back over two and a half miles at Kempton and battled on well over three miles at Sandown to finish a close third to a pair of well-handicapped horses. The drop back once more to this intermediate trip can help this free-going sort who loves to dominate from the front and even though he has to give weight to many of his rivals, Yala Enki could have too much experience and staying power on this switch to novice company.
Big Chief Benny is a highly-rated five-year-old in the Alan King stable, but his win at Doncaster doesn’t look up to much form-wise. He’s finished 17 lengths behind Charmix and the same distance behind Buveur D’Air so far over hurdles, so whether he’ll be good enough is a question to be answered, even though you’d expect further improvement.
The step up to two and a half miles worked the oracle for Paul Nicholls’ Mr Mix and the stable was delighted with his development, so there’s no reason to expect his improvement to stop there. He dealt well with the bottomless ground at Taunton on his last start and in defeating Mountain Eagle and Miles To Milan, he registered a decent level of form so can’t be discounted. Nicholls won the race last year with Arpege D’Alene and has won the race three times in the last eight years, so he knows the type needed.
Nicky Henderson won this with the classy Finian’s Rainbow in 2010, and his Premier Bond is another horse who looks set to make a better chaser in future, but he’s already recorded good from over timber. His four and a half length win over William H Bonney in December looks better now after that rival won at Towcester this week and his closing second to stablemate O O Seven was an excellent effort. The step up in trip to two and a half miles should suit this six-year-old very well and he could be the one to challenge Yala Enki at the business end of the race.
Advice
YALA ENKI – 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet365)
1.50 Ascot – The Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
A cracking little race on paper and one in which DRUMACOO ticks all the boxes. The seven-year-old had some eye-catching form in novice hurdles over in Ireland for Michael Hourigan and it was a tad bemusing that he was so weak in the market on his debut for Ben Pauling at Huntingdon in January. He absolutely sluiced up that day and left the 140-rated Fletchers Flyer trailing in his wake. The testing conditions that day certainly played to his strengths and although he won’t encounter anything quite as attritional here, the ground will again be on the soft side. He comes here in search of a five-timer and if he continues his steep upward curve, should have enough to take this contest.
His nearest rival will most likely be Onenightinvienna who has shown some good form over fences the last twice despite only managing to finish runner-up. He ran well in defeat at Cheltenham in December behind subsequent Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase winner Blaklion and arguably should have regained the winning thread at Kempton last time. He has an entry in the Grand National and that may explain his jumping in that contest as he jumped very big early on, suggesting that he may have been schooled over National-style fences. With the National weights already released, a win here wouldn’t affect his handicap mark, so he could be all systems go but the only thing that makes him second-best in my eyes is the form line through Fletchers Flyer. He only beat him just over a length back in November compared to the thirty-eight length defeat that Drumacoo inflicted on him.
With arguably the highest quality form in the book, Vyta Du Roc cannot be discounted by any means. The gallant grey landed a pair of Grade 2 novice hurdles last campaign and was runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s. It could also be mooted that he may have finished a lot closer in the Neptune but for a final fence blunder. However, he has shown far from his best form over fences so far, grounding out a narrow victory in a four-runner affair on his chasing debut before getting turned over at long odds-on by the 136-rated Bouvreuil next time out. Surprisingly, his jumping hasn’t been an issue as he hasn’t really made any mistakes so far but he just hasn’t had the same spark that we saw from him last year over hurdles. He just looks to be lazy during his race which is a massive concern. The step up to three miles could help but he didn’t particularly look like a stayer over the trip in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle last year. Although he finished second, he was well beaten and benefitted from a final flight fall from Alpha Des Obeaux. If you looked at last year’s form, he would be more than good enough, but I think he is on the short side giving what we have seen so far.
The remaining three runners are all entitled to their place in the field and not one of them could be classed as a no-hoper. Ballyalton was second to Faugheen in the Neptune back in 2014 and has returned this season in ok form. He was in the midst of mounting his challenge on debut at Warwick until unseating three out and finished a decent second at Market Rasen last time out. He has also been a chaser in the making and the step up in trip should certainly aid him given he is a winning Irish pointer. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to hit the heights of a couple of years ago though.
