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Most Likely Winners

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The Fat Jockey Forum Most Likely Winners......


Supreme
Klassical Dream 45%
Al Dancer 3%
Angels Breath 29%
Aramon 3%
Elixir De Nutz 6%
Champagne Platinum 3%
Fakir D'Oudaries 3%
Mister Fisher 6%
Arkle
Cilaos Emery 45%
Le Richebourg 42%
Hardline 3%
Lalor 10%
Champion Hurdle
Apples Jade 45%
Buveur D'Air 34%
Laurina 10%
Sharjah 7%
Melon 3%
Mares Hurdle
Benie Des Dieux 82%
Laurina 18%
NHC
Ballyward 19%
Discorama 6%
Ok Corral 74%
Ballymore
Battleoverdoyen 43%
Brewinupastorm 7%
Aramon 3%
Klassical Dream 3%
Champ 43%
RSA
Delta Work 47%
Santini 40%
Topofthegame 13%
QMCC
Altior 97%
Min 3%
Cross Country
Tiger Roll 89%
Mall Dini 4%
Josies Orders 4%
Auvergnat 4%
Bumper
Andy Dufresne 25%
Blue Sari 29%
Envoi Allen 17%
Ask For Glory 4%
Thyme Hill 4%
Eden De Houx 4%
Blackbow 4%
Master Debonair 13%
JLT
Camelia de Cotte 3%
Champagne Classic 14%
DDS 45%
Lostintranslation 24%
Drovers Lane 3%
Real Steel 7%
Voix Du Reve 3%
Ryanair
Min 45%
Aso 7%
Top Notch 3%
Waiting Patiently 10%
Al Boum Photo 3%
Monalee 31%
Stayers Hurdle
Paisley Park 39%
Faugheen 3%
Penhill 55%
Samcro 3%
Mares Novice
Salsaretta 13%
Honeysuckle 20%
Epatante 27%
Ellusive Belle 13%
Emily Moon 7%
Sinoria 7%
Chante Niege 7%
Buildmeupbuttercup 7%
Triumph
Sir Erec 64%
Quel Destin 7%
PDO 25%
Carlo Biraghi 4%
Albert Bartlett
Rockpoint 10%
Rhinestone 3%
Kateson 21%
Birchdale 10%
Champ 3%
Commander of Fleet 31%
Dickie Diver 7%
Dinons 3%
Lisnagar Oscar 3%
Easy Game 7%
Gold Cup
Kemboy 14%
Al Boum Photo 7%
Presenting Percy 72%
Clan Des Obeaux 7%
Foxhunters
Caid Du Berlais 16%
Fennos Storm 12%
Gilgamboa 12%
Hazel Hill 16%
Pacha du Polder 12%
Stand Up And Fight 32%

**** I do not guarantee the statistical accuracy of these results ****



We've seen 99% of the form, plans are mostly set, time to nail colours to the mast.


So ignoring current odds and assuming normal Cheltenham ground, what are your MLWs? (non-handicap)


Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Le Richeburg
Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
Mares: Laurina
NHC: Ballyward
Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
RSA: Delta Work
Champion Chase: Altior
Cross Country: Mall Dini
Champion Bumper: Blue Sari
JLT: Lostintranslation
Ryanair: Monalee
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
Triumph: Sir Erec
Albert Bartlett: Kateson
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Hazel Hill


That gives the following trainer tally:
Mullins - 4
Elliot - 3
Joseph O'Brien - 2
HDB - 2
Patrick Kelly - 2
Henderson - 1
Tizzard - 1
Philip Rowley - 1
Tom Lacey - 1
Emma Lavelle - 1

Interestingly I don't have one for Nicholls, although I expect him to do well (Topofthegame, Pic D'Orhy et al. have great chances). I was also surprised I've only got one Henderson horse down despite him currently having six market favs. I'm probably underestimating him here but I'm against a lot of those based on experience (Angels Breath, Ok Corral). The handicaps I can't take a proper view on till I see the conditions and who lines up on the day, but based on the above I'd say Prestbury Cup is going to Ireland's way again this year. 8/11 lump on job:devilish:
 
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ignoring odds, here's your winners at this juncture.

Supreme: Fakir D'oudaries
Arkle: Le Richeburg
Champion Hurdle: Laurina
Mares: Benie des dieux
NHC: Ok Corral
Ballymore: Champ
RSA: Delta Work
Champion Chase: Altior
Cross Country: Tiger Roll
Champion Bumper: Andy Dufresne
JLT: Defi Du Seuil
Ryanair: Monalee
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
Triumph: Sir Erec
Albert Bartlett: Commander of Fleet
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Pacha du Polder
 
Pat Kelly to have more festival winners than Nicky Henderson.

You'd get a price on that Bobby.
 
