Ryanair 2020

[Kautothegreat8]

I don’t think A Plus Tard is a right-off for this race. He is a 160-rated 5yo (rising 6) and the trainer believes he needs to go left-handed, and his trip is middle-distances. A big plus is that he is trained by HdB and ridden by Rachel Blackmore.

Since the last Festival he has run right-handed over 3 Miles and on seasonal debut - left-handed over 2 Miles.

As Leopardstown is 2M1F at Christmas we still won’t see A Plus Tard over his optimum trip and track conditions until he lines up on the Thursday in the Ryanair.

He didn’t look too shabby last year, I cannot recall being at the Festival and seeing a horse run at that speed up the hill in a 2&1/2M Chase (irrespective of opposition or weight).

Frodon showed us last year not to take lightly these potentially improving young french chasers, with track form.

Min is a solid fav for this if DDS goes down in trip, but the opposition to him shouldnt be written-off, racing just isn’t as simple as that.

I’m certainly not writing any horse off but to me there’s much stronger opposition in the race. Road to Respect and Un De Sceaux would be my idea of the biggest dangers to Min. These are genuine top class horses who have the form to compete at the highest level. Now at the price APT may look inviting to some people after last years victory but we really need to analyse what the horse has beaten. He really is going to need to improve to beat any of the 3 I’ve listed, and I’m talking like a stone. 16/1 for that to happen just isn’t appealing enough for me to take that gamble. Who knows ??? It’s racing I suppose.

 

[Scooby91]

I don’t think A Plus Tard is a right-off for this race. He is a 160-rated 5yo (rising 6) and the trainer believes he needs to go left-handed, and his trip is middle-distances. A big plus is that he is trained by HdB and ridden by Rachel Blackmore.

Since the last Festival he has run right-handed over 3 Miles and on seasonal debut - left-handed over 2 Miles.

As Leopardstown is 2M1F at Christmas we still won’t see A Plus Tard over his optimum trip and track conditions until he lines up on the Thursday in the Ryanair.

He didn’t look too shabby last year, I cannot recall being at the Festival and seeing a horse run at that speed up the hill in a 2&1/2M Chase (irrespective of opposition or weight).

Frodon showed us last year not to take lightly these potentially improving young french chasers, with track form.

Min is a solid fav for this if DDS goes down in trip, but the opposition to him shouldnt be written-off, racing just isn’t as simple as that.

Opposition is deffinately not written off. Min is not the only horse I have backed. But I think hes the most likely winner.
And I see a plus tard as no danger for win purposes.

 

[Scooby91]

I’m certainly not writing any horse off but to me there’s much stronger opposition in the race. Road to Respect and Un De Sceaux would be my idea of the biggest dangers to Min. These are genuine top class horses who have the form to compete at the highest level. Now at the price APT may look inviting to some people after last years victory but we really need to analyse what the horse has beaten. He really is going to need to improve to beat any of the 3 I’ve listed, and I’m talking like a stone. 16/1 for that to happen just isn’t appealing enough for me to take that gamble. Who knows ??? It’s racing I suppose.

Tbf i wouldnt have either of those as dangers either. I have both as NRs in this in spite of that anyway. Surely RTR goes GC. Un de sceau stays over 2M now, but If either turned up i wouldnt be worried in the slightest,

 

[Craigy14]

Not a big fan of APT anyway but are there no races over 2.5m or 3m he could run in left handed?

Didn’t run too bad in his comeback run but will always be outpaced over shorter imo.

He may drift out to a big price come Ryanair day if they can’t find a race to suit and he keeps being beaten over shorter trips but you wouldn’t hold much hope of him running a blinder in the Ryanair.

Min worthy fav and really hope he comes here! Defi and Le Rich will be interesting if they get LR fit and firing again, surely be split up.

 

[Scooby91]

Not a big fan of APT anyway but are there no races over 2.5m or 3m he could run in left handed?

Didn’t run too bad in his comeback run but will always be outpaced over shorter imo.

He may drift out to a big price come Ryanair day if they can’t find a race to suit and he keeps being beaten over shorter trips but you wouldn’t hold much hope of him running a blinder in the Ryanair.

Min worthy fav and really hope he comes here! Defi and Le Rich will be interesting if they get LR fit and firing again, surely be split up.

They have darasso.

 

[Lobos]

Not a big fan of APT anyway but are there no races over 2.5m or 3m he could run in left handed?

Didn’t run too bad in his comeback run but will always be outpaced over shorter imo.

He may drift out to a big price come Ryanair day if they can’t find a race to suit and he keeps being beaten over shorter trips but you wouldn’t hold much hope of him running a blinder in the Ryanair.

Min worthy fav and really hope he comes here! Defi and Le Rich will be interesting if they get LR fit and firing again, surely be split up.

As the Ryanair is APT's first main target this season I have no with problem them getting him fully up to speed for March by giving him a few runs over inadequate trips/tracks. As you say his price won't fluctuate much until decs time but he'll need to be backed before then as I don't see there being much depth to the race on race day. He'll be ready to run a huge race then though.

 

[Craigy14]

As the Ryanair is APT's first main target this season I have no with problem them getting him fully up to speed for March by giving him a few runs over inadequate trips/tracks. As you say his price won't fluctuate much until decs time but he'll need to be backed before then as I don't see there being much depth to the race on race day. He'll be ready to run a huge race then though.

