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Mares Novice Hurdle 2019

I wouldn't have thought so. She got taken off her feet over 2m2f and found today's 2m6.5f much more to her taste. Dropping back to 2m for this is unlikely to work.
I'm guessing that she might go for a graded 3m novice but it probably depends on what mark the handicapper gives her.
 
Just seen Daphne Du Clos is 16s on WH, very tempted to get on that now as I'm sure she was only 10s previously
 
Native River said:
Just seen Daphne Du Clos is 16s on WH, very tempted to get on that now as I'm sure she was only 10s previously
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Funnily enough I've backed her today NR. Smart bumper form (with Chelts experience), reported to be back in good form after a year off and Henderson quoted as saying he hopes she'll be top class. Same owners as last season's winner too and I'd imagine they'd fancy a crack at retaining the race. I doubt that 16/1 will stick around long if she comes out and proves her well being.

I have to say it's a first for me having a bet in this race so far out but this one just looks a really obvious target.
 
As tempted as I was by the 16/1 with Hills I decided to take 14/1 any race with them instead. Considering connections also have Chante Neige and Salsaretta (who as said already on this thread, could do a Let's Dance), then it seems safer for the sake of 2 points.
 
Really happy with the update on Salsaretta there from Willie: "She is a really nice type of mare that we have always had good regard for. She had an interrupted preparation last season, so hopefully we can keep her sound and get a full campaign into her this season. She won a maiden hurdle last May, so she has her novice status for the full season and we’ll aim her at mares’ novice hurdles."

33/1 still available with WH!
 
The addition of this race received plenty of unfair stick at the time... its shaping up to be one hell of a race next year already.
 
Impossible not to add Relegate isn't it now at 14/1 (15.3/1)

Target is confirmed and she'll just definitely be shorter than she is now.

Deep division but 7s Any race reflects her ability... now we know the target. ...
 
I'd be surprised if Relegate turns out to be the stable first choice, not least because she will surely need further than 2 miles.
 
archie said:
I'd be surprised if Relegate turns out to be the stable first choice, not least because she will surely need further than 2 miles.
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Exactly my thoughts 2 miles a plan until she tells them otherwise, which she surely will
 
Completely agree with archie. Would want to take Relegate on in this. Everything about her pedigree says stayer.

I'll definitely back her if she turns up in the AB though.

I'd also take Willie's comments with a pinch of salt. One thing we can all be certain of, many of these targets will change as the season progresses.
 
archie said:
I'd be surprised if Relegate turns out to be the stable first choice, not least because she will surely need further than 2 miles.
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Yeah he does say she wants further but she'll certainly shorten between now and Christmas.

I'm going to back her tonight 100% with a view to laying it off after her first or second hurdle run.
 
I agree with the comments that Relegate ideally wants further, but so did Let's Dance (2017 winner) who ended up in the Stayers the following year. Willie's tone suggests she might be the first string at this early stage and you've got to consider she might outclass these despite the trip.
 
I'm not sure that I can detect anything in Willie's tone. If anything, he's saying that Cheltenham would be a prep race for her real target at Fairyhouse.
 
I just wanted to give Relegate a chance to get home. I've ridden in this race a good few times for Willie and been handy and it hasn't worked out for me. She's not overbig and I knew she wanted a bit of room, and so we chanced our arm and it all worked out. Down the back I was struggling - I was flat to the boards all the way - but the further we went the better she was going, and I knew she'd finish well - Katie Walsh, jockey.

This quote suggests shes a stayer as well.

However, as Kev says, i think shes a back to lay prospect.

She'll be a box office attraction on her first run, and shorten accordingly. Also, winning a Champion Bumper is some effort for a mare..
 
A good point.

I appreciate all people take different approches. I'd be amazed if I can't profit from this horse specifically
 
Mullins has won all three of these renewals with an odds-on (or almost) shot on each occasion.

My approach here will probably be to have Chante Neige, Relegate and Salsaretta all covered win only at these prices and I'd be surprised if there's not the winner in there, plus the option of trading out to free stakes as Kevloaf/jack1092 suggest. But I think Relegate has to be the pick on what we've seen on a racetrack so far!
 
"She will go novice hurdling. I think she’ll stay quite well, but it will probably make sense to aim her at the mares’ novice hurdle at Cheltenham and then the Grade 1 mares novice hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival."

I respect all 3 of your opinions a lot and I can't imagine Mullins' 'thinking' is wrong and she has shaped like she would get further... but how often do we get a nominated target from Willie? Rarely.... I think sometimes we can over complicate it.

She is available at 15/1

Target nominated by the trainer (which happens rarely)
Only Festival winner in the market
The best form we have for any horse in the race by miles (albeit bumper form)
Trainer by the trainer who has won 3/3
One of the previous winners (Let's Dance) also was a stayer

They are 5 very strong positives so if that is a bad bet at 14/1 (15.3/1 with boost) compared to Chante Neige at 12/1 (13/1 with boost) then I can't imagine me having a successful festival :p, because CN only is that price based on her owner saying she's his one to follow this season couples with Mullins & Sullivan owning Laurina. That CN price has to factor in recency bias from last years festival.

The only negatives I can think of are:

Don't trust Mullins - okay, but I'll still be aiming to profit from it either way
She looks like she wants further - Technically she won over the same distance at Cheltenham so she clearly isn't useless at 2m - and Let's Dance was similar in wanting further and Laurina also won over further in her next start, so it isn't a race where you have to be a 2m specialist, if you're the best horse.


Obviouisly you don't need to have backed either... but to say Relegate isn't a good value bet for the race I don't think is accurate (I know none of you said that, but it is implied) as she HAS TO BE FAVOURITE at this stage of the season

I've only just checked the price and see she's now best price 10/1 fav for the race, which puts me in a nice spot. I don't think you can ask for much more than being ahead of the book in October - a long way to go and plenty of bets to be made, but I think this was value today
 
With respect, Relegate was taken off her feet in the bumper and only won because of the very soft ground. She got properly stuffed on better ground at Punchestown and is most unlikely to be the stable first choice in March.

Any horse that hasn't jumped a hurdle in public is absolutely rank value at 10/1 for a championship race unless you have free cash out or NRNB.
 
archie said:
With respect, Relegate was taken off her feet in the bumper and only won because of the very soft ground. She got properly stuffed on better ground at Punchestown and is most unlikely to be the stable first choice in March.

Any horse that hasn't jumped a hurdle in public is absolutely rank value at 10/1 for a championship race unless you have free cash out or NRNB.
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Or you've backed her at 15/1 and can lay her at less than that for a 'real' free bet during the season :P

and if we have very soft ground again I'll be in tears that I laid any off :highly_amused:

She's been clipped 33% in price today, I know you don't have as many bets as me ante post but I can promise you it is enjoyable to be slightly ahead of the curve on any given day!

There is more than one way to enjoy the Cheltenham Festival - I am having a superb evening, based on an article with a few sentences about 40 odd horses.... what a magnificent sport this is when you take a step back :highly_amused:
 
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