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Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

Lobos said:
Absolutely. IMO though 8's will look spectacular value for her come race day which is why I've gone in now. I can always cover her, and probably will, with other Mullins beasts when they appear.
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I won't be backing any of the Mullins lot at 8/1 right now. Too many potential horses still to come out. But best of luck :encouragement:
 
All fair points across the board but this race in particular highlights the risks in that a few weeks ago Gypsy Island was flying and heading here, then she had a setback, then Princess Zoe appeared from the clouds as a new hotpot only for connections to realise she’s too good for hurdling.
Of course it’s all about taking a view/punt but there are times and races to do that, we all approach it in different ways and none of us get it right all the time, but, and I alluded to it earlier, if I am going to take a punt I’d want a fair price that reflects the risk attached...
 
Istabraq said:
All fair points across the board but this race in particular highlights the risks in that a few weeks ago Gypsy Island was flying and heading here, then she had a setback, then Princess Zoe appeared from the clouds as a new hotpot only for connections to realise she’s too good for hurdling.
Of course it’s all about taking a view/punt but there are times and races to do that, we all approach it in different ways and none of us get it right all the time, but, and I alluded to it earlier, if I am going to take a punt I’d want a fair price that reflects the risk attached...
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I completely agree with all of that Ista.

Gypsy Island and Princess Zoe are prime examples as you noted.
 
Istabraq said:
All fair points across the board but this race in particular highlights the risks in that a few weeks ago Gypsy Island was flying and heading here, then she had a setback, then Princess Zoe appeared from the clouds as a new hotpot only for connections to realise she’s too good for hurdling.
Of course it’s all about taking a view/punt but there are times and races to do that, we all approach it in different ways and none of us get it right all the time, but, and I alluded to it earlier, if I am going to take a punt I’d want a fair price that reflects the risk attached...
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Has GI had a setback? I know there were rumours but were they confirmed? Not backed her but know a few have
 
As it happens, when it was decided that Airlie Beach was going straight to Cheltenham from the Royal Bond, in January I think, it was still very much open for debate as to whether she'd go for the Mares Novice, the Supreme or the Neptune/Ballymore. It was only when Bunk Off Early ran so well in the Deloitte that she was confirmed as going for this.
 
archie said:
As it happens, when it was decided that Airlie Beach was going straight to Cheltenham from the Royal Bond, in January I think, it was still very much open for debate as to whether she'd go for the Mares Novice, the Supreme or the Neptune/Ballymore. It was only when Bunk Off Early ran so well in the Deloitte that she was confirmed as going for this.
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Did a reason come to light why she ran so bad or was it just she didn't handle the course?
 
Istabraq said:
All fair points across the board but this race in particular highlights the risks in that a few weeks ago Gypsy Island was flying and heading here, then she had a setback, then Princess Zoe appeared from the clouds as a new hotpot only for connections to realise she’s too good for hurdling.
Of course it’s all about taking a view/punt but there are times and races to do that, we all approach it in different ways and none of us get it right all the time, but, and I alluded to it earlier, if I am going to take a punt I’d want a fair price that reflects the risk attached...
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Just seen Archies comment.
But was going to post.

Imagine if Shewearsitwell ran in the supreme ?
 
Quevega said:
Just seen Archies comment.
But was going to post.

Imagine if Shewearsitwell ran in the supreme ?
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I can't. Mullins just doesn't do that these days. Mob handed in the Mares Novices again I suspect. She'd be very competitive in a Supreme no doubt especially with that ridiculous allowance!
 
Shewearsitwell looks all speed to me so the old course may suit her better - complete guesswork this far out but certainly wouldn't rule it out.
 
Lobos said:
If we all thought like that we'd never have s bet though surely? You have to take a stance and go with your gut or else what's the point?
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Fair enough. Disagree with highlighted. There aren't many examples of the Royal Bond>Mares Novice and it's worth considering. Doesn't mean you'd never have a bet though....:encouragement:
 
Lobos said:
Did a reason come to light why she ran so bad or was it just she didn't handle the course?
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From memory, both Airlie beach and la bague au roi went like the clappers and paid for it late on. dropped like stones.
Lets dance was held up.
 
Quevega said:
From memory, both Airlie beach and la bague au roi went like the clappers and paid for it late on. dropped like stones.
Lets dance was held up.
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The way they bet Let's Dance that day I wouldn't put it past Mullins that AB was used as a pacemaker then. Dirty barsteward.
 
Lobos said:
Did a reason come to light why she ran so bad or was it just she didn't handle the course?
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Nothing clinical but Willie did wonder if she was a little too fresh. Plenty of conspiracy theories about setting the race up for Let's Dance who was in line for the big bonus and had been widely touted as a good thing.
 
archie said:
Nothing clinical but Willie did wonder if she was a little too fresh. Plenty of conspiracy theories about setting the race up for Let's Dance who was in line for the big bonus and had been widely touted as a good thing.
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Does sound fishy. We'll never know though.
 
Not sure if it’s much of a cheltenham bet but noticed Princess Vega ran in Tiger Roll’s flat race today.

Obviously not retired to breeding after her appearance last year over hurdles.
 
Theres still hope for princess zoe turning up here if your on the WH special like me. According to tony mullins interview with the irish field a lot depends on whether she wins this weekend, if she doesnt it sounds like theres a decent chance she'll go hurdling, as its the owners "life ambition" to have a horse good enough for cheltenham.
 
riccirich said:
Theres still hope for princess zoe turning up here if your on the WH special like me. According to tony mullins interview with the irish field a lot depends on whether she wins this weekend, if she doesnt it sounds like theres a decent chance she'll go hurdling, as its the owners "life ambition" to have a horse good enough for cheltenham.
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Ugh... could be my first big cashout regret if that happens. Usually very cautious with cashing out but thought there was no chance of her going hurdling after her last win. :(
 
riccirich said:
Theres still hope for princess zoe turning up here if your on the WH special like me. According to tony mullins interview with the irish field a lot depends on whether she wins this weekend, if she doesnt it sounds like theres a decent chance she'll go hurdling, as its the owners "life ambition" to have a horse good enough for cheltenham.
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Thought my bet was dead in the water , that 25/1 i got starting to look appealing again.

She would set a very high standard if she does go down path to Cheltenham.
 
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