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Multipes Strategy for 2019

robith

robith

Fat Jockey FPL winner 19/20, 20/21 and Patron (est
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I've seen a few posts around multiples around the forum, and I was very bored in a research meeting today and started thinking about a sharing of multiples strategy and approach.

Mine has been quite the learning curve as I got into national hunt around 2013, and had a few years of small stakes, big wins on Mullins ante post hot pots (my first ever ante post bet was Vautor and Faugheen for their novice hurdles, purely having seen them talked about on twitter. This horse betting stuff is a piece of piss I thought!).

Over time this has evolved as I've learned - things like doing yankees instead of L15/31s when you already have the singles - and covering the singles in multiples too!

I've started to veer away from the motherload attempts - as a darts player I live by trebles for show, doubles for dough! And I've started to take that into my Cheltenham multis. eg last year Apple's Jade and COC let down a lot of trebles and accas, and I had a fair few doubles involving BVD, Footpad, Samcro and Altior that didn't change my life, but certainly made the profit column look healthy.

I also have mental pairings of types of bets - eg on the day I'll often do one acca on graded races, and an each way one on the handicaps/bigger fields as my strike rate there is much worse, the evidence suggests there'd be little gained combining them.

I'm also a sucker for a little mug fav treble, but getting the right day for it has proven elusive recently!
 
Yeah good topic this Rob. I made a conscious effort about 4 or 5 years ago to concentrate almost solely on singles as I was fed up of picking good winners only to be let down by another. I still play multis but I see them as a bit of fun to run alongside my singles, this way I can chill out a bit more when a banker inevitably sinks what looked like a great bet!

I do like a trixie.
 
Most of my bets ante post are trixies trying to seek value pre festival then my bigger bets will be the hotpots in doubles
Apples jade let me down in my big trixie last year with alitor and Samcro was gutted but Moyahhed in the county made up for it tho :very_drunk:
 
Does anyone know any online bookies that do round robins,
used to like them when I used shops.
 
:highly_amused:
 
Viking Flagship said:
Yeah good topic this Rob. I made a conscious effort about 4 or 5 years ago to concentrate almost solely on singles as I was fed up of picking good winners only to be let down by another. I still play multis but I see them as a bit of fun to run alongside my singles, this way I can chill out a bit more when a banker inevitably sinks what looked like a great bet!

I do like a trixie.
Click to expand...

This is pretty much my style, I expect multi’s to make up less than 5% of my total outlay. One thing I’d add is that I hope to have a few more live ones this year due to 365s cash out. I have already cashed out loads for stake back or small loss (normally doubles to four folds) as even if one bombs if another comes in you can cash out for close to same value. If 365’s cash out still exists next year I expect to do more of this. Can’t help but feel a big win is just that little more attainable now
 
Win singles for me antepost. Dont do anything EW until NRNB. Do the odd double, treble etc if I fancy a few at a time, but only if I consider them all value. The only multi I profited off last year was with Mohaayed in a few early anteposts, which I had completely discounted with the soft ground.

Also my most profitable punts came between now and early February (especially before the Previews start). I think its even worth getting on a few of the "hypes" early and get a position on the exchanges to lay it off even if you dont fancy it, like a long term trade.

Hoping to be in a decent position for every race to have a (few) decent EW on the morning of, to take advantage of the extra places/bookie deals. Perfect example of all the above in the Supreme for me last year. Backed Kalashnikov (main) and Mengli all year (win only) at nice prices, both on the exchange and bookmakers. Backed Getabird and had him traded out a week before for a profit that covered my bet on Mengli. Then the night before backed Summerville Boy EW. Also laid off Mengli mid race at 5.0 (although he touched 2/1) but a software is very handy for those trades.

I also have one or two trading strategies. Any body else use a trading platform/if so which one?
 
Who had that cracking pick up on Thursday lady year. Shattered Love and Balko Des Flos were in it ... was it Charlie?
 
The singles are the daily/weekly grind and, although enjoyable, will never make a difference to my life.

I want a Steve Palmer style face spitter and will keep trying for one until I'm 6ft under.

On the theme of multiples. Related multiples can be really beneficial. Either same owner, same trainer or even same form lines. It's been mentioned on here before but the Vautour/UDS double was available at 40/1+ (I didn't back it btw) early in their novice chasing season.

Delta Work / Le Richebourg, Santini / OK Corral, DDS / Le Richebourg, Thomas Darby / Brewinupastorm are all related doubles that I've done so far.
 
My strategy too FM. Hardly a shock but I think you should use a portion of your bank to seek out the life changer. Love a related but allowed multiple.

Form is one angle - been following it since At fishers X and The New One in 2013.

Jockeys/ Trainers and Owners another one. Dai Waters two an obvious one this year. Momentum (Copyright B Gault) also important with jockeys - amazing how when things go right they keep happening.
 
I'll end up with a number of trixies/yankees but when placing them months out I am only choosing horses with an obvious target, so most of mine pre March will be focused on championship races or occasional novices where I'm convinced where they're heading.
I'll have a few in the week or two leading up to the festival that include other races but my main aim to have live bets....
 
