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MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

Eggs said:
….Elliott;



Minella Sixo, Sporting Glory, Staffordshire Knot, Timmy Tuesday and possibly Mordor could run here. Wodhooh is the pick of ours. This has been the plan all year and her form has worked out very well.

The second, third and fourth from her last start at Cheltenham have all won listed or graded races since then. It wasn’t ideal to miss time with her due to a setback - she nearly missed a year - but hopefully she should definitely come forward for the run.

We said we’d go straight here after her last start at Cheltenham. She’s in great form. Off a mark of 141, she’s still unexposed. She could be well-handicapped and has won at the track, which is massive. Danny Gilligan will ride her.
​
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Some of them triple figures on the exchanges

Obvious his best chance but nice to have the others backed just in case they popped up, for a small relative punt
 
Kevloaf said:
Some of them triple figures on the exchanges

Obvious his best chance but nice to have the others backed just in case they popped up, for a small relative punt
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I have no evidence to back this up, it's pure vibes, but I really don't like it when Elliot turns up mob handed in a handicap. He's an incredible target trainer, but if he has more than 2 it feels more like he's throwing spaghetti at the wall to see if it's cooked
 
robith said:
I have no evidence to back this up, it's pure vibes, but I really don't like it when Elliot turns up mob handed in a handicap. He's an incredible target trainer, but if he has more than 2 it feels more like he's throwing spaghetti at the wall to see if it's cooked
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He usually goes heavy in the Pipe, I believe.

I did have a look at this a few weeks back.

He had 7 in it last season and won it.
 
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robith said:
I have no evidence to back this up, it's pure vibes, but I really don't like it when Elliot turns up mob handed in a handicap. He's an incredible target trainer, but if he has more than 2 it feels more like he's throwing spaghetti at the wall to see if it's cooked
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I know you have admitted yourself you have no evidence to back it up, and just vibes, if you had said it under any other race I might not have responded... but with this race he has history of wanting to win it and go mob handed, and has done so even last yesr obviosuly winning it too.
 
robith said:
I have no evidence to back this up, it's pure vibes, but I really don't like it when Elliot turns up mob handed in a handicap. He's an incredible target trainer, but if he has more than 2 it feels more like he's throwing spaghetti at the wall to see if it's cooked
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It's not so much the mob handed thing I'm suspicious with, it's the fact he's basically saying 'back Wodhooh'. I've seen him interviewed on RTE enough times to know he gives fuck all away when he's got one of his well handicapped. Not that she's much of a price now anyway but he's put me off her with his positivity :biggrin-new:
 
I will never ever forget Gordon telling everyone The Storyteller was the one for it

BUT (and newer members may not know)

Some will recall me tipping up Column Of Fire from a long, long way out .... even before Sax was doing his race planning diaries .... and he did NOT talk him up for it for a long, long time.... in fact he tipped others on the preview circut and we were ROBBED :applouse:



So...... robith - I'm just a sucker for finding 'his', and the more he has, the more chance I'll back em all :indecisiveness:



Unfortunately for me I probably also feel the same now about Joseph and Cromwell

So I'll probably have half the field before I try and find Willie's :angel::semi-twins:
 
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Martin Pipe confirmations
Tounsivator
Wodhooh
Bunting
No Ordinary Joe
No Questions Asked
Minella Sixo
Bo Zenith
The Enabler
Uncle Bert
Kopeck De Mee
Taponthego
Karafon
Push The Button
Act Of Authority
Captain Morgs
Vischio
Nurse Susan
Minella Missile
Doyen Quest
Beat The Bat
Electric Mason
Park Of Kings
Jipcot
Raglan Road
Flash Collonges
Punctuation
Stormbreaker
Mordor
Dr Eggman
Blaze The Way
Deep Cave
East India Express
Guard The Moon
Harsh
Irish Panther
Spirit D’Aunou
Norman Fletcher
Fenway Park
Wilde About Oscar
Aston Martini
Timmy Tuesday
La Pinsonniere
Go To War
Blenkinsop
Bride’s Beau
Hamsiyann
Kimy
 
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I have my opinion, but intrigued to hear what backers of Wodhooh are thinking with her likely carrying 11-12?

She's been very popular on here and social media for a fair while now.
 
Keen on the enabler here. Decent back form and the right kind of profile. Interesting that he's not been entered over 2m so they must have faith in his ability to stay this trip
 
Blackdownhills said:
Keen on the enabler here. Decent back form and the right kind of profile. Interesting that he's not been entered over 2m so they must have faith in his ability to stay this trip
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Not that it means much, but Gordon did nominate the Martin Pipe as the target for The Enabler right at the start of the season

I remember it, as I decided to make a 'notes' tab on my spreadsheet to keep track of through the season





I added no other notes this season to that tab
 
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Gordon said coral cup for enabler other day.
could change of course
always can when they have entries
 
Quevega said:
Gordon said coral cup for enabler other day.
could change of course
always can when they have entries
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All that chasing of Minella Sixo by yours truly and he could end up being Gordon's Pipe horse after all.....the first race I mentioned him for :highly_amused:

Not convinced it was first choice. I do still think he was going to be his Pertemps horse, given how he was going in the qualifier, which wouldn't be ideal.
 
