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12.45 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Brian Meehan’s Agent Murphy has progressed well all season winning here at Ascot on his return before running out a ready winner of the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury in August. Was no match for the winner at the Curragh last time but beat the rest well including a couple of rivals which re-oppose today. This will be his first attempt at two miles which is obviously an unknown although he was staying on well over 1m6f last time so it could suit him. The ground which is on the soft side of good shouldn’t be any inconvenience for him and he looks a likely contender.
It is fair to say that the victory of Litigant in the Ebor was something of a surprise but on the back of that I wouldn’t find it too hard to see him running well here. He was a smart horse in France before landing a string of all-weather contest for Seamus Durack and the only time he has finished outside of the first two was on his racecourse debut. The form of the Ebor has worked out well with the second, third, fourth and fifth having run well in better company since and he could run better than his odds of 10/1 suggest. Clearly he needs to improve a bit but he hasn’t had too much racing and he could just be coming to the boil at the right time.
However, I fancy FORGOTTEN RULES to retain his title despite having run below expectations on his last couple of runs. He ran a fine race in the Gold Cup over 2m4f here in June on ground which would have been quicker than ideal and probably ran again too quickly when he was beaten at the Curragh at the end of the month. His jockey felt he was left in front a bit soon last time and as a result the tactics will be different on Saturday with Pat Smullen likely to drop the horse in as he did twelve months ago. Dermot Weld is a fine trainer with an excellent record here at Ascot (6-17 in last five seasons) and he has won this race in two of the last three years. The ground should be just about perfect for him and he looks a strong each-way bet in our opening contest at around the 6/1 mark.
Advice
FORGOTTEN RULES – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Coral)
1.20 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
The first running of this race as a Group 1 has as expected attracted a stellar field, with the front two in the betting likely to take all of the beating.
Henry Candy’s Twilight Son did us a good turn earlier in the year when landing the Haydock Sprint Cup at 10/1 and in the process maintaining his 100% record on the racecourse. His trainer is of no doubt that this colt will be better next year but he showed a fine turn of foot to hit the front at Haydock as well as a willing attitude to hold off the challenge of Strath Burn in the closing stages. Ryan Moore takes over from Fergus Sweeney in the saddle for this particular contest and there is no better man to have on your side in the big races and I expect him to give a bold show.
However, he may just have bumped into one in the shape of MUHAARAR who since winning the Commonwealth Cup here in June has confirmed himself as the best sprinter in Europe. He didn’t seem to handle the track very well at Newmarket but still managed to land the July Cup before going onto land the Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville in August. He beat Esoterique that day who has since gone on to win another two Group 1s and the form looks rock solid. This is likely to be his final start before going off to stud and I feel he is the one to beat and in truth am surprised that he is as big as 2/1. I have a lot of admiration for Twilight Son but I think that he will have his work cut out here.
Of the rest, Maarek won this race in 2012 and apart from his run in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time he had been running well of late. He has been slowly away on his last few starts over five furlongs before finishing strongly so I don’t think the return to six furlongs will be too much of an inconvenience for him. He seems to like it here at Ascot and at 16/1 could offer some each-way value in the race.
Advice
MUHAARAR – 2pts win @ 2/1 (General)
1.55 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
In the absence of Qualify the only British Classic winner in the field is Simple Verse who for all the conjecture took a big step forward to win the St Leger last time. I don’t want to dwell on it but I felt that had she been switched around then she may have even further at Doncaster and she seems to be in fine form at present. The drop back to 1m4f means that she will need to be right on the top of her game but she travels well in her races and you need to stay to win races at Ascot. This is one of the better renewals of this race that I can remember but I think she will play a big part in the outcome of the race.
There are also a couple of French raiders in the field and I slightly prefer the chances of Candarliya who has won five of her last six starts. The only reverse came in the Prix Vermeille behind Treve and she had no problems bouncing back to justify favouritism last time. Her trainer Alain De Royer-Dupre sent Ashalanda over to win this race in 2009 and she rates an interesting contender. She seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and looks likely to run a big race in the hands of Christophe Soumillon.
