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Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

I'll probably back Willie's other 5 as well. As we know he's the only one allowed to win the race. It's actually written in the conditions.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Shewearsitwell

Willie Mullins has entered 2 Mares in the Royal Bond in the last 10 years, and done very well with them.
They have a 7lb weight advantage over the geldings.

Airlie Beach won the race in 2016, by 6&1/2 lengths, at 4/1, with an RPR of 141.
That was 1lb lower than her form coming into the race (RPR 142).

Zuzka at 12/1 was 3rd in 2012, btn 2&1/2 lengths by Jezki, with Champagne Fever splitting them. (form good enough for them to go on to finish 1st and 3rd in the Supreme 3 months later)
She posted an RPR of 142 for the race (6lb above her prior rating of 136).

WPM doesn’t waste bullets with his Mares in the Royal Bond.

Shewearsitwell already has a better rating than either of those posted before the Royal Bond or to win/place in that Grade 1, with a current RPR of 148.

With a 7lb allowance, that means if she repeated the 148 in the Royal Bond, then any gelding would need to post 156 to beat her.

Only one gelding in 10 years has done that, in the race, Envoi Allen posted 156, so about a length better than Shewearsitwell, when beating Abacadabras last year.

Every other Royal Bond in the decade recorded winners rated RPR 141 to 151.

Willie could take the Airlie Beach route, with the Down Royal Grade 3 in 4 weeks, and then the Royal Bond 4 weeks after that.

A this point, she wouldn’t have to improve anything at all to win the Royal Bond, or the Mares Novice Hurdle.

An added bonus is that she is by Shirocco out of an Old Vic mare, the same as Annie Power. :encouragement:

As well as taking 10/1 post race,
I’m going to start smaller stakes doubles on her with other Festival horses, as if she arrives in the MNH fit and well she could easily be the top-rated horse in the race, as the MNH has proved to generally be a race lacking any depth at all in its 6 years, on ratings (though good Mares develop from it after their Novice year, of course, like Epatante, Verdana Blue etc, that weren’t top novices).
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Really good analysis, spot on!!

Each mare needs to be taken on their own merits rather than compared to ones which have gone before because of small similarities or ones which 'may' come out. Couldn't have been more impressive yesterday & the RPR backs that up.
If this was some French mare which a cost a few quid rather than a leased mare I think the reaction to SWIW performance may be different.
 
If we are talking about bad value I would suggest those that head up the likes of the Supreme (a much more competitive race) without having reappeared or jumped a hurdle would be well ahead of this one.
 
kinloch brae said:
If we are talking about bad value I would suggest those that head up the likes of the Supreme (a much more competitive race) without having reappeared or jumped a hurdle would be well ahead of this one.
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Absolutely, plus we can be pretty certain She will be heading to the Mares Novice whereas the end target cannot be certain for any that head the betting for the other Novice races
 
Good detailed analysis Saxon be very interesting if running to mid 140 in receipt of weight :encouragement:
 
archie said:
As a leased club mare, it's unlikely that Shewearsitwell was seen as a G1 mare a few months ago. Her career has had a similar trajectory to Airlie Beach and she will surely continue to give them a lot of fun, probably in races that Airlie won. Based on that experience, her current price is poor value.
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Patrick Mullins compared Shewearsitwell to Airlie Beach in this preview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LN1O9pJjO50&feature=youtu.be

Around 7 mins 30.
 
Just wait for something from France to win round Tramore or somewhere in February then bolt up in this
 
Outlaw said:
Good detailed analysis Saxon be very interesting if running to mid 140 in receipt of weight :encouragement:
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I think that the comments from the trainer were, interesting:

“It was a good performance and she's improving all the time. She's a sharp little jumper and that was a huge benefit to her in this contest, stepping up in grade. At least I know now that she's competitive over the minimum trip, so I wouldn't be afraid to keep her at that trip. I'll have a word with Paul though because he said she was probably going as fast as she was able to, so when the better hurdlers come out it might be difficult. So far, so good. We're very happy for Closutton Racing Club as it's their first graded winner. It's good to have a nice mare for them. We'll try and keep her to mares’ company and she'll have to go up in grade now. The dream would be to be good enough to run in the Royal Bond. She's good enough to run in it now anyway and that will be in the back of our minds. We might try and find something between now and then for her. Timewise Down Royal could be a possibility for her.”
 
Well that's it then.

How many trainers will come out now and say well that's the Mare's Hurdle in the bag? I suspect none.

As ever I think this is about people who have 'missed the boat' trying to convince themselves they haven't 'missed the boat'. Probably happens on all threads.
 
I well missed the boat, but there is genuinely some nice ones to come! My whirlwhind, rose of acardia, brandy love etc
 
Alrite, well thats it then..winner is found
 
Can someone please say that “she’ll take all the beating come March”? I can rest easy then :devilish:
 
Just listened to the Betfair Podcast with Gordon Elliott and I think it’s telling how early Queens Brook is discussed.
They’d have agreed which horses to discuss and he clearly thinks a huge amount of her.
Talented, stated target, course form and apparently goes on all ground.
Whilst I think it’s folly to get stuck into this race too much in advance I think it’s this one that excites me most at this stage.
 
OscarWhisky said:
Just listened to the Betfair Podcast with Gordon Elliott and I think it’s telling how early Queens Brook is discussed.
They’d have agreed which horses to discuss and he clearly thinks a huge amount of her.
Talented, stated target, course form and apparently goes on all ground.
Whilst I think it’s folly to get stuck into this race too much in advance I think it’s this one that excites me most at this stage.
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She's probably one of the ones that excites me the most, but i'm not sure it's for this race tbh. She seems more of a mare for further in trip....he even touched on it in the pod.
 
jack1092 said:
She's probably one of the ones that excites me the most, but i'm not sure it's for this race tbh. She seems more of a mare for further in trip....he even touched on it in the pod.
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Listened to it yesterday and yes he said that a trip will bring out her best but I’m sure he said she’s being trained for the mares novices
 
BookieBasher said:
Listened to it yesterday and yes he said that a trip will bring out her best but I’m sure he said she’s being trained for the mares novices
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Yeah he did, just would be my main concern given we know Mr Mullins usually has an abundance of mares that are well suited to the 2m trip!
 
Queens Brook -
On the face of it, was disappointing just then.
But the other two might also end up in the mares novice. Don't think they were mugs.

She does look like she may need further though, and her price looks wrong on that basis as Willie will surely have some French horse with more class.

Obviously it could be bad ground in March I suppose.
 
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