Novice Chasers 2027

[Quevega]

I think if they go down the 2 mile route they'd be making a mistake.
It looks a tougher division in the UK for a start.

I also think that he doesn't look scopey or classy enough for 2 miles at grade 1 level.
He also jumps low and economically when he meets one right. It usually helps to jump like that using less energy in the longer trips, especially for smaller types with less muscle in the front end. I think at 2 miles you generally need class and power up front.

Can obviously be outliers from time to time though.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think they'd be mad to go 3 miles at this stage. Maybe the novice handicap will be his race this season, followed by the Manifesto.

 

[Odddog]

It will be interesting to see where they go next with Taurus Bay. They could go back in trip and up in grade for the Henry VIII at Sandown, at least that would tell them whether he can compete at the very top over 2 miles. Maybe the Scilly Isles Novices Chase, also at Sandown but half a mile further, might be a sensible target - late Jan or early Feb I think. Then on to Aintree for the Manifesto.

 

[Runragged]

Yeah, not convinced dropping back to 2m would be right. Maybe Xmas is a bit soon for stepping up to 3m. Wouldn't rule out BANC though considering the race has gone to some pacier types of late. Should be options to keep to 2 1/2m for now.

 

[Eggs]

Yeah, not convinced dropping back to 2m would be right. Maybe Xmas is a bit soon for stepping up to 3m. Wouldn't rule out BANC though considering the race has gone to some pacier types of late. Should be options to keep to 2 1/2m for now.

Pauling said: "He won his two novice hurdles last season, ran a mighty race in the gloom at Cheltenham and that race left its mark. I wanted him to go to the big occasion and get experience, we always knew he had a lot of ability.

"That was a good race, Ben said he took a blow.

"I was amazed, ours have just needed it getting into a battle. He hasn't had an away day, you wouldn't want to do too much early doors in the season.

"He's a quick horse, whether we go two or two-and-a-half we'll play it by ear."

Jones said: "He has gone below the radar, I've loved him from day dot. I said let's be brave and it happened.

"Very smart. Hopefully he can go onto bigger and better things."

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Disappointing from No Drama This End, but he looked like a 3m chaser and tried to do it the hard way on seasonal debut. I'd suggest he wasn't fully wound up, and I'll judge him over further next time out.

I can cash out for stakes back but not tempted to at this stage.

Regarding Taurus Bay I reckon he'll end up in the handicap chase myself. Got some early prize money in the kitty now work on that mark. Could obviously end up wrong though.

 

[Benjy23]

Aye, you just run in the two and half miler, even off top weight don't you... Gold Dancer was 2nd off top weight last year (albeit with a claimer). Even if beaten by one better handicapped it's the best option for them.

Bit early for this talk but looks like one that's be out classed in an Arkle and outstayed in a BANC.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Aye, you just run in the two and half miler, even off top weight don't you... Gold Dancer was 2nd off top weight last year (albeit with a claimer). Even if beaten by one better handicapped it's the best option for them.

Bit early for this talk but looks like one that's be out classed in an Arkle and outstayed in a BANC.

Koktail Divin should have done exactly the same last season.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Aye, you just run in the two and half miler, even off top weight don't you... Gold Dancer was 2nd off top weight last year (albeit with a claimer). Even if beaten by one better handicapped it's the best option for them.

Bit early for this talk but looks like one that's be out classed in an Arkle and outstayed in a BANC.

Just think if it's a horses trip then it's his trip. A 4f swing either way at the top level and even lower level can make a big difference. If they had just left the JLT, or whatever it was called, as it was then we wouldn't have to have these conversations.

 

[Benjy23]

Koktail Divin should have done exactly the same last season.

Aye, wouldn't have even been top weight either.

Caldwell Potter must have been on a reasonably high mark the year before as well. And a few more lb wouldn't have stopped him either.

If you've got a novice that's best over two and a half then I think you just ignore it being a handicap. Come back for the Ryanair following year...

