• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Ryanair 2019

I keep forgetting everyone is purely talking from an antepost viewpoint on these threads probably because Antepost isn't my favourite play. My points relating to Monalee where not relating to me wanting to back him antepost for the race, just that i'd far rather see him turn up here, than go to a GC where he'd never be on my mind for come the day...
 
Kevloaf said:
You can't say he has no chance. If the RSA winner proves to be a superstar, the second to him may well be the best form on offer.

Its unlikely sure, but I'd rather have him running at 12/1 than a non rubber at 16/1. 4 points isn't worth the risk right now when connections aren't leaning this way is it?

He's certainly not a standout in the Ryanair even though plenty of us like him?
Click to expand...

He is the obvious winner to me. I think it wins if it runs in this race. Very confident if Min is the biggest challenger.
 
I understand where you're coming from, jack, but we don't know what will turn up in either race come the day.

I'd prefer that Kemboy was aimed here rather than the Gold Cup but he's only 6 and might benefit from the extra year before the big one. Monalee is a year older and if they want a shot at the Gold Cup this is probably his best chance.
 
boopa said:
He is the obvious winner to me. I think it wins if it runs in this race. Very confident if Min is the biggest challenger.
Click to expand...

Lot of water to go under the bridge and bubbles to be burst before then.

Monalee has shown absolutely no form whatsoever to entitle him to be a better horse than Min... but he's also not had the chance to, so I'm not going to be making nty bold statements. I can see either winning
 
archie said:
There is no logic in the 'if he were mine' betting methodology when it goes against what connections are saying at the moment.

Not sure I completely agree with this archie. Shattered Love is a prime example in this race for me. Connections are saying she will aimed at the GC. Personally I think she has very little chance in a GC and wouldn't have her on my mind for the race so have only backed her for the Ryanair. My hope is that as the season progresses they will change their mind and think this is the best option, even if they aren't saying it now.

Obviously its incredibly arrogant to think you know better than connections, but that's half the fun for me. And there have been a number of examples of it coming off... Vautour in this very race being the prime one.

From a betting point of view, the introduction of the cashout option has also made this a very viable approach imo. Horses will win races and shorten for multiple targets and you can have a position in both and still be in good shape.
Click to expand...
 
Obviously its incredibly arrogant to think you know better than connections, but that's half the fun for me. And there have been a number of examples of it coming off... Vautour in this very race being the prime one.

Not arrogant at all to have a different thought process to owners and trainers.

We're punters and our dreams are different to them.
I would imagine most owners have dreams and want them to last as long as possible. Definitely explains why many horses avoid each other till the big day. And why most will start the season aiming for the big one.

If I was dreaming I was going to spend the night with Rachel Riley I wouldn't want to wake up, and I'd definitely prefer to head straight there with no prep or obstacles in my way.
But at the last minute I'd be happy to divert to Holly Willoughby's flat if Rachel wasn't available, cos some foreign dancer got there before me.
 
Haha. Id cope with a divert from Ms Riley's to Ms Willoughby's any day of the week!
 
We're not talking about what the best horse is. This is a stiff 2m5. The Champion Chase bridle merchant will not beat Monalee at this distance.
 
archie said:
There is no logic behind that 'general consensus', it's just opinion. The form figures quoted for over 3 miles include two falls where he started favourite and might well have won.
Click to expand...

To reiterate what Boopa said, the logic is based on what people see, coupled with the race they think he would most likely win. It's not a betting proposition for me at this stage but I do think he would more likely win a Ryanair than a Gold Cup because he races quite keenly and is constantly reined back to conserve energy which forces errors and takes it's toll over 3m let alone 3m2f around Cheltenham. If he improves and irons out those quirks then the complexion of this debate could look completely different in 6 weeks time. Re connections, no owner has ever woken up wanting to win a Ryanair over a Gold Cup so if they think Monalee will handle Cheltenham then he will surely go Gold Cup, hence why I am not having a bet
 
Interesting boopa... they're certainly two horses coming at this race from different angles. Thought I'd have a look at previous winners and see which ones I consider 2 milers UP IN TRIP and which I consider stayers DOWN IN TRIP and if anything is a 'trip specialist'

2 milers
Un De Sceaux (2017) definitely in this camp, 2 miler than stayed the trip and oozes class.