I have 173 pts (out of 700 pts total staked) that are 'multiples' or 'specials'.

Last season I had some multiples that mean horses like Apple's Jade, Finian's Oscar, Cause of Causes and Our Duke would have all given me well into 5 figure returns... obviously they didn't land, but the majority we're trixies or yankees, and with them being live shots on the day, despite them "letting me down" I will definitely be trying to do the same.

It's not really worthwhile having larger stakes on 'the shorties', I tend to find I'vce backed every 'hot pot' at a decent price through the year anyway, but horses around the 5/1 6/1 mark are ones I do like. Horses like Angel's Breath, Or Master Dino, or Champ... that aren't exactly 'good value' now, but they're decent enough if a couple connect.

COuldn't agree more regarding related form and related multiples that others have mentioned too.
 
Completely agree with FM and Mayo on this one. Mayo has been my FJ hero as he dreams of that life changing accumulator. When I'm at the course I am more than happy to go race by race and bet in singles but, at any other time, I love to chase that dream of winning thousands for a small stake. I know it's stupid, I know the bookies laugh at me but it just adds to the anticipation. For me, life is like vacations: 80% anticipation and 20% reality. I just want to have as much to anticipate and dream about as possible.

In terms of strategy, the difficulty in knowing which races horses will turn up in (the horses I fancy as well as their potential rivals) means that I wait as long as possible before placing any accumulators. The 48 hour entry makes a difference as you can, effectively, know three days declared runners by 11am on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. The markets really don't change much in the last couple of weeks (unless there is a shock injury or absentee) and the 'day of' prices can be as good as , if not better, than ante post.
Of course, I am going to miss some early ante post prices but, if other horses are non-runners, then it's a moot point when it comes to the acca.
 
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Day 1 and day 3 both run on new ground and can help Favs....specially day 1.....as i tend to avoid favs, then its a good saver strategy to have an accumulator on short-priced ones

Had not done one on the day Annie Power fell at last......and was prob one of few who backed one behind....but done them since

Another option is ground specialists.....might be interesting, given how strange weather has been this year.....though would assume course will be soft, or close after publicity....favouring stayers more?
 
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I do quite a few combination bets with some good ones and some bad ones like anyone.
Its frustrating though getting say 2 up in one L15 and then 2 in a Trixie or something. This year myself and a mate are going to trying a perm type treble. So we are pooling our fancies in 3 races and picking out 4 horses in 2 of the races and 3 in the other one.

Just trying to decide which races at the moment but we have kind of narrowed it down to Gold Cup, Ryanair and X-Country. Our other choice was the Arkle. Once we have decided I will put them up on here and see how they go. I think a £1 combo Treble costs £48 on that 4-4-3 basis. Should be fun trying to nail it anyway!!
 
Kevloaf said:
Who had that cracking pick up on Thursday lady year. Shattered Love and Balko Des Flos were in it ... was it Charlie?
Click to expand...

Boom, Shattered, Balko and The Storyteller. What a day :highly_amused:
 
Bayoffreedom said:
Completely agree with FM and Mayo on this one. Mayo has been my FJ hero as he dreams of that life changing accumulator. When I'm at the course I am more than happy to go race by race and bet in singles but, at any other time, I love to chase that dream of winning thousands for a small stake. I know it's stupid, I know the bookies laugh at me but it just adds to the anticipation. For me, life is like vacations: 80% anticipation and 20% reality. I just want to have as much to anticipate and dream about as possible.

In terms of strategy, the difficulty in knowing which races horses will turn up in (the horses I fancy as well as their potential rivals) means that I wait as long as possible before placing any accumulators. The 48 hour entry makes a difference as you can, effectively, know three days declared runners by 11am on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. The markets really don't change much in the last couple of weeks (unless there is a shock injury or absentee) and the 'day of' prices can be as good as , if not better, than ante post.
Of course, I am going to miss some early ante post prices but, if other horses are non-runners, then it's a moot point when it comes to the acca.
Click to expand...

Love this BOF, although I have refined my bets a little this time around, seem to have spent more (due to winnings at festivals along the way), but have covered a wider base, have done more singles and 'any race' bets than ever before and I do feel better about it, however I still have a helluva lot of multi's on too, from doubles up to super heinz'......got to dream, haven't we?
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The singles are the daily/weekly grind and, although enjoyable, will never make a difference to my life.

I want a Steve Palmer style face spitter and will keep trying for one until I'm 6ft under.

On the theme of multiples. Related multiples can be really beneficial. Either same owner, same trainer or even same form lines. It's been mentioned on here before but the Vautour/UDS double was available at 40/1+ (I didn't back it btw) early in their novice chasing season.

Delta Work / Le Richebourg, Santini / OK Corral, DDS / Le Richebourg, Thomas Darby / Brewinupastorm are all related doubles that I've done so far.
Click to expand...

I had done DW/LR, but hadn't thought about it like that. That's an interesting tilt and I like it

And for the avoidance of doubt, you better believe I still put £2 each day on a through the card retire to a tropical island fund
 
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