• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Ryanair 2019

Garrison Savannah said:
Would sooner have the runner up at 33s. Don’t think politilogue likes Cheltenham at all.
Click to expand...

Wouldn't worry me at all personally . Came in fresh gave 6 pounds to the 2nd.and was rusty with his jumping. He'll come on plenty for that and was a lovely run. He's ran at chelt over fences in a top class JLT and a top class QMCC on soft ground which he dosent act as well on and ran with huge credit. Wouldn't be anything to do with the course imo he's just been at the very highest level. Aintree was effectively a drop in grade for both him and min if you look at the fields and they were a long way clear against the Ryanair horses.
 
Last edited:
Don’t get the King George angle
 
mayo said:
Don’t get the King George angle
Click to expand...

The owner has had a dream for a long time. If he wants to go that's up to him. Instead of wondering what if.....

He'll likely end up dropping back if he does as he travels sweet as a nut over 2 1/2
 
Scooby91 said:
The owner has had a dream for a long time. If he wants to go that's up to him. Instead of wondering what if.....

He'll likely end up dropping back if he does as he travels sweet as a nut over 2 1/2
Click to expand...

Arguabky ruined azertyuiop chasing it but he pays the bills
 
Thought Politilogue was good yesterday.

I will be keeping the 33/1 for Charbel for now (would actually back that now if I hadn't already - I think thats a fair price as the price difference between the first two is too big if they ran again at Cheltenham IMO).

Haven't got Politilogue backed at the moment but certainly one I am interested in for this race. I expect him to fall short in the King George and end up here but just in case he surprises me in the King George I'll wait a while before making a move on him.

Cashed out Benatar 40/1 - no chance in this race for me now.
 
Kevloaf said:
Thought Politilogue was good yesterday.

I will be keeping the 33/1 for Charbel for now (would actually back that now if I hadn't already - I think thats a fair price as the price difference between the first two is too big if they ran again at Cheltenham IMO).

Haven't got Politilogue backed at the moment but certainly one I am interested in for this race. I expect him to fall short in the King George and end up here but just in case he surprises me in the King George I'll wait a while before making a move on him.
Click to expand...


With the above in mind - anyone tempted to have a bet at 14/1 now with 365?

I can't see him staying the KG trip well personally, certainly not well enough to win it. For me he's a two miler that gets 2m4f (Tingle Creek winners don't go on to be KG winners unless they're superstars, and he ain't that)

...but will his price drift for this at any stage? If he won the King George he'd be less likely to run but they won't push him out will they?

If he 'doesn't stay' relative to the others over 3miles, this becomes the only race he could win. Lazy analogy but Al Ferof ended up in this race, has a bit more pace than him but Al Ferof and may just be a bit classier? (I love Al Ferof, what am I saying!)
 
Kevloaf said:
With the above in mind - anyone tempted to have a bet at 14/1 now with 365?

I can't see him staying the KG trip well personally, certainly not well enough to win it. For me he's a two miler that gets 2m4f (Tingle Creek winners don't go on to be KG winners unless they're superstars, and he ain't that)

...but will his price drift for this at any stage? If he won the King George he'd be less likely to run but they won't push him out will they?

If he 'doesn't stay' relative to the others over 3miles, this becomes the only race he could win. Lazy analogy but Al Ferof ended up in this race, has a bit more pace than him but Al Ferof and may just be a bit classier? (I love Al Ferof, what am I saying!)
Click to expand...

Despite being positive about Politologue previously, I still can't have him at Cheltenham. 4 poor runs is no coincidence IMHO. 14/1, I wouldn't even consider double if I'm being honest.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Despite being positive about Politologue previously, I still can't have him at Cheltenham. 4 poor runs is no coincidence IMHO. 14/1, I wouldn't even consider double if I'm being honest.
Click to expand...

I think 28/1 would look the best bet of the entire festival each way, because this will NOT be a deep race in any way, shape or form. He'll go in to this with as good a form as anything won't he? Unless you're in the fairyland where Altior, Might Bite, Footpad, et al run?

His Cheltenam form is poor though, you're right:

UR first run when getting involved first time he was there (would forgive that)
Rubbish in the Coral Cup (20th) but big field handicap not his bag at all (and a much better chaser than hurdler!)
4th in Yorkhill's JLT isn't awful, Top Notch has won races since and Disko still well regarded were both ahead of him.
4th in Altior's Champion Chase well beaten but he's never going to be winning a QMCC with top quality in it.
 
There is a stat somewhere (Gault?) that horses that run in the King George have a good record in this...
 
Kevloaf said:
I think 28/1 would look the best bet of the entire festival each way, because this will NOT be a deep race in any way, shape or form. He'll go in to this with as good a form as anything won't he? Unless you're in the fairyland where Altior, Might Bite, Footpad, et al run?

His Cheltenam form is poor though, you're right:

UR first run when getting involved first time he was there (would forgive that)
Rubbish in the Coral Cup (20th) but big field handicap not his bag at all (and a much better chaser than hurdler!)
4th in Yorkhill's JLT isn't awful, Top Notch has won races since and Disko still well regarded were both ahead of him.
4th in Altior's Champion Chase well beaten but he's never going to be winning a QMCC with top quality in it.
Click to expand...

I'd disagree regarding the 28/1, he is yet to place at the festival, can come up with whatever excuses you find, ultimately he doesn't act around there and Nicholls has said as much himself. The JLT you speak of only had 8 runners, and he still found himself 4th, which would not be good enough. The last 8 runnings of the Ryanair we have had the following field sizes, 6, 8, 15, 14, 11, 8, 12 & 13, so all bar last season has the race historically 'cut up'.

I really rate Politologue, on a flat track, in which case I'd prefer to back him for the King George than the Ryanair.

I can forgive the UR, that can happen to any horse, but I'm not having that JLT run as not awful, he was still 10 lengths behind, which, barring Top Notch & Disko the rest have been up to absolutely nothing and he finished further behind Yorkhill than he was ahead of the 5th, Kilcrea Vale who is now only rate 135 and is average at best. I can accept Politologue may have improved, but I'd say that improvement has come down as much to Nicholls' good placement as it has his overall improvement as a horse.
 
Leman14 said:
There is a stat somewhere (Gault?) that horses that run in the King George have a good record in this...
Click to expand...

KING GEORGE - 7 of the last 10 winners competed in the King George that season finishing 266P552. Double Shuffle (what a run) Tea For Two, Traffic Fluide, Fox Norton. Riverside Theatre 2nd in K George the season before winning this. Double Shuffle
 
Is Politilogue better suited going right handed?

7/7 going RH, 3/11 going LH, 0/4 at Cheltenham.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I really like him for the KG and think he's the one to beat, and if he wins the KG then they'll almost certainly go the GC route.
Click to expand...

I'm in the KG camp for him, rather him run in that than this tbh, could not have him for the GC though :devilish:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'm in the KG camp for him, rather him run in that than this tbh, could not have him for the GC though :devilish:
Click to expand...

Neither could I but I can't think of many KG winners that didn't attempt the GC.
 
I'm not disagreeing on his chances CoD.... however I can assure you if a bookie put up 28/1 they'd get plenty of money in the book each way.

Fact is he's 14s and my point was he may not get any bigger!

As I've said plenty, I'd always try and look to beat the book first before getting too bullish as we have no idea what the day of the race will look like.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom