Ryanair 2020

[Quevega]

Surprised this would need a poll, pretty obvious really. I'd like to know which bit of form gets ROTS within 10 lengths of Min off levels.

He may be an improver but he's not exactly lightly raced for his age, IMO. 4 less runs than Min, for a two year age gap, how much more is actually left the come?

To be clear on this before a hypothetical debate gets going.
I have a preference (generally) to look out for second season chasers in these type of racers, and whilst the number of runs a respective horse has had in it's lifetime can be relevant, his age and physical peak is also important.

In the last 6 runnings, we've had three seven year olds win the race who all started out handicapping. Frodon/Balko Des Flos/Uxizandre
We've also had the classier, and more experienced types win that are a little bit older/classier Vautour/Un De Sceaux/Dynaste.

You takes your choices.
I think in this case with these two animals, (ignoring prices) I'd pick the younger horse, but it would not surprise me if Min ran a great race.

Regards the which bit of form bit,
There are too many examples of improving second season novices that massively increase their rating once they step up at Cheltenham. They sometimes do it when they get the opportunity. They sometimes flop and are found out too.

to tag on to this - The trainer won the race with Imperial Commander who started his season in a handicap rated 139 also.

 

[charlie]

To be clear on this before a hypothetical debate gets going.
I have a preference (generally) to look out for second season chasers in these type of racers, and whilst the number of runs a respective horse has had in it's lifetime can be relevant, his age and physical peak is also important.

In the last 6 runnings, we've had three seven year olds win the race who all started out handicapping. Frodon/Balko Des Flos/Uxizandre
We've also had the classier, and more experienced types win that are a little bit older/classier Vautour/Un De Sceaux/Dynaste.

You takes your choices.
I think in this case with these two animals, (ignoring prices) I'd pick the younger horse, but it would not surprise me if Min ran a great race.

Regards the which bit of form bit,
There are too many examples of improving second season novices that massively increase their rating once they step up at Cheltenham. They sometimes do it when they get the opportunity. They sometimes flop and are found out too.

to tag on to this - The trainer won the race with Imperial Commander who started his season in a handicap rated 139 also.

Just comes down to preference I suppose. You prefer second season chasers vs the classier more experienced types, which I don't think anyone could argue with given the historical evidence on show. It's definitely easier to make a case for the latter because the former is more of an unknown, which is always more difficult to make a case for. I really like ROTS, I just hate the price (or the fact I've missed it ). To those on at big double figure prices I tip my hat to you, but the current 8/1 vs 6/1 on Unibet has me siding with Min every day of the week because your not getting the right price about ROTS improving to Min's level, and he needs to improve markedly to get near him, which I don't think he will.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

There's only 9lb between them in the ratings.

We know Min is a 170 horse in his best form. Riders onthe Storm is rapidly improving it isn't difficult to see him improving again over a strongly run 2.5 mile trip.

I think the prices are about right. If forced to bet at the prices, I'd side with ROTS as well but it is a tight call for me.

 

[charlie]

There's only 9lb between them in the ratings.

We know Min is a 170 horse in his best form. Riders onthe Storm is rapidly improving it isn't difficult to see him improving again over a strongly run 2.5 mile trip.

I think the prices are about right. If forced to bet at the prices, I'd side with ROTS as well but it is a tight call for me.

I’ve just been watching the races back and looking at this more closely. As ComplyOrDie said, which bit of form gets ROTS within 10 lengths of Min off levels?

Happy to be proven wrong, I just think people are getting carried away with ROTS. How’s he been given a rating of 162 for that win at Ascot?!? He's beat OTBS who is shit, 10yo Double Shuffle who has raced on heavy zero times in 29 runs, Adrien Du Pont who is slipping into the mid 140’s and the enigma that is Paloma Blue. It was a good performance made to look very good with a brilliant ride in the perfect heavy conditions. I can’t knock what he achieved that day because he did what was asked of him well and is clearly improving. He was very good vs Cepage in receipt of 7lbs, who has since gone on to perform averagely at Cheltenham twice.

Min has just won the Jon Durkan on his seasonal reappearance, with the form of that race being subsequently franked since by Reel Steel. I don’t think the 0/3 at Cheltenham argument holds much weight because he was taking on Altior who was a freak at the time, and plenty of horses with lower ratings than Min have won this having been 0/3 at the festival. Our Vic, Fondmort and Thisthatandtother all did it. Frodon, Balko and Dynaste all won having been 0/2 at the Festival. Festival experience is an important asset and when comparing the two ROTS has been to Cheltenham once where he refused to settle, hit and hampered 3rd then fell 6th.