Supreme: angels breath
Arkle: cilaos emery
Champion Hurdle: buveur dair
Mares: Bennie des dieux (just over stormy I)
NHC: discorama
Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
RSA: topofthegame
Champion Chase: Altior
Cross Country: auvergnat
Champion Bumper: ( winner hasn't ran yet)
JLT: defi de seuil
Ryanair: min
Stayers: Paisley park
Mares Novice: (winner hasn't ran yet)
Triumph: (winner hasn't ran yet)
Albert Bartlett: easy game
Gold Cup: al boum photo
Foxhunters: ucello conti
 
Supreme: Mister Fisher
Arkle: Le Richeburg
Champion Hurdle: Buveur Dair
Mares: Laurina
NHC: OK Coral
Ballymore: Champ
RSA: Delta Work
Champion Chase: Altior
Cross Country: Tiger Roll
Champion Bumper: Envoi Allen
JLT: Lostintranslation
Ryanair: Monalee
Stayers: Penhill
Mares Novice: Epatante
Triumph: Sir Erec
Albert Bartlett: Dinons
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Gilgamboa
 
Pat Kelly to have more festival winners than Nicky Henderson.

You'd get a price on that Bobby.

I would definitely consider a dabble, not sure who would price that kind of bet. That said I had Nicky's down as NB for quite a few of those.
 
Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Cilaos Emery
Champion Hurdle: Buveur D'Air*
Mares: Benie des Dieux
NHC: Ok Corral*
Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
RSA: Santini
Champion Chase: Altior
Cross Country: Tiger Roll
Champion Bumper: Andy Dufresne
JLT: Defi du Seuil*
Ryanair: Min*
Stayers: Penhill*
Mares Novice: Mullins
Triumph: Sir Erec (Though Pic D'Orhy if runs)
Albert Bartlett: Kateson
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Stand Up and Fight

Altior and Presenting Percy the only 2 i'm very confident on out of the lot, Altior of course a certainty
I have a feeling this year could throw out a whole host of unexpected results though. A season of delays, setbacks, unusual ground will probably mean a fair bit of the form we have seen could be turned upside down.

Albert Bartlett is still a minefield imo as is the Bumper. Mares Novice rightly or wrongly I still side with the view Mullins must have one better than what we have seen. [Supreme] is very much a case of seeing how good Angels Breath actually is. Will very much come down to if they get another run into him and if he can prove he deserves his place at the head of the market but until then, I couldn't side with him. Finally the RSA is a belter of a race but i'm actually on the fence with a preference. For all I loved Santini's debut, valid excuses at Kempton, there's a nagging doubt there especially after Hendersons recent blog on him being the slowest horse he's trained. The Reynoldstown performance needs to be a good one... Those are the races i'm least sure of right now

*races I see very much as match bets. Buveur vs Apples / Min vs Monalee / Penhill vs Paisley Park but preference for the selected.

Gives the following to each trainer:

Henderson - 5
Mullins - 5
Elliott - 3
O'Brien - 1
Kelly - 1
Hobbs - 1
Lacey - 1
Bolger - 1

Henderson will need to go out all guns blazing on the first 2 days to get his winners, as I can't see many winners on the second 2 days. Can see the first 2 days going in a similar vein to last year where Elliott struggled on day 1 where Mullins pulled away but Elliott then recovers Tuesday. If the above is correct though Elliott will need to fire in a few in the handicaps. Friday put a stop to the Mullins/Henderson/Elliott juggernaut and will be the day for the 'smaller trainers'
 
Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Le Richebourg
Champion: Apples Jade
Mares: Laurina
NH Chase: OK Corral
Ballymore: Brewinupastorm
RSA: Santini
QMCC: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Blackbow
JLT: DDS
Ryanair: Waiting Patiently
Stayers: Penhill
Mares Novice: Not a clue
Triumph: Sir Erec
Potato: Birchdale
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: SUAF
 
Supreme: Angels Breath
Arkle: Le Richebourg
Champion Hurdle : BVD
Mares: Laurina
NHC: Ballyward
Ballymore: Champ
RSA: Santini
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Andy Dufresne
JLT: Defi du Seuil
Ryainair: Min
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares nov: Elusive Belle
Triumph: Pic D’orhy
Bartlett: Relegate
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Fennos Storm
 
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Supreme: Angels Breath
Arkle: Cilaos Emery
Champion Hurdle : Apples Jade
Mares: BDD
NHC: Discorama
Ballymore: Brewin’upastorm
RSA: Topofthegame
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Master Debonair
JLT: Lostintranslation
Ryainair: Monalee
Stayers: Penhill
Mares nov: Mullins
Triumph: Pic D’orhy
Bartlett: Kateson
Gold Cup: ABP
Foxhunters: Fennos Storm
 
Supreme: Angels Breath
Arkle: Cilaos Emery
Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
Mares: BDD
NHC: Ok Corral
Ballymore: Champ
RSA: Delta Work
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Envoi Allen
JLT: DDS
Ryainair: Min
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares nov: Mullins
Triumph: Hope Pic D’orhy, Sir Erec on what we’ve seen.
Albert Bartlett: Dickie Diver
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Stand up and Fight
 
