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Royal Ascot 2020

thorne365 said:
just noticed this on sky at 10s: Military march to place in the Derby, Battaash and Stradivarius both to win at Royal Ascot
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Good spot Thorne. The odds compiler who put that up isn’t too sharp. It’s a 5/1 shot. 4/5 4/7 and 6/5 for the place.
 
Two to add to my earlier Handicap Shortlist from the weekend, for horses who ran in Handicaps on Sunday 7th June, or a day or two later, and haven't been reassessed until today, are:-

FINEST SOUND 7/1 Britannia Handicap (THU)
Won a Class 4 handicap easily by 5&1/2 lengths on 8th June.
It looked like he was too low in the weights to get into this race even with a penalty, but he has done.
Carries a 5lbs penalty at ascot, increasing his OR to 87 from 82.
New OR today has increased from 82 to 94.
He is 7lbs well in this week from last weeks win.
The weeks Banker Handicap bet for me.

WEST END CHARMER 10/1 Duke of Edinburgh Hcap (FRI)
This horse came back from a year long injury break to run away (by over 4 lengths) in a competitive Class 2 handicap on Sunday 7th June off OR of 100.
I didnt include him in the original list as he was declared for the Listed Wolferton Stakes initially.
He is now in the final decs for Fridays 12F Handicap.
His OR has risen from 100 to 109 this morning and a 4lb penalty for his win means he runs off 104
5lbs well in.


Original List Updates
As I hoped and expected all six from the Original List would now still be running off lower mark's than handicapper has awarded today, even where penalties are carried at Ascot, with the three better off being:-

Ouzo new OR 96 up 5lb, runs tomorrow off old mark 91, 5lbs well in.

Arthurian Fable new OR 86, up 5lbs, can run off old mark, 5lbs well in if declared.

Declared Interest new OR 86, up 9lbs, runs Thursday with 5lbs penalty off 82 still 4lbs well in for last weeks easy win.


KIV West End Charmer and Babbo's Boy are declared for the same race on Friday (Babbo's Boy is 3rd reserve though).

Original List
OUZO - 7/1 - Silver Royal Hunt Cup(WED)
BELL ROCK - 10/1 - Royal Hunt Cup(WED)
ARTHURIAN FABLE - 14/1 - King George V 12F 3yo Handicap*(WED)*
GLOBAL STORM - 11/1 - Golden Gates 10F 3yo Handicap*(THU)
BABBO'S BOY - 14/1 - Duke of Edinburgh 12F Handicap*(FRI)
DECLARED INTEREST - 10/1 (Betfair Sports) Sandringham Fillies 8F Handicap*(THU)
 
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Battaash ✅ or ❌
Frankly Darling. ✅ or ❌
Mogul. ✅ or ❌
Japan. ✅ or ❌
Stradivarius. ✅ or ❌
More Beautiful. ✅ or ❌

I’ll go....
✅
❌
✅
❌
✅
❌
Anyone who gets all 6 deserves a big shiny ��
 
Priceiskey said:
Battaash ✅ or ❌
Frankly Darling. ✅ or ❌
Mogul. ✅ or ❌
Japan. ✅ or ❌
Stradivarius. ✅ or ❌
More Beautiful. ✅ or ❌

I’ll go....
✅
❌
✅
❌
✅
❌
Anyone who gets all 6 deserves a big shiny ��
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For My Royal Ascot Betting purposes this week.
❌
❌
❌
❌
❌
❌
:highly_amused:

Will they Win this week.
❌ Battash
✅ Frankly Darling
✅ Mogul
❌ Japan
❌ Stradivarius
✅ More Beautiful
:encouragement:
 
Priceiskey said:
Battaash ✅ or ❌
Frankly Darling. ✅ or ❌
Mogul. ✅ or ❌
Japan. ✅ or ❌
Stradivarius. ✅ or ❌
More Beautiful. ✅ or ❌

I’ll go....
✅
❌
✅
❌
✅
❌
Anyone who gets all 6 deserves a big shiny ��
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Battaash ❌
Frankly Darling❌
Mogul✅
Japan ❌
Stradivarius ✅
More Beautiful. ❌
 
Hi Saxon. Thanks for all that insight! Is the low draw for West End Charmer a concern? It seems a high double figure draw is a must at this distance? Would appreciate your thoughts on that. :encouragement:
 
charlie said:
Coeur de Lion @ 14/1 EW 6 places in the Ascot Stakes make some appeal (certainly one for the EW acca's).

Bit of a cliff horse but he's been consistent in this when 6th in 2018 (11/2) and 5th in 2019 (7/1).

He was unlucky last year, hampered at the start and met trouble in running but still ran respectfully and was only 4L back in 2018. I expect him to be fit as he's run twice this season which cant be said for most. With 6 places I expect him to hit the frame.
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Boom. Saved the day
 
charlie said:
Boom. Saved the day
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Well there Charlie, anyone ever have a horse you really don't want to win as you talked yourself out of backing it? I had 3 backed already and talked myself out of the winner a few times and low and behold he does that!
 
YoungHustler said:
Done my Wednesday bets.

1.15 - Maydanny
1.50 - Russian Emperor
2.25 - Trumpet Man/Bodyline
3.35 - Montatham
4.10 - Sheriff Bianco
4.40 - Ranch Hand/Floating Artist

It's not often I only have 1 dart at big handicaps but I'm only keen on Maydanny and Montatham for the two Royal Hunt handicaps. I think these 2 are seriously well handicapped. Maydanny broke the track record on his last run. Granted it was only at Yarmouth but the clock doesn't lie and he won so easily. The Lir Jet won on the same day and everyone was raving about that performance but Maydanny actually ran faster. He is regally bred by Dubawi out of Attraction and cost 1.35m. I believe there have been niggling issues with him which has meant that Johnston has allowed him as much time as he has needed and hopefully this season can see him fulfill his potential.
Montatham - just watch his last race. Didn't beat a great lot but I loved the manner that he did it in and the time was less than 0.5s slower than Kameko's 2000 guineas win. Obviously there is the weight for age adjustment but Montatham was just kept upto his work in the last furlong and would not have been fully wound up like the guineas horses.
IMO, I think both of these horses have got a stone in hand, with Maydanny possibly even more.
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Replying to this so others can see. Both been strongly supported since this was written.
 
