• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

King George - 2022

Did paddy mention something on that podcast this morning with Dave Ord?
 
There is a supplementary entry stage at 5 days. Interesting to see if Allaho's absence encourages anyone else.
 
Paul Nicholls must've been chuffed to bits when Allaho was ruled out of the race and now he's gonna end up against GDC. :very_drunk:
 
Looking at the long range forecast a Tornado is due to hit Kempton on Boxing Day. Was 25/1 a few weeks back. Now down to 7/1 so they must think there's a good chance the forecast is correct.
 
Galopin Des Champs cut into 9/4 with PP
 
Skelton said after the betfair that he won’t go to the king George. Lingfield or Cheltenham in January next up
 
I like Hitman for this, there are a few classier ones ahead of him in the betting but not guaranteed to turn up. He is improving and has some decent form in the book. His price has dropped from 20/1 - 10/1 over the last few weeks.
 
Dilinja said:
I like Hitman for this, there are a few classier ones ahead of him in the betting but not guaranteed to turn up. He is improving and has some decent form in the book. His price has dropped from 20/1 - 10/1 over the last few weeks.
Click to expand...

Form took a boost last week with Ga Law winning Gold Cup, then won today. I liked him double digits but now with GDC talk I wouldn't be as confident as low as 7s now!
 
Twitter: Mullins re KG for GDC "It's an entry, I dont seriously think it was a plan"
With APT blowing out this weekend, I feel Mullins will just just stick to the original plan that they had before Allaho was taken out. He knows, he has or will have others to have a good chance of willing the King George, but when it comes to the Gold Cup...

Very different tracks and disciplines, and I'm sure they will be keen to campaign GDC where he can optimise his potential that will suit the Gold Cup... not the King George. Thats unless we're looking at a Kauto Star here, a proper once in a life time horse - and its wayyyyy too early to be putting GDC near that bracket
 
Big Bucks said:
Form took a boost last week with Ga Law winning Gold Cup, then won today. I liked him double digits but now with GDC talk I wouldn't be as confident as low as 7s now!
Click to expand...

yep, pretty short now. Be a drifter on the day if a few in front of the market show up.
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
Latest thoughts on this

Bravemansgame - the form of this horse is more questionable than the horse's ability to grind out a win.
- Won 2 novice chases, getting weight
- Won the Kauto Star (normally a decent trial back in the day) against a horse that didnt go that day at that track
- Won a limited handicap, agaisnt a 143 horse. May be half decent as nichols wasnt firing during that period
- Ducked the Fez, bombed out at Aintree
- Then came back out and won the Charlie Hall, getting weight again. Eldorado Allen is a half decent benchmark, but I like some on here consider him a grade 2 horse

Hitman
- Mentioned in another post, I do like this horse and he was on the top of my shortlist at the start of this season
- Very 'Clan Des Obeaux', I like him, but... despite me thinking he'll enjoy the step up in trip, I just cant back a horse thats never ran 3 miles in the King George. Trends are there to be broken, but.... this is on negative for me, and I would have liked to have seen him run in the Betfair Chase - a great trial race for the KG
- The other negative, he's not been up against the Irish much, and when he did, he got beaten 5 lenghts by a horse that struggles to win in Ireland - Fakir D'Oudairies

L'Homme Presse
- Dont like the profile. Novice RSA winner thats never been to Kempton. Struggling to get prep run in. Williams out of form atm. Dont like the prize and connections have mentioned a number of times that the Gold Cup is their target.
- Yup, won the RSA but ran against some questionable novices. Up into Open company now... and yet to run in Open company. Just cant get on board with this one

Tornado Flyer
- I think he has a chance. Runs half decent over in Ireland, comes over here, first time in the KG wins pretty impressively
- Nice little prep race LTO, despite having to set his own factions which isnt his favoured style.
- Didnt turn up in the Gold Cup, fair enough. That trip to france looked like a wasted journey, but he showed some signs that he could run a decent race and try and retain his crown


Who I like.....

Eldorado Allen
- Big price, Joe thought he'd run a big race but he's already been out in the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chase, the latter appeared to be a better run.
- I want to see how revved up he was for the Charlie Hall, so will go back through Joe's comments. He mentioned he wanted to save him for one big race, I just hope he wasnt the Charlie Hall and Betfair... it could well have been
- I think he could place here at decent odds. He actually hits a lot of my key trends for his, from a GB horse perspective - ran at the festival (Ryanair starting to become a good starting point, grade 1 novice, ran in multiple grade 1's, 3 season chase, ran in Aintree Bowl, ran in the Betfair chase, won or ran well around Kempton)
- He'd be my main selection if Kempton comes up soft, he has plenty of noticeable form in good races over softer ground (Chase RPR over soft: 159, 161, 164, 166.
- Form at fez, 2nd in Arkle, 3rd in Ryanair. No, I aint comparing this guy to Cue Card, he was much much better, but this looks a weak King George, with whats lining up, its a Grade 2 field in a Grade 1 race

Envoi Allen
- I didnt like his chances at the start of last season, thought he beat nothing as a novice chaser, and I rubbished his 8th place (when fav) in the John Durkan, however, you that race is turning out to be extremely strong
- He's taken a while and a wind op to sort out. Tornado was similar, just couldnt make way in some high profile and competitive grade 1's over in Ireland
- This horse finished 8l back to Allaho in the John Durkan, and just behind Tornado Flyer who went on to win this by a noticeable distance - would have been shorter if Asterion Foronge didnt fall, another horse that ran in the John Durkan
- I lost all faith when he beat Battleoverdoyen, looked a boat... but then a step down in trip and 3rd in the QM and again in the Champion chase, 13 lenghts behind the likes of Energumene - proper a 170 horse. Chancun finished 6l ahead, another 170ish horse on his day (and in Ireland!!)
- Envoi then came out and beat a race fit Kemboy who is a decent benchmark. I think Conflated is a more than decent grade 1 horse, rated 168, and Galvin (he was off that day).
- Exposed at this trip, he was a really promising grade 1 horse as a novice hurdle, struggled to transition but he is at the right age and also has more than enough experience to run well in the KG

So... as it stands, I would have the following winning and placing

On quick ground (good to soft, soft), I'd have Envoi just beating out Eldorado Allen but he could be very close

1 and 2) Envoi Allen vs Eldorado Allen
3) Hitman
4) Tornado Flyer / Bravemansgame

On testing ground (soft, a bit of heavy in the description), I'd bin all of Nichols' (BMG jumping will be nullified and I doubt his heart to dig in deep, Hitman yet to run 3 miles never mind 3 miles in testing conditions), and also Envoi Allen (had breathing issues in the pace and trainer already raised concerns about soft ground). So, over soft/heavy... I'd be all over Eldorado Allen who has been outpaced a tad over better ground in really competitive races - I think he's a proper hardy horse and probably the most reliable to run a high 160 despite softer conditions

1) Eldorado Allen
2) Tornado Flyer
3) Envoi Allen
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: ComplyOrDie
Nice write up opatcho :encouragement:

Now, I'm going to give my views, and hoping to emulate last seasons 50/1 winner, Tornado Flyer, with a couple of bigger priced ones I fancy to go well. I'm very likely to repeat some reasons that Opatcho has noted above for avoiding certain horses, but here it goes.

Bravemansgame - Ultimately looks the most likely winner, but not at his current price, for me. He's got a little bit to prove still IMO, nothing more so than his ability to battle. Last years Kauto Star run at the track was very good, but I'm still not convinced by Ahoy Senor, and that's all he really had to beat that day.

Hitman - Never tried over 3m and a 4/1 shot for the race, no thanks. Sire isn't most well known for staying types over obstacles, so won't be worrying about him too much, at least not until he's proven it over the trip.

Galopin Des Champs - 'Just an entry' so ignoring until further notice.

Envoi Allen - I wouldn't be dead against him, though I think he beat a much under performing Galvin at Down Royal and an aging (much as he's been a great servant) Kemboy. Conflated likely needed the run too, IMO. Questions marks still for me. Would like to see him do it again, and if it's in the King George then so be it, but it won't be with my money behind him, especially not at 6/1.

L'Homme Presse - First time out this season and straight to the King George, I'd find unlikely, for a cautious enough trainer. Can ignore, for now. Also believe he prefers more of a test than Kempton.

Tornado Flyer - Owes me nothing after last season facile success in the race, and I do feel he's had a nice pipe opener and could come back and win it again. No obvious reason why he couldn't, IMO. He's only 8/1 now though. I am tempted to back him, but have held off.....for now.

Protektorat - Not sure where I read or heard something but unlikely to run pops up in the back of my mind. Maybe someone can confirm? Either way, he's only been to Kempton once, as a juvenile, and got absolutely hammered. Obviously he's a completely different proposition over fences and since maturing plenty, so I won't hold that singular run against him, but he's one of them horses I need to see back up his previous run. Last season he had one spectacular win and ran well in a couple of other races without winning. He is best price 20/1 which, again, is tempting, but for not knowing whether he will or will not turn up, I'll not be backing him.

