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RSA Chase 2019

Istabraq said:
RC - unless they’ve resolved OTBS shin issues I’m not expecting him to head to the festival.
Like you and many more in here I was very taken by his run at Cheltenham but the downhill run was uncomfortable/painful for the horse and in an ultra competitive festival heat he’s unlikely to get away with it compared to a 5/6 runner G2 race...
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Fair point Ista and something to consider. Ferguson does mention that in his write up but the fact he still got up the hill the way he did then won impressively next time out a month later implied he thinks this may not be such a big issue. Also if they were that concerned about his previous Cheltengam experience I would have expected McGrath to mention it (if he is as close to the stable as he implies). Anyway good point to raise and bring into the calculation.
 
Always thought OTBS more of a JLT type?
 
Innoko said:
Always thought OTBS more of a JLT type?
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So did I at this stage. I thought OTBS was a 3 miler last year then Henderson (quite publically) disagreed with Nico and 'proved his point' with the impressive win over the intermediate trip the next time out.

Chasing is a different beast though with the pace of the races being different, so I suppose I may just be being lazy thinking the distance transforms quite as simply.
 
Just noticed a few firms cut Santini last night for the RSA. 12-1 still avaliable at bet365 and betfred.
 
Seems strange to cut him before he does anything doesn't it. It isn't like anyone had any doubts at all around his target?

I was in the camp that thought Samcro would be going Chasing and for the RSA.... which is the only link I can think of as to why to cut him, but that is extremely tenuious anyway...
 
Horses arriving back from Summer breaks, some will have Summered better than others so could be plenty of talk from yards and don't forget these yards are all sponsored by bookmakers these days.
Probably one or two stable tours kicking around ?
 
Istabraq said:
Horses arriving back from Summer breaks, some will have Summered better than others so could be plenty of talk from yards and don't forget these yards are all sponsored by bookmakers these days.
Probably one or two stable tours kicking around ?
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That probably does explain it... but if I read a stable tour in the next few days and see Henderson say "Santini could be an RSA type"... I'll know I was way ahead of the game!
 
Kevloaf said:
Henderson say "Santini could be an RSA type"
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You'll read this 3 days after sustaining a leg injury keeping him on the sidelines until 2020, but making sure the lads in the yard can hit the lay button a few times before word gets out....
 
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SeanRock said:
I’ll keep plugging this lad till your all sick to the teeth of me mentioning him :highly_amused:

Nicholls had one word answer for his one to watch this coming season when pushed by RacingUK! Still the best anti post value on offer imo especially with Samcro now looking less likely to line up.

https://www.racinguk.com/news/your-choices-the-twitter-ten-to-follow-for-the-jumps-season
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Very hard to knock Sean. Best price is now 20s so I wouldn't go as far to say he's the best ante post value but certainly deserves to be mentioned often.

As we are this far out, it's always good to consider dangers... so of the other 20/1+ horses, who else do you like?
 
25’s still available with Ladbrokes Kev despite what oddschecker says. I think Cracking Smart (If sound after last years injury), Black Op, Champagne Classic & obviously Santini have obvious claims.

Personally I’d still have Topofthegame over the few I mentioned even at 20’s. Nicholls comments on him being a potential Grand National type are very encouraging. It takes a out & out stayer with class to win the RSA and Iv no doubts on that with him.

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018...bright-future-for-sandown-winner-topofthegame
 
SeanRock said:
25’s still available with Ladbrokes Kev despite what oddschecker says. I think Cracking Smart (If sound after last years injury), Black Op, Champagne Classic & obviously Santini have obvious claims.

Personally I’d still have Topofthegame over the few I mentioned even at 20’s. Nicholls comments on him being a potential Grand National type are very encouraging. It takes a out & out stayer with class to win the RSA and Iv no doubts on that with him.

http://www.attheraces.com/news/2018...bright-future-for-sandown-winner-topofthegame
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Pushed the button a few weeks back after reading your argument and looking further into him. He was one I backed at the festival last season too.


I do still think he is value, BUT, I can see this race being the hottest of all the novice chases at next years festival, so would also be mindful of that.
 
Good that 25s are still available then! (28s with the a boost)

From that article.... I know Nicholls can be overly bullish but these are a great few lines:

He added: "I said to Paul Barber (part-owner) he is bigger than Denman ever was. He stands at 17.2 hands plus.

"Waiting to go chasing next year will be the best thing that has happened to him. He stays forever and he is the sort of horse that might end up in a Grand National. To be honest, if he didn't run again (this season) it wouldn't matter."
 
100% COD, I’m under no illusions the RSA will be a red hot contest, looks the most competitive/deepest field on paper at the minute. History tells us it won’t be a massive field but it definitely wont be short on quality. I think Paul sees Topofthegame as his ticket back into the big time and as such has cautiously bided his time with him. Thankfully Paul Barber has given him that free reign as it should stand to the horse in the future.
 
SeanRock said:
100% COD, I’m under no illusions the RSA will be a red hot contest, looks the most competitive/deepest field on paper at the minute. History tells us it won’t be a massive field but it definitely wont be short on quality. I think Paul sees Topofthegame as his ticket back into the big time and as such has cautiously bided his time with him. Thankfully Paul Barber has given him that free reign as it should stand to the horse in the future.
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I've even just gone back to his point form, that looks incredibly solid too!

I must admit, given the improvement expected for going chasing, I am considering going in again and adding him to some multi's too, he must be a cracking e/way shout, regardless of what else turns up.
 
SeanRock said:
100% COD, I’m under no illusions the RSA will be a red hot contest, looks the most competitive/deepest field on paper at the minute. History tells us it won’t be a massive field but it definitely wont be short on quality. I think Paul sees Topofthegame as his ticket back into the big time and as such has cautiously bided his time with him. Thankfully Paul Barber has given him that free reign as it should stand to the horse in the future.
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I hope you are right. I'm starting to get incredibly excited about him again. People have very short memories (or perhaps I over-estimate Nicholls because he was the top trainer when I came into the sport) but I still maintain he's the best trainer of a staying chaser on either side of the Irish sea.... if he's got a good one, I can't think of anyone else I'd prefer to have training him.

Not to say Henderson, Elliott or Mullins couldn't win it, or are worse trainers (because they're clearly not) but Nicholls is now under-rated IMO!
 
SANTINI as short as 7/1 in places for the RSA, assume it's been an open day at Nicky's or something.
A bit of blue on oddschecker, anybody else getting excited about the middle of March ? :)
 
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