PaisleyPark said:
Hi Saxon. Thanks for all that insight! Is the low draw for West End Charmer a concern? It seems a high double figure draw is a must at this distance? Would appreciate your thoughts on that. :encouragement:
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PP,

You’re right, a low draw is not a good position usually in races on the round course.
I’m not 100% sure why, unless they get blocked in behind horses cutting in from wider, or they over-race early to get a position and then have nothing left at the end.

For West End Charmer, the positives for overcoming the low draw are:-
* Trained by Mark Johnston, who has won the race twice in recent years, and does like to have his horses lead early
* in West End Charmer’s last three victories, he had the following Racing Post in-running comments:-

“ Started quickly, made all, against far rail throughout, shaken up 3f out, ridden over 1f out, went clear final furlong “
“ Made, ridden along and quickened over 2f out, clear entering final furlong, stayed on strongly “
“ Made all, clear over 2f out, unchallenged, very easily “

Given his ‘in-running‘ profile, having 5lb in hand at the weights, his trainers record at the meeting in handicaps, I think this horse could easily be away quickly enough to get a rails position, and then William Buick could drop anchor and dictate the pace from the front.

I can see him leading, on the rails, going into the straight, and then it’s down to whether he has conserved enough to see off the closers, that have been ridden chilly from higher draws.

I think it could be a win or bust bet, not an each-way one.
I think he could win by daylight (if he is an exciting improver), or be collared under 2F out and disappear into the pack.

I’m happy to back him and see. :encouragement:
 
The first thing I did after the decs was to see his draw and was disappointed not to see a high number but I am happy to also back him win only after that analysis :applause:

I see Bobbo's Boy is in a similar situation too if he manages to get in but his Racing Post comments include 'held up' and 'dwelt' so maybe another day for him.

Nice one for that
 
That draw bias for the 1m 4f races at ascot is weird.

But also one that is backed up statistically by the facts/results more than any other race in Horseracing.

I think I did something on it last year.

But this race and the King George V 2-25 tomorrow.
There has been only one (South Pacific last year) single figure drawn horse to win in 21 renewals.

Pretty sure the placed horses are massively biased towards high numbers also.

However, if any horse can do it then this one has a good chance as Johnston does well with these middle distance handicappers.

In last years King George V race South Pacific won by a neck and the horses following him home were drawn 18.19.20.21.15.14.22 ????

Cannot work out why exactly the trend is so strong, although the constantly turning from the get go may have something to do with it.
Just cannot fathom it myself. But will be sticking with high numbers for sure.
 
YoungHustler said:
Done my Wednesday bets.

1.15 - Maydanny
1.50 - Russian Emperor
2.25 - Trumpet Man/Bodyline
3.35 - Montatham
4.10 - Sheriff Bianco
4.40 - Ranch Hand/Floating Artist

It's not often I only have 1 dart at big handicaps but I'm only keen on Maydanny and Montatham for the two Royal Hunt handicaps. I think these 2 are seriously well handicapped. Maydanny broke the track record on his last run. Granted it was only at Yarmouth but the clock doesn't lie and he won so easily. The Lir Jet won on the same day and everyone was raving about that performance but Maydanny actually ran faster. He is regally bred by Dubawi out of Attraction and cost 1.35m. I believe there have been niggling issues with him which has meant that Johnston has allowed him as much time as he has needed and hopefully this season can see him fulfill his potential.
Montatham - just watch his last race. Didn't beat a great lot but I loved the manner that he did it in and the time was less than 0.5s slower than Kameko's 2000 guineas win. Obviously there is the weight for age adjustment but Montatham was just kept upto his work in the last furlong and would not have been fully wound up like the guineas horses.
IMO, I think both of these horses have got a stone in hand, with Maydanny possibly even more.
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Decent early shout YoungHustler Both now fav's on the exchanges and been absolutely smashed up.
 
charlie said:
Decent early shout YoungHustler Both now fav's on the exchanges and been absolutely smashed up.
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Agree, spotted this early, have them doubled up and now v excited for the day!
 
charlie said:
Decent early shout YoungHustler Both now fav's on the exchanges and been absolutely smashed up.
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Thanks Charlie. I like you also backed Alrajaa after spotting Crowley is not on Montatham. I'm heavy on Ranch Hand too so any one of those 3 winning today will be a good day.

Good luck everyone. Not long soon...
 
YoungHustler said:
Thanks Charlie. I like you also backed Alrajaa after spotting Crowley is not on Montatham. I'm heavy on Ranch Hand too so any one of those 3 winning today will be a good day.

Good luck everyone. Not long soon...
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Another point you mentioned I think? Alrajaa must be showing something serious for him to get off Montatham. Lets hope we are right
 
Hukum winning out of stall 4 so it can be done over 1m4f re: West End Charmer on Friday :encouragement:
 
I have only noticed now mainly due to him doing my nut in during Lockdown (he turned into a maniac) but Nick Bradley has been doing a few youtube videos on his 2yo fancies for Ascot. He had Tactical so far, and has put up the Chesham, Albany + Norfolk (sadly the fav) fancies. Worth watching if you don't follow 2yo races strongly + want an angle from someone who does.
 
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