Eldorado Allen - Two solid enough runs this season, and the disparity between him and Bravemansgame makes little sense to me. Yes, he was beat comfortably enough, but had to give him 3lbs all the way round. No such weight difference this time around. He's one I've been contemplating backing, and still might, but for now I've gone bigger.

Ahoy Senor - He continues to worry me with his jumping and his seasonal debut was far from inspiring. I'm not sure connections really believe he it would be a good idea to face Bravemansgame again under his suited conditions, so I can see him not turning up and is one I'm happy to leave well alone for the race, for now. If there was some 'Good' in the going description I might be tempted to have a small E/W play, but that would be it.

Frodon - Too old for this race now, IMO. Last horse to win aged double figures was Kauto Star, and Kauto Star he is not, though an admirable horse on his day and over the years, he's not for me.

Royale Pagaille - If it comes up heavy, then absolutely a chance, anything else and he's one I can leave alone.

Noble Yeats - I would be under the impression that the Grand National is the ultimate aim, and not sure they'd want to be getting too close to winning this and ruin them chances.

Millers Bank - Great horse for connections, but this is a big step up, not just for him, but for his trainer too. Fair play for having a crack, but think he's going to easily be outclassed. Ran once over 3m at Punchestown and got hammered, so can easily avoid.

Pic D'Orhy - Not sure he's at open Grade 1 level, also never been over 3m, but his sire has produced decent enough 3m chasers, so some cause for hope there.


My selections:

Maybe I'm hanging on to the fact that I managed to find Tornado Flyer last season, but I do feel the King George is yet again looking fairly weak, assuming they don't all turn up. So I'm going to have another crack at two big priced horses:

Franco De Port 66/1 E/W - On the bare face of it Kempton would probably not be his ideal track. He tends to get slightly outpaced and also has a tendency to jump less than fluently, however, his first run of this season was full of promise, facing race fit rivals when not able to reach the leaders and stable mates, Easy Game & Kemboy. He only went down by 3 3/4 lengths that day off of a 132 day break. That run was over 2m4f, the step up to 3m is likely to suit. He then went to Auteuil and ran a creditable enough race over 3m31/2f on heavy going. He's versatile enough when it comes to trip and I do think 3m at Kempton would suit him. His best run to date for me was in the Thyestes last season, where he finished 2nd to Longhouse Poet having to give 7lbs away to the winner. I think he's been primed for the King George, personally, and now it's just down to how good he can be. He's rated 157 in Ireland, so likely to be 160(ish) in the UK, so 4lbs to find on official ratings with the likes of Bravemansgame & Protektorat (should he run), so not a huge gap to fill. He'll do for me at a huge price.


Saint Calvados 100/1 E/W - Ran a blinder in the King George last season, first time out after a 323 day break, when travelling like the best horse in the race only to empty out, likely due to lack of fitness. This time around he's had a prep run, so imagine he'll strip fitter. You could argue it was a disappointing defeat on his seasonal debut this season, but he was giving 2lbs away to a race fit rival, in a tactical two horse race, hardly ideal. His final run of last season at Sandown was most impressive, over 2m61/2f when making all and scooting clear to win by 16 lengths. I have two wishes for Saint Calvados come the King George, firstly the ground is no worse than 'Soft' though ideally some 'Good' in it, and secondly, they let him have his head so he can lead. I really think he loves to lead. He's tried to be held up, including with his previous trainer, and I just think it ruins his natural flow as a race horse. If I get them two wishes and he under performs then so be it. He's run twice at Kempton, both times in the King George, and both times he has run with definite credit, finishing 3rd last season and 4th the season before. It would be some story for David Maxwell to win the King George too. I think 100/1 is insulting, and I'm more than happy to chuck a few quid at it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
Just to note that this race has a supplementary entry stage at 5 days. With the original strong favourite ruled out there has to be a chance that someone will take up that option.
 
archie said:
Just to note that this race has a supplementary entry stage at 5 days. With the original strong favourite ruled out there has to be a chance that someone will take up that option.
Click to expand...

Who we saying Archie? :boxing:
 
  • Like
Reactions: opatcho
Some of us would be happy to let Kemboy have a go at a race that should suit and a lot can happen in 4 weeks. However, there's no sign that Willie thinks the same and, as usual, he's been entered for the Savills.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom