Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

[Kotkijet]

Kolisi bg David Pipe f7-1-4 (85) 90 j2-0-0 (-) 0 0
Harzand (Footstepsinthesand){4-o}(0.75) 2/1 Shubaat 1st 3m Handicap Hurdle (130), Southwell 2014
Expectations were presumably high for Kolisi, who made his debut for David Pipe in the Grade 2 Summit Hurdle having fetched 55,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Gelded before seeing the racecourse for William Haggas, Kolisi stepped up on his Ripon debut in April with a good second at Nottingham the following month before getting off the mark in a soft ground, ten furlong Salisbury maiden in June. Tracking the leaders from the outset, he was moved into the clear at the distance whereafter he was pushed out to win cosily by just over two lengths. His rating of 87 seemed to be at the absolute limit of his performances to date and he was unable to run to his mark on his next three outings; hanging left and racing keenly in the process. However, dropped to 84 and with blinkers applied for the first time, Kolisi ran a career best when last seen in a ten furlong Doncaster handicap on soft ground. Though still taking a hold and looking rather suspect under pressure, Kolisi was eventually able to put up a strong challenge in the final furlong, getting to within a head of stablemate Titian at the line. Incidentally, Titian remains his stablemate having changed hands for 155,000 guineas at the same sale. Juvenile hurdlers formerly trained by William Haggas have a respectable winner to runner rate of 32.35% and their improvement rate of 41.3% is just above average. Best amongst these former inmates include Bedrock and Swnymor who each cost 70,000 guineas, again at the same sale. The only previous juvenile to move from Somerville Lodge to Pond House was Royal Rationale who won one from six during the 2007/08 campaign. David Pipe's record in the sphere is a strong one with a 39.10% winner to runner rate and Kolisi's pedigree is also creditable as the first runner over hurdles for the dual Derby winning Harzand. A son of Sea The Stars, cousin of numerous winning jumpers (including useful juveniles Handazan and Hazariban) and measuring at 16.1hh, Harzand has the credentials to make a sire of jumpers. Kolisi is also a nephew of useful winning hurdler Shubaat and is related 3/2 with Miss Heritage and 5/4 with Well Chief. However, Kolisi's two hurdling performances to date have been quite disconcerting. An unfancied 25/1 shot at Doncaster, Kolisi raced keenly for much of the race and faded from his prominent position on turning for home. He was beginning to labour in last place when completely missing the penultimate flight, blundering badly and pulling up immediately. Reappearing later in the month at Kempton, he started at 33/1 and was keen once again while held up in the rear before getting detached at the far side and pulling up before reaching the straight. His hurdling was not bad, but he never travelled with any purpose and while his overall profile is one of an interesting recruit, he needs to put his two efforts last month firmly behind him.

Mind Hunter bg Bernard Llewellyn f4-0-1 (73) 77 j2-0-0 (-) 82 94
Gleneagles (Oasis Dream){1-l}(0.50) 4/1 King In Waiting 2nd Prelude Handicap Hurdle (128), Market Rasen 2011
Bernard Llewellyn has a solid winner to runner rate of 20.69% in the sphere despite acquiring most of his recruits for four digit sums. Mind Hunter, who finished a pound second in a Lingfield maiden to a now 86 rated filly, left Richard Hannon at the Tattersalls August Sale for 26,000 guineas; the most his new handler has spent on a juvenile. However, he failed to match that form in two races on the flat for the Llewellyn team, beaten upwards of a dozen lengths at Chester and Wolverhampton during the autumn. Sire Gleneagles has a fair 18.18% winner to runner rate in the sphere, but damsire Oasis Dream has significantly lower figures and one has to go to the fourth dam before finding winning jumpers. An easy 40/1 shot for his hurdling debut in a decent Newbury contest in mid-December, Mind Hunter raced in midfield and jumped left (not right as reported) on occasions. He lost his position once reaching the straight and jumped slowly before finishing well beaten. Reappearing at Taunton a fortnight later, Mind Hunter attracted nibbles of support in the ring, albeit still starting at 50/1 having been 80/1 at one point. Racing in the rear, he was badly baulked at the first and would never really travel with any purpose save for passing some beaten horses ahead of finishing a twenty-six length sixth. Mind Hunter is not devoid of ability or promise, but will likely be seen to better effect once handicapping.

Angels Landing bf Ian Williams f6-1-3 (71) 76 j3-0-2 (97) 91 97
Fascinating Rock (Pivotal){7-a}(1.77) 5/3 Binocular 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Having failed to make the track for Richard Fahey, Angels Landing started her career with Ian Williams in mid-June, running consistently and placing three times on her first five outings before getting off the mark in an eleven furlong Kempton handicap in October off 67. Representing the first crop of Fascinating Rock, but with a threadbare damline, Angels Landing started 5/2 joint favourite on her hurdling debut at Ludlow early the following month. Held up in touch and jumping abysmally, she was one paced in the straight before finishing a near five length third of seven. Her next outing came in a fillies' juvenile at Leicester where she was warmly fancied 13/8 favourite. Tracking the leaders, she was still given to novicey errors but there was a definite improvement in her hurdling. Always close up, she went into a narrow lead on the approach to two out and though readily beaten by the winner, she plugged on well enough to finish two and three quarter lengths clear of the remainder. This marked a step up on her debut, although the form was nothing out of the ordinary and her venture into pattern company next time at Aintree amounted to little. Starting at 33/1 having opened at 12/1 in the morning, Angels Landing raced in the rear and her short lived effort at the cross section was over by the time they reached the straight and she was pulled up before jumping two out. Apart from jumping to her right early on, and reaching at the sixth, Angels Landing did hurdle respectably and can perhaps be forgiven the performance due to the very testing conditions. The best of her form leaves her with a fair, though not insurmountable few pounds to find and the return to Ludlow could be in her favour.

tl;dr
Illico des Places - Looked promising when making winning debut in French provinces and form is respectable in context of this race. Was too fresh for his own good at Kempton but may do better for stripping fitter and having freshness ran out of him. Might get easy lead which is invaluable at Ludlow.

Appreciate - Ultimately disappointing maiden on flat and jumped left throughout on hurdling debut at Fontwell over Christmas.

Bryanwood - Fair but inconsistent maiden on flat and very little encouragement from two hurdles runs to date.

Dragon's Fire - Fairly useful winner on flat even if stamina looked questionable at times. Shaped like a non-stayer on hurdling debut at Kempton and will need to develop before he can be competitive in sphere.

Dr T J Eckleburg - Progressive and consistent on the flat and brings best hurdling form to the race courtesy of debut second at Newbury last month. Scope for further improvement and yard a positive. Should go well but possibility he could be at tactical disadvantage.

Fight For It - Lightly raced but reasonable maiden form during late spring/early summer. Not unfeasibly bred but shaped like more a long term project when last at Kempton.

Imperial Sun - Good form for John Gosden in context of this race, joins a capable yard and likeable pedigree. Ex-Gosdens don't always carry form and yard's juveniles typically improve for experience.

Kolisi - Best flat form in the field, very feasible pedigree and has joined a strong yard. However, both hurdles runs to date have ended with him being pulled up so plenty to prove at this juncture.

Mind Hunter - Lightly raced maiden for Richard Hannon and though two hurdles runs not devoid of promise, will be more competitive once handicapping.

Angels Landing - Progressive on flat, winning latest start in that sphere. Jumping has improved with each run and though pulled up last time, return to Ludlow should suit. Bit to find on form but should not be disgraced.

Strong prospects
1. Illico des Places
Reasonable prospects
2. Dr T J Eckleburg
Feasible prospects
3. Angels Landing
4. Imperial Sun
Moderate prospects
5. Kolisi
6. Mind Hunter
Negligible prospects
7. Bryanwood
8. Appreciate
9. Fight For It
10. Dragon's Fire

 

[Eggs]

….excellent stuff. Do you have any strong thoughts or see any value in the Triumph market?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

….excellent stuff. Do you have any strong thoughts or see any value in the Triumph market?

I asked a similar question a week or so back Eggs and Kotkijet said there were still several potential nice ones that hadn't been out yet so he was holding off doing a kind of pre Triumph preview, will be fascinating reading when it's up though....

 

[Lobos]

I asked a similar question a week or so back Eggs and Kotkijet said there were still several potential nice ones that hadn't been out yet so he was holding off doing a kind of pre Triumph preview, will be fascinating reading when it's up though....

I know he's very keen on Knights Salute so it'll be interesting how he rates him in comparison to the Irish juveniles.

 

[Kotkijet]

Hello all.

Yes, I have done a little piece on those yet to appear which can be found here.

