July ‘24 Yankee

[Eggs]

Many thanks to Spectre for stepping in as Captain last month in MoMs absence. Hopefully MOM is back to lead this month but If anybody fancies being on stand-by for selection duties, it’ll be much appreciated.

Some decent nominations last month, let’s have any thoughts for this one.

 

[Eggs]

….last years July selections didn’t turn out too well. Must do better;

July:
Mister Policeman - Arkle at 20/1
Gala Marceau - Mares Hurdle at 12/1
Good Land - Turners at 20/1
Gaelic Warrior - Stayers at 4/1

Best odds - 28,664/1
Bookmaker - Bet365​

 

[Saxon Warrior]

Eggs

I am part way through updating the 17 races in my RPR 10-Year Pre-Race Trnds Diary (Diary Section on a sticky near the top of that page)

Completed 9 races today (Days 1 and 2).

Will do the other 8 tomorrow

I will see what it reveals about the figures needed from "prior year" (ie: what we already know from the 2023/24 season)

to see if there are angles I can use, and share, this far out, for particular horses, for us to look to exploit :angel:.

 

[Eggs]

….i’m sure we’ll all be reading that analysis Saxon Warrior and adding a few to our individual portfolios. Terrific if we can also find a few for this month’s Yankee.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

….i’m sure we’ll all be reading that analysis Saxon Warrior and adding a few to our individual portfolios. Terrific if we can also find a few for this month’s Yankee.

All complete for the 4 days now :encouragement:

Will have a look through for any thoughts that arise from that work.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I know he was included in Junes Yankee for the BANC, but I really like Readin Tommy Wrong as a potential for the NH Chase @ 33/1.

Willie has plenty of options for the BANC already, the likes of Dancing City, Impaire Et Passe, and Ballyburn plus a few more.

Readin Tommy Wrong is by Authorized out of a High Chaparral mare. Authorized should need little introduction in his ability to produce staying chasers, with Tiger Roll and this years Grand National winner, I Am Maximus, his headline progeny.

High Chaparral is more of a mixed bag, producing the likes of Altior, but his third highest RPR rated progeny is Hadrian's Approach, who won a Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown over 3m5f, giving me enough confidence to believe there is plenty of stamina through Readin Tommy Wrongs breeding that the NH Chase trip will cause no issues.

His Albert Bartlett performance will need a line through it, and it's my personal opinion that the ground got too much for him that day, and whilst he has won on soft, running on heavy at Cheltenham is a completely different test.

If previous festivals are anything to go by then the better ground day of the festival will be day 1, the day of the NH Chase, however, this is speculative, at best.

It's worth remembering that Embassy Gardens was also pulled up in the Albert Bartlett before finishing 2nd in this years NH Chase for Willie, and I'd argue that Readin Tommy Wrong's hurdle form is superior to that of what Embassy Gardens achieved prior to their respective Bartlett runs, leading me to believe Readin Tommy Wrong has a bit more class about him.

 

[Eggs]

…interesting shout ComplyOrDie, you’ve convinced me to add him to my book at a juicy price with cash-out. See what others think regarding the Yankee.

Had at brief look at Saxon’s update this morning, hopefully we can utilise that for a selection or two.

 

[Eggs]

….any views on Gerri Colombe for GC? Comes out very favourably on Saxon’s updated analysis and an almost certain target. 12-1 available.

Still no sign of MoM, be good to have a volunteer captain on stand-by to make selections at the end of the month.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Still no sign of MoM, be good to have a volunteer captain on stand-by to make selections at the end of the month.

Let one of the newbies have a go, they’ve been fairly avtive during quiet season….

 

[Eggs]

Let one of the newbies have a go, they’ve been fairly avtive during quiet season….

….happy for any volunteer but if any of the new FJs want to be on stand-by for selection duties if MOM is still absent in a few weeks it would be much appreciated?

There’s really no pressure, just a matter of reading through the thread and then coming up with 4 you think might give us a chance.

 

[BagOfHammers]

Brides Hill at 12/1 for the Mares Chase is one I’ll put forward. Think she’s just been improving and improving, this will surely be the target whereas many in front of her in the market could go elsewhere. One clear negative however is obviously the ground she doesn’t want it soft.

 

[Eggs]

….any thoughts on Jalon D’oudairies for Gallagher?

Mentioned by Spectre last month but not in his final selections. Won his PtP, unbeaten in a couple of bumpers before finishing a close 3rd in CB. Looks like Elliott then put him away for next season. 14-1 available.

 

[Spectre]

….any thoughts on Jalon D’oudairies for Gallagher?

Mentioned by Spectre last month but not in his final selections. Won his PtP, unbeaten in a couple of bumpers before finishing a close 3rd in CB. Looks like Elliott then put him away for next season. 14-1 available.

They view him as a future staying chaser, plus he's a point winner who's placed in a Bumper, so you'd think he'd go up in trip. His breeding is harder to pin down, with decent relatives on both sides of his family that have operated from 2m to 3m, although he's more likely to be 2m4f-3m in all probability. The one little bit of doubt is that Elliot often quite stubbornly campaigns his good Champion Bumper horses at 2 miles, and there's a possibility he campaigns both him and Romeo Coolio over 2 miles next season. That's why ultimately I didn't consider him.

Jasmin de Vaux I think is the right type to operate at two and half, and I think we should strongly consider him too. It's impossible to ignore that he won pretty well in the end in March running on through the line, clearly outstaying Romeo Coolio who adopted near identical tactics. And I think it's okay to believe he was over the top at Punchestown. He beat Largy Poet really easily in his point, and that one is already 132 over hurdles with upsides. Sunshine Diamond beaten 38 lengths in that point just recently put up a 124RPR at Wexford, but was totally outclassed by JdV. And we can't ignore that if he jumps hurdles well enough he's already beaten the Elliott pair. Considering the Trainers respective records I think I'd have to go with Jasmin de Vaux. There's enough 12/1 around for us to put him in one of these more speculative ones I think. It's guaranteed he'll be half that price on an entry, and then half that again after his debut win.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

….any thoughts on Jalon D’oudairies for Gallagher?

Mentioned by Spectre last month but not in his final selections. Won his PtP, unbeaten in a couple of bumpers before finishing a close 3rd in CB. Looks like Elliott then put him away for next season. 14-1 available.

Really hard to weigh him up, IMO.

The champion bumper form has taken a knock since, with the first two well beat at Punchestown.

His beating of Redemption Day, whilst on the face of it, looks good, I'd argue that RD was coming off the back of a 611 day break, whereas Jalon was race fit, and after the jockey claim, RD was giving 5lbs to Jalon.

On breeding, Jalon could be any trip, really. There is very little on the dams side to get excited about but his sire, No Risk At All, has produced both Allaho & Epatante. Aside from the two mentioned though he doesn't produce many that end up in the 'top class' bracket. I've gone off him as a sire a little, since both Blood Destiny & Allegorie De Vassy have failed to win at the festival, albeit the latter just touched off on her first try, in fairness.

I can't touch him at his current price, for any of the races, in all honesty.

Edit: Just seen Spectre reply, and very much in agreeance that I'd be looking at Jasmin De Vaux.

 

[Odin]

A few each way odds to consider. All have their limitations, and in truth I'm not convinced any will win (except Gaelic), but the four at 33/1 placing returns 2700pts for a 0.5pt ew yankee so it's something to bear in mind...

Arkle
Tullyhill (33/1 365, 40/1 Paddy) is a horse I'm probably too invested in, but if you accept that his Supreme run came too soon after his win at Punchestown in February and that he wasn't right at the Punchestown Festival, this is a massive price for Mullins' best 2 miler (stated on here by R4H). Ballyburn could come this way and scupper it but I don't see Impaire Et Passe dropping down in trip now so who else does Mullins have for this if Majborough has a maturing season over hurdles? Mystical Power doesn't have the breeding for it (nor did Marine Nationale and nor does Slade Steel - make of that what you will).
Jeriko Du Reponet (33/1 365 and Paddy) is another who should be considered at a big price. Ran a shocker at the festival and in truth wasn't overly impressive all season but the two horses he beat in the Rossington Main then came 1st and 2nd in the Dovecote so there is some substance to the form. 33/1 ew for a horse that is likely to be the Henderson number one in the Arkle needs considering given Sir Gino is supposed to be staying hurdles (I believe I picked up from here?)

Mares Hurdle
Birdie Or Bust (33/1). Has been mentioned elsewhere on the site so I won't take any of the credit. I will however add Henry De Bromhead's Mares Hurdle form to the equation: 234/1/BD/7/18 - where the 234 were last year, the 1s were Honeysuckle and the BD was Tellmesomethingirl. Lossiemouth and Brighterdaysahead seem likely to go elsewhere which potentially makes this an even bigger value bet.

