Mug Bets and Smug Bets...

[Istabraq]

Of course very happy with these.........

The Ante Post E/W Yankee:

Might Bite 12/1
Gods Own 20/1
Ballyoptic 16/1
Djakadam 14/1

The Ante Post Win Yankee:

Death Duty 11/4
On The Fringe 7/2
Cantlow 4/1
UKWIMH 9/4

 

[ryanh97]

My mug bet is a bet have't placed. That bet is the win yankee ^. I never got round to placing it and the prices have shattered now, I think that's a full house.

 

[Leman14]

Of course very happy with these.........

The Ante Post E/W Yankee:

Might Bite 12/1
Gods Own 20/1
Ballyoptic 16/1
Djakadam 14/1

The Ante Post Win Yankee:

Death Duty 11/4
On The Fringe 7/2
Cantlow 4/1
UKWIMH 9/4

I had forgotten how good the prices are (especially on the EW Yankee!)
All the prices have pretty much halved for the WIN Yankee!!!

 

[Kevloaf]

I had forgotten how good the prices are (especially on the EW Yankee!)
All the prices have pretty much halved for the WIN Yankee!!!

:encouragement: A minor miracle that *all 8* are still standing at this stage!

 

[jono]

So the question has to be, is AP really worth it ?
I know the answer depends on whether your vouchers fall in bracket 1, 2 or 3 but the level of uncertainty is huge, does it really pay or do AP bets merely increase our interest levels and get the juices flowing ?

You're about 10 days too early to get a true answer on this - come back to us on March 18th

I think the second point is a very important aspect for myself personally. I'm never in a case where by i'm relying and NEED my antepost bets to come in otherwise it's doom and gloom. I'm probably slightly more cautious than others on here looking at the size of most peoples antepost books(jealous!) when it comes to my antepost betting, mainly in part to having to pay for both a wedding and a house to renovate for the last 2 years so it's always been little bits here and there and not as much as i'd have ideally liked.

I'll be gutted if every single one of my bets fall flat but by the time the festival rolls around I've got a seperate fund to cover the week and antepost then acts as a bonus when any (hopefully) come in. If they don't (and as long as I haven't blown all my money on bets on the day :very_drunk I can still enjoy the week.

Every August i'm itching for the National Hunt season to get into gear and am already looking towards the festival, hey i'm even looking in April time :highly_amused: It's something I massively enjoy (clearly like most on here) and as long as i'm not losing every antepost bet year on year - the enjoyment in the 5-6 months leading up to the festival is worth the losers. If you told me now antepost betting was to stop after this years festival in all honesty - i'm not sure what i'd be doing between September > March

I've been in profit each season with antepost betting but i've never gone back and compared the bets to what the profit/loss would have been if I had just of bet on the day but i'm going to add this in after this years festival and see what the outcome is. See whether without losing bets on injuries/switched targets, that would have outweighed the shorter prices come the day as I'd like to see the difference

 

[jono]

:encouragement: A minor miracle that *all 8* are still standing at this stage!

Shhhh don't jinx them!

 

[Istabraq]

Jono - for me the deciding factor isn't the level of profit, it's how many of your horses make the races you back them in and at what price they are come the day...

 

[Kevloaf]

For me this year, it isn't as black or white as saying "ante-post worked or didn't". Of course technically I'll have the exact figures to tell me, but that isn't the whole picture, as it affects what I would/could have backed if I hadn't placed a bet yet...for example....

if I hadn't placed an ante post bet... how would I have the potential to win on horses like Altior, Douvan and Yorkhill? Now just as a treble, I have that at 83/1, for 1 point. Placed the day Altior was declared as going chasing and having put up my reasoning on here for the JLT to be Yorkhills target (re: Min) I am personally really pleased with myself, even if it doesn't come off! If I hadn't had that bet, (and it should be noted I also had Min, Douvan, Yorkhill) then the odds are LESS than 4/1 now. I would have to stake 10 points on that treble and I don't think I'd want to do that... it would seem a huge outlay and unless I had been literally saving money in a pot, then the points will start coming out of that months pay and all of a sudden, 10 points on that becomes 5, because i want at least 4 points per race or whatever it would be...

Going to make for some interesting reading though :triumphant:

 

[ComplyOrDie]

My embarrassment at my early November mug bets, trying to second guess Mullins/Ricci, no more of that next season after 3 years of trying.

I'm sure I'm not the only one and some are due to injury so a bit unlucky to a degree, but more intelligence and discipline is needed next season.

 

[loveracing]

I would say its impossible for "us" to go through the build up to the fest, collaborate like the way we do, and then not have a bet, its like keep going to the pub to not drink.

Can you imagine not following the build up and only turn the first page when nrnb kicks in? To me thats way too late for studying, the fact is you will have a lot less knowledge and will probably end up losing more. So I think AP betting is good in a way, just make sure you set your limits until nrnb comes out.

On the day I will probably lose more this year because I haven't had the time to try to get to know the majority of the fields. Most of my bets this year are based on your guys quotes and tips.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Kev - which multiple bet are you most looking forward to at the moment? Is it the 83/1 treble, or do you have others that look equally as good at this stage?

 

[ryanh97]

Personally I view my antepost bets to the extent that the money I have used on antepost is gone and if they all lose im not completely heartbroken. I've not missed the money ive used so if it they lose oh well and if they win then great. Being a student I don't drink or smoke to the extent a lot of others do so the money most people use for that I use instead for having a bet whether its week by week or antepost. It's my leisure activity looking through the racing and trying to seek value for the festival. The prices I have are nowhere near the quality some of you guys have but still looking at the 6/1 I have on DDS and 4/1 for OTF, i'm happy to be in that position. I've only been betting on the Fest for 3 years now and still hold the opinion that if I break even then im happy.

 

[loveracing]

Personally I view my antepost bets to the extent that the money I have used on antepost is gone and if they all lose im not completely heartbroken. I've not missed the money ive used so if it they lose oh well and if they win then great.

Spot on ryan, AP bets are just bonuses (if they run)

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I have staked more than ever on ante post this year and really need Altior to win on Tuesday.

90% of my betting bank is on ante post bets or the tied up in the exchanges, having traded my position. If I have a bad day on Tuesday it could be a long road back.......

As for my bets, they best at the moment are:

Melon 14/1
Altior 5/1 (my biggest ever bet)
OTF 6/1
Death Duty 12/1
Diamond King 16/1
Peregrine Run 33/1
Champers on Ice 33/1 & 25/1 (4 miler)
Mega Fortune 25/1 & 20/1
Western Ryder 25/1

My worst bet (possibly of all time) has to be Old Guard for the Arkle

I won't have time to write out all my bets but we'll have to set up a thread afterwards to analyse how well we did (or didn't) do.

 

[Istabraq]

90% of my betting bank is on ante post bets

Interesting FM, I've got more tied up this year (Ante Post) than ever, not in around 30 years of punting have I come close to the volume or bets or money invested already.
That said, I started taking advantage of the Sky money back offers and have about £500 re-invested from free bets, and where I'd watch a game of football and have a few quid on over 2.5 or under corners I started watching the games and having yet another AP interest with the stake I was happy throwing away on a footy match I couldn't care about.
I know exactly what I've got invested but it doesn't feel like I've spent that sum already, and I'll have plenty more come next week, though 25+ yankees is ridiculous !
I'll certainly be using free bets next year on ante post...

 

[Yeehaa]

Its been a particularly bad year for injuries but I will wait for NRNB next year.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev - which multiple bet are you most looking forward to at the moment? Is it the 83/1 treble, or do you have others that look equally as good at this stage?

I suppose that is right up there, I have a couple similar (Altior / Yorkhill at 41/1 1.5 points EW and 41/1 2.5 points win) so Yorkhill is just going to be sickening to watch. I probably won't sleep, as if Altior and Douvan have won (which isn't done until its done) I'll be waiting on the biggest returns that I've ever managed.

I won't be laying off anything this year, been toying with it for a while but haven't managed my finances well enough (or just staked everything that I should have used for laying) haha so I will "let them run". I've basically been arbing myself all season anyway so will see it through and might take a different approach next year. Backing to lay off shorter doesn't seem as fun, but seems much more sensible.

Others I like are Melon / Altior at 125/1 1 point... that'll be a lovely start :highly_amused:

I like Neon Wolf / Empire of Dirt 2 points each way @ 49/1 because even the place is a nice return and I can't see them not hitting the frame at least!

I want to post every bet I've got but not sure anyone would read it/care


*** not all good of course, almost 200 points dead already .... 674 live still

 

[Seemorebusiness]

Smug Bets

Death Duty - 20/1 and 12/1
Messire Des Obeaux - 25/1
Moon Racer - 16/1 Supreme, 33/1 Champion Hurdle
Charbel - 25/1 e/w
Champers On Ice - 25/1 e/w
Singlefarmpayment - 16/1

Mug Bets

Thistlecrack - 7/1 (8pts..!! Awful start)
Invitation Only - 8/1 any race
Ballyoptic - 12/1
Load of Min/Yorkhill/American Tom doubles
Defi De Seuil - 25/1 Supreme no NRNB

So a pretty mixed bag..!! Death Duty is the key horse though.

 

[TimRiggins]

I suppose that is right up there, I have a couple similar (Altior / Yorkhill at 41/1 1.5 points EW and 41/1 2.5 points win) so Yorkhill is just going to be sickening to watch. I probably won't sleep, as if Altior and Douvan have won (which isn't done until its done) I'll be waiting on the biggest returns that I've ever managed.

I won't be laying off anything this year, been toying with it for a while but haven't managed my finances well enough (or just staked everything that I should have used for laying) haha so I will "let them run". I've basically been arbing myself all season anyway so will see it through and might take a different approach next year. Backing to lay off shorter doesn't seem as fun, but seems much more sensible.

Others I like are Melon / Altior at 125/1 1 point... that'll be a lovely start :highly_amused:

I like Neon Wolf / Empire of Dirt 2 points each way @ 49/1 because even the place is a nice return and I can't see them not hitting the frame at least!

I want to post every bet I've got but not sure anyone would read it/care


*** not all good of course, almost 200 points dead already .... 674 live still

I've got 2pts on the Altior & Yorkhill @ ~40/1, and the treble with ADO @ ~190/1

Think those are the only multiples I've got left, with maybe a couple yankees, too.

Not 100%, but I reckon I'm holding around 100/150pts that are live, and half that in toilet paper.

 

[mullinsmull]

Mug bets

Senewalk 12/1
Min 6/1
Thistlecrack 7/1

all biggish stakes down the pan

Smug-ish if one win??

Unwimh 11/2

Carter McKay 25/1 biggest single return

OTF 7/2

Yorkhill 7/2

Genie in a bottle 14/1