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1478851046353035272

Have done the profiles for Rubaud and Got Glory. They will be going on the next update but since I have them to hand already;-

Rubaud bg Paul Nicholls f8-1-0 (44,5-97.9) 97
Air Chief Marshal (Cardoun){10-e}(3.00) 1/1 Francin 1st 2m6?f Novice Hurdle, Navan 2020
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/rubaud
Since 2004/05, Paul Nicholls has taken charge of thirty-six juvenile hurdlers who ran on the flat in France with twenty-two winning during their initial campaigns. Both of these figures are the highest of any British or Irish trainer, and the winner to runner rate of 61.11% is bettered only by Nicky Henderson and Lucy Wadham for those with five or more such horses. Zarkandar, All Yours and Pierrot Lunaire are the highest earners in this class of Paul Nicholls juveniles and another such interesting recruit could be Rubaud. Formerly with Philippe Decouz, whose two exports to date are promising French Aseel and Vauban, Rubaud made a fairly low key start to his career. His two year-old campaign consisted of a pair of midfield finishes at Lyon Parilly and Angers before a spring return saw him register a couple of fourth place finishes in reasonable company back at the former course. Stepping up to 3000m, some 600m further than he had hitherto competed, Rubaud got off the mark at the sixth attempt in a Saint-Cloud maiden on good to soft ground in July. Racing keenly while held up in touch, Rubaud was asked for his effort at the distance and having hit the front with a furlong to go, was ridden out before being eased very close home to win by three quarters of a length. The form is respectably enough with the runner-up being a dual subsequent winner rated in the high seventies, and fourth placed One More Light winning on the flat before landing a valuable newcomers hurdle at Auteuil. Rubaud was next seen stepping up in grade for a Groupe III contest at Longchamp two months later where, having been help up in rear, had every chance as the race unfolded but found himself comfortably outpaced. Nevertheless, he was not disgraced in finishing less than five lengths behind the winner and the runner-up franked the form when finishing a close third in a Groupe II on Arc weekend. Though dropped down to listed company on his final French outing, it was still a competitive enough race for Rubaud to be sent off at 11/1. While the trip was 200m shorter, and Rubaud was held up for much of the contest, he struggled on the softer ground, weakening in the closing stages to finish a ten length seventh. His valeur of 44.5 is only justifiable on his Longchamp effort, but it still exceeds the one set by full-his brother Francin who won a couple of novice hurdles for Willie Mullins in 2020. Rubaud is also a nephew of winning hurdlers Hot Chili Peper and Favourite Son. Sire Air Chief Marshall has a strong 36.67% winner to runner rate with French three-year-old jumpers as well as being two from four in Britain with stablemate Viroflay being one of those winners last term. Overall, while he may be a little flattered by his high flat rating, there is still plenty to like about Rubaud’s profile given he has joined a strong yard, is bred for the game and comes with assured stamina.

Got Glory bf Willie Mullins Audrey Turley (not JP McManus) f1-1-0 (-) -
Great Pretender (Fasliyev){16-a}(1.43) 0.5 Got Away 1st Charnwood Forest Mares' Chase (L), Leicester 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/got-glory
In late June 2020, a fillies’ debutants contest at Clairefontaine was held. The winner, Valia, went on to finish second in the Prix Royal-Oak while down the field, Trapista and Raffles Gitane would each win over hurdles after being exported across la manche. Last year’s winner, Got Glory, has eschewed the possibility of classic glory for a jumps career with Willie Mullins; whose seven ex-French flat fillies count four winners including two who would score at the highest level in Petite Parisienne and Burning Victory. Starting at 10/1 for the contest held over 2400m on very soft ground, Got Glory was keen in the early stages before tucking in just behind the leader. In the vanguard turning into the straight, she carried her head awkwardly under pressure and would only get on top inside the final furlong, but was ultimately a decisive winner by two lengths, then a length and a half, with the front three seven lengths clear of the remainder. The form is taking a credible shape with the second and third each breaking their ducks over their next two outings, earning valeurs of 36.0 (79.2) in the process. The winning time is also carries substance with the race being completed some five seconds quicker than the corresponding colts and geldings contest and Got Glory recording the highest speed of any horse who raced over 2400m that day. Her pedigree is quite a commendable one for the game as while the offspring of Great Pretender generally improve with age, six of his eight juveniles exported to Britain and Ireland won during their initial campaigns with the other two already winning over hurdles back in France. Half-sister Got Away won twice over hurdles at three, won an Auteuil chase at four, landed a listed mares’ chase at five and finished second in a Grade Two handicap at Cheltenham the following year. Though potentially one for the longer term, Got Glory still ticks the right boxes for class, breeding, stamina and trainer and should make a decent impact on the scene this term.

Planning on posting a more substantial update early next week but no promises.

As for overview on what we have seen thus far, seeing as every man and his dog will already have opinions on most of the contenders that have raced in Britain and Ireland, and time is a finite resource, my preference would be to do content on the less conspicuous juveniles. I might try to do something after the Triumph entries are released, but that bridge will be crossed when it is reached.

In the meantime, there is a cracking renewal of the Chatteris Fen...

Huntingdon (Chatteris Fen) – 14th January – Preview
Huntingdon’s Chatteris Fen Juvenile Hurdle is firmly entrenched as a named contest on the calendar without ever holding pattern status. Rather boringly, it was only established in 1987 and instead of some obscure 1890s horse who landed sixty races during a single campaign as a four-year-old; including the Stewards Cup, the Ebor and a four-mile selling chase at Catterick – all while holding down a full-time job carting barrels around at the local brewery, the race is just named after some place in Cambridgeshire. Lack of romance notwithstanding, the Chatteris Fen has still been contested by some very useful sorts with its first three renewals setting an unassailable standard for future runnings. Aldino led home Nos Na Gaoithe, Celtic Chief and Osric in 1987, Kribensis and Young Snugfit filled the first two placings the following year while Royal Derbi was the outsider of three when winning in 1989. The nineties were rather more subdued but the race was still won by likeable sorts such as Royal Square, Cornwall Prince, Salwan, Kadi, Clifton Beat and The French Furze. Afsoun, Giocomo, Vol Solitaire, Songe and Zamdy Man were the best representatives following the dawn of the new millennium, while since the race was moved to January in 2016, Sceau Royal, Gumball and Master Blueyes have maintained the race’s reputation. Nothing in this year’s edition is in the hunt for Triumph Hurdle favouritism although with three graduates going on to finish second in the Fred Winter (namely At Your Request, Divin Bere and Style de Garde), the race could be seen as a fair trial for that level and it would be no surprise were a couple of these to take in that festival handicap. The line-up features four winners, two undefeated in Britain, with the field completed by the two highest rated flat horses in the field who each finished runner-up on their sole hurdles outings.

A flat, right-handed circuit with easy turns, Huntingdon’s average winning DIs vary quite wildly between 1.13 median (close to standard) and 1.57 mean (quite high). Capped at 4.00, the mean figures are lower than average which, when accounting for softer ground, is especially pertinent in this particular contest where the average winning DI is just 0.85. The clear round and completion rates of 96.36% and 86.84% are very ordinary although the Chatteris Fen has had a wide array of betting results with five from seven odds-on favourites obliging alongside four other winners at double figure prices since 2004. Though only six runners are set to face the starter, a couple of these have made the running during the past and while a breakneck gallop is not expected, the pace should be an honest one. The going is currently described as soft with little to no rain anticipated before post time.

Triumph Odds
Kotmask 50/1
Parliament Hill 50/1

Collingham bg Donald McCain f13-3-4 (33,0-72.6) 82 j3-1-2 (117) 116 121
Samum (Mull of Kintyre){6-d}(0.78) 0.5 Chez Hans 1st 2m2?f Handicap Hurdle (131), Newton Abbot 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/collingham
Juvenile hurdlers bought out of French flat claimers have solid winner to runner rate of 22.81% which increases to 32% when the horse won its claimer. Adagio and Noble Request are two notable examples, although few will develop into much above average. Nevertheless, Donald McCain’s first juvenile to come out of a French claimer, Collingham, has made a promising start to his hurdling career. Initially with Christian von der Recke, Collingham first racecourse appearance came in a Compiegne claimer last October where he won by three lengths, and was claimed afterwards for €30,009 to join Fabrice Vermeulen. Runner-up on his remaining three outings at two, he began 2021 with a valeur of 39 (85.8 BHA) but his poor runs outnumbered his good and that mark would drop six kilos in the run-up to July. That month saw him dropped into a modest Aix-les-Bains claimer over 2500m on soft ground. Held up in midfield, he was outpaced on the turn for home but though he made a meal of going through the gears, he was able to hit the front 100m out and regain the winning thread by a length. His final start in France came in a slightly better claimer at Clairefontaine in similar conditions. Here, he found it easier to stay in contention and after getting to the lead 300m out, would run on strongly to win by two and a half lengths. Changing hands for €17,800, he embarked on a British hurdling career which was certainly feasible on breeding. Samum has a solid record with juveniles in Britain and France while the dam has already produced two winning jumpers in Chandos Belle and Chez Harris; the former incidentally taking the Von Der Recke, French claiming route to the division, but failing to win for Paul Nicholls before eventually becoming quite useful. Collingham made his hurdling debut at Musselburgh in early November and was well supported in the ring getting backed into 8/11 from an opening 6/5. Initially prominent in a decently run race, he was restrained during the back stretch and began the home straight with a couple of lengths to find. He jumped two out with a share of the lead but as at Aix-les-Bains, he was not immediate in quickening. Nevertheless, the penny did drop after the last and he pulled ahead towards the line for a five length win. His jumping was a little untidy at times but few of his errors cost him any real momentum. The form was respectable without being much better than average, and a sterner examination was given back at the venue some four weeks ago. He was sent off a steady 3/1 behind the odds-on Skycutter who was soon in a very clear lead. Collingham led the pursuit and though there was still well over a dozen lengths between the two entering the straight, that gap had been reduced to a length by the furlong pole. However, the effort to close the gap, where he completed the penultimate furlong over a second quicker than the winner, proved telling with the pair finishing almost a distance clear of the remainder. Skycutter did not advertise the form in the Finale although he enjoyed nothing like the gift he received here. Collingham’s third outing came at Musselburgh on New Year’s Day and he started the 85/40 second favourite of six. Initially in a prominent position, he allowed the leader to get away from him by the time they reached the back. Though he made considerable ground rounding the home turn and was trading as low as 1.11 when looming menacingly when approaching the penultimate flight. However, the uneven energy expense once again proved his undoing and he ended up losing the battle for second on the run in. Other than being close at the third and tiring late on, Collingham’s jumping was satisfactory overall. Although the runner-up was a 50/1 outsider, the form is still respectable and even a critical comparison of the time recorded against the 0-150 handicap on the card paints the juveniles in a positive light. Though dropped six pounds to 117, Collingham’s form is still the strongest in this contest and his defeats come with mitigating factors. The softer ground and more even tempo should play to his strengths and as the chosen representative of his in-form yard’s two entries for this race, Collingham sets a solid standard for his rivals here; even if most are promising and scopey sorts.

Genuflex bg Milton Harris f11-1-5 (74) 79 j4-1-2 (113) 104 114
Holy Roman Emperor (Galileo){1-i}(1.13) 0.5 Gendarme 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (88), Limerick 2021
A winner on the flat for Richard Hannon, Genuflex earned his initial victory at the third time of asking in a Windsor nursery off 74 last August. Though he failed to supplement this success in eight further attempts, Genuflex did run to form over ten furlongs during the spring and summer including on his latest outing in that sphere when showing good tenacity but failing to make all in a Nottingham classified stakes. He subsequently joined the capable Milton Harris for 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. By a Holy Roman Emperor who wins his fair share, and being a half-brother to a winning handicap hurdler, there was every chance he could build his profile over hurdles. He was well backed to do so on his stable/hurdling debut at Ludlow early in October and only subsequent Huntingdon winner, Mister Allegro, prevented his landing the 20/1 come 5/1 plunge. Though occasionally tight at his hurdles, Genuflex posted an efficient round of jumping overall and travelled well in midfield for much of the contest. In contention turning for home, he found himself outpaced between the last two and was slow getting away from the final flight. Nevertheless, he plugged on along the run-in to snatch second in the final strides with subsequent improver Saint Riquier another four lengths behind. Entering calmer waters at Sedgefield eleven days later, Genuflex’s profile saw him sent off a worthy 4/11 favourite. Making his own running from the outset, he raced keenly while setting a modest tempo. Though he hit the top of the third, rather missed the sixth and ran down the penultimate flight, his jumping was neat enough overall. Genuflex entered the straight half a dozen lengths clear of his rivals and after being shaken up away from two out, was in cruise control for the rest of the race; crossing the line seventeen lengths clear of the remainder. Stepping up to Listed company for Wetherby’s Wensleydale Hurdle, Genuflex appeared to be quite overfaced, although he was supported in the ring from 14/1 into 10/1 at the off. Held up in the rear off a quite modest gallop, he still had only one behind turning for home. It was a tightly packed bunch however and was able to follow the increased pace in the straight, jumping the last within a length of leader Porticello. Though he was no match for the ultimately comfortable winner, he did get the better of a battle for second in the final strides. This marked a new career high, exceeding the best of his flat efforts in the process. A two month rest was broken by a lofty engagement in Chepstow’s Finale Hurdle over Christmas. Available at 20/1 in the morning, Genuflex drifted to a more realistic 50/1 at the off and ran accordingly; jumping without confidence and failing to get into contention from the rear before finishing a tailed off last. This return to calmer waters will suit and with his yard’s last venture to a racecourse resulting in a double, a respectable effort would not be unexpected. Nevertheless, Genuflex would still have a few pounds to find in this company and with less scope for improvement and a possible preference for a faster surface, there will probably be more appropriate targets in the future.

Kotmask chg Gary Moore j2-1-0 (-) 109 113
Masked Marvel (Martaline){20-a}(0.38) 0.5 Kapkiline 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1), Auteuil 2018
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/kotmask
Arriving to these shores as something of an unknown quantity, Kotmask had just the one run to his name which came in an ordinary contest at Dieppe in mid June. Sent off at 11/1 in an eleven runner contest, he went straight to the front and was taking quite a pull, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. His jumping was marked by inexperience as he was often steady on the approach and untidy at numerous obstacles. Kotmask was still in contention turning for home, but ultimately found four of his rivals too strong and was beaten by just under thirteen lengths. The remainder of the field were upwards of twenty lengths behind and although pattern class form has not emerged from this Dieppe outing, the first four have held their own in quite valuable conditions contests and count winners at Compiegne and Pau amongst themselves. The five exports of Gabriel Leenders last term included three winners as well as the Triumph and Punchestown placed Haut En Couleurs. Sire Masked Marvel does respectably with his three-year-old hurdlers in France, among whom is another Leenders export in Teahupoo. With a name like Kotmask, the damline is predictably inundated with talented French jumpers and a brief role call of nearby relatives includes half-sister Kapkiline, Kobrouk (2/1) Katgary (2/1), Kotkieglote (3/1), Katenko (3/1), Kotky West (3/1), with Kotkijet coming out of the fifth dam. His British debut came early last month where he was well supported on course; backed from an opening 11/2 to 7/2 at the off. While fairly keen early on and pecking badly at the first, that was his only real error in the contest and he soon settled well enough to be prominent in the main body behind the clear leader. Part of a two pronged pursuit during the second circuit, he joined the pacesetter leaving the back and after a better jump at the last gave him the lead, Kotmask was pushed clear on the run-in for a twelve length success. While it was not the strongest contest held at Fontwell, the form is solid enough for the level with the runner-up placing second in a handicap next time and the third maintaining his form on the flat. The performance leaves Kotmask with the least to find with Collingham and with further improvement likely for his in-form yard, he should give the aforementioned plenty to think about.

 

[Kotkijet]

Lifetime Legend bg Neil King f11-0-4 (74) 83 j1-0-1 (123) 89 95
Pride Of Dubai (Galileo){5-h}(0.60) 3/1 First Mohican 4th Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2014
Andrew Oliver has supplied thirty-seven juvenile hurdlers to the division since 2006 and while Mega Fortune and Dodging Bullets were very talented sorts, their overall winner to runner rate is only fair at 18.92%. The most expensive of these to sell at auction was Lifetime Legend, who changed hands at Tattersalls for 55,000 guineas in the Autumn. Though a maiden after eleven starts, Lifetime Legend was capable of some fairly useful form on the flat. After finishing second at Galway in September 2020, he bit off a little more than he could chew at pattern level, but returned in the spring with a respectable third of thirteen at Cork in a ten furlong maiden. His next few outings were no better than fair but after a summer break, he began to reach his best form. Finishing fourth of fifteen in a Galway handicap over an extended mile, he was gelded before placing third in a Killarney handicap off 73 over eleven furlongs on soft, despite pulling hard early on. He filled the same position in a Leopardstown maiden a fortnight later where he looked one paced over ten furlongs on good ground. His tenure with Andrew Oliver ended with a tame effort at Navan and after his trip to Newmarket, would join a Neil King yard with respectable figures in the sphere; namely a winner to runner rate of 30.61% and an improvement rate of 54.05%. Lifetime Legend is a representative of sire Pride Of Dubai’s first crop of hurdlers. Being a precocious two-year-old from the Machiavellian line as well as being a cousin of Invincible Spirit, Pride Of Dubai does not have especially compelling credentials for the discipline. There is a little promise on the damline, however, as the third dam was responsible for First Mohican and The Price while the Munster National winner Star Clipper appears further back at 4/3. Lifetime Legend’s hurdling bow came at Wetherby over Christmas and he was the subject of strong support throughout the day, moving from 11/1 to 3/1 before going out slightly to 4/1 at the off. Settling in mid-division, his round was littered with novicey errors as well as a tendency to jump to his left. He turned for home just behind the leaders and though unable to reach the winner, stayed on to split the first and third by a length and three quarters apiece. A strict collateral reading of the form marks the performance as a respectable one. However, the sectionals from that contest were atrocious and the winner was well beaten in moderate company next time out. Lifetime Legend is entitled to improve for the experience but he has the most to find in this field on hurdling form and his jumping left handed will not held him around Huntingdon. Though not shown on the BHA site, an official rating of 123 is being reported which, if true, would make him one of the worst handicapped juveniles in training.

Parliament Hill chg Olly Murphy f4-0-0 (69) 77 j1-1-0 (-) 119 109
Sir Percy (Shamardal){7-a}(0.82) 2/1 Rainbow Dreamer 2nd Finesse Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2017
Lightly raced on the flat in Ireland, Parliament Hill was gelded after his sole outing at two and during three outings in the spring, would twice place fifth in maidens at Tipperary and Navan; either side of a down the field finish at Leopardstown. An optimistic interpretation of his form would deem his official mark of 69 as somewhat generous, and though perhaps lacking a turn of foot, he appeared to race honestly enough. Juveniles formerly trained by John Joseph Murphy have a solid enough record in the sphere and new trainer Olly Murphy is also adept at preparing young hurdlers. The pedigree is also a useful one for the division as sire Sir Percy has a strong winners to runner rate of 31.82%, uncle Rainbow Dreamer was a useful juvenile and along with Warrsan, Needle Gun and Luso, the damline also includes dual winner Dalaki (3/1) and the top class Nichols Canyon (4/3). Parliament Hill was introduced to hurdles at Leicester in late November where he was supported during the morning from 4/1 to 13/8 before starting the race half a point higher. Keen in the early stages, he was eventually settled and tracking the leaders on the outer. Leading on the bridle three from home, he was asked for his effort approaching the last before running out a cosy five-and-a-half length winner. Parliament Hill looked inexperienced at times after clipping and skewing at the first and stumbling slightly at the fifth, was awkward over the last two while under pressure. Notwithstanding, he won nicely in the end and though the bare form is nothing special, he would have the most scope for improvement in this line-up and represents yard enjoying a good spell of form.