Despite that, I have to side with COVERT LOVE who showed an excellent attitude to land the Prix de l’Opera on Arc day and in doing so deny us a winner with Jazzi Top. Earlier in the year I wasn’t sure how good she was but she has only been beaten by Pleascach in her last three Group 1s and there is no doubt that the return to 1m4f will be to her benefit. The Hugo Palmer stable could not be in better form having saddled eight winners in the last two weeks and as we saw last week with Gifted Master, racing does not seem to take much out of them. Once again Pat Smullen gets the leg up on her and I think she is a worthy favourite and the one they all have to beat.
Advice
COVERT LOVE – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, Skybet)
2.30 Ascot – Queen Elizabeth Ii Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (Group 1)
The make-up of this market will likely depend on the participation of Gleneagles whose trainer Aidan O’Brien will walk the course on Friday evening before making a final decision. Should he run then he would have to have a live chance having won two renewals of the 2000 Guineas and the St James’ Palace here in June. He has had engagements since then but the ground hasn’t been deemed suitable and he comes in here of quite a lay-off now. I thought that he would have given Solow a run for his money in the Sussex Stakes but it wasn’t meant to be but should he line up then I fancy him to give an excellent account of himself.
Come 2.30 on Saturday the market leader will be Solow who has carried all before him this season winning on all five starts including the Queen Anne over course and distance at Royal Ascot. On form he is the one to beat but he too hasn’t been seen for a while having had a break after his win in the Sussex Stakes. I thought Arod got close enough to him that day to suggest he may be worth taking on here, especially as he will likely be odds-on if Gleneagles does not take part.
Therefore I am going to take a chance on KODI BEAR who has been improving all season since missing the start of the campaign through injury. You can put a line through his Chantilly run as they went far too fast early on but since then he has looked a very smart performer in winning at Salisbury and Goodwood. He hasn’t had too much racing and I feel that he should be spot on for this assignment. Even if Gleneagles comes out there will be eight runners for each-way bets so I think he is the one to go with at around 8/1.
Advice
KODI BEAR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
3.05 Ascot – Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1)
In terms of the betting, the one horse that everyone wants to be with is JACK HOBBS who having lived in the shadow of stablemate Golden Horn in the early part of the year, couldn’t have won the Irish Derby in easier fashion. He cruised into the lead before stretching out under hands and heels and he has certainly got better with his racing. He had a day out at Kempton in September to land a Group 3 in similar style and he should be primed for this assignment. I do have a slight doubt about him dropping back to 1m2f although he has plenty of speed he is also a strong stayer over 1m4f. Having said that had Golden Horn not been there he would have won both the Dante and the Derby and whilst the field behind him looks strong, he is definitely the standout performer in the race.
Aidan O’Brien’s Found may have only got her head in front once this season but she has run some fine races in defeat, most notably in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes. She ran well in the Arc last time having been bumped around and finished strongly under little pressure from her rider, just five lengths behind the winner. She gets a 3lb allowance from the three-year-old colts and as we have seen already this season it can make all the difference in a tight finish. I personally think she needs to step up again to get the better of Jack Hobbs but she certainly can’t be dismissed and looks the main danger to the market leader.
There are a couple at bigger prices who make some each-way appeal including the likes of Fascinating Rock and The Corsican but the one I would like to focus on is Racing History. Saeed Bin Suroor’s three-year-old has done nothing but improve this season and turned in a career best to land the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor in August. He was still a little green but stayed on strongly to get the better of Cannock Chase inside the final furlong. He is a full-brother to Farhh who won this race in 2013 and although he needs to step up again, I think he will run better than his 14/1 odds suggest.