Le Mercurey looked to be going the right way as a chaser when landing back-to-back victories in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase, albeit benefitting from a final fence fall from likely winner Amore Alato. However, he has gone off the boil somewhat and was never involved when well-fancied in the Sky Bet Chase last time out. A distinct leap of faith would be required with Minella Rocco whose jumping has left a lot to be desired in his three runs over fences so far. He entered this campaign as one of the leading lights in the novice chasing division but apart from an ok run at Haydock on his chasing debut, he has been very disappointing.
Advice
DRUMACOO – 1pt win @ 9/4 (Betfair)
2.05 Haydock – Betfred ‘Home Of Goals Galore’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
This year’s renewal of the Rendlesham could once again turn into a bit of a slog, with heavy ground conditions likely, so you’ll need one with plenty of form on that kind of surface.
Reve De Sivola certainly fits the bill and is rightly favourite given his form, however, he does have to carry 8lb more than every other horse in the race and the record of favourites in the last 10 years is poor, only two have won and at 5/4 and 10/11. Reve De Sivola won’t be that short come the off and he looks vulnerable despite his clear class over hurdles in this type of ground.
Almost at the complete opposite of the scale is Warren Greatrex’s One Track Mind who is at the start of what could well be a very good staying career. He’s been well supported in the market, despite only beating San Benedeto by one and a half lengths last time out and that form, on the face of it, won’t be good enough here.
However, Greatrex rates this horse very highly and you can’t rule out improvement, even though he might want some better ground than this.
But this race seems to be a great opportunity to look towards a couple of ‘reclamation jobs’ – At Fishers Cross, who put in a poor effort here last year, hasn’t won since his novice hurdling days, but has plenty of high-class form to his name. The weight allowance could well make a big difference and as he’s always showed his best form this side of Christmas, he could have one of his best opportunities to date to break that duck. His run last time in the Galmoy Hurdle was promising, even though he was well-beaten by Alpha Des Obeaux, and you’d expect him to come on for that.
However, another horse who could be having a ‘second-wind’ in their career is DEPUTY DAN, who returned to hurdles this season after some disappointing experiences chasing and finished third behind Thistlecrack and Reve De Sivola at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle last time out. He was about 12 lengths back that day on ground that would have been quick enough, so with the horrid conditions that we’re likely to get and the weight allowance, I can see that gap disappearing. Oliver Sherwood has always thought he was a very talented animal and given these perfect ground conditions and trip just short of the full three miles, the eight-year-old can get his head back in front for the first time since November 2014.
Advice
DEPUTY DAN – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Betfair)
2.25 Ascot – The Appletiser 50 Year Celebration Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race)
Slightly disappointing turnout really but still a tricky little contest to unravel. Spookydooky immediately appealed on the back of his decent effort in bottomless ground when second in the Tommy Whittle last time out. Prior to that, he prevailed in a battling finish at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting and certainly seems to be on the upgrade over fences. He is still relatively inexperienced over the larger obstacles having only had three starts and the suspicion is that he may get found out by one or two of these today. His mark of 142 doesn’t leave a great deal of room for manoeuvre but he does look like a chaser on the upgrade can could well find the required improvement to play a leading role.
Waldorf Salad is an interesting case at the foot of the weights, sneaking in off 10st 6lb. The eight-year-old looked standard fair until improving markedly this season, landing a pair of novice handicap chases at Towcester and Taunton before running a blinding race to finish second on Cheltenham Trials Day last month. Another 5lb rise for that means he has gone up 20lb in total this campaign but Venetia Williams is most adept at finding the right landing spots for her staying chasers and this five-runner affair is an easier opportunity than most to land a sizable prize. He does face a different class of horse here today though and I can see him coming up a bit short.