Rewired chg Dr Richard Newland f11-2-3 (78) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 106 106
Power (Montjeu){1-n}(0.54) 0.5 Keen Move 2nd Premio Criterium d’Inverno Hurdle (G2,4yH, Pisa 2016
Dr Richard Newland has some of the nicer figures in the juvenile hurdling division with his winner to runner rate of 40.91% in the top ten for trainers with twenty or more horses, and his record of eighty-one juveniles without a fall or unseat being second only to Oliver Greenall. His sole runner in the sphere this term has been Rewired, who came from David Menuisier with two wins and a rating of 78 to his name. Shaping well enough on his debut at Newbury in September 2020, he was off the mark next time when coming out on top of a blanket finish at Lingfield before consolidating his ability with a very narrow second in a ten furlong Newmarket nursery on heavy ground off 69. It took a couple of outings to shake off the cobwebs in the spring but was better than the result at Sandown on Eclipse day when fifth off 72 having met trouble in running. Compensation was gained at Esher a month later when making sure of a prominent position in a seven runner field, going for home at the distance and having enough to repel the runner-up’s late lunge by a neck. Raised seven pounds, Rewired finished last next time at Newcastle and though a return to Sandown saw him finish a two length fourth, too much was made of him at Chester in October. His final flat outing was a creditable one at Doncaster in first-time cheekpieces when Ryan Moore was rather too patient on his mount who was nearest at the finish but could only reach second place at the line. Fetching 45,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Rewired was to embark on a new career for which he is feasibly bred. He is from the fifth crop of Power who has five winners from fifteen in the division while boasting a most promising improvement rate of 88.89%. His half-brothers Keen Move and Grey Mist each produced respectable jumps form as youngsters, the third dam had a couple of minor winners and the likes of Mariah Rollins (4/4), Pendra and Mercian King (4/5) appear further back on the damline. Rewired made his hurdling debut in a warm looking contest at Kempton eighteen days ago where he started at 5/1 having opened at twice that price in the morning. Held up towards the rear of midfield, he began to make headway on the far side but while he went into second approaching the penultimate flight, the winner had already flown; leaving Rewired seventeen lengths in his wake at the winning post. Rather awkward over the first three flights, Rewired hurdled better as the race progressed and though well beaten by the impressive winner, he still finished twelve and thirty lengths clear of the next two. Rewired is another recruit with a likeable profile who showed plenty of scope on his hurdling debut and represents an in-form stable. The bare form of his Kempton debut leaves him with a little to find and his propensity on the flat to follow a good outing with a modest one is a concern, but a strong showing in this contest can not be dismissed.

tl;dr
Cottingham – Three times a winner on the flat in France, the latest being a Clairefontaine claimer. Landed the odds when making a winning British/Hurdling debut at Musselburgh in November and two subsequent defeats at that venue are better than they appear at face value. Form in the book sets the standard and ground and likely pace could play to his strengths.

Genuflex – Fairly useful on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise with wide margin win at Sedgefield. Ran to a new career best when second in Wensleydale Hurdle but ran no sort of race in Finale over Christmas. Will appreciate drop in class but is most exposed and may prefer quicker ground.

Kotmask – Regally bred insofar as French jumpers are concerned and debut at Dieppe for Gabriel Leenders was not without promise. Emphatic winner at Fontwell on sole start for new trainer and form is probably strongest of those behind Collingham. Conditions should suit, yard in-form and improvement can be expected.

Lifetime Legend – Eleven race maiden on flat but some reasonable form for Andrew Oliver. Patchy pedigree but well supported when second on jumps introduction at Wetherby. Bare form looks reasonable but sectionals were very poor and form has since been let down by winner. Entitled to improve but most to find.

Parliament Hill – Lightly raced maiden in Ireland but mark of 69 probably underestimates his ability. Nice pedigree for the division and well supported for hurdling debut at Leicester in November. Patently inexperience but still a very ready winner and though bare form nothing special, probably has most scope for improvement in this line-up.

Rewired – Dual winner on flat and brings highest rating from that sphere. Appropriately bred and joins good yard for juveniles. Put in his place but clear of rest on hurdles bow at Kempton. Plenty of scope and yard in form but could be inconsistent on flat.

Strong prospects
1. Collingham
Reasonable prospects
2. Kotmask
3. Parliament Hill
4. Rewired
Feasible prospects
5. Genuflex
Moderate prospects
6. Lifetime Legend

 

[Kotkijet]

Hopefully, the amusing bit in the introduction about the "Chatteris Fen" who lived in my imagination was enough to offset the frustration of watching the underestimated Collingham get gubbed in the real Chatteris Fen by the biggest danger by a head. If not, let's see if the Kempton preview is any better...

Kempton – 15th January – Preview
The first juvenile hurdle to appear on the Lanzarote Hurdle card came in 2002. Curiously, the fourth placed finisher from the first three editions emerged as the most accomplished graduate. Rigmarole would win a Bula and a Kingwell, Spectroscope won the Triumph and placed at Aintree and Punchestown while Cherub finished fourth in the Triumph before winning at Punchestown. Since then, the beaten horses have done no better than being also-rans at the Festival although five winners did return to place in the Adonis the following month (L’Unique would also win the Anniversary while Sadler’s Risk finished third at Liverpool), and Redicean landed the double in 2018. This years edition probably won’t be the worst running of the race; that honour goes to the 2016 renewal where the only subsequent wins came in handicaps off 99 and 80. Nevertheless, while good yards are represented and the only flat maiden was rated 80 at one point, the overall profile of the contest is not particularly substantial given that all of the runners have questions to answer. Though a flat, and fair, right-handed circuit, Kempton’s winning DIs of 1.04 median, 1.25 mean are lower than average. However, while it can get testing, these figures would likely be more indicative of the quality of runner than it being a particularly demanding circuit; especially as the figures for this particular contest are 1.15 median, 1.35 mean. Both the clear round and completion rates of 96.97% and 89.10% are kinder than average. Kempton is also a fair course for introducing a juvenile, ranking seventh in the country for comparative strike rate, and second for comparative clear rounds. Furthermore, Kempton also ranks highly for the success of odds-on favourites as well as having low average starting prices, indicating that outcomes at the venue are generally rational. Just the five are set to face the starter and though a couple have made the running in the past, they did so under sufferance. As such, unless something takes the initiative, a steady tempo would not be unexpected. The latest going description was soft, good to soft in places, with little to no rain forecast before post time.

Cuban Cigar bg Richard Hannon f25-2-7 (68) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 85 79
Havana Gold (Green Desert){16-b}(1.15) 3/1 Poirot PU Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2005
Richard Hannon Snr saddled Right Win, Gran Alba and Lift And Load to win graded races over hurdles, but his last six juvenile hurdlers failed to win anything and the family tradition has been revived by junior with Cuban Cigar. A veteran of twenty-four flat outings prior to his hurdling debut at Leicester, Cuban Cigar was a largely consistent mid sixties/mid seventies performer and picked up a couple of races on the all-weather. Breaking his duck on his eleventh outing in a seven furlong Kempton handicap off 66 at the end of March, he doubled his tally nine races and twenty-one weeks later at Wolverhampton over an extended nine furlongs off a pound higher. His flat career showed him to be patently tough, consistent and mostly honest, with stamina limitations and a preference for flat, all-weather tracks. Cuban Cigar’s pedigree does not lend itself to a hurdling career as sire Havana Gold’s sole winning juvenile from thirteen did so in a good ground Kempton handicap off bottom weight, and the damline is devoid of jumps ability until Model Man (5/2), Far Pavilions (5/3), American Trilogy (5/4) and Melodic Rendezvous (5/4) stem from the fifth dam. He went as low as 6/1 on the morning of his Leicester bow at the end of November, but drifted out to 20/1 at the off. Held up towards the rear, his jumping lacked fluency as he was big and skewed over most of his hurdles. He did make some headway on the turn for home and jumped three out within a couple of lengths of the lead. However, he was soon weakening and though less imaginative, his jumps were tired ones as he faded to finish a thirty length fifth of nine. He was back on the flat a fortnight later when fourth of six at Wolverhampton. Cuban Cigar’s flat form is acceptable and this race could be limit of his stamina in terms of pace and distance. However, while it is curious that connections are persisting with this hurdling adventure, there is little in Leicester outing or his overall profile to suggest that he will pose a serious threat in this sphere on this surface in this company.

Dawn Tapper bg Joe Ponting f12-1-0 (51) 63
Dawn Approach (Shamardal){23}(1.17) 1/1 Dawn Hoofer 3rd 3-Y-O Hurdle, Punchestown 2018
Joe Ponting, who trained Dollydo to win a point-to-point at Tiverton when he was still at school, is one winner from one in his rookie season of training juveniles, courtesy of Gavin wining a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter in November. His second juvenile hurdler is set to be Dawn Tapper, who came from a Jim Bolger whose former inmates have a winner to runner rate of 27.16% in the sphere. That rate does drop to 20.83% for trainers who are not Nigel Hawke and his least expensive winning juvenile hurdler sold at auction was Drumshambo for 8,000 guineas in 2009. Dawn Tapper fetched just 4,500 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, although his 53 rating was still higher than other ex-Bolger winners in Punch Bag (48) and peat Moss (50). Furthermore, Dawn Tapper also managed to win a race on the flat in the form of a seventeen runner, nine furlong Leopardstown handicap on soft ground, off a mark of 54. He ran to a similar level on his next two outings when beaten at Dundalk and Roscommon, but these performances during August were the standouts in his eleven race tenure, exceeding five prior and four subsequent efforts by upwards of a stone. Since joining Joe Ponting, Dawn Tapper had a spin around Wolverhampton a fortnight ago and while he beat only two of his eight rivals home, was beaten less than four lengths. Sire Dawn Approach has yet to sire a winning juvenile from twelve, Dawn Tapper’s full-sister Dawn Hoofer was a reasonable maiden in the sphere and the third dam produced fairly useful jumps winners New Millennium and Diamondgeezer Luke. There are bits and pieces of Dawn Tapper’s profile that are quite likeable, but the patches and class deficit give little cause for optimism first time out.