 

[Quevega]

The novice chase will be informative today.
at least 4 of the runners Anzadam will face were well beat by the first 3 in the Supreme, so it will be good to see how Anzadam ranks alongside those. Although a little tenuous it'll be useful nonetheless.
Think Anzadam will win handily enough as the form and betting suggests, as long as he jumps efficiently.

 

[Runragged]

Just think if it's a horses trip then it's his trip. A 4f swing either way at the top level and even lower level can make a big difference. If they had just left the JLT, or whatever it was called, as it was then we wouldn't have to have these conversations.

I think you are forgetting the prestige of the graded races. You can attempt the grade 1 Arkle or BANC or you have a class 1 handicap. You also have significantly more prize money. Koktail Divin has been mentioned but arguably his BANC run didn't do him any harm and at least connections know he doesn't stay.

 

[darlojim]

The novice chase will be informative today.
at least 4 of the runners Anzadam will face were well beat by the first 3 in the Supreme, so it will be good to see how Anzadam ranks alongside those. Although a little tenuous it'll be useful nonetheless.
Think Anzadam will win handily enough as the form and betting suggests, as long as he jumps efficiently.

Here's a thought

What price does Anzadam go if -

A - he jumps nice and sharp
B - wins by say 5L, with the others seemingly run their race

5 - 6/1?

 

[Kauto’s star]

Here's a thought

What price does Anzadam go if -

A - he jumps nice and sharp
B - wins by say 5L, with the others seemingly run their race

5 - 6/1?

Maybe closer to 8s? But imo surely he’s an absolute shoe in today if he jumps. Evens seems quite big to me. He has loads on the rivals on hurdles form. If he jumps he bolts up. Even with all that empty space between his ears

 

[Runragged]

Here's a thought

What price does Anzadam go if -

A - he jumps nice and sharp
B - wins by say 5L, with the others seemingly run their race

5 - 6/1?

Obviously depends, but in your example I would say 8/1 or so, maybe a bit of 10s if quick and with the right account. I think there are plenty of people that have been stung in the past on the horse and won't bet him no matter what. There is also the argument of if he can do it at the top level having flattered to deceive in grade 1s.

 

[darlojim]

Obviously depends, but in your example I would say 8/1 or so, maybe a bit of 10s if quick and with the right account. I think there are plenty of people that have been stung in the past on the horse and won't bet him no matter what. There is also the argument of if he can do it at the top level having flattered to deceive in grade 1s.

Yeah fair point, but on the other hand could easily see people that have followed him through getting sucked in plenty again (i am already one of those ) I wouldn't see any reason why he should be bigger than Kabral in the market with an impressive win today though.

 

[Quevega]

Here's a thought

What price does Anzadam go if -

A - he jumps nice and sharp
B - wins by say 5L, with the others seemingly run their race

5 - 6/1?

He shouldn't shorten to single figures IMO in that scenario. Not from a starting point of 33-1.
But as he'll only be second of the 150+ rated hurdlers to show his hand then he might.
My best guess would be around the 10-12-1 mark though if he wins like you describe.

 

[Runragged]

Yeah fair point, but on the other hand could easily see people that have followed him through getting sucked in plenty again (i am already one of those ) I wouldn't see any reason why he should be bigger than Kabral in the market with an impressive win today though.

He's one of those you wouldn't want to take a short price on for the Arkle but happy to have a stab at a big price. For book builders he should be a must as he has the class over hurdles, he just need to show that over fences.

 

[darlojim]

He's one of those you wouldn't want to take a short price on for the Arkle but happy to have a stab at a big price. For book builders he should be a must as he has the class over hurdles, he just need to show that over fences.

I think today he's either going to be like a Dysart Dynamo chase debut esque

or an absolute disaster at his fences, no inbetween

 

[Runragged]

I think today he's either going to be like a Dysart Dynamo chase debut esque

or an absolute disaster at his fences, no inbetween

It's worth considering that this is the first time Townend has ridden him since the Fighting Fifth. A significant upgrade from Patrick whilst Cobden and Danny Mullins were both having their first rides on him in their respective races.