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Ryanair 2020

Well played all, I should never have doubted him:encouragement:
 
Mkn well and truly deserved that. He's been massively over priced all season. So well done to the ones who were on
 
YEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSS! At last Min gets his well deserved Festival Win!!
 
I am absolutely buzzing that Min won. Been in his camp a long time (having not been in it before) and he deserved that today. Another Ryanair winner that was previously 0/3 at the festival goes onto the winners list
 
Would enjoy Min vs Defi in the Melling Chase next month
 
Enjoyable watch back, as I thought Min was the best horse going in to the race and he’s won. In all honesty though, he hasn’t shown that he’s a level above like I think he is, he’s just got the job done. I think that’s because Cheltenham isn’t his ideal track. He’s clearly very good there still, and having argued his record was good prior, he’s cemented the fact he has a good Cheltenham record. Job done for me, 10 next year and with a new raft of Novice Chasers entering the picture I don’t think I’ll be rushing to back him at 10/1. Absolutely nothing wrong with that price, but just easy to look for better angles and races. The Ryanair is never a race I’d look to get involved in too heavily ante post as it’ll end up with horses entering from ‘failed’ 2 mile or 3 mile campaigns and it’s one of the last markets that really forms.


A Plus Tard was decent enough, I believe that is a fair reflection of his ability. I think he’s been perennially over bet and over egged since the Close Brothers win. He’s definitely a Grade 1 level horse, but he’s a notch below Min for now. He can obviously improve but 12/1 for him in the Ryanair isn’t a price I’d want to take ante post.


One of my all time favourite horses Saint Calvados nearly spoilt my race, with a cracking run. Realistically he shouldn’t be good enough to win a Grade 1 and I feel a bit sorry for the horse now as having been a neck second in the valuable New Years Day handicap at Cheltenham, he’s now risen again in the weights without winning and will be hard to get a win with him next year!
Of the horses behind the places, I don’t think any of them will be winning a graded race. Frodon, Shattered Love, Duc Des Genievres and Aso would all only be interesting in the Ultima or Festival Plate. The expection was Riders Onthe Storm who fell before I can tell how he’d have done. I’d give him another chance but pre-race I expecting him to not be good enough against a horse of Min’s ability and I don’t have any reason to doubt that yet, but he’s the only one of those I’d say has any chance at all.
 
“A Plus Tard was decent enough, I believe that is a fair reflection of his ability. I think he’s been perennially over bet and over egged since the Close Brothers win. He’s definitely a Grade 1 level horse, but he’s a notch below Min for now. He can obviously improve but 12/1 for him in the Ryanair isn’t a price I’d want to take ante post.”

I agree with all of that and mostly all of your reviews!
I dont think this was APTs best running though i think he most definely would of improved for a run at the DRF and a better campaign next year if he turns up in the ryanair again hell win it
 
I was just looking at the market for the Ryanair this morning and actually think 10/1 on Min is a backable price and one i will probably back at some point in the coming weeks as the price wont disappear overnight.

A Plus tard 10/1 - beaten fair and square this year and that is his level of form - why would he reverse form with Min?
Min 10/1 - reigning champ with a good festival record. A nailed on runner.
Samcro - 12/1 interesting but would connections look to step him up in trip (similar to don cossack)
Allaho - 12/1 very interesting but connections could target the gold cup - I would.
Monalee- 14/1 surely goes for another crack at the GC
Real Steel - 16/1 too in and out for me - despite a good run in the gold cup I still think he is better right handed. would chance at twice the price but not at 16/1
Mister dino - 20/1 - talented but injury prone
Saint calvados - 20/1 - beaten fair and square by min, fair enough EW price but not likely to reverse form IMO
Melon - 20/1 interesting but could step up for the GC
DDS- very interesting but could feasibly stay at 2 miles especially if hacks up in the tingle creek
Clan Des Obeaux - 20/1 - wont run
Angels breath - 25/1- needs to prove he can go left handed
Fakir D'oudaries - 25/1 interesting but may stick to 2 miles
Brewingupastorm - 33/1 - interesting and could be anything (have backed TWAR) but does need to improve.


Min is the reigning champ and only horse in that list (bar Saint Calvados) who is nailed on for this race. 10/1 seems like a fair enough price to me - he is likely to be half that or less on the day.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
I was just looking at the market for the Ryanair this morning and actually think 10/1 on Min is a backable price and one i will probably back at some point in the coming weeks as the price wont disappear overnight.