Dirham Emirati bg Gary Moore f5-1-1 (78) 81
Vadamos (Rip Van Winkle){23}(0.30) 2/1 Point of Principle 2nd Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (G3,135), Chepstow 2018
Both the highest rated and most expensive flat recruit in this line-up, Dirham Emirati commanded 62,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale in order to bring a mark of 78 to the sphere. Starting his career with David Simcock in a Kempton novice stakes last February, he shaped with promise when finishing midfield; learning enough to get off the mark at the second time of asking at Newcastle a month later. Stepping up to a mile and a half, Dirham Emirati travelled comfortably behind the leader and after taking the lead at the distance, was pushed out for a comfortable two length victory. His cause was helped by the favourite disappointing, but the subsequent form allows for a rating in the mid to high seventies. Given a ten week break, he returned with a reasonable third at Thirsk on soft ground before being comfortably and predictably outclassed in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Following another break of two months, and a switch to the yard of Kevin Philippart De Foy, Dirham Emirati folded inside the final furlong to finish last of four in a fourteen-furlong Chelmsford handicap. Though beaten eight lengths, it was not a disgraceful effort as he was conceding weight all round and the front pair each won next time out. Though purchased by Philip Middleton to go hurdling, Dirham Emirati was switched to Gary Moore’s yard after being withdrawn from the Goffs December Horses-in-Training sale. Gary Moore’s strong record in the division is news to few and his winner to runner rate with flat recruits is a healthy 31.43%. There is also a fair deal to like about the pedigree. Vadamos is having his first crop of juveniles and while only one of his twelve British/Irish horses have won to date, Calvados and Big Boy Bobby have posted respectable efforts and his French crop of three-year-olds count two winners from four. The distaff side has a shade of purple about it with Cerulean Sky, Honolulu, Moonstone, Orchestra and US Army Ranger all closely related. Furthermore, granddam L’Ancresse, an Oaks and Breeders Cup runner-up herself, has produced winning hurdlers in the useful Point of Principle and former Cisswood Stables resident Light Well. Dirham Emirati’s form, pedigree, stamina and connections make him a compelling recruit and he ought to be treated with the upmost respect here. Notwithstanding, though potentially a statistical anomaly, the fact that Gary Moore has saddled only one winning juvenile from forty-nine is somewhat troubling.

Glide Down bg Alan King f6-0-3 (72) 78 j1-0-1 (-) 94 101
Point Of Entry (Silver Hawk){9-f}(1.44) 2/2 Tap Tap Boom 4th Prix Pierre de Lassus (G3,4yH), Auteuil 2018
In contrast to Gary Moore, Alan King has a fantastic record with his juveniles around Kempton. Since 2004/05, sixty-eight runs have resulted in twenty-one wins, and his record in this particular contest is even stronger with four of his eleven runners winning and another three reaching the frame. However, while those winners were all at least fairly useful (Pouvoir, Fidux, L’Unique and Redicean) this season’s representative is probably a class below that standard. The sole flat maiden in this contest, Glide Down raced six times in that sphere and his official rating of 72 does put him in the mix. Two runner-up placings at Salisbury and Chelmsford sandwiched a fourteen length second behind Derby winner Adayar at Nottingham. Gelded over the winter, he returned with a close third of five at Lingfield in March before finishing last of four and sixth of eight in handicaps at Lingfield and Newbury. There were excuses on each occasion, but his mark dropping to 72 still seemed a fair reflection of his overall abilities on the level. Glide Down was then given twenty-five weeks to prepare for his hurdling career. Being an American male, he does not have the most obvious sirelines as Point Of Entry’s other offspring have achieved little over hurdles, and the Dynaformer line is rather spurious; although he is the grandsire of Adagio. The distaff side is also predominantly set across the Atlantic, but a few of Glide Down’s cousins have done quite well over hurdles including Tap Tap Boom, Thumbs Up (the other one), Turf Trivia and New York Turf Writers Cup Hurdle winner Dark Equation. Glide Down’s hurdling debut came at Market Rasen in early December. Starting at 7/2 in what was a rather tepid contest, Glide Down raced freely while tracking the leaders. He was novicey over the first couple, but jumped better until getting close to the last in the back. Making his challenge on entering the straight, he completely misjudged the penultimate flight and stumbled on landing. Though back in the mix at the last, an awkward landing gave the initiative to Tease And Seize who extended his superiority to just over four lengths at the line. The winner was not disgraced in finishing midfield in the Finale Hurdle, and the third would go one better in a modest contest at Wetherby last week. Nevertheless, the performance could not be rated much higher than 100 which is not the most unassailable target for his rivals. Furthermore, while his hurdling experience will count for something, the yard has rather gone into hibernation as of late and recent comments on Glide Down suggest that his running here is more in the spirit of exploration than annexation.

Silver Shade grg Milton Harris f9-2-2 (73) 80
Kendargent (Alzao){4-b}(0.57) 2/1 Teenage Idol 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (124), Ayr 2012
Milton Harris has enjoyed an outstanding season to date in the division and much of this is down to some astute buying at Tattersalls at the July and Autumn sales. Aliomaana, Knight Salute, Genuflex and Galah have all won this term having gone around the Newmarket ring, with no price tag exceeding 21,000 guineas. Silver Shade cost 18,000 at the Autumn Sale, leaving Mark Johnston with two wins and a mark of 73 to his name. Finishing down the field during three outings at two, Silver Shade returned from his winter break sans testicles. The shedding of two stones reaped immediate results as he finished second over a mile and a half in a Lingfield handicap off 58 before landing a double at Newcastle and Southwell in March and April. Both contests were held over the same trip with neither being especially competitive. Silver Shade had only three rivals to defeat at Newcastle and while he was a most convincing winner, the subsequent form has not worked out. At Southwell, had only the one opponent who he beat in a canter to justify 30/100 favouritism. There is more substance to his Sandown second next time out where he raced over a heavy fourteen furlongs off 73. Although he was no match for Zinc White, he still had enough to fend off the challenge of Pied Piper for second; the latter, who was giving away thirteen pounds, is now prominent in the Triumph betting. Lacking the pace for a steadily run class 2 on good to firm at Doncaster, Silver Shade was last seen pulling up immediately after the start of a Musselburgh handicap in late June. No explanation was given for his pulling up, nor were any caveats given in his catalogue page where he was presumably sound enough to get past the Tattersalls vets. Since 2004/05, thoroughbred family 4-b has had no winning juveniles from six, although this does not appear to be an endemic issue as Three Kingdoms was a useful sort who won three times at four while K?nig Ulrich, a distant relative at 6/4, won the Prix Maurice Gillois (the Arkle chase for four-year-olds) in 1989. Closer on the damline are the good German hurdler K?nigstreuer at 4/1 while uncle Teenage Idol was a fairly useful winner. Kendargent is the winningmost sire of juvenile hurdlers represented in this field with two from his eleven, while his record in France is a fairly solid nine winners from forty-eight. Silver Shade’s mysterious pulling up last time does linger in the mind, but assuming good health, he probably has the least questions to answer in this field. His flat form is amongst the best, his pedigree is very feasible and the yard, which leads the country for juvenile debutants with clear rounds of jumping, is in healthy form without any misgivings over the track. Furthermore, neither stamina nor conditions present any concerns and with the possible opportunity for an easy lead, Silver Shade may prove difficult to catch at this level.

tl;dr
Cuban Cigar – Has ran twenty-five times on the flat and is hardy, consistent and honest enough in that sphere. Stamina not assured however and did not look a natural on hurdles bow.

Dawn Tapper – Inexpensive Jim Bolger dispersal but feasibly bred and should stay trip. Despite winning in Ireland, does have a class deficit to overcome and unlikely to be good enough first time.

Dirham Emirati – Highest rated and most expensive of these on the flat. Solid enough pedigree and with yard that does very well in sphere; although not so much at Kempton

Glide Down – Fair maiden on flat and second on hurdling debut at Market Rasen sets a fair but not unassailable standard. Stable has fine record in this race but this year’s representative looks a class below and not much enthusiasm drawn from trainer’s words or recent form.

Silver Shade – Dual winner on flat for Mark Johnston and best form is threatening in context of this race. Has to account for mysterious pulling up when last seen. Nevertheless, with highly capable yard, has perfectly acceptable pedigree, with conditions and possible race composition likely to suit.

Strong prospects
1. Silver Shade
Reasonable prospects
2. Dirham Emirati
Feasible prospects
3. Glide Down
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Dawn Tapper
5. Cuban Cigar

 

[Benjy23]

Top read and picked out another winner there pal. Thought you had yesterday as well!

 

[parimutuel]

Excellent write up again Kotkijet :encouragement:

 

[Grand Canyon]

Brilliant yet again Kotkijet, Really enjoy watching your analysis play out.

 

[Kotkijet]

Most appreciated lads

Even though I am not a tipster and INSIST that my content is strictly informative and never advisory, I am glad at least that those ignoring the advice have been doing quite well

The main reason I am very shy about the tipster label is because I do not bet on these races. Thus, if I am not willing to risk money on my content, it would be quite impudent of me to suggest that others should have a go!

Notwithstanding, the work has been very rewarding and, though I would be ashamed to admit it, the results have been a delightful bonus. Though there has been no material gain on my part, these figures indicate that I probably have a fair idea of what I am talking about when it comes to juvenile hurdlers. Particularly as I am unable to be remotely selective or make any account for "value". Indeed, such a run can not be sustainable so I may as well post this while I can enjoy doing so...

notes
1) Keepyourdreamsbig was initially the second choice, but an update was posted on race day where he was placed into the top slot
2) I have gone back to when I had something resembling secure accommodation which was around the start of August.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Most appreciated lads

Even though I am not a tipster and INSIST that my content is strictly informative and never advisory, I am glad at least that those ignoring the advice have been doing quite well

The main reason I am very shy about the tipster label is because I do not bet on these races. Thus, if I am not willing to risk money on my content, it would be quite impudent of me to suggest that others should have a go!

Notwithstanding, the work has been very rewarding and, though I would be ashamed to admit it, the results have been a delightful bonus. Though there has been no material gain on my part, these figures indicate that I probably have a fair idea of what I am talking about when it comes to juvenile hurdlers. Particularly as I am unable to be remotely selective or make any account for "value". Indeed, such a run can not be sustainable so I may as well post this while I can enjoy doing so...

notes
1) Keepyourdreamsbig was initially the second choice, but an update was posted on race day where he was placed into the top slot
2) I have gone back to when I had something resembling secure accommodation which was around the start of August.

Just wanted to add my appreciation for all your hard work Kotkijet. I’ve genuinely never seen analysis this good on a specific division anywhere on fatjockey or in the real world. Thankyou.

 

[Kotkijet]

Just wanted to add my appreciation for all your hard work Kotkijet. I’ve genuinely never seen analysis this good on a specific division anywhere on fatjockey or in the real world. Thankyou.

Many thanks MoM. I am currently working on the Ascot preview, but yesterday, I did do a bit of a catch up on my Irish form going up to the new year, as per the curiosity of (and as a token of my appreciation for your appreciation)

I asked a similar question a week or so back Eggs and Kotkijet said there were still several potential nice ones that hadn't been out yet so he was holding off doing a kind of pre Triumph preview, will be fascinating reading when it's up though....

I know he's very keen on Knights Salute so it'll be interesting how he rates him in comparison to the Irish juveniles.

These thoughts are very much brief, arbitrary, and have not been subject to the same level of rigour usually applied to general profiles or previews. Nevertheless...

Ireland;-
Fil Dor has the best form in the book, but I am not sure how much further he is going to improve. He obviously jumps as well as you would like from a high class juvenile, but he strikes me more a chasing type than a fast and ready-made hurdler. Furthermore, given how slow his Leopardstown effort was in the early stages, one would have liked to have seen Fil Dor complete the final couple of furlongs in a quicker time. Granted he was not asked for his all, and Sir Gerhard is a very good prospect, but the latter didn't even come off the bridle. I am probably nit-picking, and I do not find Fil Dor's place at the head of the Triumph market to be disagreeable. However, by the same token, I do not think he is the good thing that the prices suggest.

Vauban was given a very strong write-up in an earlier piece and his hurdling debut at Punchestown has only strengthened my enthusiasm. Learned as he jumped and lost the race only due to the unfortunate manner in which the paths were chosen in the straight. Form and finishing time absolutely hold up and he has the scope to leave this performance a long way behind. Very much my idea of Ireland's biggest threat.

However, I do not think that the Irish are a league above the home contingent at this stage. Porticello's win at Chepstow is the strongest individual piece of form, but Knight Salute had his measure at Doncaster and while the former perhaps has more scope for improvement, Knight Salute has course form, versatility for pace and ground conditions, and is endowed with fantastic resolve.

Iceo looked good at Kempton but the impression is that his rivals got stuck in the mud. Will need another outing to get a better idea of his potential. Lunar Power is held by Fil Dor, Pied Piper has less scope than Vauban, and nothing else looks like a Triumph winner.

Again, all very arbitrary and nothing I will hold myself to until I have done a comprehensive assessment.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Many thanks MoM. I am currently working on the Ascot preview, but yesterday, I did do a bit of a catch up on my Irish form going up to the new year, as per the curiosity of





These thoughts are very much brief, arbitrary, and have not been subject to the same level of rigour usually applied to general profiles or previews. Nevertheless...

Ireland;-
Fil Dor has the best form in the book, but I am not sure how much further he is going to improve. He obviously jumps as well as you would like from a high class juvenile, but he strikes me more a chasing type than a fast and ready-made hurdler. Furthermore, given how slow his Leopardstown effort was in the early stages, one would have liked to have seen Fil Dor complete the final couple of furlongs in a quicker time. Granted he was not asked for his all, and Sir Gerhard is a very good prospect, but the former didn't even come off the bridle. I am probably nit-picking, and I do not find Fil Dor's place at the head of the Triumph market to be disagreeable. However, by the same token, I do not think he is the good thing that the prices suggest.

Vauban was given a very strong write-up in an earlier piece and his hurdling debut at Punchestown has only strengthened my enthusiasm. Learned as he jumped and lost the race only due to the unfortunate manner in which the paths were chosen in the straight. Form and finishing time absolutely hold up and he has the scope to leave this performance a long way behind. Very much my idea of Ireland's biggest threat.

However, I do not think that the Irish are a league about the home contingent at this stage. Porticello's win at Chepstow is the strongest individual piece of form, but Knight Salute had his measure at Doncaster and while the former perhaps has more scope for improvement, Knight Salute has course form, versatility for pace and ground conditions, and is endowed with fantastic resolve.

Iceo looked good at Kempton but the impression is that his rivals got stuck in the mud. Will need another outing to get a better idea of his potential. Lunar Power is held by Fil Dor, Pied Piper has less scope than Vauban, and nothing else looks like a Triumph winner.

Again, all very arbitrary and nothing I will hold myself to until I have done a comprehensive assessment.

Much appreciated K...

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

Kotkijet You think Vauban is a better prospect for the Triumph than Icare Allen?

 

[Kotkijet]

I have him about half a stone ahead on bare form. That said, they each have considerable strengths in their profiles and judging by the history of what happens when Mullins introduces one over Christmas, there is no real distinction insofar as which race gets the better entries... Vauban has the lead over Icare Allen, but it is not insurmountable.

 

[Sprinter Sacre]

I have him about half a stone ahead on bare form. That said, they each have considerable strengths in their profiles and judging by the history of what happens when Mullins introduces one over Christmas, there is no real distinction insofar as which race gets the better entries... Vauban has the lead over Icare Allen, but it is not insurmountable.

Amazing. Thanks for showing the spreadsheet image too.

 

[Geegees]

Any thoughts on the Irish hill race tomorrow? I know they was very sweet on him before his debut

 

[Kotkijet]

Any thoughts on the Irish hill race tomorrow? I know they was very sweet on him before his debut

I got you covered :encouragement:

***NOTICE***
During the time I was writing this essay, Graystone got bored and decided to do something else instead. The essay has been written and I will leave it as is for posterity. However, Hayedo, who initially had "feasible prospects", has been bumped up to top "reasonable prospect" on account of his likely uncontested lead.

Enjoy

Ascot – 22nd January – Preview
The Aurelius Hurdle, named after the St Leger winner who would go on to win a steeplechase at Ascot’s newly established National Hunt circuit, was first held in 1968 when Banquo would reach the frame in both this and the Triumph. Paddy’s Return won both races during the nineties, but the contest was discontinued, with something of a bang, in 2003 as it was taken by Tamarinbleu; who would win the Clarance House Chase four seasons later. Incidentally, it was on the 2008 card that this particular juvenile contest was established. One of just two juveniles held at Ascot, the other being the handicap towards the end of the season, it has since produced a Triumph winner in Zaynar, an almost Triumph winner in Goshen, Triumph placed Top Notch and Grandouet, along with future Ascot Chase winner Balder Succes. Its most notable winner came in the first renewal won by Binocular, who was the latest hurdling debutant to land the race before Tritonic made a strong impression last season. This year’s renewal contains a nicely bred Dan Skelton newcomer with a good flat rating, although the experienced participants do set a good standard; headed by four winning hurdlers with respectable form. A galloping, right-handed track with decent drainage and a steady climb from Swinley Bottom, Ascot has below average winning DIs of 1.14 median, 1.33 mean. However, though stamina is far from optional at Ascot, the figures are more indicative of the class of runner the course attracts. There is little difference between the winning DIs and those of beaten horses, and the completion rate of 93.07% is the second highest in Britain behind Haydock. The clear round rate of 98.54% is the third highest in the country, and that all ten odds-on favourites have obliged since 2004/05 further emphasises how fair Ascot is for juvenile hurdlers. Two of the previous winners in the line-up did so having forced the pace to a solid tempo looks likely. The going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places, and rainfall is not anticipated before post time.

Graystone rgg Lucy Wadham f11-3-3 (75) 80 j4-1-2 (121) 117 125
Dark Angel (Distorted Humor){8-k}(3.00) No jumps relatives
Costing 50,000 guineas at the Craven Breeze-up at two-years-old, Graystone is a son of Dark Angel out of a half-sister to a Grade 1 winning American filly. Though precociously bred, Graystone’s first piece of flat form came when winning on his first outing at three in a seven-furlong Yarmouth handicap off 66. From there, he would mostly perform consistently and maintain steady improvement; reaching a new level when stepped up to ten furlongs. Failing by a head to win a soft ground Beverley handicap on his penultimate flat outing, he made amends on his final start in that sphere when winning his third race at Kempton off 71. Graystone had a tendency to race freely on the flat and while Dark Angel gets winning juveniles. his record is only fair. Furthermore, given the American pedigree, there are no jumpers on the damline until one goes back eleven dams and forward seven to find Beau Trempoli. Nevertheless, Lucy Wadham does very well with her juvenile hurdlers (thirteen winners from twenty-seven prior to Graystone) and with a BHA mark in the eighty-second percentile of flat rated recruits, Graystone went off the 5/1 second favourite for his hurdles bow in a useful looking Warwick contest in early November. Setting off in a prominent position, he skewed over the first and became lit up after getting close to the second. Errors persisted in his round, but while the winner had flown, he got the better of the third by three lengths. The form, which looked reasonable at the time, has since been given some major boosts. In This World has not been out since but his victim in an AQPS bumper, Fil Dor, has emerged as favourite for the Triumph after some emphatic performances. Meanwhile, third placed Interne de Sivola won at Cheltenham ahead of two subsequent winners. With this in mind, Graystone’s second appearance over hurdles, coming in an all aged maiden at Huntingdon, can only be regarded as disappointing; as per his starting price of 1/2. Held up in the rear of midfield, he was already shaken up six furlongs from home and while he made some headway into contention towards the end of the back, he had no extra to give and would merely plug on into third on the run-in. His jumping also left plenty to be desired and the form has been besmirched by the clear winner and the fourth. Nevertheless, a return to Warwick brought about a return to winning ways as Graystone, sent off an unsteady 11/4 second favourite, was able to register his first win over hurdles. Reverting to a front-running role while taking a keen grip, Graystone was always travelling well within himself and had all but one of his rivals toiling on entering the straight. He was still given to making careless mistakes but apart from clambering over the last, where he had the race in safe keeping, there was nothing alarming about his aptitude and he ran out a comfortable seven length winner. He set a clear standard on hurdles form on his most recent outing at Taunton towards the end of last month, but was deposed as favourite by the Paul Nicholls newcomer, Irish Hill. Still racing freely, Graystone went into a clear lead, posting his best round of jumping in the process. His rivals were closing on him as they entered the straight, but to the eye, they did not appear to be doing so at a sufficient rate to reign in the leader and Graystone went as low as 1.03 in-running. However, having hurdled well to the penultimate flight, it was here that he made his first serious error; getting in very close without lifting his legs. His second error coming at the last where he skewed in the air, landed steeply before stumbling to the ground. The consensus is that he would most likely have won the race, although along with the sharp decline in his jumping, it is also worth noting that the final furlong was completed over two seconds slower than the previous. Even accounting for the fact that the final furlong featured no hurdles, the comparative times set by the all-the-way winner in the fillies’ race later on the card suggested more equilibrium could have been expected. Graystone does set the standard on bare form, is racing on fair terms, represents an in-form yard and is entitled to the according respect. However, despite the pull in weights with Irish Hill, he is not certain to confirm any perceived superiority and the likely pace angle will probably work against him here.

