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Novice Chasers 2027

….P Mullins;

Anzadam made a taking start to his career over fence at Navan when running out a seven-length winner of the Into Kildare Beginners Chase.

“He was fantastic and the difference is he was running in a beginners’ chase. He was a stone or more well-in against his rivals while Kopek was against a top horse in Irish Panther,” Mullins said.

“Anzadam is obviously a bit harder on himself at home and gets himself ready a bit quicker as a result. He settled fantastically on Sunday which we hoped fences would do for him. In a chase race there are more jumps, they’re bigger and it just makes a horse get back on their hocks a bit, and concentrate more. He looked like a horse who settled great and jumped well, a little out to his left perhaps, but nothing major. He was entitled to do what he did on his hurdles form, but it just opens up the chance we can get to the bottom of his potential now. I don’t think we ever did that over hurdles.”
 
Quevega said:
That's because the evidence and what has gone before has shown that potential more often prevails.
Particularly when it comes to unexposed novice hurdlers stepping into novice chasing company.

With regards Anzadam ? Whilst he could improve for jumping fences, do you think he improved as a hurdler last season ? (I'd say not at all)
And how would you rate his debut in terms of jumping vs crystal today ? ( 6or7 out of ten vs 9/10 for me)

IMO - I'd say that Crystal is already ahead in terms of jumping ability and less than 5 or 6lbs (ish) behind on ability, after just the three outings under rules.

So being a similar price is reasonable enough for me anyway :)

edit - forgot to add, they are both a little too short.
It's silly season at the moment as not all contenders have been out and hardly any have contested serious or graded races yet.

It's the enemy of the common punter with FOMO and recency bias in overdrive.
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It's all relative. Cristal has won a match race when allowed to do what he wanted in front and his main rival from a yard who are probably thinking handicaps rather than graded races with their horse. Anzadam has beat a grade 1 and a grade 2 novice hurdle winner pretty comfortably and has shown his jumping can hold up when having to sit in. His jumping was perfectly acceptable for the challenge he faced. Not as good as Cristal's, but equally, his task was a lot tougher compared to the Derham runner. Trainer has even admitted that his horse needs to have a real race which is why the Henry VIII has been suggested for him next.

Kargese in theory had three seasons hurdling (Won as a 3yo in March and April), with a similar theory to Gaelic Warrior also (First run in France 21st April) so 2 or 3 years hurdling, especially coming from France, doesn't seem to do any harm towards a chase career like it may of done in the past.
 
Runragged said:
It's all relative. Cristal has won a match race when allowed to do what he wanted in front and his main rival from a yard who are probably thinking handicaps rather than graded races with their horse. Anzadam has beat a grade 1 and a grade 2 novice hurdle winner pretty comfortably and has shown his jumping can hold up when having to sit in. His jumping was perfectly acceptable for the challenge he faced. Not as good as Cristal's, but equally, his task was a lot tougher compared to the Derham runner. Trainer has even admitted that his horse needs to have a real race which is why the Henry VIII has been suggested for him next.

Kargese in theory had three seasons hurdling (Won as a 3yo in March and April), with a similar theory to Gaelic Warrior also (First run in France 21st April) so 2 or 3 years hurdling, especially coming from France, doesn't seem to do any harm towards a chase career like it may of done in the past.
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You can certainly make a case that Anzadam should be shorter than Cristal D in the market - i.e. rated higher over hurdles, likely beat a better field in his beginner chase. But equally you can make the same case against Narciso Has for example who is even shorter and yet to run over fences.

We know why Anzadam's price is holding up - generally you are looking for a horse capable of producing an RPR (or equivalent) of 165+ and Anzadam has not been able to achieve a hurdles RPR in the 160s despite 5 opportunities at open Grade 1 level. Of course horses can improve for fences but this seeming plateauing of his ability, his temperament and sketchy jumping at times over hurdles together with not the tidiest round ever of jumping on his chase debut means that the markets retain some scepticism.