A Plus tard 10/1 - beaten fair and square this year and that is his level of form - why would he reverse form with Min?
Min 10/1 - reigning champ with a good festival record. A nailed on runner.
Samcro - 12/1 interesting but would connections look to step him up in trip (similar to don cossack)
Allaho - 12/1 very interesting but connections could target the gold cup - I would.
Monalee- 14/1 surely goes for another crack at the GC
Real Steel - 16/1 too in and out for me - despite a good run in the gold cup I still think he is better right handed. would chance at twice the price but not at 16/1
Mister dino - 20/1 - talented but injury prone
Saint calvados - 20/1 - beaten fair and square by min, fair enough EW price but not likely to reverse form IMO
Melon - 20/1 interesting but could step up for the GC
DDS- very interesting but could feasibly stay at 2 miles especially if hacks up in the tingle creek
Clan Des Obeaux - 20/1 - wont run
Angels breath - 25/1- needs to prove he can go left handed
Fakir D'oudaries - 25/1 interesting but may stick to 2 miles
Brewingupastorm - 33/1 - interesting and could be anything (have backed TWAR) but does need to improve.


Min is the reigning champ and only horse in that list (bar Saint Calvados) who is nailed on for this race. 10/1 seems like a fair enough price to me - he is likely to be half that or less on the day.
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...."and with a new raft of Novice Chasers entering the picture I don’t think I’ll be rushing to back him at 10/1. Absolutely nothing wrong with that price, but just easy to look for better angles and races. The Ryanair is never a race I’d look to get involved in too heavily ante post as it’ll end up with horses entering from ‘failed’ 2 mile or 3 mile campaigns and it’s one of the last markets that really forms."


I think because he'll be 10, and if a couple of those did show up he potentially wouldn't even be favourite. The commentr straight after my post was somebody who already fancies A Plus Tard to reverse the form....

So 10/1 is just 'alright'... it might look a good price but I don't think it's certain to.

Is Min likely to go unbeaten through the season too? I wouldn't have thought so, so perhaps the price will hold for a while?





To answer a few.... "why" could APT reverse the form, well because Min will likely decline at 10 and APT is open to improve as he gets older.

Not all of Samcro, Allaho, Melon, Fakir, Defi Du Seuil will go elsewhere? It'd only take one or two of those and Min's task looks a lot harder, and on the bare form he's only just beaten Saint Calvados, so he's not any where near bomb proof?
 
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If Angels Breath can return to full fitness I think he will have a really good chance in this race if he can prove himself left handed. My other fancy is Allaho, I think 3 mile stretches him but a positive front run ride and he’ll be hard to reel in.
 
Kevloaf said:
...."and with a new raft of Novice Chasers entering the picture I don’t think I’ll be rushing to back him at 10/1. Absolutely nothing wrong with that price, but just easy to look for better angles and races. The Ryanair is never a race I’d look to get involved in too heavily ante post as it’ll end up with horses entering from ‘failed’ 2 mile or 3 mile campaigns and it’s one of the last markets that really forms."


I think because he'll be 10, and if a couple of those did show up he potentially wouldn't even be favourite. The commentr straight after my post was somebody who already fancies A Plus Tard to reverse the form....

So 10/1 is just 'alright'... it might look a good price but I don't think it's certain to.

Is Min likely to go unbeaten through the season too? I wouldn't have thought so, so perhaps the price will hold for a while?





To answer a few.... "why" could APT reverse the form, well because Min will likely decline at 10 and APT is open to improve as he gets older.

Not all of Samcro, Allaho, Melon, Fakir, Defi Du Seuil will go elsewhere? It'd only take one or two of those and Min's task looks a lot harder, and on the bare form he's only just beaten Saint Calvados, so he's not any where near bomb proof?
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I don't think he is bomb proof but do think he won't be 10/1 on the day. For me that is as good as APT & you are absolutely right in being cautious of backing horses 10+ at the festival, Min hasnt exactly been 'over campaigned' so for me he is likely to carry the level of form he showed this season into next season.

I accept that 1 of either DDS or Fakir will run there but connections have already viewed Melon as a potential GC horse and with the GC being the pinnacle of the sport I could easily see Allaho and Samcro go there instead of here. Connections of Allaho have APT for this race and with O'leary winding down how many more GC shots is he going to have?

The 10/1 being value is dependent the majority of horses not going here which isnt by any means a certainty 11 months out but I do think Min is a backable price given the likelihood that the majority of the current challengers in the betting wont show up for this race.
 
Could you not see A Plus Tard having a crack at the Champion Chase after this season entries? I think he has more chance winning that than the Ryanair given the potential stronger field in the Ryanair this year??
 
The King Pimm said:
Could you not see A Plus Tard having a crack at the Champion Chase after this season entries? I think he has more chance winning that than the Ryanair given the potential stronger field in the Ryanair this year??
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Yep definite chance of that though his form is definitely better at 2 mile 4 - yes, he beat CPS but that was his first run of the season and r Willie's horses improved markedly from their first to the second run. A fast run 2 miles could suit but IMO APT is just short of graded winning festival class.
 
It’s whether CPS turns up fit though, he doesn’t seem to race that often and like Altior has questions marks whether it will be in attendance at next years festival. Also CPS has yet to race at Cheltenham before and he may struggle with the Hill whilst APT clearly gets up the Hill
 
Hardy Eustace said:
I don't think he is bomb proof but do think he won't be 10/1 on the day. For me that is as good as APT & you are absolutely right in being cautious of backing horses 10+ at the festival, Min hasnt exactly been 'over campaigned' so for me he is likely to carry the level of form he showed this season into next season.

I accept that 1 of either DDS or Fakir will run there but connections have already viewed Melon as a potential GC horse and with the GC being the pinnacle of the sport I could easily see Allaho and Samcro go there instead of here. Connections of Allaho have APT for this race and with O'leary winding down how many more GC shots is he going to have?

The 10/1 being value is dependent the majority of horses not going here which isnt by any means a certainty 11 months out but I do think Min is a backable price given the likelihood that the majority of the current challengers in the betting wont show up for this race.
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Hmm. How many of your what ifs need to click though for it to work out that way? On one hand you're happy horses being split by owner then in the next we've got Melon up against Al Boum Photo?


"I don't think he'll be 10/1 on the day".... no, he won't. It's quite a commitment beating the SP though, and unless you're going mob-handed attempting to beat SP creating it's rarely worth the risk in my opinion.

With 10 months to go at 10/1, I'd rather wait until 3 months to go with NRNB and take 5/1 and have twice the stake on if I still fancied him as strongly.


10/1 shots, as singles, for a person using a scale of 1-5 or 1-10 pts per bet doesn't appeal to me, however if I was attempting a book on the race I would...but the Ryanair is way too hard to make a book on relative to other races.


As I did say initially, it's a fair price, just not one for me.... I just thought your reasoning was a bit 'perfect case scenario' - when historically, he's unlikely to even go off favourite for the race... not many 10 year olds do, so he's still going to be a 'backable' price on the actual day of race market IMO, but we'll have loads more information about his challengers, level of form etc.
 
Kevloaf said:
Hmm. How many of your what ifs need to click though for it to work out that way? On one hand you're happy horses being split by owner then in the next we've got Melon up against Al Boum Photo?


"I don't think he'll be 10/1 on the day".... no, he won't. It's quite a commitment beating the SP though, and unless you're going mob-handed attempting to beat SP creating it's rarely worth the risk in my opinion.

With 10 months to go at 10/1, I'd rather wait until 3 months to go with NRNB and take 5/1 and have twice the stake on if I still fancied him as strongly.


10/1 shots, as singles, for a person using a scale of 1-5 or 1-10 pts per bet doesn't appeal to me, however if I was attempting a book on the race I would...but the Ryanair is way too hard to make a book on relative to other races.


As I did say initially, it's a fair price, just not one for me.... I just thought your reasoning was a bit 'perfect case scenario' - when historically, he's unlikely to even go off favourite for the race... not many 10 year olds do, so he's still going to be a 'backable' price on the actual day of race market IMO, but we'll have loads more information about his challengers, level of form etc.
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You make some good points there. I am definitely looking at it as 'best case scenario' and it rarely pans out like that. Will look forward to seeing how the puzzle unfold over the next 11 months!
 
Got willhill to add lostintranslation to the market. Added him as 7-1 favourite..... not what I was hoping for
 
I can see allaho going gold cup aswell as lostintranslation think a plud tard should try the champion this year probably be a smaller field head of the market injury prone perfect opportunity! Min was lucky this years winning that race Townsend did a great steering job! My pick at the moment is samcro I just don’t see me winning a gold cup owners have delta work for gold cup the way he won the marsh was impressive only worry is do they go for the gold cup holding fire on this race! Defi is overpriced @20 but same dilemma with CC campaign
 
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