Related Bets (ideas)

[FinalFurlong91]

I watched him discuss this and thought he was being stupid.
They just paid their tax upfront.
same difference.

That's what I was thinking as well

 

[Kevloaf]

I watched him discuss this and thought he was being stupid.
They just paid their tax upfront.
same difference.

It's not though is it, the tax afterwards is a guess, the tax beforehand was a guess but then they got re-assessed based on the form..... so you're being stupid

 

[Quevega]

It's not though is it, the tax afterwards is a guess, the tax beforehand was a guess but then they got re-assessed based on the form..... so you're being stupid

No.
It is definitely stupid.

 

[Kevloaf]

What have the results been like in past years for those horses??

If I knew that, I wouldn't be on an open forum asking for help in working out if it's a good angle or not.

Passive-aggressive questioning :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

No.
It is definitely stupid.

So if they put the tax on before, and then handicapped off it.... that's less accurate than putting the tax on with nothing relative to go off?

:applause:

 

[Lobos]

If I knew that, I wouldn't be on an open forum asking for help in working out if it's a good angle or not.

Passive-aggressive questioning :highly_amused:

Bit pointless then ! Try an easier angle:welcoming:

 

[Kevloaf]

Bit pointless then ! Try an easier angle:welcoming:

I can only apologise for trying to come up with an angle ...... sorry, I'll keep it simple. :barbershop_quartet_member: Back the favourite, or better yet, what's the Lobos life-changer? Keep it simple, make us all millionaires!

 

[Quevega]

So if they put the tax on before, and then handicapped off it.... that's less accurate than putting the tax on with nothing relative to go off?

:applause:

That’s how they got to the mark they ran off in the uk.
Its the same.
there is no angle IMO
Unless the angle is all uk horses are well in !

 

[Kevloaf]

That’s how they got to the mark they ran off in the uk.
Its the same.
there is no angle IMO
Unless the angle is all uk horses are well in !

Yes...... they got that mark before they ran in the UK, then ran in the UK and got a new mark....after it....

How is that the same as not running in the UK?




When they gave a 'new mark' after the races in the UK, that's a new mark, based on how they did with that Irish mark against UK horses.... so it's 'actual' marks that have relevance....



If they hadn't ran in the UK, it'd be the 'taxed' mark, that we have no idea about.....



:indecisiveness:



The UK horses are well in.... so when one gets re-assessed after it, accurately, you have a fairer playing field to work with?

 

[Quevega]

Yes...... they got that mark before they ran in the UK, then ran in the UK and got a new mark....after it....

How is that the same as not running in the UK?




When they gave a 'new mark' after the races in the UK, that's a new mark, based on how they did with that Irish mark against UK horses.... so it's 'actual' marks that have relevance....



If they hadn't ran in the UK, it'd be the 'taxed' mark, that we have no idea about.....



:indecisiveness:



The UK horses are well in.... so when one gets re-assessed after it, accurately, you have a fairer playing field to work with?

To run in the uk like stumptown did.
He was allocated a Uk mark (including tax)
then ran and got raised.
he was taxed once.
just like any Irish horse that gets entered over here.

Using the word tax is wrong anyhow.
they all get a uk mark when they run over here.
there is no advantage to running over here prior from a handicapping perspective at all

 

[Kevloaf]

To run in the uk like stumptown did.
He was allocated a Uk mark (including tax)
then ran and got raised.
he was taxed once.
just like any Irish horse that gets entered over here.

Using the word tax is wrong anyhow.
they all get a uk mark when they run over here.
there is no advantage to running over here prior from a handicapping perspective at all

He was taxed once, beforehand..... the point and angle is the mark AFTER that, is an actual mark that you can work with...as it's relative to actual UK horses!


You go on to confirm my point..... the angle is, the horses that ran over here are now handicapped to UK, the horses that haven't, we know less about and have to do more guessing. That is an advantage.


If you get a mark over here but don't run and get a new mark, I agree, no advantage. Running and then getting a new mark is an advantage, you have something to work with.



:love_heart:

 

[Quevega]

He was taxed once, beforehand..... the point and angle is the mark AFTER that, is an actual mark that you can work with...as it's relative to actual UK horses!


You go on to confirm my point..... the angle is, the horses that ran over here are now handicapped to UK, the horses that haven't, we know less about and have to do more guessing. That is an advantage.