If I fancied him as you do Lobos, I’d be waiting until he’s had his last run.

As we expect he will be running over shorter and likely beaten he’s only going to drift. Especially if others who are potentially Ryanair bound are winning races.

 

[Craigy14]

They have darasso.

So they do, who has won twice over the minimum as well.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I value all positive comments on horses chances in antepost markets. Be good to tone down on some of the negatives on the opposition please like "you've done your dough", it's not helpful.

Sure there are more likely winners in every race which will be backed into shorter prices. But all the favs and top-rated horses arent all going to be winners in March. There should
be room for other opinions to breath, without dissing them.

 

[jack1092]

If I fancied him as you do Lobos, I’d be waiting until he’s had his last run.

As we expect he will be running over shorter and likely beaten he’s only going to drift. Especially if others who are potentially Ryanair bound are winning races.

Unless he runs terribly, i doubt he'll drift as much as you'd think Craigy. It's been well documented that these runs are not under ideal conditions.

 

[Hurricane fly]

APT is still only going to be 6 at the next festival aswell, he should continue to improve throughout the season

 

[Lobos]

Unless he runs terribly, i doubt he'll drift as much as you'd think Craigy. It's been well documented that these runs are not under ideal conditions.

Absolutely this. It's an old fashioned coup in the making. Backed him at big odds already and topping up when I can. Along with Honeysuckle and Fury Road, he's my biggest 'winner'. 12 weeks !!!!

 

[jack1092]

Absolutely this. It's an old fashioned coup in the making. Backed him at big odds already and topping up when I can. Along with Honeysuckle and Fury Road, he's my biggest 'winner'. 12 weeks !!!!

No coup at all, just no races for him to go for in his ideal conditions. People know this including bookmakers = no wild drifts

IMO anyway.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

As far as I can see, there is no 2m4f open left handed graded chase in Ireland before Cheltenham.
https://www.hri-ras.ie/uploadedFiles/RÁS/RAS/Race_Planning/2020 NH Jan Apr Prov Summ.pdf

Archie,

Having looked through the Racing Programme for Britain and for Ireland, I can confirm that:-

* In Britain, there are No Grade1 , Grade 2 or Grade 3 open level weights chases over the intermediate trip (2M4F/2M5F) on a left-handed track in the whole season until the Ryanair Chase.

The nearest exception is the Old Roan Chase at Aintree back in November, which is a Limited Handicap, not a level weights race.

* In Ireland there are No Grade1, Grade 2 or Grade 3 open level weights chases over the intermediate trip on a left handed track from now until after Cheltenham.

Is it any wonder that the Ryanair market every year is full of horses that may run in it, but don’t have a back-catalogue of in-season form that says a 2M4F left-handed Grade 1 is what they need. Probably suggests that one of Newbury, Cheltenham, Haydock etc ought to push for a Graded race over 2M4F during the season.

All the proven form for the Ryanair trip and left-handed track seems to come from Cheltenham (March) and Aintree (April) from the season before.

 

[Humble Pie]

Absolutely this. It's an old fashioned coup in the making. Backed him at big odds already and topping up when I can. Along with Honeysuckle and Fury Road, he's my biggest 'winner'. 12 weeks !!!!

Your pocket talking Lobos ?

Objectivity!

Good luck with your ante post hope you bet ew

 

[Craigy14]

Unless he runs terribly, i doubt he'll drift as much as you'd think Craigy. It's been well documented that these runs are not under ideal conditions.

Yes agree won’t be a huge drift as trip etc not what’s being aimed for but if the principles are winning each time I’d like to think the market would react accordingly?

Eg hypothetically if min and defi are definitely running along with some others at the top of the market are winning then straight away APT chances of winning are more unlikely (in bookies eyes) so should drift to a decent/better price than he is now if that makes sense?

 

[jack1092]

Yes agree won’t be a huge drift as trip etc not what’s being aimed for but if the principles are winning each time I’d like to think the market would react accordingly?

Eg hypothetically if min and defi are definitely running along with some others at the top of the market are winning then straight away APT chances of winning are more unlikely (in bookies eyes) so should drift to a decent/better price than he is now if that makes sense?

In a perfect world for punters yes, but it doesn't happen. It's a race where it could become very good or actually cut up, bookies wont take a chance on a horse likely to come here. Even if he does have a stone to find.

 

[Craigy14]

In a perfect world for punters yes, but it doesn't happen. It's a race where it could become very good or actually cut up, bookies wont take a chance on a horse likely to come here. Even if he does have a stone to find.

Aye that’s very true mate.

In theory it should happen but the likelihood it won’t haha!

 

[Quevega]

Took 33's Ryanair for Ridersonthe storm.
Bit annoyed I didn't take much bigger after first run this season as it looked good form.
Definite improver and could end up a very good horse.

another not on betfair that should have been, :sorrow:

 

[Quevega]

Took 33's Ryanair for Ridersonthe storm.
Bit annoyed I didn't take much bigger after first run this season as it looked good form.
Definite improver and could end up a very good horse.

another not on betfair that should have been, :sorrow:

365 had him 28's and were suspended during race PP weren't.
365 have only gone 20's which i don't think will last long