Lossie mouth. Champion hurdle or Mares ?

[BigL]

Where will she end up going and why.....

surely there will be a massive uproar from the media and public if she goes mares again ?

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I’m sure Willie will start with a plan for CH @ then see how season develops

For context…..Lossie ran to 156+7 in winning Mares, whilst State Man only ran to 160 winning CH

Losdie should improve as a 6 year old, whilst unlikely SM could improve

Lot might depend on Constitution Hill ….were he to come back at his best, Willie might do another year in Mares

I think most likely tho she will run in CH & very likely win

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I’m sure Willie will start with a plan for CH @ then see how season develops

For context…..Lossie ran to 156+7 in winning Mares, whilst State Man only ran to 160 winning CH

Losdie should improve as a 6 year old, whilst unlikely SM could improve

Lot might depend on Constitution Hill ….were he to come back at his best, Willie might do another year in Mares

I think most likely tho she will run in CH & very likely win

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Sorry for duplicates ….pls can someone remove ….must be connection issue here

 

[somer1]

Hey Boss ( Kevloaf ) Hows about a poll to start the season off on this thread and the Ballyburn thread where we think they will turn up in March?

 

[Lobos]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

 

[BigL]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

I tend to agree with this ...

 

[somer1]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

What me West Country Cousin was meant to say was "sweet cheery nipples" Lossie wins the CH doing handstands

 

[Lobos]

What me West Country Cousin was meant to say was "sweet cheery nipples" Lossie wins the CH doing handstands

Yes, that's what it translates too of course.

 

[DenmanSacre]

I think Lossiemouth will lose to State Man at the DRF, still take her chance in the CH and beat him. Still won't be enough though as Constitution Hill will canter over her.

​​​​​​Although State Man has won at Cheltenham twice, I don't think he's shown his best in the 3 runnings there and isn't as good as he is in Ireland. Lossiemouth's 3 runs at Cheltenham have arguably been her 3 best runs.

 

[charlie]

Lossiemouth will run in and win the CH.

She'll be 6 , you would think loads of improvement to come, had an easy time last season whilst being fully healthy and gets the ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

Constitution Hill will be 8, had an extremely interrupted season which couldn't have gone much worse health wise, won't have anyone decent to run against this side of the water and we may well see a further decline.

Queen Lossie.

Ratings wise what would you consider loads of improvement? Do you expect a similar ish level of improvement to Honeysuckle or do you think because she 6 there is more room for improvement?

Honeysuckle won the mares rated 158 (RPR 157) and won the CH rated 165. Lossiemouth won the mares rated 155 (RPR 156). Let's say, for argument sake, that Lossiemouth reaches a rating of 165 (same peak as Annie Power), even with the 7lbs allowance (which I agree is ridiculous), CH is rated 175 and there is no reason to think that at 7 going on 8 that he will be in decline. Coincidently the last two 8 year olds to win the CH in the last 10 years were Honeysuckle and Annie Power, which is kind of ironic given this conversation.

We shouldn't forget State Man either. He's rated 169 and has been thoroughly tested so we know exactly how good he is. Annie Power won the CH off a mark of 162 so if Lossiemouth reached that sort level then its no given she'd beat State Man, even with a 7lbs allowance.

I think that saying last season 'couldn't have gone much worse health wise' is OTT. CH had 3 unusual blood markers and it sounded more precautionary from Nicky. He pulled loads from the festival and it could have just been a bug in the yard which is not serious long term, which makes pre-empting 'decline' extremely premature IMO. The fact other horses of his who missed Cheltenham won at other festivals adds to that theory being correct.

I think it will be entirely dependent on what she shows they on the track but a decision will not be made until the week before.

Gut says she'll come up just short in open company. Punters will want them to have a crack at the CH but they'll bottle it and go mares where she'll win at 1/4 and it will be like Vautour 2.0 re going Ryanair and not Gold Cup.

 

[Lobos]

Lossiemouth should be unbeaten and may well end up the best Mare Willie has ever trained IMO. No idea what her ceiling could be as she's done it all so easily so far. I'm pretty sure Nicky was on record as saying the infection CH had was different to his other horses and he did require antibiotics to get over it so it certainly wasn't precautionary. Then he had the separate suspected Colic scare which the yard were very concerned about so he definitely was a sick horse. I'm not sure at 8 we can expect him to hit the heights of 2023 . The 'Wow' factor for me has been missing for his last two wins so it wouldn't take too much more of a dip for Lossiemouth to bridge that gap. I also feel that the lack of competition for CH leading up to the Festival compared to that which Lossiemouth will encounter may also work in the Mares favour. Without doubt all eyes will be watching the return of CH to see if the torrid time he had last season will have any lasting effect or not.

Edit....

This was the comment I have alluded to...

Echoing those sentiments, Buckley, a close and longtime friend of Henderson, said: “He’s had a very tough few weeks, first with that bad infection, which I think was different from what Nicky’s other horses had, and something was clearly awry with this on top of it.
“When you’re on a lot of antibiotics to fight that infection, you’re probably not best-placed to deal with this, but hopefully we don’t have a recurrence and he can put himself back together over the summer.

 

[charlie]

Lossiemouth should be unbeaten and may well end up the best Mare Willie has ever trained IMO. No idea what her ceiling could be as she's done it all so easily so far. I'm pretty sure Nicky was on record as saying the infection CH had was different to his other horses and he did require antibiotics to get over it so it certainly wasn't precautionary. Then he had the separate suspected Colic scare which the yard were very concerned about so he definitely was a sick horse. I'm not sure at 8 we can expect him to hit the heights of 2023 . The 'Wow' factor for me has been missing for his last two wins so it wouldn't take too much more of a dip for Lossiemouth to bridge that gap. I also feel that the lack of competition for CH leading up to the Festival compared to that which Lossiemouth will encounter may also work in the Mares favour. Without doubt all eyes will be watching the return of CH to see if the torrid time he had last season will have any lasting effect or not.

Edit....

This was the comment I have alluded to...

Echoing those sentiments, Buckley, a close and longtime friend of Henderson, said: “He’s had a very tough few weeks, first with that bad infection, which I think was different from what Nicky’s other horses had, and something was clearly awry with this on top of it.
“When you’re on a lot of antibiotics to fight that infection, you’re probably not best-placed to deal with this, but hopefully we don’t have a recurrence and he can put himself back together over the summer.

As far as responses go Lobos that was a bloody good one!! :angel: :boxing:

I wish you'd said all that in your OP - think we need a fish hook emoji :welcoming:

 

[Lobos]

As far as responses go Lobos that was a bloody good one!! :angel: :boxing:

I wish you'd said all that in your OP - think we need a fish hook emoji :welcoming:

You know me......I take a while to get my point across which is why I'm fast approaching 23000 posts !

Once I fall in love with a good Mare I can't let go. She excites me every bit as much as Honeysuckle did and maybe a bit more. Can't wait until we see her again.

 

[charlie]

You know me......I take a while to get my point across which is why I'm fast approaching 23000 posts !

Once I fall in love with a good Mare I can't let go. She excites me every bit as much as Honeysuckle did and maybe a bit more. Can't wait until we see her again.

I know pal! Honeysuckle flash backs :excitement:

if she ends up in the CH, would you prefer an Annie Power esque prep similar to Lossies prep last year (I.e, one run and no deep water kept fresh) or would you rather see Willie throw her in against State Man to show us the fibre of her fabric?

 

[BigL]

You know me......I take a while to get my point across which is why I'm fast approaching 23000 posts !

Once I fall in love with a good Mare I can't let go. She excites me every bit as much as Honeysuckle did and maybe a bit more. Can't wait until we see her again.

Have you placed ya hard earned cash on Lossie ?

 

[Spectre]

Fwiw I had Lossie's performance lower than the official one at Cheltenham. But just like State Man she could only beat what was in front of her.

Taking her RPR as published at 156, and comparing that to the 170 level we know State Man performs to every time he has to, then she has 8lbs of improvement to find to beat him. As a 6 year old that's entirely possible, but less certain than a typical UK or Irish NH bred type.

She's been on the go since she was a 3 year old, as has State Man, and there are comparisons to take from there, in that State Man hasn't really improved his RPR since hie hit 5. And that's logical. Lossie is now a 3rd season hurdler., an dis she really going to make another significant step forward. You usually see a horses abiity and can get a handle of it in their second season over hurdles or fences.

Honeysuckle has been mentioned here, and whilst she showed a little more improvement at the same racing stage of her career, she only topped her Hattons Grace run which was only her second run in open company by 5lbs at her very best. By comparison Lossie's best is still 5lbs behind that.

Essentially Lossie needs to improve by more than would be usual between a 2nd and 3rd season hurdling to be able to topple State Man. Either that or State Man needs to regress. The reality of that though is he's actually coming into his prime now, and there's been no sign of that whatsoever.

Then we have Constitution Hill. Nothing that has held him up is physical. Not pleasant of course, but nothing that would have any lasting effect on his ability. He also is coming up to his physical prime. For context his best RPR's (over course and distance), are 21lbs ahead of anything Lossie has done (not over course and distance), so he can be a stone off his best and still win with something in hand. And before someone throws out that Lossie is less exposed, Constitution Hill has actually had less runs than she has!

Sure we need to see him back and firing, but all the reports are very positive, and as I said he hasn't had anything that would affect his basic ability. I know people like to fall in love with mares, but I prefer to fall in love with returns, and Constitution Hill will be the reason that Lossie is money down the drain. She won't beat him because he's a class above, and as a consequence I suspect they'll go to the Mares as the only race they can win.

 

[Quevega]

The thing with Lossiemouth IMO is people talk about her having to improve, and on paper with the ratings folk then she clearly does.
But ratings are often a judgement of performance against opposition on any given day, with timings and visuals taken into account.

Are they accurate enough to show her true ability though ?
Especially when a horse does it so easily and wins with one ask ?

I personally don't think she has to improve to beat State Man at all.
Because I think her performances last season were clearly easy enough, not once was there any doubt she was the winner of all her races and she barely tested herself.
That's my opinion though from what I saw (and might be wrong), and I have not backed her for anything, but will back her when she runs against any serious opposition this year as long as the price is right.

From what most people on here are saying I'd expect her to be 2nd favourite to State Man if they meet, in which case I'll certainly be interested.
However, I have a feeling that the oddsmakers might have her favourite, and in that case I'll be looking at the price's for both.

 

[Lobos]

Have you placed ya hard earned cash on Lossie ?

Win Mares/Win CH and a lovely lucky roll up means over 100pt potential win. Very small stakes so in a good position with her.

 

[Lobos]

CH had a very unpleasant lung infection. Whilst that may not be a physical injury it can have a lasting effect if not treated quickly and correctly. He also then had a secondary issue thought initially to be colic which knocked him back again. Hendon has issued a positive report but he was also bullish before his disastrous racecourse gallop last season. Horses like all other animals have a natural instinct to disguise any issues in order to not appear vulnerable. Until we see CH on a racecourse again I'll reserve judgement as to what sort of form he is in and whether last seasons issues have had a lasting effect. Hopefully he'll return at his very best and back to the 'wow' factor of 23.