12.55 Cheltenham – The Glenfarclas Veterans’ Handicap Steeple Chase.
Realt Mor looks to have every chance on the back of a facile victory at Down Royal a week ago and deservedly heads the market. Now 11, Gordon Elliott’s charge has had a rough time of things since winning the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup in 2013 but has shown that he retains some of his old ability with his latest victory and evidently arrives here in form. However, he now races off a mark of 140 with a 6lb penalty here and doesn’t look particularly well treated if you consider that he was beaten 31 lengths off 1lb lower at Perth back in June. He may still be well in but I’m willing to oppose him given how quickly he is turning out with the problems he has had.
With this in mind, DUNRAVEN STORM is taken to run a big race and could well provide some solid each-way value. The now 11-year-old landed the Grade 2 Arkle Trial at this meeting two years ago and went on to finish a close second in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on his very next start. He went without a win until May this year when landing a valuable handicap chase at Kempton in good style and following a couple of below-par efforts, now find himself on only a 2lb higher mark. A line can be drawn through his pipe-opener at Chepstow last month as he usually improves for the run and although he steps into the unknown trip-wise, he has always shaped as though he would stay this far and an extended 2m4f could be the perfect tonic for him at this stage of his career.
Astracad has been mostly consistent throughout his career and should have his perfect conditions here with sound going underfoot. His form did tail off towards the end of last campaign but he has tended to be an early season horse in recent years and has gone very well fresh in the past, especially last season when getting the better of subsequent Old Roan scorer Third Intention in a competitive contest at Chepstow. He has dropped down to 1lb lower than that last winning mark here and this is just the kind of contest in which he can make his mark these days. He will likely be there or thereabouts.
Shuil Royale enters the contest in good form having struck in decent style at Aintree last month. A 6lb rise for that win sees him rise to a career-high mark of 149 and while he clearly arrives in good nick, conceding weight all round may well be a step too far in this company. The drop in trip is another concern for a horse that has been staying on well over three miles of late.
Nicky Henderson’s Ericht has been an enigma throughout his career. Plagued by injury, and temperament, issues, he has never really hit the heights since being sent off favourite for the 2011 Champion Bumper. Connections weren’t particularly confident about his chances even back then but have persevered with the now ten-year-old who never seems to run two races alike. He was an impressive winner at Kempton back in February but went completely off the boil after that and even his runner-up effort at Newbury wasn’t particularly inspiring. He could be entitled to come on for that however, for all that he remains a very risky proposition.
Bennys Mist is a likeable type but this is an altogether different test to that which he tends to excel. Venetia Williams’ charge seems to have a penchant for the National fences and while he doesn’t stay far enough for the big race itself, has finished runner-up in a Topham and landed the Grand Sefton last year. He is 8lb higher here but did put in a couple of good efforts at Ascot and in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury off just 1lb lower and has the benefit of Charlie Deutsch’s 5lb claim taking some extra weight off his back. The suspicion is that this may just be a prep run before he heads back to Aintree.
Another who will likely have Aintree on his agenda is this year’s Topham winner Eastlake, although Jonjo O’Neill’s yardstick has proven effective around Cheltenham before. A mark of 148 looks as though the handicapper may have him in his grasp at present but conditions here will suit him much better than his opening gambit last month (was never going to stay 3m1f) and he does have a bit of class about him.
MY Advice
DUNRAVEN STORM – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)
1.30 Cheltenham – The BetVictor Handicap Steeple Chase.
Colin Tizzard is going very nicely at the moment, so it’s no surprise to see two entries from his stable in this valuable two-mile handicap chase. Both are new arrivals from Alan & Ann Potts having their first run for Tizzard after being moved from Henry De Bromhead, but despite an element of the unknown about both, it seems clear that Sizing Codelco is the higher-quality of the two, something a 5lb gap in the ratings doesn’t quite reflect. Bally Longford has run some fair races in defeat over the last couple of years and even defeated one of today’s opponents, Un Beau Roman, in a Galway handicap chase in August last year, but a mark of 136 seems very harsh on what he’s achieved more recently and unless Tizzard has unlocked something different in him, I find it difficult to see the eight-year-old contending at the business end.