Stayers
Dynaste (2014) went off 3/1 fav - I'd say he was a stayer than dropped back and won this race because it was a weak year! He was second in a JLT (then Jewson) before going up to 3miles at Aintree for that Grade 1 and winning as a novice, (after also winning the Kauto Star - then Feltham).

Imperial Commander (2009) - Not going to look in to this too much as I've had enough now (have gone back from 2018 to now despite this being early in the post) but won a Gold Cup so clearly can be classed as a top class stayer.


Intermediate
Vautour (2016) his two standout races are the Ryanair and JLT - he had one try and 3m and emptied out to be caught very late by Cue Card. He had the class over 3m but impossible to say he was a stayer - for me he was a trip specialist, although did win the Supreme over 2m (but in the style of a horse that would get further)

Balko Des Flos (2018) has had 5 runs at 3m - form 54324 (Albeit some of that is good form) but if you look at his record at 2m4f or 2m6f it reads form 1713F312314 - so 4 wins at less than 3m but over 2m. He could prove me wrong by the end of the season but for now, he's here on merit.

Uxizandre (2015) is closer to being a two miler than 3 miler but did win 1 hurdle race over 3m1f. However he won a Schloer Chase on the way to winning the Ryanair that season. He got a great ride that day, DOn Cossack who would be firmly in the stayer category was only 3rd that day... the 'pick' of his form would have been this race though?

Cue Card (2013) - hard to pin down really to a trip as he was on the go for so long and good enough to compete in Grade 1's all the way through. Won a Champion Bumper and went off 7/4f for the Supreme over 2m, won a Ryanair the year after being beaten by Sprinter Sacre in his Arkle, kept getting beaten in the King George before winning it against Vautour and fell when in the mix in a Gold Cup. Can have him in any section, anomoly?

Albertas Run (2010/2011) - Won this race twice, easily his best form and therefore confidently in the Intermediate section.

Riverside Theatre (2012) - Was a 2 miler for a long long time but then won 3 grade 1's on the spin at 2m5f (ending with his Ryanair) so very hard to say that wasn't his best trip too?



Impossible to really know if "best trip" is fair, because better horses were either running at 2m and 3m2f in every single edition of this, so we'll never really know.


In terms of Monalee and Min, neither have yet proved what there best trip is. Min has stuck to 2m in the main and is clearly at a very good level - I think this year they'll explore him UP IN TRIP and it could see him pick up a win in this race.
Monalee has been running at 3 miles and is also clearly at a very good level. I don't see him excelling at any further, so a STEP DOWN IN TRIP may well see him pick up this race.



Impossible to rule either out despite their different paths in my ever so humble opinion.
 
Last edited:
Min travels well on the bridle in a Champions Chase. Doesn't find much off it. Monalee stays 3m but races keenly and has the speed for an intermediate trip. I have no doubt Monalee is better suited to this race than Min. Min would have a big stamina doubt for me and it's not a horse I would want on side in a battle up the hill.
 
What do you guys think are the chances of Footpad turning up in this?
 
charlie said:
Re connections, no owner has ever woken up wanting to win a Ryanair over a Gold Cup so if they think Monalee will handle Cheltenham then he will surely go Gold Cup, hence why I am not having a bet
Click to expand...

What I said in #123:
"I'd prefer that Kemboy was aimed here rather than the Gold Cup but he's only 6 and might benefit from the extra year before the big one. Monalee is a year older and if they want a shot at the Gold Cup this is probably his best chance."

Maybe wait until you are a connection before making that call?
 
Can't Catch Me said:
archie said:
There is no logic in the 'if he were mine' betting methodology when it goes against what connections are saying at the moment.