On the overall market, the top 6 in the betting (3 whom we have seen over fences and 3 whom we haven't) are taking 80% out of the book (about 72% on the exchange for buttons). On the face of it this is quite defensive pricing but if you go down the rest of the market there are a lot quoted who are either not expected to go chasing or expected to go up in trip. Given that the Arkle in recent years has tended to have pretty small fields (averaging less than 8 runners since 2020) I wouldn't want to be laying bigger prices on horses like Cristal D that are i) being aimed here, ii) have shown they can jump (pretty well) and iii) have a level of form in the book that doesn't require bucketloads of improvement.
 
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….only a few holding onto 14-1 Cristal D’estruval, the 18-1 Hills special is a bit of a standout.
 
Lobos said:
Harry Derham winning the Arkle /Stayers then
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It's going to be a big year for him I think. He will have some class all over the place. I think he is very good and he has got some good ammunition. It's why I've not given up on Clondaw Park. She was unlucky and immature rather than not good enough last season. Soon find out if I'm right or not though. She appears to be ready to come out.
 
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PP now go 4/6 Kabral and 2/1 OPS for Saturdays Arkle trial at Cheltenham. OPS been backed in the last few hours so some hope that he might run.
 
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Just watched the replay of Cristal D'estruval from earlier today, sure was good, a proper smart one he looks like.

Seems pretty pointless comparing Cristal with Anzadam. It's only because they were a day apart people are doing so. Barely any mention of Kabral who has already been out and bolted up and is a whole lot shorter than the aforementioned pair in the Arkle market.

It was a match up today for Cristal, and he dictated pretty much after the first fence. Be Aware will have his day, I'm sure, probably when going out in trip, IMO, but he looked big enough today to my eye at least.

I'm sure the majority of the forum are on Cristal and/or Anzadam at big prices so it's just nice to be up and running with a couple of big priced horses.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Just watched the replay of Cristal D'estruval from earlier today, sure was good, a proper smart one he looks like.

Seems pretty pointless comparing Cristal with Anzadam. It's only because they were a day apart people are doing so. Barely any mention of Kabral who has already been out and bolted up and is a whole lot shorter than the aforementioned pair in the Arkle market.

It was a match up today for Cristal, and he dictated pretty much after the first fence. Be Aware will have his day, I'm sure, probably when going out in trip, IMO, but he looked big enough today to my eye at least.

I'm sure the majority of the forum are on Cristal and/or Anzadam at big prices so it's just nice to be up and running with a couple of big priced horses.
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Do you think the 18/1 in the hills specials is still a decent price for cristal ? I was toying with the idea of backing him for the Arkle before today's race but decided to leave it, regretting that decision now !
 
Danman said:
Do you think the 18/1 in the hills specials is still a decent price for cristal ? I was toying with the idea of backing him for the Arkle before today's race but decided to leave it, regretting that decision now !
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Depends how you want to play the market and what accounts you have. I would be more inclined to look for a WTAF bet when he next runs. Should be a competitive enough race that you will get bigger if you want him on side.
 
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OPS participation will depend on how much rain they get Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning . If they get the upper amount forecasted on top of watered ground then I reckon he'll turn up.

Really hope so as I'm there on Saturday!
 
Danman said:
Do you think the 18/1 in the hills specials is still a decent price for cristal ? I was toying with the idea of backing him for the Arkle before today's race but decided to leave it, regretting that decision now !
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I think he's a serious horse, and I really like his sire. His novice hurdle form puts him bang there too. His maiden hurdle win could barely look any better, with Baron Noir in 2nd and Bossman Jack in 3rd that day and look what they both achieved last season. He's got a lot going for him.

One question. Can his trainer have him ready for the big day? He's inexperienced when it comes to that, but I'm sure it's only a matter of time before Derham starts hitting those regular big day winners.
 
Runragged said:
Depends how you want to play the market and what accounts you have. I would be more inclined to look for a WTAF bet when he next runs. Should be a competitive enough race that you will get bigger if you want him on side.
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They are talking Henry VIII which could include OPS and/or Kabral and/or Sinnatra so the WTAF will be bigger.
 
Whether they water the ground or not, I'd say the chances of Hendo running against the second fav in the Arkle market on chase debut are slim to none
 
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