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Novice Chasers 2027

Mighty Park and King Rasko Grey both entered in a beginners chase on Saturday over 2m1f

Both also entered on the Sunday over 2m 4f as well.

Can see no entry for Narciso Has
 
Prestbury said:
Mighty Park and King Rasko Grey both entered in a beginners chase on Saturday over 2m1f

Both also entered on the Sunday over 2m 4f as well.

Can see no entry for Narciso Has
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Likely to be split you'd think?
 
Lobos said:
Likely to be split you'd think?
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If they both run then you'd expect so. Willie has multiple entries:

2m1f
Free Spirit
King Rasko
Kopeck De Mee
Mighty Park
Saint Baco

2m4f
Espresso Milan
Hens Tooth
King Rasko
Kopeck De Mee
Mighty Park
Saint Baco
 
Cobden likely to ride at Cheltenham on Saturday
 
….Storm Heart cut 25-1 BANC by 365 after that win, still 40-1 Lads.
 
Are the fences easy at fairyhouse does anyone know? I remember that's where jimmy du seuil looked so good last year before his jumping went to pieces afterwards.

Just a bit sceptical as storm heart was one who didn't appeal to me at all going chasing. He didn't look scopey at all when jumping hurdles.
 
riccirich said:
Are the fences easy at fairyhouse does anyone know? I remember that's where jimmy du seuil looked so good last year before his jumping went to pieces afterwards.

Just a bit sceptical as storm heart was one who didn't appeal to me at all going chasing. He didn't look scopey at all when jumping hurdles.
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This is a bit simplistic as it just looks at the rate of fallers/unseats across all chases since 2019. It doesn't take into account field sizes (generally more fallers in bigger fields), the number of novice races (more fallers in novice races) or race class or going. But directionally might help - seems to show that most tracks are in the 7%-8% faller range but the big two tracks have a higher faller rate:

Leopardstown : 10.5% faller rate (1509 runners, 103 fallers, 56 unseated)
Punchestown : 10.1% (3374 / 207 /135)
Naas : 9.2% (1137 / 70 / 35)
Killarney : 8.4% (1346 / 78 / 35)
Thurles : 8.2% (1835 / 95 / 56)
Limerick : 7.8% (1869 / 87 / 58)
Fairyhouse : 7.7% (2850 / 135 / 84)
Galway : 7.7% (1397 / 61 / 46)
Navan : 7.2% (1377 / 66 / 33)
Gowran : 7.2% (1084 / 46 / 32)
Tramore : 6.9% (1910 / 85 / 46)
Wexford : 6.6% (2043 / 72 / 63)
Kilbeggan : 4.8% (1591 / 46 / 31)
 
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riccirich said:
Are the fences easy at fairyhouse does anyone know? I remember that's where jimmy du seuil looked so good last year before his jumping went to pieces afterwards.

Just a bit sceptical as storm heart was one who didn't appeal to me at all going chasing. He didn't look scopey at all when jumping hurdles.
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….he did finish that 2m 4f race very well.

Lads still holding out with that 40-1, looks like they’re taking a view on him. Looking at the race itself, from what I see Mullins hasn’t won it in recent times, Elliott has and did so with Gerri Colombe before he came 2nd in the BANC.
 
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From my experience, I'd say that Fairyhouse is seen as a fair chasing course. Fences a reasonable but not harsh challenge and not placed in tricky positions. Willie happily starts novices there.
 
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Looking at those stats it seems pretty standard then compared to the rest. Just had that jimmy du seuil run in my head, and looking at the race today the fences looked small enough, but maybe could be the camera angle.

Not so much storm hearts ability I'd be questioning, I think he's a decent horse and thought he could have ran well in a stayers hurdle last season. But his jumping has never looked great to me over hurdles, and wasn't expecting him to make a good chaser, and still probably don't think he will even after today. Was noticeably out jumped at a good few, and have a suspicion that in better races his jumping will fall apart. But has the ability to be a player if it doesn't imo.
 
riccirich said:
Looking at those stats it seems pretty standard then compared to the rest. Just had that jimmy du seuil run in my head, and looking at the race today the fences looked small enough, but maybe could be the camera angle.

Not so much storm hearts ability I'd be questioning, I think he's a decent horse and thought he could have ran well in a stayers hurdle last season. But his jumping has never looked great to me over hurdles, and wasn't expecting him to make a good chaser, and still probably don't think he will even after today. Was noticeably out jumped at a good few, and have a suspicion that in better races his jumping will fall apart. But has the ability to be a player if it doesn't imo.
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I was not disappointed with Ballyfad. He jumped really well and I could see him reversing that form at a course like Cheltenham over a longer trip.
 
riccirich said:
Are the fences easy at fairyhouse does anyone know? I remember that's where jimmy du seuil looked so good last year before his jumping went to pieces afterwards.

Just a bit sceptical as storm heart was one who didn't appeal to me at all going chasing. He didn't look scopey at all when jumping hurdles.
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He wasn’t overly fluent today at a few, he did lose a bit of ground….brushed aside Ballyfad nicely when it mattered though.
 
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