Sizing Codelco on the other hand, looks to be relatively fairly handicapped off a mark of 141, 4lb below the mark he raced off in the Grand Annual in March. Unfortunately, he threw JJ Burke off his back after a blunder at the first fence, but on the form of his second to Shaneshill and third off 140 behind Bright New Dawn and Rock The World in a Grade B Handicap Chase over two miles, he has to hold strong claims here. Any softening in the ground would be welcome for this seven-year-old, especially over this bare two mile trip and he’s a horse that has gone well fresh in the past so a break is no concern either. The worries with him lie in the jumping department – he’s fallen or unseated three times in his last eight runs over fences and he’ll need to keep his concentration better in a race where the pace is likely to be fairly strong with plenty of prominent racers involved. Also bear in mind that no top-weighted horse has won this in the past ten years, so even though he may be the best horse in the race long-term, he might be worth swerving at short prices here.
A winner of this race back in 2014, Bold Henry races off a mark 15lb higher (140) than that day here and hasn’t run a decent race over fences off a mark any higher than 134. However, on his best effort, he’d be in with a squeak and the booking of Barry Geraghty does give some confidence in the Philip Hobbs-trained gelding – if his jumping holds up, he’ll enjoy the fast pace to tow him into the race. He’ll need some more rain though, he carries a lot of weight and no ten-year-old has won this in the last ten years, so he would be a slightly surprising winner.
The recipient of an 8lb allowance by virtue of being a 4-y-o, David Pipe’s Impulsive American must come into the race with some hope of hitting the frame after spending the last few months in good form, never finishing worse than fourth in any discipline. He’s won twice on the flat, three times over hurdles and twice over fences in 2016 so clearly knows where the line is, but at Ayr last week, he finished well-beaten in third despite receiving a similar allowance in a seemingly weaker race. Unless he’s improved significantly from that, he’s hard to fancy here.
Tom Scudamore rides him instead of nine-year-old Next Sensation, who he usually partners for his father, Michael and that is a good indication of where the one time Cheltenham Festival winner is right now. Despite winning at Newton Abbot in September off a mark of 129, he’s become very inconsistent and has also found issues with his jumping, falling twice in his last six runs. He’s another who will want to be handy, but despite that, I find it hard to see him as a player in this, even though he’s hugely well handicapped on some of his form from last year.
De Faoithesdream is another experienced campaigner at the age of 10, but also falls into the ‘inconsistent’ category – he seems to either win or run terrible races. The Evan Williams-trained gelding was last seen winning a Listed handicap chase at Ayr off a mark of 128 and, like many of these, is best when he strides off the front. The jump up to a mark of 134, his highest ever, is not insurmountable, but it does make things much more difficult in a race where he’s not sure to get his own way.
Consistency has been the name of the game though, for Martin Todhunter’s seven-year-old, Monbeg River. He’s finished second on four of his last seven starts and won twice, so a rise in the weights from 105 to 129 doesn’t seem too harsh, even though he’s gone up 7lbs without winning in his last five starts. He was staying on well over the very sharp two miles at Wetherby last time out behind Owen Na View, giving that horse 4lb, so this test will suit better and the booking of Noel Fehily looks a good one. He’s steadily progressive, but whether he’s good enough to mix it at this level is the niggling doubt – it’s a big step up.
Over the years, we’ve seen that Irish entrants in this type of event at this time of year (see Rock The World last year, Black Warrior running well a few weeks ago as just two examples) are always ones to take a lot of notice of. Here, Barry John Murphy sends over his seven-year-old, PAIROFBROWNEYES, who has some very smart form in the book including a second placed finish to Sub Lieutenant at Limerick, who went on to beat Outlander in a Grade 2 Chase at Down Royal after. He was fifth on his seasonal reappearance in the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Gowran Park, staying with some useful rivals such as Ballycasey, Road To Riches and The Game Changer until after the last when his lack of fitness told – that’s some pretty strong form in the context of this race. His decent third place in a 2m4f Grade A handicap chase at the Punchestown festival also reads well as it was won by subsequent Charlie Hall winner Irish Cavalier, again, just weakening late on as the distance stretched him a little. This return to shallower waters and a stiff two miles should be spot on and even though he’d love for the heavens to open, he’s no slouch on decent ground either. A mark of 136 might underestimate him and he wouldn’t be being sent over by a trainer with a very small string unless there was a good chance of coming back with some prize money – he looks a good each-way bet in a race that could be there for the taking.
MY Advice
PAIROFBROWNEYES *- 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (BetVictor)
2.05 Cheltenham – The Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Steeple Chase.
With a roll of honour boasting subsequent Gold Cup winners Denman and Imperial Commander in the last ten years, this is a contest that always gets the pulses racing and this year’s renewal looks to be another high quality affair.
Barters Hill will likely be a warm order and probably deserves his place at the head of the market. Unbeaten in his first seven starts, including the Grade 2 Champion bumper at Aintree and Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, Ben Pauling’s charge suffered his first defeat when fourth in the Albert Bartlett at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. He probably just didn’t quite get home there and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to the extended 2m4f but this is a tough race to be making his chasing debut in and given the number of front runners in the field, it is unlikely that he will be able to bowl along in front as he would like.
With the likely strong pace on offer, it could prove a test of jumping which may well inconvenience the other two chasing debutants in the field. Sizing Tennessee was a fairly smart bumper horse earlier in his career with Willie Mullins and had reportedly schooled well over fences when with Henry de Bromhead. Now with Colin Tizzard, he could well prove a decent chaser but this looks a tough opener for a horse who has had his fitness issues over the years.
O O Seven completes the chasing debutants and he boasts some very smart form over the sticks having finished runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s earlier in the year. His inexperience may just catch him out here while the ground will likely be against him given the two times he has ran on good going, he has been well beaten (for all that they were in the Champion Bumper and Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival).
His stablemate Theinval is a likely outsider but boasts the most experience over the larger obstacles. He shaped well for a long way at Chepstow last time out and will be winning races but looks up against to turn the tables on his re-opposing vanquisher Rock The Kasbah despite an 8lb pull at the weights.
Philip Hobbs’ charge looked supreme in winning on his chasing debut, travelling smoothly and jumping well in the main before finding another gear to forge clear on the run-in. That race looked to be a pretty tough early season contest on paper but he emerged head and shoulders clear of the opposition and entered many a notebook. However, he has the burden of the maximum 8lb penalty for that win and although I believe he can go far in the novice chasing ranks this year, conceding at least 3lb all round may be a step too far against this calibre of opposition.
Flying Angel fell in the contest won by Hobbs’ six-year-old but looked beaten when doing so and despite being a most progressive handicap hurdler last term, doesn’t look to have enough quality to get in the mix here. Therefore, ITS’AFREEBEE is the selection on the back of his debut chase win at Fakenham last month. He won in decent style, as he was entitled to, but it was the way he jumped that really caught the eye as he popped over every obstacle. Granted, his jumping wasn’t put to the test late on, but it still proved to be a decent pipe-opener. He had fairly inauspicious beginnings in bumpers in Ireland before being snapped up by Dan Skelton and embarked on a rapid progression culminating with victory in the Grade 2 Supreme Trial at Haydock. His only defeat on British soil came when a highly respectable third behind Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Neptune (when almost forced out) and with further progress expected, he can lay down a marker in the novice chasing ranks.
MY Advice
ITS’AFREEBEE – 1pt win @ 5/1 (General)