Advice
JACK HOBBS – 2pts win @ 5/4 (General)
3.45 Ascot – Balmoral Handicap
Last season the Cambridgeshire proved a useful guide to this race with the first two home both having taken in Newmarket’s 9f contest. Master The World finished best of those running today, finishing a narrow second to Third Time Lucky although he failed to reproduce that effort in Group 3 company last time. That was only last weekend but it seems interesting that Ryan Moore rode him last week and continues the partnership for this assignment. He is flying pretty high in the handicap at the moment but looks to have a live chance if turning in the best of his form.
Behind him in fourth at Newmarket was Man Of Harlech who has steadily crept up the handicap this season posting some fine efforts. He raced keenly in the Cambridgeshire so the drop back in trip could well suit Andrew Balding’s four-year-old and he sits towards the foot of the weights in this contest. He gives the impression that there is more to come from him and it would be no surprise to see him hit the frame again here.
Musaddas is another who ran with credit at Newmarket finishing seventh as he was unfortunate to be drawn in the wrong place on the Rowley Mile. He was staying on in the closing stages in a hood and connections will be hoping that the switch back to cheekpieces can eke out further improvement from the five-year-old. The 5lb claim of Edward Greatrex should also lessen the burden and the young jockey has already showed himself to be more than capable in these sort of races this season. This horse continues to give the impression there is more to come and it is hard to see him not getting involved at the business end of the race.
However, I am going to take a chance on a horse who could just have been kept back for this race and he is AYAAR. He missed the break on his latest assignment at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting but still made good headway to challenge before weakening in the closing stages. He won the Spring Cup at Newbury earlier in the season and races here off just a 4lb higher mark so is by no means handicapped to the hilt. He will need to get away better than he did last time but he is a strong traveller who has run well here in the past and having had 35 days off he could just be a bit fresher than some of his rivals and I think it is worth taking a chance on him at around the 16/1 mark.
Advice
AYAAR – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (General)
Brian Meehan’s Agent Murphy has progressed well all season winning here at Ascot on his return before running out a ready winner of the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury in August. Was no match for the winner at the Curragh last time but beat the rest well including a couple of rivals which re-oppose today. This will be his first attempt at two miles which is obviously an unknown although he was staying on well over 1m6f last time so it could suit him. The ground which is on the soft side of good shouldn’t be any inconvenience for him and he looks a likely contender.
It is fair to say that the victory of Litigant in the Ebor was something of a surprise but on the back of that I wouldn’t find it too hard to see him running well here. He was a smart horse in France before landing a string of all-weather contest for Seamus Durack and the only time he has finished outside of the first two was on his racecourse debut. The form of the Ebor has worked out well with the second, third, fourth and fifth having run well in better company since and he could run better than his odds of 10/1 suggest. Clearly he needs to improve a bit but he hasn’t had too much racing and he could just be coming to the boil at the right time.
However, I fancy FORGOTTEN RULES to retain his title despite having run below expectations on his last couple of runs. He ran a fine race in the Gold Cup over 2m4f here in June on ground which would have been quicker than ideal and probably ran again too quickly when he was beaten at the Curragh at the end of the month. His jockey felt he was left in front a bit soon last time and as a result the tactics will be different on Saturday with Pat Smullen likely to drop the horse in as he did twelve months ago. Dermot Weld is a fine trainer with an excellent record here at Ascot (6-17 in last five seasons) and he has won this race in two of the last three years. The ground should be just about perfect for him and he looks a strong each-way bet in our opening contest at around the 6/1 mark.
Advice
FORGOTTEN RULES – 1pt e/w @ 6/1 (Coral)
1.20 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
The first running of this race as a Group 1 has as expected attracted a stellar field, with the front two in the betting likely to take all of the beating.
Henry Candy’s Twilight Son did us a good turn earlier in the year when landing the Haydock Sprint Cup at 10/1 and in the process maintaining his 100% record on the racecourse. His trainer is of no doubt that this colt will be better next year but he showed a fine turn of foot to hit the front at Haydock as well as a willing attitude to hold off the challenge of Strath Burn in the closing stages. Ryan Moore takes over from Fergus Sweeney in the saddle for this particular contest and there is no better man to have on your side in the big races and I expect him to give a bold show.