Hayedo bg Gary Moore f4-0-3 (-) 84 j3-1-1 (115) 114 118
Sea The Moon (Sholokhov){7-c}(0.65) 3/1 Hill Fairy 1st Lombardstown Mares Novice Chase (L), Cork 2008
https://www.pronoturf.es/ficha-cabal...60b8d619314a2e
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hayedo
Starting his career in Spain before racing in France, the German bred Hayedo is set to have his fourth outing over British hurdles. After fetching €58,000 as a yearling, Hayedo twice ran for Patrik Olave at La Zarzuela, Madrid late in the season, placing second on each occasion. Hayedo’s third flat outing is much more easily quantified. Having his first run for Edouard Monfort, Hayedo reappeared in a quite valuable maiden contest at Longchamp over 2000m in May. Keen in the early stages, he pulled himself into the lead and settled better as a result. He would maintain his advantage to the distance and though outpaced by the winner, would keep on gamely to hold second. The form is of a reasonable standard with the length and a quarter winner rated 96.8, and the third rated 88. Hayedo failed to match this form on his sole subsequent outing which came over 2200m at Lyon the following month. Though running a similar kind of race, he did not settle quite so well and while he fought on bravely after being headed turning for home, he found himself swamped in the final strides, finishing just under two lengths behind in fourth. There was encouragement for Hayedo’s new vocation in the pedigree. Sea The Moon (Allmankind, Tritonic) has a winner runner rate of 28.57% and an improvement rate of 50%. Sholokhov is untried as a damsire but 30% of his own progeny win in the sphere and the third dam is the matriarch of winning jumpers Hill Fairy (3/1), Hey Little Boy (3/1) and North Hill (3/2). His first run over hurdles came at Fontwell in November where he was backed into 9/1 having opened twice that price in the ring. Initially held up, he moved into midfield during the first circuit and was tracking the leaders going out second time round. However, he began to lose touch nearing the end of the back and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths. His caused was not helped by some novicey jumping which grew more dramatic as the race progressed, closing his round by hopping through his hurdles. Hayedo reappeared at Sandown early last month and was once again subject to outside support, trimmed from 16/1 to 10/1 at the off. He was sent into the lead and though he was still prone to hopping through the top of his flights at times, it was a much better round overall. He ceded the lead approaching the penultimate flight and had little left after the last, losing a remote second close to the line. Four weeks later, Hayedo returned in a maiden hurdle at Hereford; drifting from 4/1 to 8/1 during the day, before returning to 9/2 in the ring. Taking a keen hold, Hayedo went straight to the front while demonstrating good improvement in his jumping. He was neat when ridden into the first, but though rather tight at the second, was fluent from thereon. His rivals were all in trouble at the cross section and by the time he entered the straight, was half-a-dozen lengths clear. He was steady before hopping through the top of the last, but the runner-up made an even worse blunder which allowed Hayedo to storm to a thirteen length success. His task was made easier by the favourite pulling too hard, but the form is close to his flat best and there may be even further to come. Hayedo is entitled to run in a race of this nature under a penalty and is the representative of an in-form Gary Moore yard whose last three runs in this race resulted in a win (Goshen) and two placings (Beat The Judge and Casa Loupi). However, while his form is only marginally the weakest of the previous winners, the prospect of another uncontested lead is not assured.

Irish Hill grg Paul Nicholls f4-2-1 (38.0/83.6) 80 j1-1-0 (-) 106 119
Kingston Hill (Monsun){14-a}(0.47) 2/1 Idjen 1st 3800m Conditions Hurdle, Wissembourg 2008
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/irish-hill
The sadly departed Jeremy and Mastercraftsman, each from the Danehill Dancer line, have been two of the most successful sires of juveniles in recent years despite their Dosage Indexes being 1.82. Two other sons, Fast Company and Choisir, have improvement rates of 65% and 73% despite having DIs of 2.06 and 2.60 respectively. Indeed, the former is already developing a nice record as a grandsire of juveniles with Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner building positive records for themselves. Kingston Hill, a St Leger winning son of Mastercraftsman out of a half-sister to the useful hurdler Lord Jim, has a DI of just 0.90 and is a smidge taller than leading juvenile sire Authorized. Naturally, Kingston Hill makes for a most intriguing addition to the ranks of jumps stallions which explains why he was transferred from Coolmore to the operation’s National Hunt base at Castle Hyde Stud. His first crop did not achieve a great deal due to a lack of firepower. However, recent Paul Nicholls recruit Irish Hill is a couple of stones superior to the other Kingston Hills seen in the division thus far. Starting his career with Peter Schiergen, whose exports to the juvenile division have a winner to runner rate of 20.83%, not including the useful maidens Landin and the Paul Nicholls trained Ecco, and an improvement rate of 58.33%. Though previously based in Germany, Irish Hill has raced exclusively in France and made his debut at La Crouse Laroche over 2,500m when third to subsequent Groupe III runner-up Tides Of War in April. He got off the mark later that month when winning a 2400m maiden at Lyon on good to soft ground by three quarters of a length. Irish Hill raced lazily when well beaten at Nantes in June, but regained the winning thread towards the end of July on his final appearance in France at Longchamp. Stepping up to 2,800m, he travelled on the good ground with much more vibrancy while tracking the leader, and though his rival was a tough nut to crack, Irish Hill was able to get his head in front inside the final half-furlong before scoring by a length and a quarter. The form has a solid look to it with four last time out winners in behind, the runner-up was a 72.6 rated filly in receipt of four and a half kilos, and the third won a quinte handicap next time out. Paul Nicholls already has a few French recruits with hurdling form out this season including winners Magistrato and Iceo. Nevertheless, his continental flat imports also have a strong record with 57.89% of them winning as juveniles including the likes of Zarkandar, Pierrot Lunaire and Zubayr. The damline, being of a predominantly Teutonic nature, does not have much in the way of famous hurdlers but there are still several who have won in the sphere including Idjen (2/1), Imago (3/1), Interpret (3/2) and Iligan (4/1). Subject of a flattering report from Tom Malone, Irish Hill has ample class and stamina to make an impact in the sphere. Irish Hill’s British/jumps debut came just over three weeks ago at Taunton. It was a decent looking contest for the venue, but that did not prevent Irish Hill from being pushed into even money favouritism. He settled nicely enough while tracking the leader, although he did not make the best initial impression with his jumping as he was steady over the first two, went right at the third and was slow at the fourth. Nevertheless, though still given to brushing a couple while taking half a stride to get away from his flights, his hurdling did improve as the race progressed and was heading the pursuit of the leader turning for home. The deficit was not closing all too quickly, and he traded at 30 in-running before being left in the lead at the last. However, the leader’s capitulation and the closing sectionals make an argument for the race not being as cut and dry as it appeared. After side-stepping a tumbling Bryony Frost, Irish Hill stayed on to fend off the challenge of the closing Girandole, putting two lengths between himself and the runner-up, with the pair a further twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Paul Nicholls had a decent strike rate of 20% with continental flat recruits before Taunton, and that rate increases to 48% for their second outings. Irish Hill began his jumps career on a very solid platform and having shaped very much like an improver with pace and conditions looking likely to suit, he comes into this contest with a substantial profile.

