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MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle 2021

Hurdles or chasing said:
Forgot to back Langer Dan in the end. What do people think will he get in?
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...Skelton said there was ‘nil chance’, looks like 10 need to come out. Fingers crossed he does, that 50-1 NRNB looking good and Skelton says he will definitely run if he gets in.
 
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I know 14s still available with 365. But Blue across board. Might still go county, but my eyes were brought to GALLOPIN DES CHAMPS TO PLACE HERE 10/3
 
Racing TV presenter said that the 5lb penalty that Langer Dan gets, puts him on 135.

Any horses on 135 need ten at least to come out to get in the race.

RTV stated that Langer Dan would be at the “bottom” of the ten horses on 135, so twenty would need to come out.

Im not sure of that rule, but they seemed to be.
 
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Saxon Warrior said:
Racing TV presenter said that the 5lb penalty that Langer Dan gets, puts him on 135.

Any horses on 135 need ten at least to come out to get in the race.

RTV stated that Langer Dan would be at the “bottom” of the ten horses on 135, so twenty would need to come out.

Im not sure of that rule, but they seemed to be.
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Yep
I worked out at least 10 will come out and maybe more, but wasn't sure where he ranked in the 135's
If they are right then he's up against it
 
Not that it should make much difference this close to the festival but racing post showing floueur changed stables from Elliot/Sneezy to Joseph
 
Quevega said:
Yep
I worked out at least 10 will come out and maybe more, but wasn't sure where he ranked in the 135's
If they are right then he's up against it
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I took some of the big prices for this before his win yesterday so I’d really like him to get in. It was a great example of a NRNB bet with very little downside. If he didn’t win he had no way of getting a run and a win meant he stood a better chance than the 50/1 that was available yesterday morning.

The big problem now is getting into the race and I think he looks up against it. I was hoping he wouldn’t be bottom of the horses on 135. I’m assuming the rule is a horse with a penalty is last and judged on its official mark still in the list?

If the Racing Post is right he’s number 44 and needs 20 of the 43 above him to come out. I think 27 of them have double entries. The owner has two other runners, Willie Mullins has a horse running at Naas today who you would think is unlikely to run and Up The Straight had a very hard race yesterday at Sandown so very unlikely he’ll be declared. That still leaves 16 from 39 to drop out.

The position will become a bit clearer on Monday as a lot of the double entries are in the Coral Cup.

I think he’ll just miss out but if he does get in then he’s very interesting. Admittedly it was a weak running of the Imperial Cup and the race fell apart, but he won as he liked.

His handicap mark is now the same as when he finished 6th in the Boodles last year when he was running on at the finish. He also has a nice run behind Botox Has at the course. Wind op recently and first run back was laying him out for yesterday.

Skelton has confirmed he will run if he gets in and although there is a question mark about the gap between the two races, he’s going to be well handicapped compared to his mark in the future. The bonus obviously adds a further incentive to run.

There will be others in the race that are well handicapped as well but I think 10/1 NRNB still has some mileage in it. If he gets in at the bottom there is no way he goes off at that price imo.

It will be a bit ironic if he doesn’t get in as he got dropped one lb for his run at Market Rasen. That one lb could make all the difference.
 
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Yes, the numbers on 135 and 136 look like its going to be a bit tricky.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Yes, the numbers on 135 and 136 look like its going to be a bit tricky.
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If he had 136 I’d be really confident he’d get in.

Do you know the rules around how they decide which ones on the same mark get in? Aside from this problem, I’ve never been sure how it’s done?
 
Skysthelimit said:
If he had 136 I’d be really confident he’d get in.

Do you know the rules around how they decide which ones on the same mark get in? Aside from this problem, I’ve never been sure how it’s done?
Click to expand...

Racing TV host yesterday was saying if any horse has a penalty applied it goes to the bottom of the list of horses on the same weight.
There are ten horses on 135 :confusion:
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Racing TV host yesterday was saying if any horse has a penalty applied it goes to the bottom of the list of horses on the same weight.
There are ten horses on 135 :confusion:
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Looks like the Racing Post is right then with him at 44. He would have only needed 10 to come out on 136 and I can see 4 or 5 obvious ones.

If anyone knows how they decide who out of the 10 gets in and in what order that would be helpful for the future, unless it's just random!
 
Skysthelimit said:
Looks like the Racing Post is right then with him at 44. He would have only needed 10 to come out on 136 and I can see 4 or 5 obvious ones.

If anyone knows how they decide who out of the 10 gets in and in what order that would be helpful for the future, unless it's just random!
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BHA rules

1.2.4 Horses with the same weights - where it is necessary to eliminate some but not all horses with the same weights, those that have incurred penalties will be eliminated first and those without penalties will be eliminated in the published ascending order, such order having been determined by random balloting. Penalised horses with the same weights will also be eliminated in the published ascending order determined by random balloting, unless the horses concerned have different penalties in which case the horse with the lower penalty will be given priority. Any horse previously omitted from a Handicap or given an incorrect weight as provided for under Rule 134 will be added randomly to any horses on the same weight and such horse will be subject to elimination, if necessary, in accordance with that revised random order

It looks like they draw a ballot out at declaration stage, then publish the racecard numbers in descending order, already determined by that ballot.

So the racecard order is the right order for getting a run or not.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
BHA rules

1.2.4 Horses with the same weights - where it is necessary to eliminate some but not all horses with the same weights, those that have incurred penalties will be eliminated first and those without penalties will be eliminated in the published ascending order, such order having been determined by random balloting. Penalised horses with the same weights will also be eliminated in the published ascending order determined by random balloting, unless the horses concerned have different penalties in which case the horse with the lower penalty will be given priority. Any horse previously omitted from a Handicap or given an incorrect weight as provided for under Rule 134 will be added randomly to any horses on the same weight and such horse will be subject to elimination, if necessary, in accordance with that revised random order

It looks like they draw a ballot out at declaration stage, then publish the racecard numbers in descending order, already determined by that ballot.

So the racecard order is the right order for getting a run or not.
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Thanks for sharing this. I thought if anyone knew or could find out, it would be you!
 
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Just having a quick look at what the Coral Cup declarations do with regards to the Pipe and the Langer Dan dream.

I make it 8 above him either declared or almost certainly won’t go

DECLARED
Monte Cristo
Janika
My Sister Sarah
Saint Sonnet
Sayo
Guard your dream

EDIT: I missed 3 more!
Dysart Diamond
Sneaky Getaway
Palmers Hill


RECENT RUN
Up The Straight
Lady Breffni

9more to come :eagerness: here’s hoping

Just to confirm I’ve had to edit this 3 times
 
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Might_Bite said:
Just having a quick look at what the Coral Cup declarations do with regards to the Pipe and the Langer Dan dream.

I make it 8 above him either declared or almost certainly won’t go

DECLARED
Monte Cristo
Janika
My Sister Sarah
Saint Sonnet
Sayo
Guard your dream

EDIT: I missed 3 more!
Dysart Diamond
Sneaky Getaway
Palmers Hill


RECENT RUN
Up The Straight
Lady Breffni

9more to come :eagerness: here’s hoping

Just to confirm I’ve had to edit this 3 times
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Thanks Might Bite. I think Heaven Help Us is also in the Coral Cup. The Shunter unlikely to run, Ngolo has multiple entries and Ganapathi looks like going to County. I think there are 7 horses with County hurdle entries and the owner of Langer Dan has an entry (Ecco). It's going to be really tight but he might get in as no 24.

The 10/1 with B365 is still available. I'd be confident he goes off much shorter than this if he gets in.
 
There are 12 Coral Cup entries that were above Langer Dan in the Pipe entries/weights, so he now needs only 8 to come out above him in the Pipe.


There are also 8 County Hurdle entries that are above Langer Dan in the Pipe.

Champagne Gold
N'Golo
Leoncavallo
Galopin des Champs
Ganapathi
The Shunter
Fire Attack
Dolciano Dici

So its not impossible for him to get in on Friday.

The one thing that may make Dan Skelton wish he'd made more than one entry is, that he would have got into the Coral Cup today with 5lb to spare. :blue:

That would have meant two days lest rest for the horse though.
 
Cheers Saxon I was way off!

There’s hope but I’d say it’s still likely he’s going to be on the reserves.

Keep the fingers crossed
 
Saxon Warrior said:
There are 12 Coral Cup entries that were above Langer Dan in the Pipe entries/weights, so he now needs only 8 to come out above him in the Pipe.


There are also 8 County Hurdle entries that are above Langer Dan in the Pipe.

Champagne Gold
N'Golo
Leoncavallo
Galopin des Champs
Ganapathi
The Shunter
Fire Attack
Dolciano Dici

So its not impossible for him to get in on Friday.

The one thing that may make Dan Skelton wish he'd made more than one entry is, that he would have got into the Coral Cup today with 5lb to spare. :blue:

That would have meant two days lest rest for the horse though.
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I thought that too about the Coral Cup.

I counted 10 Coral Cup entries so hope you're right. There are a couple with Pertemps entries as well. The owner won't run Ecco if he can get in.

From the 8 County hurdle entries, Ganapathi and GDC are very strong and Fire Attack is very weak. HDB has said Champagne Gold runs here. Who knows with The Shunter but Plate is looking favourite.

I'm more hopeful than I was yesterday. It would be great to get some some redemption after Column of Fire last year.

Do do you like him Saxon and what do you make of his chance? He seems to have gone under the radar but I think that will change if he sneaks in, although Willie looks like he has a couple of well handicapped horses. I do have both of them onside.
 
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