However, he may just have bumped into one in the shape of MUHAARAR who since winning the Commonwealth Cup here in June has confirmed himself as the best sprinter in Europe. He didn’t seem to handle the track very well at Newmarket but still managed to land the July Cup before going onto land the Prix Maurice De Gheest at Deauville in August. He beat Esoterique that day who has since gone on to win another two Group 1s and the form looks rock solid. This is likely to be his final start before going off to stud and I feel he is the one to beat and in truth am surprised that he is as big as 2/1. I have a lot of admiration for Twilight Son but I think that he will have his work cut out here.
Of the rest, Maarek won this race in 2012 and apart from his run in the Prix de l’Abbaye last time he had been running well of late. He has been slowly away on his last few starts over five furlongs before finishing strongly so I don’t think the return to six furlongs will be too much of an inconvenience for him. He seems to like it here at Ascot and at 16/1 could offer some each-way value in the race.
Advice
MUHAARAR – 2pts win @ 2/1 (General)
1.55 Ascot – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
In the absence of Qualify the only British Classic winner in the field is Simple Verse who for all the conjecture took a big step forward to win the St Leger last time. I don’t want to dwell on it but I felt that had she been switched around then she may have even further at Doncaster and she seems to be in fine form at present. The drop back to 1m4f means that she will need to be right on the top of her game but she travels well in her races and you need to stay to win races at Ascot. This is one of the better renewals of this race that I can remember but I think she will play a big part in the outcome of the race.
There are also a couple of French raiders in the field and I slightly prefer the chances of Candarliya who has won five of her last six starts. The only reverse came in the Prix Vermeille behind Treve and she had no problems bouncing back to justify favouritism last time. Her trainer Alain De Royer-Dupre sent Ashalanda over to win this race in 2009 and she rates an interesting contender. She seems pretty versatile in terms of ground and looks likely to run a big race in the hands of Christophe Soumillon.
Despite that, I have to side with COVERT LOVE who showed an excellent attitude to land the Prix de l’Opera on Arc day and in doing so deny us a winner with Jazzi Top. Earlier in the year I wasn’t sure how good she was but she has only been beaten by Pleascach in her last three Group 1s and there is no doubt that the return to 1m4f will be to her benefit. The Hugo Palmer stable could not be in better form having saddled eight winners in the last two weeks and as we saw last week with Gifted Master, racing does not seem to take much out of them. Once again Pat Smullen gets the leg up on her and I think she is a worthy favourite and the one they all have to beat.
Advice
COVERT LOVE – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, Skybet)
2.30 Ascot – Queen Elizabeth Ii Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (Group 1)
The make-up of this market will likely depend on the participation of Gleneagles whose trainer Aidan O’Brien will walk the course on Friday evening before making a final decision. Should he run then he would have to have a live chance having won two renewals of the 2000 Guineas and the St James’ Palace here in June. He has had engagements since then but the ground hasn’t been deemed suitable and he comes in here of quite a lay-off now. I thought that he would have given Solow a run for his money in the Sussex Stakes but it wasn’t meant to be but should he line up then I fancy him to give an excellent account of himself.
Come 2.30 on Saturday the market leader will be Solow who has carried all before him this season winning on all five starts including the Queen Anne over course and distance at Royal Ascot. On form he is the one to beat but he too hasn’t been seen for a while having had a break after his win in the Sussex Stakes. I thought Arod got close enough to him that day to suggest he may be worth taking on here, especially as he will likely be odds-on if Gleneagles does not take part.
Therefore I am going to take a chance on KODI BEAR who has been improving all season since missing the start of the campaign through injury. You can put a line through his Chantilly run as they went far too fast early on but since then he has looked a very smart performer in winning at Salisbury and Goodwood. He hasn’t had too much racing and I feel that he should be spot on for this assignment. Even if Gleneagles comes out there will be eight runners for each-way bets so I think he is the one to go with at around 8/1.
