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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2019

ComplyOrDie said:
I agree, I think both Footpad & Douvan end up in this race, which is why the price discrepancy has me perplexed.

Footpad has done nothing Douvan hasn't already done.
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I think the price is mainly down to it being more likely Footpad gets placed here by the owners and Ruby will not let anyone else ride Douvan if he's in with a chance of winning that week.

If Ruby can't move Footpad, then he has to choose between Douvan and Footpad.... OR, he can convince Ricci to have Min in the Ryanair and step Douvan up in trip and pick off the Ryanair (all in theory of course).

In terms of betting at this stage, there are way too many possibilities... Min might beat Footpad in Ireland, Yorkhill might have realised he's a horse and not a cabbage? Douvan might get injured... I'm trying hard NOT to get too caught up in where the Mullins horses go (*scans through my posts - whoops!*):highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
I think the price is mainly down to it being more likely Footpad gets placed here by the owners and Ruby will not let anyone else ride Douvan if he's in with a chance of winning that week.

If Ruby can't move Footpad, then he has to choose between Douvan and Footpad.... OR, he can convince Ricci to have Min in the Ryanair and step Douvan up in trip and pick off the Ryanair (all in theory of course).

In terms of betting at this stage, there are way too many possibilities... Min might beat Footpad in Ireland, Yorkhill might have realised he's a horse and not a cabbage? Douvan might get injured... I'm trying hard NOT to get too caught up in where the Mullins horses go (*scans through my posts - whoops!*):highly_amused:
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8/1 Douvan 'Any Race' is a tempter then, as all bar injury he goes off shorter than that regardless of the race I think.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
8/1 Douvan 'Any Race' is a tempter then, as all bar injury he goes off shorter than that regardless of the race I think.
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Yeah that is how I played him last year. I actually expecting him to go for the Ryanair and that late 'teaser' from Ricci was gutting in the end!

This far out I want to see him, Footpad and Altior all in the same race... I'm sure they'll all be aimed at it until decisions need to be made!
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah that is how I played him last year. I actually expecting him to go for the Ryanair and that late 'teaser' from Ricci was gutting in the end!

This far out I want to see him, Footpad and Altior all in the same race... I'm sure they'll all be aimed at it until decisions need to be made!
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Altior 100% goes to the CC. He’s the greatest 2m (Sprinter Sacre asides) since Master Minded.

Douvan probably ought to be aimed at the CC. It’s stunning to think he hasn’t even placed in the race yet. Arguably the 2nd best 2m behind Altior in training.

Footpad has he potential to be very good. But it’s nothing more than potential. And he could be going Ryanair.




As a betting proposition, Footpad is in absolutely no way attractive to me.
 
Willie Mullins - Footpad -
"He has come back in from grass looking very well. In terms of his trip, much will depend on what his owners want to do. It is easier to keep chasers sounder over shorter trips than longer trips, but he is bred to stay, has form over further and is a very efficient jumper of a fence, so he has the option of running over longer trips too. I’ll have to have a good discussion with his owners before we make any firm decisions on him."
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Mullins had this to say after the Arkle:

"We know he stays. It's a surprise to us that he's able to win an Arkle. We had him down as our two-and-a-half-mile horse for this year, JLT or possibly RSA, but then when he came out and did what he did in his first two races we said we were in the wrong division and should go back for the Arkle and he's done that now.

"I doubt I've had one improve so much from hurdles to fences. His jumping has just brought him up another gear."

He added: "This fellow could be a Gold Cup horse. Lots of Gold Cup horses have won the Arkle and this fellow is much more laid back than some.

"I think we will have a good chat with connections and see if they would like to go in that direction.

"He has plenty of stamina."
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This will be REALLY interesting won't it? I am starting to believe he SHould be in the Gold Cup! I feel like Willie is convinced Footpad is a Gold Cup horse. With Altior around, and Douvan, Min and Great Field all available to fire at the Champion Chase... he could "avoid" one big clash?

I'd fear Altior more than Might Bite or Presenting Percy if I was Footpad.

He is an uninviting 16/1 for the Gold Cup, which is disappointing but byu the same token, if you knew he was going for Gold you'd definitely want a piece. One for the "free bet brigade" in my opinion and I imagine I'll start backing accordingly if I pick any free bets up on sly.
 
I really hope Great Field makes it over this year, would add another dimension to the race


Douvan is shorter for the Ryanair but I suppose that’s as much because of Altior as anything
 
Hurricane fly said:
I really hope Great Field makes it over this year, would add another dimension to the race


Douvan is shorter for the Ryanair but I suppose that’s as much because of Altior as anything
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Top price with PP for Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup.... so they don't seem to mind anyone having a bet, and implies it really isn't clear where he is going?
 
I’d agree, I think Douvan and Footpad are the stables top chasers and the two they will split. Mullins seemed to confirm that Min was CC bound, and Great Field you would think the same, but Min has been proven to be a step behind Altior twice and GF is a great unknown as for all his high rating he’s beaten not much.

