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Nicky Henderson Stable Tour

NJH will send a big team to work at Kempton on Friday including Captain Conan, Josses Hill, Kid Cassidy, Oscar Whisky and Royal Irish Hussar

NJH will send a team of 6 to work at 6am @RacesNewbury on Sunday including Bobs Worth, Captain Cutter, Triolo D'Alene and Royal Boy.

NJH 'I know Bobs Worth is small, but he's not as small as he looks. He will work at Newbury on Sunday'.

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Tistory will have conditions in his favour for the Register Now For WearAHat Day Novices' Hurdle.

The seven-year-old has certainly had his share of problems since joining the champion trainer, clocking up the vets bills for his owner, but he is in very good form at the moment and ready to add to his win at Towcester in the early weeks of the season.

He was beaten on his latest attempt at Newbury 10 weeks ago, but he was only just run out of it in the soft ground after a good battle with the useful Brother Brian and was also just in need of the outing after his lay-off.

Mayfair Music is another Henderson inmate to have missed the bulk of the winter in the wait for better ground and she can make the most of the fact she is a fresh horse in the Listed William Hill - Bet On The Move Mares' Novices' Hurdle .

She lacks the experience of some of her rivals, but she shows plenty of ability at home and she should be well up to holding her own at this high level.
 
from earlier this week.

The jumpers are coming :)

 
From Open Day via @paulfergusonJTF

West Wizard once again touted as a leading novice hurdle prospect for the yard, while Newbury winner Gaitway also gets a positive mention.

Top Notch, Peace And Co & JP's purchase Hargam feature among a "high class" bunch of French juvenile recruits

French recruit Son Du Berlais will have the Persian War as his first target, as he's a novice until the end of Oct

Vaniteux also remains over the smaller obstacles as does Volnay De Thaix & Sign Of A Victory. No decision over Beat That but sounds like could be edging towards a crack at the staying hurdle division. A final decision has yet to be made, apparently.

According to the RP it is almost certain My Tent Or Yours will remain over hurdles. Haydock a possible ahead of the Christmas Hurdle.

Of Josses Hill, NJH states "he's a gorgeous big horse with bags of scope for two-mile chases" - he heads his team of novice chasers along with Whisper and Close Touch, who is back. Blue Fashion is also back after a wind op and goes chasing, while Kentucky Hyden could also be chasing

Bobs Worth could start off under top weight in the Hennessy, or may even return to hurdling. Lexus could be on his agenda again.

NJH states Simonsig could return in Peterborough Chase en route to King George. Sprinter Sacre to have a racecourse gallop before he returns to action.
 
Bobs Worth rated 152 over hurdles :confused:
 
Old Vic said:
Bobs Worth rated 152 over hurdles :confused:
Click to expand...

Yep.

Havent seen this here ...Hendo on Grandouet. Still a novice.

"A respiratory issue has been addressed with Grandouet over the summer , he does have his own technique but we might possibly have changed this and made life easier for him. He’s only 7 and one has to be hopeful he still has a considerable future.”

and

Long Run :suffered injuries whilst travelling back from France. ”Happily, time is not a problem because his target will again be in the spring; the Grand National and the same race back at Auteuil,”

Triolo D'Alene : “By the time of the Grand National we were having issues with Triolo D’Alene ‘s wind, which were rectified over the summer, he has the ideal profile for a National but needs good fast ground, and I suspect we’re unlikely to get that again for the National, for obvious understandable reasons.

Hadrians Approach has plenty to learn and it was an inspired ride by Barry at Sandown. We may look at the Hennessy, but definitely not because Bobs Worth might be there to keep his weight down!

Ma Filleule

“In view of Ma Filleules mark we’ll need to be looking at something like the Charlie Hall or perhaps Down Royal ( JN Wine Chase ) at the beginning of November.
 
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News of a few here

Owner Dai Walters says Oscar Whisky is 'absolutely bouncing' ahead of his likely return to action in next month's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

The dual Aintree Hurdle winner did not always convince with his jumping during his novice campaign over fences last season, but still managed to claim three races, including the Grade One Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown in February.

Nicky Henderson's nine-year-old is 7-1 favourite with the sponsors for the feature event at Cheltenham's Open meeting on November 15 and Walters is keen to see his charge line up at Prestbury Park.

He said: ``Oscar is in really good form at the moment. I know he's an older horse now, but Nicky tells me he's absolutely bouncing. Hopefully he'll run in that (Paddy Power Gold Cup).''

Oscar Whisky is likely to spearhead a strong team of Walters runners at the Open meeting, with Whisper, last season's Coral Cup and Liverpool Hurdle winner, set to embark upon a career over fences.

``We've made our minds up and he's going to go the same route as Oscar Whisky this time last year and go novice chasing,'' said the owner.

``Hopefully he might start off at Cheltenham in November. He's bred to be a good chaser and I think he'll be our star horse this season.''

Walters also revealed Edmund Kean has moved from David Pipe's yard to Peter Bowen and could be targeted at the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury.

The Henderson-trained West Wizard has not been seen since suffering a long-odds-on reverse on his hurdling debut at Kempton last November, but Walters said: ``He's still a real dark horse in my eyes.

"I think he's going to do very well this season.''

The owner has also added to his string with the intriguing purchase of John Constable, a three-year-old who showed a good level of ability on the Flat for Aidan O'Brien as a full brother to Ascot Gold Cup winner Leading Light.

He could run in a juvenile hurdle at Cheltenham next month.
 
Nicky Henderson worked some of his big guns at Seven Barrows, utilizing both grass and all-weather facilities to ready his troops for an important pre-Christmas weekend.

Cheltenham will be the major port of call and the destination for the likes of VANITEUX, HADRIAN'S APPROACH, RIVER MAIGUE and OUT SAM.