Advice
KODI BEAR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (bet365, Paddy Power)
3.05 Ascot – Qipco Champion Stakes (Group 1)
In terms of the betting, the one horse that everyone wants to be with is JACK HOBBS who having lived in the shadow of stablemate Golden Horn in the early part of the year, couldn’t have won the Irish Derby in easier fashion. He cruised into the lead before stretching out under hands and heels and he has certainly got better with his racing. He had a day out at Kempton in September to land a Group 3 in similar style and he should be primed for this assignment. I do have a slight doubt about him dropping back to 1m2f although he has plenty of speed he is also a strong stayer over 1m4f. Having said that had Golden Horn not been there he would have won both the Dante and the Derby and whilst the field behind him looks strong, he is definitely the standout performer in the race.
Aidan O’Brien’s Found may have only got her head in front once this season but she has run some fine races in defeat, most notably in the Irish 1000 Guineas, Coronation Stakes and Irish Champion Stakes. She ran well in the Arc last time having been bumped around and finished strongly under little pressure from her rider, just five lengths behind the winner. She gets a 3lb allowance from the three-year-old colts and as we have seen already this season it can make all the difference in a tight finish. I personally think she needs to step up again to get the better of Jack Hobbs but she certainly can’t be dismissed and looks the main danger to the market leader.
There are a couple at bigger prices who make some each-way appeal including the likes of Fascinating Rock and The Corsican but the one I would like to focus on is Racing History. Saeed Bin Suroor’s three-year-old has done nothing but improve this season and turned in a career best to land the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor in August. He was still a little green but stayed on strongly to get the better of Cannock Chase inside the final furlong. He is a full-brother to Farhh who won this race in 2013 and although he needs to step up again, I think he will run better than his 14/1 odds suggest.
Advice
JACK HOBBS – 2pts win @ 5/4 (General)
3.45 Ascot – Balmoral Handicap
Last season the Cambridgeshire proved a useful guide to this race with the first two home both having taken in Newmarket’s 9f contest. Master The World finished best of those running today, finishing a narrow second to Third Time Lucky although he failed to reproduce that effort in Group 3 company last time. That was only last weekend but it seems interesting that Ryan Moore rode him last week and continues the partnership for this assignment. He is flying pretty high in the handicap at the moment but looks to have a live chance if turning in the best of his form.
Behind him in fourth at Newmarket was Man Of Harlech who has steadily crept up the handicap this season posting some fine efforts. He raced keenly in the Cambridgeshire so the drop back in trip could well suit Andrew Balding’s four-year-old and he sits towards the foot of the weights in this contest. He gives the impression that there is more to come from him and it would be no surprise to see him hit the frame again here.
Musaddas is another who ran with credit at Newmarket finishing seventh as he was unfortunate to be drawn in the wrong place on the Rowley Mile. He was staying on in the closing stages in a hood and connections will be hoping that the switch back to cheekpieces can eke out further improvement from the five-year-old. The 5lb claim of Edward Greatrex should also lessen the burden and the young jockey has already showed himself to be more than capable in these sort of races this season. This horse continues to give the impression there is more to come and it is hard to see him not getting involved at the business end of the race.
However, I am going to take a chance on a horse who could just have been kept back for this race and he is AYAAR. He missed the break on his latest assignment at Doncaster’s St Leger meeting but still made good headway to challenge before weakening in the closing stages. He won the Spring Cup at Newbury earlier in the season and races here off just a 4lb higher mark so is by no means handicapped to the hilt. He will need to get away better than he did last time but he is a strong traveller who has run well here in the past and having had 35 days off he could just be a bit fresher than some of his rivals and I think it is worth taking a chance on him at around the 16/1 mark.
Advice
AYAAR – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 (General)
