Mares Novice Hurdle 2020

[JackieMoon33]

Her owners have concertista too, who you'd have to think would be a certainty to run in this, regardless of how she gets on beforehand.

Yes Concertista looks to have been deliberately held back to run again after missing out last year and retaining her novice status. Market has not missed her though.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Possibly but Mares have an awful record in the Triumph. She would nearly be fav in the Novice Mares if declared based on her sensational Auteuil win.

I'm not sure of the stats but do mares have a poor record in the Triumph because they tend to have very few runners?

Conversely, what are the stats for 4 year olds running in the novice races at Cheltenham? I'm not sure they are particularly great either.

Her Auteuil win was against her own age group though, not older novices. I'm not sure you can take the form from different age groups so literally. Older horses will be a different kettle of fish based on growth, scope and progression.

 

[Lobos]

I'm not sure of the stats but do mares have a poor record in the Triumph because they tend to have very few runners?

Conversely, what are the stats for 4 year olds running in the novice races at Cheltenham? I'm not sure they are particularly great either.

Her Auteuil win was against her own age group though, not older novices. I'm not sure you can take the form from different age groups so literally. Older horses will be a different kettle of fish based on growth, scope and progression.

It was a listed race at Auteuil so the form is strong. The Novice Mares is never that strong form wise.

 

[jack1092]

It was a listed race at Auteuil so the form is strong. The Novice Mares is never that strong form wise.

Wouldn't say that's strictly true Lobos. It was visually impressive + all that, but Mullin's does have a habit of unearthing very good mares that start off in the MN.

The second has been beat since + hasn't won a race.

 

[JackieMoon33]

It was a listed race at Auteuil so the form is strong. The Novice Mares is never that strong form wise.

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

 

[archie]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

 

[JackieMoon33]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

Where would you stand on the below Archie?

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

 

[archie]

Where would you stand on the below Archie?

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

Probably not if we're talking the Triumph Apples Jade (she seemed to be much better at Aintree) but inter-generational comparisons can only ever be subjective.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Probably not if we're talking the Triumph Apples Jade (she seemed to be much better at Aintree) but inter-generational comparisons can only ever be subjective.

of course, purely hypothetical...

 

[Lobos]

Here's a poser for you then; If they were both running in the same season, would a juvenile Apples Jade have beaten Laurina in the Mares Novices hurdle?

Not a hope. Apple's Jade simply isn't the same horse at Cheltenham.

 

[billymag]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

Connections money was down early on her for this so that might of influenced that decision.

 

[Lobos]

The Triumph is a G1 worth about £20k more to the winner than the G2 Mares Novice.

JP's last comparable filly was Apple's Shakira and she went for the Triumph. It will, of course, depend on what happens in the next few months but as it stands it would be about 10/1 FF turning up here.

Is she owned by JP ? I'll take some of that 10/1 please !

 

[JackieMoon33]

Not a hope. Apple's Jade simply isn't the same horse at Cheltenham.

Ok I’ve made this a bit harder than I wanted.

Still hypothetically. IF Apples Jade acted as well at Cheltenham as anywhere else; would a juvenile Apples Jade beat Laurina in the Mares Novices Hurdle.

 

[Lobos]

Ok I’ve made this a bit harder than I wanted.

Still hypothetically. IF Apples Jade acted as well at Cheltenham as anywhere else; would a juvenile Apples Jade beat Laurina in the Mares Novices Hurdle.

No, not on Laurina's demolition performance. Nothing would have beaten her that day. She was sensational.

 

[archie]

Previous runnings of this race:

2016 - 2 out of 16 runners were 4yos. Finished 14th and PU.
2017 - 1 out of 16 runners was a 4yo. Finished 9th.
2018 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.
2019 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.

 

[Lobos]

Previous runnings of this race:

2016 - 2 out of 16 runners were 4yos. Finished 14th and PU.
2017 - 1 out of 16 runners was a 4yo. Finished 9th.
2018 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.
2019 - No 4yo out of 22 runners.

How many of those 4yo though had won twice as a 3yo including by 18 lengths on their hurdling debut and by 9 lengths in a £75000 listed race in France ?

 

[JackieMoon33]

If the best juvenile fillies would not beat the best novice Mares (case above; Apples versus Laurina), why would they go up against her elders? This is also based on the assumption FF is going to turn out that good, which is a long way from being proven as not many other horses have run yet, let alone the main pretenders.

I’d want cash out if I was taking that punt for sure.

 

[Lobos]

If the best juvenile fillies would not beat the best novice Mares (case above; Apples versus Laurina), why would they go up against her elders? This is also based on the assumption FF is going to turn out that good, which is a long way from being proven as not many other horses have run yet, let alone the main pretenders.

I’d want cash out if I was taking that punt for sure.

Think you need to factor in FF is an experienced flat horse as well so very different from the normal novice Mares runners. Plus, her chances of winning the Triumph are hardly any better based on the stats of mares in that race, last one to win 19 years ago. Could the Fred Winter be an option?

 

[JackieMoon33]

Think you need to factor in FF is an experienced flat horse as well so very different from the normal novice Mares runners. Plus, her chances of winning the Triumph are hardly any better based on the stats of mares in that race, last one to win 19 years ago. Could the Fred Winter be an option?

If she’s as good as you rate her then she’ll be too good for the Fred Winter. I’ll have to keep an eye on that Auteuil form over the coming weeks and months. I assume she’ll probably run soonish back in Ireland too.

 

[Lobos]

If she’s as good as you rate her then she’ll be too good for the Fred Winter. I’ll have to keep an eye on that Auteuil form over the coming weeks and months. I assume she’ll probably run soonish back in Ireland too.

Think they were looking at a big race in the US later this year but that could have changed now that she has been sold to Munir.