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Nunthorpe 2021

FinalFurlong91 said:
Let's hope this horse is the airplane ward thinks he is

if he wins this he becomes a virtual certainty to win at the breeders cup too

As that track at del mar will suit him even more
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I agree regards the BC if he can get the job done next week. In the battle between the big two it strikes me as the hype horse against the one with proven form. Ordinarily I’d rather be on the one with the form but on this occasion I’m all aboard the hype train. I would expect the market to reflect the form come the off and Suesa goes off fav unless the (hopefully) continued drying ground and the Frankie factor sway it back the other way. Certainly enjoying the build up so far.

In terms of how GP wins surely he has to blitz from the off, hopefully take Suesa off her feet and build a big enough lead over the first 4 furlongs that he can cling on to in the final one. Basically a better job of what Lady Aurelia tried to do. I don’t fancy GP in a head to head battle up the run in so really hope he has a few lengths on Suesa at the furlong pole. How do others see it going?
 
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Golden Pal only runs one way

he will go out like a bullet from a gun and it's up to the rest to keep up
 
Winter Power blazing off giving GP at nice lead over the first 2 1/2f, just to make sure he doesn't go a mental pace big plus for me.
 
RAMRUMA said:
Winter Power blazing off giving GP at nice lead over the first 2 1/2f, just to make sure he doesn't go a mental pace big plus for me.
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She won't be quick enough to give him a lead

Id be very surprised if he didn't make the running

His early speed in the breeders cup was outrageous even for an American sprinter
 
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looks like a very even draw with pace both sides, Que amoro drawn 11 and our pal GP in 1 and winter power in 6 , any other views on the draw? Suesa got a very good tow into her race from arecebibo at goodwood and they are drawn side by side! :bull_head:
 
Really can’t wait now for The Nunthorpe now. As a big GP backer have to say I’m thinking the York weather/ground has worked out as well as it possibly could considering the weather in the UK this month has been pretty unsettled, and dire weather is expected on Saturday.

Due to the drying ground and a decent enough draw I’m starting to feel reasonably confident. I’m not concerned one iota by the drift today which is fair based on actual form. As mentioned before I’m fully expecting GP to be in front at the 4 furlong marker and I’m now reasonably hopeful the drying ground will help him stay there at the finish.

Should add with 5 places on offer have added Dragon Symbol each way as something of a cover bet and will probably have a small bit on the reverse forecast
 
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7barrows said:
looks like a very even draw with pace both sides, Que amoro drawn 11 and our pal GP in 1 and winter power in 6 , any other views on the draw? Suesa got a very good tow into her race from arecebibo at goodwood and they are drawn side by side! :bull_head:
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Most of the quality pace is low

Golden pal will either win or set such a searing pace that something held up will win

I'm hoping he doesnt see another horse leading all the way

Nothing will be able to go with him the first 3 furlongs just a question of whether he will hold on
 
Not that I follow flat religiously but does anyone know when the last/how common it is for a 2yo to run ?
The weight allowance is huge so I’ve had a speculative ew play Chipotle 25/1 4 places and 20/1 5 places.

I remember the 2yo Magic Ring, back in 1991, being backed into fav and finishing 3rd in the L’Abbaye but not sure many/any have been able to topple their elders…
 
Golden Pal has everything in his favour today, hopefully he can justify the hype and regard he is held in!

Ground now good to firm, good in places.

As others have said I don’t see anything living with him from the gates and next couple furlongs. If he’s stronger and faster as Ward thinks he is nobody should peg him back on a flat 5f track imo.
 
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Istabraq said:
Not that I follow flat religiously but does anyone know when the last/how common it is for a 2yo to run ?
The weight allowance is huge so I’ve had a speculative ew play Chipotle 25/1 4 places and 20/1 5 places.

I remember the 2yo Magic Ring, back in 1991, being backed into fav and finishing 3rd in the L’Abbaye but not sure many/any have been able to topple their elders…
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The last 2-y-o to win was in 2007 before that 1992 and 3 in the 50s
 
That was disappointing, he burst and looked to be going well, then found absolutely zilch!

Credit to Winter Power who stayed within a length of Golden Pal and she found plenty.
 
Awesome levels of anticipation, very low level of performance by Golden Pal. No real complaints as had his optimum conditions and just about the worst realistic scenario of him blazing a trail but finding little played out.

Despite the disappointing performance I can actually understand why Wesley thinks GP is the fastest horse he has ever had, unfortunately it’s the case for 3-4 furlongs only which ain’t going to be enough to win a race of this calibre. If you screen shot a replay at around the 3f pole GP is literally in a different parish to Suesa at the time. The only thing I would say is you would think a trainer of Wesley’s experience would have maybe acknowledged the fact that while GP was his fastest ever over the first few furlongs there was no guarantees he would be able to keep it up for the full 5 at the highest level. This appeared a distinct possibility during his win at the Breeders Cup last year as he appeared to be running on fumes in the final furlong. Anyway it was great that he came over to take his chance which really added to the build up. It was also a stark reminder that while every hype horse has its price you do need to be careful going in at shorter prices when the form isn’t really there to justify it.

Should add I cashed all my GP Breeders Cups bets and roll ups for an 8-20% loss. Really hard to get too excited for for that race although a bend in the track may well help him a bit.
 
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ITV racing (Hoiles) did a sectional analysis of this race yesterday. In none of the five furlongs was Winter Power the fastest horse in the race. The fastest furlong(s) were in the middle of the race by Suesa et al who were trying to make up ground from the back. Hoiles noted he'd never seen a field so strung out (12l) after just a furlong. In the middle of the race Suesa clocked times faster than Battaash for the same section of the race when Battaash set the course record. Being drawn closer to the pace suited Winter Power whose jockey rode it well!
 
Supermaster said:
ITV racing (Hoiles) did a sectional analysis of this race yesterday. In none of the five furlongs was Winter Power the fastest horse in the race. The fastest furlong(s) were in the middle of the race by Suesa et al who were trying to make up ground from the back. Hoiles noted he'd never seen a field so strung out (12l) after just a furlong. In the middle of the race Suesa clocked times faster than Battaash for the same section of the race when Battaash set the course record. Being drawn closer to the pace suited Winter Power whose jockey rode it well!
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Any reports on if she goes to the Breeders cup?
 
Supermaster said:
ITV racing (Hoiles) did a sectional analysis of this race yesterday. In none of the five furlongs was Winter Power the fastest horse in the race. The fastest furlong(s) were in the middle of the race by Suesa et al who were trying to make up ground from the back. Hoiles noted he'd never seen a field so strung out (12l) after just a furlong. In the middle of the race Suesa clocked times faster than Battaash for the same section of the race when Battaash set the course record. Being drawn closer to the pace suited Winter Power whose jockey rode it well!
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I really enjoyed this analysis. One thing I took from it was that the chasing pack expended too much energy too soon as they were concerned with the lead GP and WP had built up. As a result they didn’t have enough left for the final furlong to threaten WP who had conserved his energy well mid race.
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Ward says he's running at saratoga as a prep run before coming over and confirmed he's on target for it

I have also taken 10s on him to win the breeders cup turf sprint

I dont buy that battaash wasn't fit for ascot, dont like the way he hung across the track when asked for his effort

Was like he was still feeling a niggle
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Golden pal is now 6/4-15/8 for the breeders cup after comfortably winning his prep run at keeneland
 
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FinalFurlong91 said:
Golden pal is now 6/4-15/8 for the breeders cup after comfortably winning his prep run at keeneland
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What did you make of the race FF? …not the usual blast off and looked to be struggling 2 out before filling his lungs and pulling clear again… I’m on for the BC too and despite the price cut I’m not sure how happy I was post race?
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Golden pal is now 6/4-15/8 for the breeders cup after comfortably winning his prep run at keeneland
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Golden Pal did everyone a favour last year but the form of that race is disappointing and his Nunthorpe run very underwhelming. Back on home soil, he could still prove to be the horse that Ward thinks he is but I'll be playing Emaaraty Ana EW.
 
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