Quevega said:
Gordon said coral cup for enabler other day.
could change of course
always can when they have entries
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Yea true, but gigginstown like this race and i think they only have him and harsh in this currently. They have a couple others already in the coral cup too so I'm hoping they'll want to spread their options
 
ComplyOrDie said:
All that chasing of Minella Sixo by yours truly and he could end up being Gordon's Pipe horse after all.....the first race I mentioned him for :highly_amused:

Not convinced it was first choice. I do still think he was going to be his Pertemps horse, given how he was going in the qualifier, which wouldn't be ideal.
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He’s still in the AB isnt he? :barbershop_quartet_member:
 
…. Skelton’s Nurse Susan given a haircut tonight.
 
Key Trends from Recent Martin Pipe Hurdle Winners
  • Age: Every winner of this race since its 2009 inception has been aged 5 to 7, with the vast majority 5 or 6 years old​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . No horse older than 7 has won in that span, so younger, improving types hold an edge. (11 of the last 12 winners were geldings as well​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    – mares have won this just once).
  • Weight Carried: All of the last 12 winners carried between 11 st and 11 st 10 lb (154–164 lbs)​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . In fact, none carried less than 11 stone, and most carried in the 11-3 to 11-9 range. Top-weights can win (e.g. Early Doors with 11-10 in 2019), but horses at the bottom of the handicap (under 11-0) have not produced a winner in the race’s history.
  • Official Rating (OR): Winners have come from a fairly narrow ratings band. All of the last 12 winners were rated ** roughly mid-130s to mid-140s** on official ratings​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . In practice, every recent winner had an OR between 133 and 145. Horses rated much below 133 have struggled to get their head in front, and 135+ is an especially positive zone​
    thestatsdontlie.com
    .
  • Recent Form (Last Race): A good last run is a common theme. 11 of the last 12 winners had finished in the top 5 on their latest start​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    , and 6 of those 12 had won their previous race​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . Coming here off a solid placing or win last time out is a big plus – it’s rare for a horse beaten well down the field last out to rebound in this race. Additionally, winners are usually fresh but not too rusty: 10 of the last 12 had their last run within the previous ~8 weeks (21–60 days before)​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    ​
    thestatsdontlie.com
    . Only one winner in the past decade ran after a break longer than about 10 weeks (Early Doors in 2019 off 77 days).
  • Trainer Trends: Certain trainers target this race successfully. In the 16 runnings so far, Willie Mullins (4 wins) and Gordon Elliott (3 wins) account for nearly half the victories​
    bookies.com
    . Irish-trained horses in general have dominated recently – 6 of the last 8 winners were trained in Ireland​
    bookies.com
    . By contrast, some top British yards have struggled: for example, Nicky Henderson hasn’t won it since the inaugural running in 2009 despite many attempts​
    bookies.com
    . A proven “festival handicap” trainer is a positive signal. (Because this is a conditional jockeys’ race, no jockey has won it twice – notably, the last 10 winning riders were all celebrating their first-ever Festival win​
    bookies.com
    .)
  • Country of Breeding: The Irish-breds have had the most success, reflecting the Irish dominance in similar staying handicaps. 8 of the last 12 winners were bred in Ireland, and 3 were French-bred​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . Only one British-bred horse has won in that period​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . This trend favors horses with an “(IRE)” or “(FR)” suffix over those bred in Great Britain.
  • Starting Price (Market Position): Historically, this final race of the Festival often produces a mid-priced winner. Outsiders do well – 9 of the last 12 winners returned at 11/1 to 25/1 SP​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    . It has not been kind to favorites: no favorite has won in the last 12 runnings, and only 2 winners in that span started among the top five in the betting​
    freeracingtips.co.uk
    ​
    thestatsdontlie.com
    . In other words, fancied horses can certainly run well, but value seekers often strike gold in this race.
  • Other Notable Patterns: Winners tend to be progressive novices or second-season hurdlers with relatively few miles on the clock. 9 of the last 10 winners had run no more than 8 times over hurdles (i.e. lightly raced)​
    bookies.com
    , and all had at least one hurdle win to their name. Experience at the trip is important: all but one of the last 10 winners had at least placed in a 2½-mile (≥19f) hurdle before, showing they stay the distance​
    bookies.com
    . Many had been contesting graded novice hurdles or strong handicaps prior – horses “just below Grade 1 class” often thrive in this race​
    bookies.com
    . Headgear is rare among winners (10 of the last 12 wore no headgear) and 10/12 had at least 3 runs in the current season​
    thestatsdontlie.com
    , indicating they were fit and primed.
Applying the Trends to the 2025 Runners