So you have a good improving low 160's second season chaser dependent on heavy ground vs a multiple grade 1 winning 170's chaser that's not ground dependent with Cheltenham experience on his side, and you think 8/1 is a better bet than 6/1? That’s sheer madness to me. Just my opinion, I could be completely wrong.

 

[Quevega]

Think you're labouring the discussion charlie.
If you're that confident in Min, you should be laughing :highly_amused:
Thou Protest too much.

PS, I noticed you threw in the dependent on heavy ground thing too.

I'll throw in that Min can run well below 170 every now and then.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

ROTS will be fine on good to soft. Not sure where the dependant on heavy comes from. He went very nicely on soft ground at Aintree earlier in the season.

It's the manner of ROTS victories, especially at Ascot, that appeal to me. He powered through the race and hit the front much earlier than ideal and pulled clear.
To my eye, he can progress again from that and who knows where the ceiling of his ability is.



He is potentially very good in my eyes and I think he'll surprise a few people in March.

As an aside, the owners must be buzzing having only paid £30k for him in the summer.

 

[Quevega]

He's got a chest and thighs like Rudolf Nureyev.
He'll bully Min who's a bit of a poof.

 

[jack1092]

ROTS couldn't even bully the softy that is Hardline...joking aside he's shown some amount of improvement.

Imagine looking last season and saying we'd be debating this...Twisters done a good job.

 

[charlie]

Think you're labouring the discussion charlie.
If you're that confident in Min, you should be laughing :highly_amused:
Thou Protest too much.

PS, I noticed you threw in the dependent on heavy ground thing too.

I'll throw in that Min can run well below 170 every now and then.

I wouldn't say I'm massively confident on Min, I am just massively confident that ROTS isn't a better bet at 8/1 than Min is at 6/1. Don't see how posting up the reasoning to support that constitutes as laboring the discussion, unless I'm making points you don't like because you are in camp ROTS

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I wouldn't say I'm massively confident on Min, I am just massively confident that ROTS isn't a better bet at 8/1 than Min is at 6/1. Don't see how posting up the reasoning to support that constitutes as laboring the discussion, unless I'm making points you don't like because you are in camp ROTS

I'd say it's exactly it Charlie.

Cracking argument made though. More than I could be bothered doing, for sure.

 

[Quevega]

I wouldn't say I'm massively confident on Min, I am just massively confident that ROTS isn't a better bet at 8/1 than Min is at 6/1. Don't see how posting up the reasoning to support that constitutes as laboring the discussion, unless I'm making points you don't like because you are in camp ROTS

Only points I don't like are the made up ones.:dejection:
I've been ignoring price in most of this.
And I did try and stop it before it began:crushed:

And I agree that at the prices Min is currently the percentage call.:encouragement:

But sometimes if you're on a flush draw and a gut shot straight it's worth calling.
And that's why I'd pick Riders, as I think I have a few outs.

 

[Quevega]

I'd say it's exactly it Charlie.

Cracking argument made though. More than I could be bothered doing, for sure.

I think the point here Cod, is, there is no argument,
Min clearly has more credentials vs Riders (so you were right not to bother)

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I think the point here Cod, is, there is no argument,
Min clearly has more credentials vs Riders (so you were right not to bother)

Well that's one thing I'll be right about, for the whole festival :highly_amused::victorious:

 

[charlie]

Only points I don't like are the made up ones.:dejection:
I've been ignoring price in most of this.
And I did try and stop it before it began:crushed:

And I agree that at the prices Min is currently the percentage call.:encouragement:

But sometimes if you're on a flush draw and a gut shot straight it's worth calling.
And that's why I'd pick Riders, as I think I have a few outs.

And those are......

 

[charlie]

I'd say it's exactly it Charlie.

Cracking argument made though. More than I could be bothered doing, for sure.

Cheers COD. I could have just post a flippant one liner with little backup to support what I've said

 

[Quevega]

And those are......

dependent on heavy ground

 

[Quevega]

Charlie,
If you read post 781 and your response in 782.
We'd done by that point. High fived and on our way.

I blame FM for setting you off again with his comment just after.:highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Charlie,
If you read post 781 and your response in 782.
We'd done by that point. High fived and on our way.

I blame FM for setting you off again with his comment just after.:highly_amused:

It was my fault. Holding my hands up here

 

[Quevega]

It was my fault. Holding my hands up here

You're a Gentleman.:applause:

 

[charlie]

Charlie,
If you read post 781 and your response in 782.
We'd done by that point. High fived and on our way.

I blame FM for setting you off again with his comment just after.:highly_amused:

Just read it, you are right. I am being a moody prick today, and its friday ffs