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November meeting

D

Dilinja

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Joined
Feb 15, 2022
Messages
114
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28
Points
28
Location
Ireland
I see Gary Nutting as put up Galahad Quest for the paddy power on Saturday. Must have a decent chance. Also like Midnight River
 
Simply The Betts looks to have a good handicap mark based on his best form. Good course record. PN in great form and he says the horse is too. Owner takes a further 3lbs off his back . A nice working man's Price @ 20/1
 
Going to try a lucky 15 for today's card

The Glancing Queen 1.45
Pull Again Green 2.20
Ballyandy 2.55
Music Drive 3.30

First time ive posted my line soHopefully a winner or two. Best of Luck
 
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Cormier @ 25/1 in the Greatwood is a good bet IMO. Brian Ellison has booked a conditional to take 7 off and is trying to repeat his feat with Nietzsche back in 2018 where he won the race for the same connections using a conditional. One of Cormier's best runs came in the Welsh Champion hurdle after a summer on the flat. He subsequently ran flat in the Greatwood the following year, but has good race experience for a 6 year old. He beat the now very well backed Severance at Cheltenham in Jan giving away weight and I think 25's is completely the wrong price. This will be his third stint back over hurdles coming off the flat. In 2020 his flat mark was high 50's low 60's, culminating in a 130 hurdle rating. In 2021 his flat mark was high 60's then high 70's, culminating in a 139 hurdle rating. This year he's been running off a flat mark of 88 and goes to Cheltenham off a mark of 138 with a conditional taking 7lbs off his back. He's a horse on an upwards curve, he's definitely well handicapped and this is clearly the plan for a trainer who has won the race before. I am very confident.
 
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Shocking selections and got my fingers burnt with Music Drive. Only way is up tomorrow
 
Looking at the races tomorrow and a name popped out: Nickle Back.

Was that the horse that was mentioned a lot on the forum last year for the Ballymore?

Given a handicap mark of 134 but was originally given a RPR of 143 for his win last year (now downgraded to 140).

134 could look a good mark tomorrow. A year off and it might just be a careful ride round to give him a sighter at Cheltenham.

14/1 is a fair price but if they think he's got some room with that mark, they could ride him cold, get him fit and increase his rating slightly and aim for the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe with him.
 
DenmanSacre said:
Looking at the races tomorrow and a name popped out: Nickle Back.

Was that the horse that was mentioned a lot on the forum last year for the Ballymore?

Given a handicap mark of 134 but was originally given a RPR of 143 for his win last year (now downgraded to 140).

134 could look a good mark tomorrow. A year off and it might just be a careful ride round to give him a sighter at Cheltenham.

14/1 is a fair price but if they think he's got some room with that mark, they could ride him cold, get him fit and increase his rating slightly and aim for the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe with him.
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Yeah I spotted him yesterday, I’d backed him for the Ballymore.

He’s a bigger price than I thought he’d be so I’m tempted to chuck a few pence at him just in case, but I think you’re probably right that they’ll be running him for a bit of fitness after such a layoff.

Certainly one to keep an eye on!
 
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charlie said:
Cormier @ 25/1 in the Greatwood is a good bet IMO. Brian Ellison has booked a conditional to take 7 off and is trying to repeat his feat with Nietzsche back in 2018 where he won the race for the same connections using a conditional. One of Cormier's best runs came in the Welsh Champion hurdle after a summer on the flat. He subsequently ran flat in the Greatwood the following year, but has good race experience for a 6 year old. He beat the now very well backed Severance at Cheltenham in Jan giving away weight and I think 25's is completely the wrong price. This will be his third stint back over hurdles coming off the flat. In 2020 his flat mark was high 50's low 60's, culminating in a 130 hurdle rating. In 2021 his flat mark was high 60's then high 70's, culminating in a 139 hurdle rating. This year he's been running off a flat mark of 88 and goes to Cheltenham off a mark of 138 with a conditional taking 7lbs off his back. He's a horse on an upwards curve, he's definitely well handicapped and this is clearly the plan for a trainer who has won the race before. I am very confident.
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Ben Bromley seems to be excellent value for that 7lb
 
Edwardstone a doubt for the Shloer Chase tomorrow, time to pile onto Nube Negra even more heavily!
 
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Yeah, Nube now fav on exchanges
Shloer Chase, used to look forward to this race every year... what a pile of rubbish it is
Either the trainers need to catch on and start training horses over better ground, or we move the campaign out (re: how dry Oct and Nov have been over recent years)

So many valuable races that I'm sure others will catch on, Nicholls already benefiting from this approach
 
Pentland Hills being ignored a little in Arkle trial. Better over Hurdles than these. 5/1 looks far too big.
 
Banbridge very impressive. Great run from ga law. Hitman is a cracking price for the king George, especially with Allaho out
 
Going down tomorrow, can’t wait. Fantastikas, Gin Coco & Fennors Cross the 3 for me.
 
opatcho said:
Yeah, Nube now fav on exchanges
Shloer Chase, used to look forward to this race every year... what a pile of rubbish it is
Either the trainers need to catch on and start training horses over better ground, or we move the campaign out (re: how dry Oct and Nov have been over recent years)

So many valuable races that I'm sure others will catch on, Nicholls already benefiting from this approach
Click to expand...

Alan King using his tactics he uses for trueshan on the flat it seems, blame it on the ground if youre too scared to run
 
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