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Mares Chase 2021

Silverbirch said:
If she was dead or out of the festival. Surely he would have said. Which is only good news in my opinion.
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40s matched on the machine for the hurdle today (albeit for peanuts) and 30s for the chase (not for peanuts, considering current market liquidity) The market on Betfair has consistently got it right this season with willies horses before anything has broken publicly, hate to say it but i defo make her odds against to run at the festival now unfortunately
 
Well she’s alive. Which for a while yesterday I was genuinely worried was not the case. For me, that’s a win in itself. Anything after that is a bonus.

From a betting perspective, having seen a very nice looking multiple on my own diary from the summer with her in the mares hurdle, I’d actually be alright if she ran in either race now. But I still think she’d hose up in particular in the Chase.

For now, I’ll just be grateful she’s still alive and kicking. Let’s see what the next 29 days have in store
 
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It’s a strange one, the bookies have suspended all cash outs on her for my singles and multiples for chase or hurdle. They did that a couple of days ago pretty randomly, I can’t really see any reason or news for this move? Other then being privy to information.

It stinks, but it happens every year.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
He couldn't bring himself to say she was Ok, could he? I personally took it as all isn't well.

I just don't understand the secrecy. If she's up against it to get there, why not say so? If they are happy with where she is, why not say so? Just bizarre.
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Around the time the Ferny Hollow rumours were circulating Ruby said on Road to Cheltenham how they little they wanted to give away, as knowing a horse has missed work or had a particular issue would be something he at least would use against them when riding a race. It's like poker. Don't show your hand. Certainly words to that effect.
Shed some light on it as I held that same view beforehand CCM. I'm sure they'd want other yards and jockeys to think Benie des Dieux is still a-ok. And that she isn't vulnerable. They want the easiest races possible and any tactic they can use to force competition away. If that was Rubys view I'd have little doubt the rest of the yard don't have the same thought too.

I don't agree with it. And some may not believe that story. But it at least gave some insight into why they can at times be incredibly reserved.
No doubt there's been plenty of examples where those connected have looked very bad (Aramon a good example above), but it's not like they're making much off the back of it financially.

There's just no incentive from that side imo.
 
HDB on PTKO (sound like all roads lead QMCC)

We are leaning towards the Champion Chase with her. Arkle winners have a fantastic record in the race and we know how much she loves Cheltenham. She has improved a huge amount since she has come back to two miles and she has a great record around Cheltenham, she is unbeaten round there, so I would say we are leaning towards that. Obviously the Mares' Chase is an option, but that race is over two and a half miles. It's something we are in discussion over, but I think we are leaning towards the Champion Chase. I would never have thought a big open track like Leopardstown would have suited her and she seems to just love it at Cheltenham so hopefully we can see the best of her next month.
 
"Benie Des Dieux hasn’t been pleasing me in our quest to get her to Cheltenham and regrettably we have had to make the decision to withdraw her from the Festival. I’ll try to get her to make Punchestown but we’ll have to see how things go. It’s very disappointing for everyone as we thought she would make it to Cheltenham but unfortunately time just ran out."

https://wpmullins.com/breaking-news-benie-des-dieux/
 
Well that settles all the debate a few weeks early.
 
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fatherjohn said:
does this make de bromhead reconsider ptko here?
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​​​​​​Just think De Bromhead wants to find out if he has a chance in the Champion Chase, and theres only.one.way.of finding out. As they say, dont be frightened of one borse, think even if Chacun gets there fully fit, PTKO will.still take him on.
 
Magpie said:
​​​​​​Just think De Bromhead wants to find out if he has a chance in the Champion Chase, and theres only.one.way.of finding out. As they say, dont be frightened of one borse, think even if Chacun gets there fully fit, PTKO will.still take him on.
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I think it would be incredibly optimistic to think its just chacun they have to beat. notebook looked a better horse most of last year and at drf this year. First flow and nube negra are both close on official rating and thats ignoring altior and politlogue
 
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Yes that’s a fair point, I just meant that chacun is so strong in that market, that it opens up the debate if PTKO should move race. If it was not for fav, I doubt there would be any debate. Fav still needs to get up hill, though that looks less problematic after Dublin when it was still tanking up the hill, and horses can always have off days, clatter a fence.
 
fatherjohn said:
I think it would be incredibly optimistic to think its just chacun they have to beat. notebook looked a better horse most of last year and at drf this year. First flow and nube negra are both close on official rating and thats ignoring altior and politlogue
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Surely first flow has no chance going left handed? Could end up in the guinness village. Watch his run in supreme or chase debut at uttox... eeekk

Nube Negra was stuffed by Esprit du Large and Rouge Vif last year (both average horses). Beat an old altior and everything else ran well below form at Kemptom (DDG made a noise and the rest were too bad to be true)

Notebook should be saved for punch. There is no doubt whatsoever that PTKO turns the lep form around with him. She isnt suited by Lep while Notebook is, while she loves Chelt while he cant handle it at all (finished last both starts there)

She ran a quicker time than Polit last year on slower ground. She should have his measure

Altior looks finished on his Kempton form.

Well worth rolling the dice in the Champion Chase. Can always go back to the mares chase in the years ahead.
 
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I'd rather know re BDD now than in 3 weeks, and I suppose it firms up Elimay and perhaps make DDC more likely. Its disappointing but after the exchange move an PM interview yesterday definitely not surprising. I get PM being guarded re targets and not committing horses when he doesn't need to, but it was so obvious in the way he didn't answer the question that something was wrong - I don't get why he didn't just say then. Oh well, first major NR news I suppose and wont be the last
 
The only really bad thing about this whole debacle is that punters just won't put money down in the future, which is bad for everyone
 
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Silverbirch said:
The only really bad thing about this whole debacle is that punters just won't put money down in the future, which is bad for everyone
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In their defence, they said she had a setback at the start of the season and made it clear the intention was to head straight to cheltenham fairly early. I backed her knowing this as did most, so I don't think punters can complain about the outcome, I think its the manner in which news is delivered that leaves a bad smell.
 
Silverbirch said:
The only really bad thing about this whole debacle is that punters just won't put money down in the future, which is bad for everyone
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I don't see that happening. The only thing stopping punters will be the government, but that's a whole 'nother story!
 
Dessie the great said:
Surely first flow has no chance going left handed? Could end up in the guinness village. Watch his run in supreme or chase debut at uttox... eeekk

Nube Negra was stuffed by Esprit du Large and Rouge Vif last year (both average horses). Beat an old altior and everything else ran well below form at Kemptom (DDG made a noise and the rest were too bad to be true)

Notebook should be saved for punch. There is no doubt whatsoever that PTKO turns the lep form around with him. She isnt suited by Lep while Notebook is, while she loves Chelt while he cant handle it at all (finished last both starts there)

She ran a quicker time than Polit last year on slower ground. She should have his measure

Altior looks finished on his Kempton form.

Well worth rolling the dice in the Champion Chase. Can always go back to the mares chase in the years ahead.
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Wouldn’t be worried about First Flow going left handed. Has won at wetherby, Doncaster, haydock, lingfield. All left handed.

Cheltenham may not be his track but I’d think that is due to the configuration of the track rather than the direction they’re running.
 
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