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Newbury November Meeting Antepost discussion

This race is dominated by 2nd season chasers who are on a decent handicap mark from the novice season and have developed and are far better than they have shown so far and are well handicapped.

If Elegant Escape can give weight to all these up and coming well handicapped horses then he is a grade 1 winner in waiting and would become one of the favourites for the gold cup.

Im not flipping any arguement. I believe he is the gild cup winner and as such I believe he will win this race.

The flippers are in fact the people who say he has no chance in a gold cup but believe he can emulate Denman, Arkle and Bobs Worth and win this race.
Native River won this by 1/2 length from a 5lb lower mark carrying 11lb less than EE before going on to win the gold cup.

The task in hand is huge and that 20/1 can only be value if you believe he can go on to win thr gold cup.
 
ELEGANTLY TASTED said:
This race is dominated by 2nd season chasers who are on a decent handicap mark from the novice season and have developed and are far better than they have shown so far and are well handicapped.

If Elegant Escape can give weight to all these up and coming well handicapped horses then he is a grade 1 winner in waiting and would become one of the favourites for the gold cup.

Im not flipping any arguement. I believe he is the gild cup winner and as such I believe he will win this race.

The flippers are in fact the people who say he has no chance in a gold cup but believe he can emulate Denman, Arkle and Bobs Worth and win this race.
Native River won this by 1/2 length from a 5lb lower mark carrying 11lb less than EE before going on to win the gold cup.

The task in hand is huge and that 20/1 can only be value if you believe he can go on to win thr gold cup.
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This year's renewal looks to be lacking decent 2nd season chasers though. TOTG, Santini, LIT would have all been bets in this for me. It looks a very average renewal and one of the worst I can't remember.

That's the reason I give EE a chance off 160. The track suits EE more than Cheltenham imo.
 
Every running of the Ladbrokes Trophy will appear weak looking on paper. Its only as the season goes on that you can determine how strong the race was. Most runners true marks are hidden at present and they have been lined up for the race.

RSA winners and JLT winners dont tend to come here as a rule. This field is strong and the task is huge facing EE.

EE is a staying machine, Cheltenham is much better suited to EE than Newbury.
 
If EE was good enough to win a Gold Cup, he wouldn't have finished behind Ballyoptic if the Charlie Hall. The same horse who got beaten by 45l just gone in the Betfair Chase
 
We all know EE is a big horse, Tizzard confirmed he was heavy and needed the race. He was giving a race fit and in the form of his life Ballyoptic 4lb.
Ballyoptic recorded an rpr of 134 in the haydock race compared to 167 in the charlie hall.

Ballyoptic clearly ran well below the level of form in the haydock race. Him having a bad day at Haydock doesnt weaken the charlie hall form in anyway shape or form, he simply ran a shocker.

You either understand that or you dont.

The level of drop was too big. Perhaps Ballyoptic hated the ground at haydock and perhaps having been trained to peak early season and following 2 huge performances he ran flat.
 
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Had Ballyoptic ran to a similar level of form at Haydock as he did at Wetherby and still got beaten as far as he did then you could say that the form isnt good enough (though even then you would need to acknowledge that EE will improve for the race and wasnt fully fit at Wetherby )The fact that Ballyoptic ran so much below makes his haydock formlime completely irrelevant.
 
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Took 14s each way Elegant Escape (4 places). Must go close here surely. I’ll cover OK Corral on the day each way (5/6 places)
 
quevega said:
On Ok Corral at 20-1.
Pretty certain Henderson entered him on my suggestion on here.:devilish:
But. although I don't generally pay any attention to the working of horses at racecourses.
He looked knackered the other day, just jogging.
Also had small bet on Champagne Classic at 40-1 - Gordon has since said he won't run here, but does seem steady on exchange,

Also think Kim Bailey missed a trick by not running Vindication off his season starting mark.
And the other I liked for this is running today (Discorama) - so cashed that out.
Le Breuil's unlikely to run now as Pauling's busy feeding his horses banana's due to the potassium shortages.
The one I may back if declared is West Approach as this race may suit his style.
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Paul Kealy
@PaulKealyRP

Been looking at Ladbrokes Trophy - surely OK Corral doubles in price at least? Last horse I would dream of backing


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So we know Quevega isn't secretly Paul Kealy....
 
Kevloaf said:


Paul Kealy
@PaulKealyRP

Been looking at Ladbrokes Trophy - surely OK Corral doubles in price at least? Last horse I would dream of backing


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So we know Quevega isn't secretly Paul Kealy....
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:highly_amused:

He does often concur with my thinking to be fair.
But I've managed to keep the waist down much more successfully, despite similar excessive drinking.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Took 14s each way Elegant Escape (4 places). Must go close here surely. I’ll cover OK Corral on the day each way (5/6 places)
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The hills 20/1 about EE has been slashed to 12/1. It’s EE owners 60th bday on Saturday so here’s hoping he has a good one!
 
took a chance west approach is declared and backed today at 15.3-1.
No idea what power will ride but will affect price either way.
 
ELEGANTLY TASTED said:
I would imagine Power will ride Mister Malarkey.
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would you like him on yours ??
or has Tom got the ride for life ??
sometimes a horses jumping can improve with a different driver and make all the difference required to get to the next level.
Insanity and all that.
 
quevega said:
would you like him on yours ??
or has Tom got the ride for life ??
sometimes a horses jumping can improve with a different driver and make all the difference required to get to the next level.
Insanity and all that.
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I would class Robbie Power as one of the best jockeys currently riding. Tom O Brien isnt at the same level, so I would like Robbie Power to ride but ultimately Robbie Power is going to ride Lostintranslation in the gold cup so I dont think it would be right to put him on for this only for him to get back off in March.

Im expecting Tom to ride Elegant Escape on Saturday.
 
Harry Cobden has ridden the champ a few times in the past so I wouldnt guarantee that Tom has the ride for life.

Tom has the better record on the horse but Cobden has really come of age this season I think. He is committed to other places though.
 
Backed Yala Enki for this @ 25/1. 8lb better of with EE for 5l beating in last years Welsh GN
 
Does Kalashnikov @ 10/3 look a good play tomorrow in the 2m4f handicap to anyone else? Think he’d have beaten Forest Bihan at Aintree lto if so many fences weren’t bypassed it turned into a sprint in the end.

He & Glen Forsa look the only two real graded class horses in the race & Kalashnikov should have the fitness edge. The galloping track at Newbury should suit too, he relished it in the Betfair hurdle.
 
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