Below is a list of the 24 declared runners for the 2025 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle, with the number of key trends (from those above) that each horse satisfies. We considered 9 major trends (age 5–7, carrying ≥11-0, OR in 133–145 range, last ran within ~60 days, placed top 5 last time, trainer Mullins/Elliott, bred in IRE/FR, has 2m4f+ hurdle form, and not a short-priced favorite). This gives a rough “trend match” score out of 9 for each horse:
Minella Sixo8 out of 9
The Enabler8 out of 9
Act Of Authority8 out of 9
Tounsivator7 out of 9
Wodhooh7 out of 9
No Questions Asked7 out of 9
Taponthego7 out of 9
Karafon7 out of 9
Push The Button7 out of 9
Doyen Quest7 out of 9
No Ordinary Joe6 out of 9
Uncle Bert6 out of 9
Kopeck De Mee6 out of 9
Nurse Susan6 out of 9
Raglan Road6 out of 9
Mordor6 out of 9
Electric Mason5 out of 9
Park Of Kings5 out of 9
Harsh5 out of 9
Punctuation4 out of 9
Stormbreaker4 out of 9
East India Express4 out of 9
Flash Collonges3 out of 9
Wilde About Oscar3 out of 9
Trend analysis highlights: The horses at the top of the list – Minella Sixo, The Enabler, and Act Of Authority – each tick 8 of the 9 trends. For instance, all three are 6 or 7 years old, carry 11-stone-plus in the handicap, have mid-130s official ratings, come here in good form (each ran within the last month and had a solid finish last time out), and are either Irish-trained or from yards with a strong race record. Minella Sixo and The Enabler are both trained by Gordon Elliott (seeking his fourth win in the race) and have proven stamina at 2½ miles, which bolsters their profile. Act Of Authority, while from a British yard, also fits the typical winner’s mold well – he’s a French-bred 7-year-old with two wins this season and a consistent profile​
freeracingtips.co.uk
​
thestatsdontlie.com
.

A group of seven horses score 7/9, including notable contenders Tounsivator, Wodhooh, No Questions Asked, Taponthego, Karafon, Push The Button, and Doyen Quest. Most in this cluster drop points mainly on one or two factors. For example, Wodhooh is an unbeaten mare who fits almost every trend (age, weight, rating, form, trainer, breeding, etc.) except two: she’s returning from a 90-day layoff (longer than ideal) and will likely go off a short price (around 4/1 second-favorite) – trends she’ll need to defy. Tounsivator (Willie Mullins’ top-weight) similarly has strong credentials but carries 11-12 (slightly above the typical winning range) and was only 7th last time out, which knocks him down a peg. No Questions Asked hits many key stats (7yo, Irish-bred, good recent form) but hasn’t raced beyond 2 miles in novice company, so his stamina for 2m4f is unproven against the trend of winners with 2½-mile form. Karafon and Taponthego are two 5–6yo Irish-trained geldings who also fit the profile well – each has run well in graded novice hurdles and carries a nice racing weight – though Karafon was well beaten last time (7th in a Grade 1) and Taponthego is shorter in the betting (~8/1) than the typical winner.

Several fancied runners sit a bit lower on the trend count. For instance, Kopeck De Mee (5/2 favorite) scores 6/9 on our trends: he’s the right age and weight and is a Mullins French import, but he hasn’t run since last May (major negative on freshness) and has never run beyond 2¼ miles​
bookies.com
. He’s a classy unknown quantity who would be bucking a few historical patterns if he wins. No Ordinary Joe (6/9) also fails on a couple of key angles – he’s a 9-year-old (older than any recent winner) and is short in the market (~10/1). On the positive side, he was runner-up in this race before and comes off a good prep run, but trends suggest others might have more in their favor.

Bringing up the rear of the rankings are horses like Flash Collonges and Wilde About Oscar (3/9 each), who fall outside the typical winner profile in multiple ways. These two are 10-year-olds (well past the usual age range), carrying low weights off lower ORs than usual, and haven’t shown much recent spark. They would need to overturn many longstanding trends to contend. Similarly, a few others with 4/9 or 5/9 (e.g. East India Express, Stormbreaker, Harsh) have clear negatives such as being British-bred and/or running off a long break or low rating.

It’s worth noting that trends are not absolutes – any horse can overcome one or two negatives with the right conditions or improvement (indeed, last year’s winner Better Days Ahead was a well-backed 5/1, shorter than the typical profile​
bookies.com
). However, the patterns do paint a picture of the ideal contender: a 5–7 year old Irish or French-bred gelding, carrying at least 11 stone, rated in the 130s or low 140s, coming off a good recent run, representing a top Festival stable (especially Mullins or Elliott), and not overbet by the market. Horses that tick more of those boxes – as highlighted above – should be major players in the 2025 Martin Pipe, whereas those with multiple breaks in the profile have history working against them. The ranked list and table make it clear which runners match the established trends most closely, providing a helpful gauge as you narrow down the field. Each race can produce its own story, but going with the grain of these trends has proven to be a winning strategy in this particular Cheltenham finale.
freeracingtips.co.uk
​
thestatsdontlie.com
​

ChatGPT deep research mode on the martin pipe..
 
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