If you get a mark over here but don't run and get a new mark, I agree, no advantage. Running and then getting a new mark is an advantage, you have something to work with.



:love_heart:

Definitely not confirming any point.
The contentious element for any Irish based horse is the uk handicappers differential from its Irish mark.
How is the fact he’s ran over here make his mark more reliable than a horse that hasn’t ?

 

[Kevloaf]

Definitely not confirming any point.
The contentious element for any Irish based horse is the uk handicappers differential from its Irish mark.
How is the fact he’s ran over here make his mark more reliable than a horse that hasn’t ?

Because they literally are then re-assesing based on running against the horses (UK) we know they're running against? How can you possibly think running against a horse and getting a new mark is less important/accurate than not running against it?

Before that happens, it's just a total guess from their seperate ratings. After the event, they will slot in their 'guess' from before, to what they now feel they know. if they don't do that, how can we have a clue? After it's happened, we can assess what their 'tax/guess' was..... that's it



Honestly, that is so straight forward I don't know how to continue this.

 

[Quevega]

Because they literally are then re-assesing based on running against the horses (UK) we know they're running against? How can you possibly think running against a horse ande getting a new mark is less important than not running against it?

Before that happens, it's just a total guess from their seperate ratings. After the event, they will slot in their 'guess' from before to what they now feel they know.



Honestly, that is so straight forward I don't know how to continue this.

All Irish horses are given a uk rating.
this can be lenient or harsh
Running from this starting point over here and getting a hike is no advantage. It doesn’t mean the starting pint was more lenient or more harsh than others.

I agree we could go on all night and so it’s best that we agree that I’m right.
Because I most definitely am.

on my phone so no emojis- lol

 

[Kevloaf]

All Irish horses are given a uk rating.
this can be lenient or harsh
Running from this starting point over here and getting a hike is no advantage. It doesn’t mean the starting pint was more lenient or more harsh than others.

I agree we could go on all night and so it’s best that we agree that I’m right.
Because I most definitely am.

on my phone so no emojis- lol

All Irish horses are given a uk rating. - yes, I know :encouragement:
this can be lenient or harsh - yes, I agree :encouragement:
Running from this starting point over here and getting a hike is no advantage. It doesn’t mean the starting pint was more lenient or more harsh than others. - :encouragement: still agree

I agree we could go on all night and so it’s best that we agree that I’m right. - :dejection:
Because I most definitely am. :hopelessness:




Right..... whatever they were before, harsh or lenient, becomes irrelevant, as they they get assessed relative to the UK horses.... so if they WERE well in, and now aren't, or the opposite, that's FINE.... my point is, they are now 'relative' for us to actually make a decision on.


Before they do this, it is not relative and therefore we are guessing at if they're well in or not. After, it is relative, and therefore we can make a decision. That makes it more reliable than if a horse has not ran over here.



Don't worry about the emojis, I know we won't fall out... and this will be my last post on it because I cannot possibly explain my point any clearer :highly_amused: - whether you agree or not :beaten:

 

[Old Vic]

Fantaastikas ultima
beauport Kim Muir

 

[Kevloaf]

Danny Mullins can't be out the places can he on Day One?


Il Etait Temps 6/1
Dysart Dynamo 5/1
Vauban 12/1
Shewearsitwell 20/1
Sir Allen 10/1


Gets progressively harder through the day, but he could be riding with Supreme confidence after the first....

126125/1 :very_drunk:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLrGVAQ9aII

18 mins 30 in ...... Danny certainly wouldn't put you off​

 

[DenmanSacre]

Luca Morgan / Ben Pauling each way double
Samuel Spade
Global Citizen

608/1 with WH, 545/1 elsewhere

 

[Eggs]

….NTD double:

Fantastikas (Ultima)
Beauport (KM)

275-1.

 

[JamieSensible]

Doctor Dino EW Double/Treble for day 1

Doctor Bravo - Supreme
State Man - Champion Hurdle (Optional)
Jazzy Matty - Boodles

Double (Excluding State Man): 356/1

Treble: 1544/1

Both prices available with multiple bookmakers according to odds checker.

You could also have Tekao in the Boodles by Doctor Dino but the above suggested as an EW double would be more interesting to me.