I don’t see Douvan going to the GC at all so an Altior CC/Douvan R/Footpad GC trixie could be a play, however I’d like to think they take Altior on with one of them, preferably a fully fit Douvan as that’s a race I’ve wanted for years

*a lot of rambling to myself there
 
Hurricane fly said:
I’d agree, I think Douvan and Footpad are the stables top chasers and the two they will split. Mullins seemed to confirm that Min was CC bound, and Great Field you would think the same, but Min has been proven to be a step behind Altior twice and GF is a great unknown as for all his high rating he’s beaten not much.

I don’t see Douvan going to the GC at all so an Altior CC/Douvan R/Footpad GC trixie could be a play, however I’d like to think they take Altior on with one of them, preferably a fully fit Douvan as that’s a race I’ve wanted for years

*a lot of rambling to myself there
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Great that Cheltenham is 5 months away, and we're up at gone midnight wondering where Mullins will send his chasers :triumphant:
 
Cadmium cut yesterday to 25s from 40s. My mate has a part share in this (SHR club) and would just be happy to bowl along and get home safe as he doesn’t think he will trouble the major players. I’ll keep you posted on any change but This is his target.
 
Does anyone think the fact the owners have Sceau Royal for this, will mean they'll send Footpad over further. I personally think they'll go for the Ryanair with him, but it's certainly hard to call when Willie has 3 or 4 that could swap between this and the Ryanair. If its soft again come March could Un De Sceaux not be dropped back to this as well?
 
taylorch1990 said:
Does anyone think the fact the owners have Sceau Royal for this, will mean they'll send Footpad over further. I personally think they'll go for the Ryanair with him, but it's certainly hard to call when Willie has 3 or 4 that could swap between this and the Ryanair. If its soft again come March could Un De Sceaux not be dropped back to this as well?
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They were happy enough to let Footpad and Sceau Royal run against each other in the Arkle so on its own I don't think either will affect each others target
 
Right, we're on page 4 and nobody has mentioned the QMCC winner yet.

Saint Calvados 50/1 is a joke of a price.

His form was impressive and progressive last year, for me he's the best 2 mile chaser in the UK.

If (and this won't be an if that gets past everybody) you put a line through the Arkle run, which I would say is perfectly acceptable to-do, as Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados clearly both lit eachother up through the race at various times, then he's a wild price for this race isn't he?

His price contracted to 11/4 2nd fav in the Arkle due to the ground... it's a shame he didn't run his race. The ground not "likely" to be soft is a concern, but he's 50/1 - and it might be soft again. (And the trainer was happy enough to let him go for the Arkle on better ground too)

The main problem is that Altior won't be beaten on merit by him, and for all that he didn't give his running, I can't see him beating Footpad on merit either ... but, he is 50/1.

Footpad might not run and Altior is 7/4 and I am not going to run scared of one horse this far out.

Altior was only 24 hours away from missing the race last year, and if anything did happen to him, every horse will likely half in price over night.



Saint Calvados was a wild price for the Arkle at 100/1 and even though it didn't pay out, I think he's been under-estimated again for this season.

You don't need many positives to back a horse at 50/1 in my opinion either... I'd fancy him against literally every other UK based 2 miler in the country bar Altior and let's be honest, if he won the Champion Chase and I hadn't backed him I'd never forgive myself.
:highly_amused:

50/1 e/w Saint Calvados
 
Where is he likely to run beforehand Kev? Tingle Creek or possibly the 2 mile chaser at Cheltenham November meeting?

I'd like to see him run at Cheltenham in November, just to rule out that he needs a flat track to be at his best.
 
If you think Saint Calvados is overpriced at 50-1 then isn't Petit Mouchoir also overpriced at 33-1. Like has been mentioned both SC and PM took each other on in the arkle but PM ran a much better race for longer and was unlucky to be pipped to 2nd. I can forgive him the 2 runs after Cheltenham because of the hard race he had. Also just seen Min is 25-1 with PP/BF might be a sign that he's not going to be aimed here. But his second in this last year is still a great piece of form and 25-1 is too big imo.
 
Saint Calvados reminds me of the English football team....

Cruises through the qualifiers, then absolutely bottles it on the big stage

Sorry Kev ;)
 
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What I would say about saint calvados to is that hes still only 5 yrs old and has only had 8 races under rules, give this it would be likely theres still more improvement to come from him
 
taylorch1990 said:
If you think Saint Calvados is overpriced at 50-1 then isn't Petit Mouchoir also overpriced at 33-1. Like has been mentioned both SC and PM took each other on in the arkle but PM ran a much better race for longer and was unlucky to be pipped to 2nd. I can forgive him the 2 runs after Cheltenham because of the hard race he had. Also just seen Min is 25-1 with PP/BF might be a sign that he's not going to be aimed here. But his second in this last year is still a great piece of form and 25-1 is too big imo.
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Perhaps.... but there is 17 pts between 50s and 33s, and for me Petit Mouchoir is more exposed, less likely to improve and likely to go up in trip.

I'd have SC at 50/1 over PM at 33/1 at this stage.
 
Kevloaf said:
Perhaps.... but there is 17 pts between 50s and 33s, and for me Petit Mouchoir is more exposed, less likely to improve and likely to go up in trip.

I'd have SC at 50/1 over PM at 33/1 at this stage.
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Don't you think they might go up in trip with Saint Calvados ? I reckon it could improve for it.
And I doubt trainer would run it on good ground if either footpad or altior still lining up. However 50-1 is well worth taking a chance.
 
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