Third in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the same course in March, Vaniteux was the subject of steady ante-post support that ensured he went off favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle, only for him to catch a tartar in Garde La Victoire.

Both before and subsequent to that very good effort, Vaniteux worked like a Champion Hurdle horse and his claims will be sternly put to the test against The New One in the International Hurdle on Saturday.

His work is usually impressive to the eye and he's shown no sign of anything but what Henderson and his team have come to expect from the gelding.

Hadrian's Approach side-stepped the Hennessy and will head fresh and fancied for the long distance handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday.

Last season's bet365 Gold Cup winner hasn't always been the most natural over his fences, but a lot of work jas gone into him on the schooling ground.

River Maigue has a couple of entries this week. The former Irish pointer has had his problems but is better than he showed at Kempton, when uncharacteristic mistakes brought about his downfall.

He looked alert and in good heart as he tuned-up for another novices' chase.

Out Sam did well through the summer and when scoring on his first hurdle start in a warm race at Newbury, he served notice that he's one to follow.

The Multiplex gelding has shown in subsequent work that he's gone forward, and he should have no trouble landing another novices' hurdle.

Henderson will probably separate HARGAM and PEACE AND CO, sending them to opposite ends of the country. They each have entries in juvenile hurdles at Cheltenham and Doncaster.

With a Flat rating of 97, the Aga Khan-bred Hargam always promised to make his mark amongst the four-year-olds and after coming there pulling the proverbial bus, it was a shade disappointing that he was beaten at Cheltenham last month.

However, that run is thought to have taught him a lot.

Peace And Co moved to Lambourn after showing plenty of ability at Clairefontaine in the summer. He is highly regarded and works like a good horse.
 
shocking stat on Morning Line - Henderson has had only 4 chase winners in last six months !
 
Old Vic said:
shocking stat on Morning Line - Henderson has had only 4 chase winners in last six months !
Click to expand...

Close Touch 26 Dec
Big Hands Harry 22 Nov
Golden Hoof 25 Oct
Onle Lucky Lady 26 Sep

4 chase wins from 50 runners since 1 July
 
Chris Cook is onto it too...

Henderson’s lack of success over fences has been one of the features of the season so far. In the past six months, his horses have won over fences a grand total of four times from 48 runs (8%). It is a staggering statistic for such a high profile yard and the more surprising when you consider that his hurdles record in that time is 33 wins from 129 runs (26%).

So it’s not as though his horses are generally unhealthy or out of form. In hurdles races, his form is nothing short of excellent. What on earth is going on with his chasers?

This is the yard of Bobs Worth, Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Captain Conan, Finian’s Rainbow, Ma Filleule, Triolo D’Alene and Long Run. Most of those have had recent problems, of course, and I mention them only to give some indication of the weight of steeplechasing talent which Henderson has brought through in recent seasons, a skill which seems to have deserted him for the time being.

Think of the number of small-field novice chases you’ve seen since October. Once you’ve got a few good horses, it’s not that hard to win over fences. Yet Henderson bagged just two chases in November and December. His tally for those two months in the three previous seasons was 11, 13, and 23.

I imagined that the market would take account of the stable’s travails in pricing up Josses Hill, but that has not happened and he is unbackably short, bearing in mind how his jumping got rather ragged in the second half of his chasing debut at Ascot. But he should have learned from that and his main rival is Solar Impulse, whose jumping took him out of his last race at Cheltenham
 
Just by way of record Barry Geraghty is 6/24 - 25% since start of November riding chasers not trained by Henderson.
 

Update on sprinter whisper etc
 
This is an old quote from Nick Mordin ( November 2012)

In this regard it's worth noting that Long Run's trainer Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record with young, lightly raced chasers in top races. Since 1996 his chasers with eight or fewer previous starts over fences have won nine times out of 91 in Grade 1 chases. Those with more than eight previous chase runs have scored only three times out of 37.

Two of those three wins were in the BMW Chase at the Punchestown Festival at a time when it was basically a bogus Grade 1 (neither winner ever won another Grade 1 or earned an official or Racing Post rating above 157). The third win was in the so-called 'replacement Gold Cup' run at Sandown during the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001. This was another bogus Grade 1 won by Henderson's Marlborough. The short head runner up was a 149 rated 12yo that lost all 23 pattern races he contested. The third had an official rating of only 145 and never won a pattern race in seven tries.

Henderson has been training since 1978 and started out with a top class string. But in his entire career the only horse I can trace that he trained to win a Grade 1 chase after more than nine previous chase starts was Remittance Man who took the Mumm Melling Chase after ten previous chase starts. However Remittance Man only beat three rivals that day, the most fancied of which fell. The runner up was a horse that never won a race worth 5000 or more and Remittance Man earned a Racing Post rating of only 145 for his win.

What the stats suggest is that when one of Henderson's top chasers has racked up more than eight or nine previous chase starts you should start looking for signs of deterioration. Long Run has now had fifteen previous starts over fences. He's lost all four times he's run in Grade 1 chases since he's had more than eight previous chase starts.
Click to expand...

Thought I would look at how things have panned out since for a few of the Stable Stars:

Bobs Worth

First 8 Chases Novice season 1321 2nd season 11 Third Season 61

Since then Third season cont 5 Fourth season 8

Given that he improved during his novice year it might be a bit early to write him off but Mordin theory hold up so far.

Riverside Theatre

Some support for Mordin here:

First 9 Chases 1115F121
Second 8 chases 11P6461U
Third 69

Sprinter Sacre

First 8 11111111
Since 11P

?

Captain Conan

Hasnt got to 8 yet?

111513P

Worth watching over next few months I think.
 
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