Not sure I completely agree with this archie. Shattered Love is a prime example in this race for me. Connections are saying she will aimed at the GC. Personally I think she has very little chance in a GC and wouldn't have her on my mind for the race so have only backed her for the Ryanair. My hope is that as the season progresses they will change their mind and think this is the best option, even if they aren't saying it now.

Obviously its incredibly arrogant to think you know better than connections, but that's half the fun for me. And there have been a number of examples of it coming off... Vautour in this very race being the prime one.

From a betting point of view, the introduction of the cashout option has also made this a very viable approach imo. Horses will win races and shorten for multiple targets and you can have a position in both and still be in good shape.
Click to expand...

I really wouldnt worry what connections state about Shattered Love at the moment CCM.

Done a bit of digging, Racing Post on January 8th on their website Shattered Love was being aimed at the RSA, according to O'Leary, March 6th on the same publication O'Leary came out and said the plan is to run her in the JLT.

We've seen it before with Vautour, my conclusion is the top owners/trainers will spout a load of tosh leading up to the festival. She'll run in the Ryanair IMO, and is a solid each way bet, no matter what else turns up.
Click to expand...
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Not sure I completely agree with this archie. Shattered Love is a prime example in this race for me. Connections are saying she will aimed at the GC. Personally I think she has very little chance in a GC and wouldn't have her on my mind for the race so have only backed her for the Ryanair. My hope is that as the season progresses they will change their mind and think this is the best option, even if they aren't saying it now.

Obviously its incredibly arrogant to think you know better than connections, but that's half the fun for me. And there have been a number of examples of it coming off... Vautour in this very race being the prime one.

From a betting point of view, the introduction of the cashout option has also made this a very viable approach imo. Horses will win races and shorten for multiple targets and you can have a position in both and still be in good shape.
Click to expand...

I really wouldnt worry what connections state about Shattered Love at the moment CCM.

Done a bit of digging, Racing Post on January 8th on their website, Shattered Love was being aimed at the RSA, according to O'Leary, March 6th on the same publication O'Leary came out and said the plan is to run her in the JLT.

We've seen it before with Vautour, my conclusion is the top owners/trainers will spout a load of tosh leading up to the festival. She'll run in the Ryanair IMO, and is a solid each way bet, no matter what else turns up.

I also wouldn't call it arrogant, I'm all for listening to connections, but it doesn't mean you have to believe them or form an opinion over what they have to say.
 
archie said:
What I said in #123:
"I'd prefer that Kemboy was aimed here rather than the Gold Cup but he's only 6 and might benefit from the extra year before the big one. Monalee is a year older and if they want a shot at the Gold Cup this is probably his best chance."

Maybe wait until you are a connection before making that call?
Click to expand...


Not sure there was much Charlie said wrong there tbh Archie! You would still prefer Kemboy won a GC.

Though i agree with your views on Kemboy....i suppose the Ladbroke will play a part in the decision though.

Also, we all know, Mullin's owners make little or no decisions!
 
Last edited:
archie said:
What I said in #123:
"I'd prefer that Kemboy was aimed here rather than the Gold Cup but he's only 6 and might benefit from the extra year before the big one. Monalee is a year older and if they want a shot at the Gold Cup this is probably his best chance."

Maybe wait until you are a connection before making that call?
Click to expand...

What Kemboy's connections elect to do is irrelevant in a conversation specifically about Monalee?
 
Timeform
‏Verified account @Timeform
2m2 minutes ago

Top Chasers

179p ALTIOR
174 FOOTPAD
172 NATIVE RIVER
171 MIGHT BITE
170p GREAT FIELD
169 MIN
169 ROAD TO RESPECT
169 SIZING JOHN
169 UN DE SCEAUX
168p WAITING PATIENTLY
167 FOX NORTON
166 BALKO DES FLOS
166 BELLSHILL
166 POLITOLOGUE
166 THISTLECRACK
166 TOP NOTCH


Where is Monalee? Must be an error from Timeform :p
Min top rated that'll be coming here :devilish:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom