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Novice Chasers 2027

OPS back out to 3's with Unibet and everyone else bar Hills (11/4). Would that be because of Anzadam?
 
Cristal D'estruval up against Be Aware tomorrow. Both currently 10/11, ridiculous odds but it's not a betting race. Be Aware is a fair yard stick first time up for Cristal and he looked very promising over hurdles. Got a keen interest in this one.
 
On the times it was a very good performance from Anzadam

From the first down the back

Anzadam 11st12
Irish Panther 11st1

They've gone across the line together (Anzadam race 2 out was bypassed)
 
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darlojim said:
On the times it was a very good performance from Anzadam

From the first down the back

Anzadam 11st12
Irish Panther 11st1

They've gone across the line together (Anzadam race 2 out was bypassed)
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Nice perspective
 
….well Cristal D’estruval can certainly jump.

Lads immediately cut to 25-1, 365 go 14-1 Arkle.
 
Black Dog said:
Looks a proper one to me.
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I agree - 25/1 after the race was a big price (still 20/1). On strict ratings he has beaten a 147 horse by 12 lengths receiving 4 lb giving him a mark in the low 150s. The question is to what extent Be Aware has run to his rating given i) he was weak in the market and ii) its likely that Skelton has handicap plans for him. The other runner in the race has been beaten 40 lengths in receipt of 7lb so although only rated 119 going into the race this still gives Crystal D a rating in excess of 150. He jumped pretty well for a first time over fences and a strict reading of his novice hurdle defeat of Baron Noir puts him amongst the Supreme contenders. I'd have him shorter.
 
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It was good but was a match race and you just don't know whether the other horse has run to form. One of those that if you have backed him already you are pleased, but you wouldn't be rushing out to back him now. Importantly, for a horse who was having just his third run under rules, you would be looking at him getting a full season of racing in as he will lack serious experience compared to majority he will be against.
 
Yea. He was 50s at the off. And he's won a match race against a horse that probably wasn't trying. 16s now is tight enough, in what's shaping up to be potentially a very competitive division all of a sudden.
 
Runragged said:
It was good but was a match race and you just don't know whether the other horse has run to form. One of those that if you have backed him already you are pleased, but you wouldn't be rushing out to back him now. Importantly, for a horse who was having just his third run under rules, you would be looking at him getting a full season of racing in as he will lack serious experience compared to majority he will be against.
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He definitely will need more experience as even his 3 runs haven't been overly competitive (todays having only 2 opponents and one of his hurdle runs he was 1/14fav). My biggest worry with him is that he missed a big chunk (the business end) of last season (Narciso Has in same boat) and I hope he is not one of these fragile types that can't string a few races together. He is in to a top price of 14/1 now which is more like it.
 
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Despite having been off the track since, Cristal d’Estruval was a 2-5 favourite to dispatch of just two rivals on his return to Cumbria and he could hardly have been more impressive, producing some prodigious leaps under Paul O’Brien and seeing off the 147-rated Be Aware by 12 lengths.

“He’s very exciting. I was absolutely devastated last season when he had to miss a bit of time, but he was a big horse and it probably saved him having a few hard races in the spring,” Derham told Racing TV.

“From the moment we bought him I thought ‘chaser’ and when we schooled him that sort of confirmed it. I brought him up here thinking he’d need the run and if he got beat by a more experienced one he could run in a beginners’ chase in a month’s time and that wouldn’t do him any harm at all.

“I don’t mean to sound cocky, but I’m not surprised to see him do what he’s done because he’s been impressive in what he’s shown me and I was just thrilled with how he jumped. He was in a lovely rhythm and enjoying himself. It was obviously hugely pleasing.”

Betway make Cristal d’Estruval a 20-1 shot for the Arkle Trophy and his Cheltenham credentials are likely to be tested on Tingle Creek day at Sandown next month.

Derham added: “He just has a high cruising speed I think. We didn’t force him, he just had his ears pricked and has that rhythm, doesn’t he?

“I think probably the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (December 5) is next. I still have it in my mind that he’s not had a real race, as in he’s not been in amongst it, and I feel like he’s probably still got a lot to learn, but I think he has that level of ability.

“You’d have to say he’d probably be quite exciting to watch around Sandown. I’m not sure I’d enjoy it, but I think Paul riding him would!

“The key is that he’s OK. Obviously he missed a good chunk of last year, so as long as he’s all right and he comes forward as I anticipate, I think we’ll go to Sandown.”
 
He keeps jumping like that then he'll go a long way.
Not one I've backed but would like to have.
Tried on the exchange a few weeks back but no takers.
I'll take my chances and take it on the chin with him now at the prices (too short now)
More than likely one that is in and around but not the best.
 
Same price as Anzadam which I find odd. People seem to always favour potential over proven ability though.
 
Benjy23 said:
Yea. He was 50s at the off. And he's won a match race against a horse that probably wasn't trying. 16s now is tight enough, in what's shaping up to be potentially a very competitive division all of a sudden.
Click to expand...

….66-1 WTAF.
 
Delighted. My Arkle book is looking as sexy as me, which is quite frankly an impossible ask but it's close. Been very keen on this one for a while. Need to nip Sober Glory in the bud an I can leave it alone. There could still be value left out of that race in the shape of Baron Noir of the British challenge. With normal improvement from a stable that improves horses for fences, his form ties nicely in with Cristal.
 
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Runragged said:
Same price as Anzadam which I find odd. People seem to always favour potential over proven ability though.
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That's because the evidence and what has gone before has shown that potential more often prevails.
Particularly when it comes to unexposed novice hurdlers stepping into novice chasing company.

With regards Anzadam ? Whilst he could improve for jumping fences, do you think he improved as a hurdler last season ? (I'd say not at all)
And how would you rate his debut in terms of jumping vs crystal today ? ( 6or7 out of ten vs 9/10 for me)

IMO - I'd say that Crystal is already ahead in terms of jumping ability and less than 5 or 6lbs (ish) behind on ability, after just the three outings under rules.

So being a similar price is reasonable enough for me anyway :)

edit - forgot to add, they are both a little too short.
It's silly season at the moment as not all contenders have been out and hardly any have contested serious or graded races yet.

It's the enemy of the common punter with FOMO and recency bias in overdrive.
 
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Just caught up with the race today
That was some jumping performance from CD .
Not sure how he will compare with others as the season progresses, but doubt we will see much better jumping from them.
 
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