Ive gone against the plan of NRNB for this one, but I wanted the extra 8 points available with only one bookie (Uni), he wont miss the cut, and his trainer said on his blog this week that he is targeted at the Martin Pipe after working well, and Chester Williams (18% strike rate this year) is engaged to ride him.
Espoir De Romay 33/1 Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle
Looking at his background, he is trained by Kim Bailey, one run a year ago over hurdles, a third place behind Jatiluwah.
The trainer is in great form this season and has good chances in other handicaps (Vinndication, Imperial Aura, Newtide), and this one has gone under the radar, which is great for current prices.
The horses started the season in November in a 2M4F Warwick Novice Hurdle (Good to Soft) and he beat West Cork (now rated 139) by 3&1/2 lengths in second, and Kalookie (now rated 143) back in 4th beaten 18&1/2 lengths.
EDR jumped big for the first two hurdles then he got very slick over them, and ended up a ready winner.
Form since beaten by EDR at Warwick in November
West Cork 112 (including beat Mister Coffey by 7 lengths, and 2nd to Highway One-O-Two in the Grade 2 Dovecote last weekend)
Hometown Boy 312 (including a 12-length win, and a second beaten 3&1/2 lengths by McFabulous, giving the winner 6lbs!!)
Kalookie 112 (including two 17-length wins, and then a 2nd beaten 4 lengths in a Grade 2 by Ramses De Teille two weeks ago, 3rd was beaten over 20 lengths further back)
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Three weeks later he ran on Heavy Ground over 2M6F at Newcastle, with a 5lb penalty for his win, and he ran a beautiful race, hurdling slickly, and even at the last he seemed likely to prevail from two challenges, before tying up late, on the heavy ground over the extended distance, to be beaten a length into third.
The trainer has since intimated in his blog that the horse needs time between races, and he gave him two months off before his next run on 30th January over 2M4F at Wincanton (Soft) in a Conditionals handicap Hurdle carrying 12st top-weight and a rating of 132, and he travelled well, hurdled wonderfully, and cleared away after the last, to bolt up by 6&1/2 lengths.
He got a rise of 11lbs to 143, which was reduced by 1lb to 142 recently, and the trainer gave him the time he thinks the horse needs between races before deciding to put him in one (conditionals) handicap, having had a conditional ride him in all three races this season.
His last piece of work seems to have convinced the trainer that the time between races has brought him back to being ready for run, and he has engaged his jockey choice for the Martin Pipe.
The videos of his three runs show how quick he gets across hurdles, his trainer is in form, and his only defeat was narrow, with a reason given as running back too quickly after his seasonal debut. I like this as it shows the trainer, even though beaten just a length, seemed to believe he was better than that, and altered his time between races accordingly.
He will do for me, and 25/1 NRNB is also available, which I may top up on too.