 

[Kotkijet]

Twilight Twist bg Alan King f6-1-1 (70) 74 j3-1-1 (123) 111 120
Twilight Son (Pour Moi){14-c}(0.57) 3/1 Krosno 1st 4YO Maiden Hurdle, Naas 1998
Alan King is one of the most dominant trainers of juvenile hurdles in the game and his last four runners in this particular contest – Balder Succes, Gibralfaro, Nayati and Tritonic – were all winners. He is set to saddle two in this year’s renewal in Twilight Twist and Restitution. Costing 5,000 guineas at last year’s Tattersalls Guineas Breeze-up, Twilight Twist earned his sole flat victory when staying on well under pressure to narrowly land an ordinary Wolverhampton novice auction stakes in November 2020. He would fail to double his tally in four outings at three and reached the frame just the once when third off 70 in a twelve furlong handicap off back at Wolverhampton in mid-July. First season jumps sire, Twilight Son, is a reasonable height, but is not otherwise a particularly compelling prospect for the sphere; being a precocious, speedy sort. Nevertheless, some of this speed is mitigated by damsire Pour Moi, and those trained for both codes by Alan King have a strong winner to runner rate of 47.83%; to which Twilight twist contributed when making a winning hurdles bow at Huntingdon on Halloween. Warm in the market and starting the 9/4 second favourite, Twilight Twist was keen early while being restrained in mid-divsion. He got in close to the first, and steadied when clipping the penultimate flight, but posted a mostly fluent round first time. Making headway on the home turn, he entered the straight disputing the lead and though his rival was persistent, he was able to pull out a decisive length with the pair well clear. He returned four weeks later for a warm introductory hurdle at Newcastle where he was a solid 11/8 second favourite. Tracking the leaders in a steadily run, six-strong affair, he was untidy at the first and became lit up after hitting the second. Twilight Twist had settled better towards the end of the back and was in a decent jumping rhythm. Smoothly moving to the lead either side of three out, he looked to be travelling with purpose at the distance. However, he pecked after hitting the top of the penultimate flight and was headed shortly afterwards. Any remaining hope and momentum was lost when he flattened the last, before finishing nearly five lengths behind his market rival. Twilight Twist was out again a fortnight later, taking in a class two at Cheltenham. Though clashing with the Summit at Doncaster, it was still a good quality affair for which he was less fancied than usual at 11/1. Keen again in the early stages, Twilight Twist sat in midfield and apart from missing the fifth (he had been hampered by a larger rival at the previous flight), put in a fluent round of hurdling. Though towards the rear on top of the hill, Twilight Twist was still in close enough order, but was again hampered by the same oafish rival and entered the straight detached in last place. His path was blocked on landing after the last, but he stayed on well to make up five places on the run-in to get within half a length of the third. Even without the trouble in running, the performance marked a new career best and the second and third each boosted the form when winning over the holidays. Initially penciled in for the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham next week, Twilight Twist has been rerouted to assist Restitution in his yard’s quest to maintain its strong record in this contest. There is a fair deal to like about Twilight Twist’s improvement with each outing, and the decent pace can help him to settle better. However, while Alan King’s charges are not running abysmally, he has gone thirty-seven runs without a jumps winner which is most unusual for a trainer of his calibre.

Doctor Parnassus bg Dan Skelton f10-0-5 (75) 83
Make Believe (Authorized){1-n}(0.45) 0.5 Metier 1st Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Sandown 2021
The sole hurdling debutant in this field, Doctor Parnassus was formerly trained by David O’Meara; the supplier of four winning juveniles to the division from eleven including the useful Redicean and the promising Dr T J Eckleburg. Though he failed to win in ten attempts, Doctor Parnassus reached the frame on four occasions including when last seen in a twelve furlong, soft ground, Pontefract maiden in early October. The 7/2 third favourite of eight, he made the running at an even tempo and posted what was probably a career best in that sphere. He was able to see off the favourite’s challenge from the top of the straight, but was caught and passed close home by the smart hurdling mare Indefatigable. The resolve of Doctor Parnassus had previously been called into question, and though he ran to the line, his head carriage under pressure was still somewhat suspect. Notwithstanding, his stamina and class were arguably sufficient for his 66,000 guinea price tag at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale without even accounting for his compelling pedigree. Make Believe made a good first impression as a jumps sire last season with three winning juveniles from nine including Sage Advice and First Impression. Damsire Authorized is one of the strongest influence in the sphere and the distaff side is also creditable. From the same family as Teofilo (3/1), Doctor Parnassus is a half-brother to Tolworth winner Metier, out of a full-sister to the capable Constancio, with another winner in Deadly Approach coming from the third dam. In Dan Skelton, Doctor Parnassus joins a trainer with a good credentials in the sphere. His winner to runner rate is 37.65%, his improvement rate of 53.66% is the highest in the field, and his flat recruits are generally ready to go straight away with those rated 70 and above boasting a 34.78% first time strike rate. This is a tough introduction for a newcomer, but Doctor Parnassus has ticks in most of the right boxes and though he needs to fully confirm his tenacity under pressure, a decent first showing would not be unexpected.

Girandole bg Mark Gillard f3-0-1 (50) 49 j2-0-2 (105) 103 117
No Nay Never (Whipper){4-r}(1.67) 3/1 Honoured 3rd 2m?f Novices’ Hurdle, Bangor 2011
Beginning his flat career in July, Girandole was beaten no less than twenty-four lengths and started no shorter than 150/1 in three outings. By No Nay Never, whose sole winning juvenile came in a hot potato of a race, the closest hurdler on the damline with form is the novice placed Honoured at 3/1. Mark Gillard has a 12.5% winner to runner rate in the sphere, yet such was the desperate quality of the field, Girandole was not only able to start at 20/1 for his hurdling debut at Exeter, but also finish second. Held up in the rear off a slow pace, Girandole had just one behind turning for home but was able to travel strongly into a prominent position by the time they reached three out. He was never reaching the winner, who wandered alone in front, but managed to hold on to third from another outsider. Despite the low quality of the contest, Girandole’s performance marked a new career best effort and he took another giant leap forward at Taunton three weeks ago. Sent off at 25/1 having received some outside support, Girandole was held up in midfield and apart from getting tight at the fifth, posted a good round of jumping. With tired rivals falling by the wayside, he found himself in third position turning for home and after being left in second at the last, looked to make a strong challenge as he traded at 2.52 in-running. The winner, Irish Hill, was able to repel him but he still finished twenty lengths ahead of the rest. Strictly at the weights, he has a chance of reversing the form although Irish Hill was clearly the superior racehorse of the two. Notwithstanding, while he was flattered by the pace of the race, his finishing clear of the rest can not be discredited and although this contest looks beyond his scope, there is a race out there for this good and safe hurdler.

Restitution bg Alan King f4-1-3 (76) 80 j1-0-1 (-) 93 94
Frankel (Kendargent){4-i}(0.49) 2/2 Galasina 5th 3550m 3yo Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2021
The stablemate of Twilight Twist and the intended sole arrow for his trainer, Restitution joined Alan King for 50,000 guineas having previously been trained by John Gosden. The master of Clarehaven rarely leaves wriggle room in his former pupils, with their winner to runner rate being a moderate 14.85% and only 20.63% improving on their flat form. Two previous juveniles have made the journey from Newmarket to Barbury Castle, with Tiffin Top landing a Hereford maiden in March, and Sam Lord scoring at five but doing better back on the flat. Third on his debut at Newcastle in December 2020, Restitution made a winning return in a Yarmouth maiden, landing odds of 1/4 in workmanlike fashion. Gelded and given a five month break, during which time he was sold in the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Restitution finished twelve lengths behind a former stablemate at Kempton before placing third on his handicap debut at the same venue off 76. He had been squeezed out inside the final furlong, but was being edged out at the time and would only have finished closer in the same position. His stamina and attitude looked appropriate for a hurdling career, although his pedigree is more passable than exciting. Frankel has yet to excel with his juvenile hurdlers as he has done on the flat, with his figures no better than fair and few of his progeny holding their form between codes. The likes of Noble Request (5/2) and Flying Tiger (5/3) can be found in the echoes of the damline, but the closest jumps relative is a cousin who finished down the field at Fontainebleau. Nevertheless, his flat form and trainer were enough to see him start a solid 9/2 third favourite at Kempton last month. Running mid-division in a strung out field, Restitution made some headway from the far side and turned for home within a couple of lengths of the leader. However, he was left in the winner’s wake shortly on entering the straight and lost second place moments later before toiling home a twenty-nine length third. Slow at times, particularly in the closing stages when tired, his jumping was also marked by a propensity to go right did not help, even around Kempton. Restitution is entitled to improve for the experience, particularly as it came on the softest ground he had hitherto encountered, and the yard does have a fine record in the race. However, he still has the most to find of those with hurdles form and his being joined by a stablemate could be disconcerting given that the yard has been struggling for winners recently.

tl;dr
Graystone – Fairly useful on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise with a win at Warwick. Looked poised to double tally when falling at last at Taunton but was probably tired at the time. Has the strongest form, yard in good nick and fairly weighted, but vulnerable even without the prospects of a contested lead.

Hayedo – Capable maiden in France on flat and improved with each run over hurdles. Off the mark last time in Hereford maiden when making all to win by thirteen lengths. In-form yard has good record in the race and not much to find on form, but would prefer an uncontested lead.

Irish Hill – Exciting recruit for top yard and well fancied to make winning debut at Taunton. Did not impress in early stages but learned as he went and though seemingly fortunate to be left in front at last, could arguably have closed on fallen rival. Considerable improvement anticipated based on both the way he shaped and his trainer’s record with this sort. Conditions and complexion likely to suit.

Twilight Twist – Inexpensive but reasonable winner on flat. Patchy pedigree but those trained for both codes by Alan King have good record and hurdles debut at Huntingdon was a winning one. Jumping errors did not help at Newcastle but still solid performance and Cheltenham outing much better than face value. Roped in to help maintain yard’s strong record in contest, but said yard is going through cold spell.

Doctor Parnassus – Maiden on flat with possibly suspect attitude, but stamina and ability not in question. Those formerly with David O’Meara usually posess scope and pedigree is very interesting. Yard has healthy figures in the sphere, including with this type first time out.

Girandole – Decidedly modest during short flat career and unlikely profile for hurdling. However, proved debut second at Exeter was no fluke by filling same position at Taunton last time. Possibly flattered by race’s complexion and likely to be outclassed here, but safe and honest nevertheless.

Restitution – Winning son of Frankel formerly with John Gosden. Neither factor is regularly sustained over hurdles and though with Alan King, was well beaten on hurdling bow at Kempton. Capable of being competitive at some point but needs to leave debut running far behind. Potential question of confidence as was initially the sole intended runner for this contest.

Strong prospects
1. Irish Hill
Reasonable prospects
2. Hayedo
3. Doctor Parnassus
4. Twilight Twist
Moderate prospects
5. Girandole
6. Restitution
Negligible prospects
.