Until fluffing the landing three out last time, Vieux Lion Rouge had been almost faultless over fences and his completed record reads 3-3. He was a good bumper horse and a better hurdler but always seemed to get found out when he tackled a better class of opposition. Chasing seems to be a completely different game for him though and he was still going ok when unshipping Tom Scudamore at Cheltenham. If he reproduces that effort, he is sure to be there or thereabouts.
However, preference is for SAUSALITO SUNRISE who could just prove to be a class above the rest of the field. The eight-year-old was in the midst of running a cracker when falling behind Coneygree in the 2014 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase and that put paid to the rest of his season. I fancied him on his return at Chepstow but it seems as though he needed that run to blow away he cobwebs as he ran no sort of race despite being heavily backed on the day. He bounced back with aplomb though at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting, landing the Grade 3 Murphy Group Handicap Chase with a fine staying performance. He was well beaten at Newbury last time out by 2014 RSA Chase winner O’Faolains Boy but that was a particularly messy race with only two finishers and a line can be struck through that run. In truth, a 6lb rise for his Cheltenham win doesn’t seem to be too harsh and he can regain the winning thread here despite carrying top weight.
Advice
SAUSALITO SUNRISE – 1pt win @ 9/4 (General)
2.40 Haydock – Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3)
Looking ahead to this weekend and as only Silver By Nature and Rigadin De Beauchene won this race having finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the trio of Broadway Buffalo, Gas Line Boy and Rigadin De Beauchene who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form.
This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with seven of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Bishops Road, Gas Line Boy, Harry The Viking and Minella On Line all fail to make the cut in this year’s field and will be looking to emulate Well Refreshed, Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who all bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals.
In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with six of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to five with only the bottom three as they appear in the racecard missing out.
Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that all of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. Therefore it may be best to steer clear of both Broadway Buffalo and Minella On Line as they both have question marks over their stamina.
It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; seven of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. The ones to come unstuck here are Rigadin De Beauchene, Cloudy Too and Gas Line Boy although the first of them had the same blot against his name when winning two years ago so perhaps he can be forgiven for his past misdemeanours.
When considering age, in recent years there has been a shift towards younger runners with six of the last ten winners being aged eight or nine, this includes four of the last six horses to be successful. There are only two runners from the desired bracket this time around, the pair of eight-year-olds Bishops Road and Broadway Buffalo.
Another factor worthy of mention is that all of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Minella On Line only misses the cut by a few days having been off the track for 66 days but there would be more concern for Broadway Buffalo who will be returning from an absence of 105 days.
The final factor to be considered is the one looking at the betting and it does not make good reading for favourite backers as only two of the last ten has obliged. Whilst the market is still open to change between now and Saturday afternoon, Kerry Lee’s Welsh Grand National winner Mountainous heads the market at 7/2 and therefore there would have to be question marks about his chances.
Shortlist
BISHOPS ROAD – 7/8
Cloudy Too – 6/8
Mountainous – 6/8
Conclusion
On the trends, the one that stands out is BISHOPS ROAD who won on his first start for the Kerry Lee team at Sandown last month. He misses just one of our trends having failed to win a Class 2 chase and sneaks in on the stamina stat due to his point-to-point success. The stable have been in fine form of late and this lightly-raced eight-year-old looks to have plenty of improvement still to come for his new connections. The booking of Richard Johnson suggests he is likely to be ridden positively and he could be tough to peg back. It looks quite a competitive affair despite the small field and he looks to have a big chance.
Sue Smith’s Cloudy Too was an impressive winner at Haydock last time when landing the Peter Marsh Chase and despite stepping up in trip, he looks likely to run well again this time around. He misses both the age trend and having been a bit careless as a youngster his jumping also saw him miss another trend. It will be tough for him to carry top weight in this ground but he arrives here in good form and looks likely to run well.
The final member of the shortlist is Mountainous who won the Welsh Grand National for the second time back in January. Like the trends pick Bishops Road, he too is trained by Kerry Lee who is forging quite a reputation in her first season with a license. We know he stays well and handles testing conditions but at the age of eleven he is above the desired bracket and he also has the burden of favouritism to carry.
Advice
BISHOPS ROAD – 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, BetVictor)