Supreme: Aramon
Arkle: Hardline
Champion Hdle : Sharjah
Mares : Benie Des Dieux
NH Ch. : Ballyward
Ballymore Hdle. : Klassical Dream
RSA : Delta Work
QMCC : Altior
X Country Ch : Tiger Roll
Bumper : Envoi Allen
JLT : Real Steel
Ryanair : Min
Stayers Hdle: Faugheen
Mares Nov Hdle:Relegate
Triumph Hdle : Sir Erec
A.Bartlett : Commander Of Fleet
Gold Cup : Kemboy
Foxhunters : Hazel Hill
 
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Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Cilaos Emery
Champion Hurdle: Apples Jade
Mares: Benie des dieux
NHC: Ok Corral
Ballymore: Champ
RSA: Delta Work
Champion Chase: Altior
Cross Country: Tiger Roll!!!!!!!!
Champion Bumper: Envoi Allen
JLT: Defi Du Seuil
Ryanair: Aso
Stayers: Penhill
Mares Novice: Honeysuckle
Triumph: Quel Destin
Albert Bartlett: Commander of Fleet
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Pacha du Polder
 
Supreme - Angels Breath but a close call from KD
Arkle - Le Richebourg
Champion Hurdle - Apples Jade
Mares - Laurina
NHC - OK Corral
Ballymore - Champ
RSA - Santini
CC - Altior
X Country - Tiger Roll
Bumper - Andy D
JLT - DDS
Ryanair - Monalee
Stayers - Paisley Park
Mares Novice - Sinoria
Triumph - Sir Erec or Pic D’orhy
Spud - Birchdale
Gold Cup - Presenting Percy
Foxhunters - Stand up and Fight

Close Brothers - Glen Forsa
Fred Winter - Band of Outlaws
Coral cup - Storyteller
Ultima - Coo Star Sivola
 
Lots of people going for Laurina in the Mares. Have to say that is very unlikely. WPM said she goes Champion and - Ruby needs a decent ride in that and - the owner is dead set on going for the big one and - they have BDD and Stormy Ireland for the Mares. Relying on a Vautour like switch is dodgy.
 
Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Le Richebourg
Champion Hurdle : Apples Jade
Mares: BDD
NHC: Ballyward
Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
RSA: Santini
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Eden De Houx
JLT: Champagne Classic
Ryainair: Waiting Patiently
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares nov: queennohearts
Triumph: Carlo Biraghi
Bartlett: Rockpoint
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Caid Du Berlais

Be interesting to look back on this thread on the Saturday!
 
Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Cilaos Emery
Champion Hurdle : Apples Jade
Mares: BDD
NHC: Ok Coral
Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
RSA: Topofthegame
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Ask For Glory
JLT: Camelia de Cotte
Ryainair: Min
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares nov: Chante Neige
Triumph: Sir Erec
Bartlett: Kateson
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Pacha Du Polder
 
Supreme: Al Dancer
Arkle: Lalor
Champion Hurdle : Sharjah
Mares: BDD
NHC: Ok Coral
Ballymore: Champ
RSA: Santini
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Thyme Hill
JLT: Drovers Lane
Ryainair: Aso
Stayers: Paisley Park
Mares nov: Elusive Belle
Triumph: Sir Erec
Bartlett: Rockpoint
Gold Cup: Clan des obeaux
Foxhunters: Caid du Berlais
 
Supreme - Angels Breath but a close call from KD
Arkle - Le Richebourg
Champion Hurdle - Apples Jade
Mares - Laurina
NHC - OK Corral
Ballymore - Champ
RSA - Santini
CC - Altior
X Country - Tiger Roll
Bumper - Andy D
JLT - DDS
Ryanair - Monalee
Stayers - Paisley Park
Mares Novice - Sinoria
Triumph - Sir Erec or Pic D’orhy
Spud - Birchdale
Gold Cup - Presenting Percy
Foxhunters - Stand up and Fight

Close Brothers - Glen Forsa
Fred Winter - Band of Outlaws
Coral cup - Storyteller
Ultima - Coo Star Sivola

My mistake I’m not sure why I put Laurina for the mares I meant BDD, I think Apples Jade will win the Campion Hurdle but wouldn’t be surprised if Laurina beats Apples & BD
 
Supreme: Klassical Dream
Arkle: Cilaos Emery
Champion Hurdle : Apples Jade
Mares: BDD
NHC: Ok Coral
Ballymore: Battleoverdoyen
RSA: Delta Park
Champion Chase: Altior
X Country: Tiger Roll
Bumper: Blue Sari
JLT: Defi De Seuil
Ryainair: Min
Stayers: Penhill
Mares nov: Chante Neige
Triumph: Sir Erec
Bartlett: Dickie Diver
Gold Cup: Presenting Percy
Foxhunters: Hazel Hill