Ryanair
Gaelic Warrior (6/1 365, 8/1 Paddy). Just wins this if he comes in this direction. He's made for this race. Fast jumper, prominent racer are perfect for 2.5 miles at Cheltenham and he hosed up in the Arkle. Townend will ride him and El Fabiolo at the Festival assuming both make it and that will push Gaelic in this direction. I'm so confident in this lad I'm starting to sound like MOM and I've been against him his whole career!
Envoi Allen (33/1 365, 50/1 Paddy). Ridiculous price. Came there swinging last year but probably a combination of the ground being a bit slow and him not having an ideal preparation (didn't run after 11th November and was a non-runner due to coughing in late January) put paid to his chances. I don't think he wins here, but again as part of a place accumulator, such a solid option.

Stayers
Facile Vega (33/1). If we are honest, Teahupoo looks super solid and Theleme is nowhere near as attractive a price as he was last year. Realistically, this is the only race Facile can win as he just doesn't jump well enough to win anything else. Maybe a slower pace will help his jumping enough over hurdles, the Mullins stable don't really have anything else for the race and this quote from Patrick Mullins immediately after the festival hints it's a thought process they're considering:
"Thursday was a blowout from our point of view. Facile Vega has frustrated all season. Perhaps he’s another Big Buck's and will show what he can do returned to hurdles? I. Still. Believe.​"
Flooring Porter (25/1) is another to consider in the race. Again, probably won't win but his form in the race is 1142. Enough said on that one.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Really hard to weigh him up, IMO.

The champion bumper form has taken a knock since, with the first two well beat at Punchestown.

His beating of Redemption Day, whilst on the face of it, looks good, I'd argue that RD was coming off the back of a 611 day break, whereas Jalon was race fit, and after the jockey claim, RD was giving 5lbs to Jalon.

On breeding, Jalon could be any trip, really. There is very little on the dams side to get excited about but his sire, No Risk At All, has produced both Allaho & Epatante. Aside from the two mentioned though he doesn't produce many that end up in the 'top class' bracket. I've gone off him as a sire a little, since both Blood Destiny & Allegorie De Vassy have failed to win at the festival, albeit the latter just touched off on her first try, in fairness.

I can't touch him at his current price, for any of the races, in all honesty.

Edit: Just seen Spectre reply, and very much in agreeance that I'd be looking at Jasmin De Vaux.

My concern with Jalon is that Willie originally purchased him as a store but sent him back due to an issue. Admittedly Jalon went on to win a point and have a successful bumper campaign, but that episode with Willie puts me off in regards to his long term future.

 

[darlojim]

Stayers
Facile Vega (33/1). If we are honest, Teahupoo looks super solid and Theleme is nowhere near as attractive a price as he was last year. Realistically, this is the only race Facile can win as he just doesn't jump well enough to win anything else. Maybe a slower pace will help his jumping enough over hurdles, the Mullins stable don't really have anything else for the race and this quote from Patrick Mullins immediately after the festival hints it's a thought process they're considering:
"Thursday was a blowout from our point of view. Facile Vega has frustrated all season. Perhaps he’s another Big Buck's and will show what he can do returned to hurdles? I. Still. Believe.​"
Flooring Porter (25/1) is another to consider in the race. Again, probably won't win but his form in the race is 1142. Enough said on that one.

Ahhh facile vega :boxing:

Where's that cliff edge!?

Yeah shame Theleme is a stinking price this season, although injury obviously worse than initially feared as he was going to be targeted at the French Champion. I wonder if they would be tempted to send Losange Bleu over next season, although I don't believe owner has had runners at the festival previously so maybe unlikely.

 

[Lobos]

Odin has a point. Mullins doesn't have an obvious one for the Stayers but he likes to send one there with a chance. Most people including myself haven't really looked beyond Teahupoo but it's probably very lazy of us. Willie will hold one back from chasing for the race or as Odin says, may switch Vega back to hurdles after last season's failure. Ummmmmm

 

[Odin]

Ahhh facile vega :boxing:

Where's that cliff edge!?

It's a completely fair comment :loyal:

My cliff edge is definitively 3 mile hurdling for the reasons above (can't jump fences, maybe a step slower over hurdles will help), but it's risky. It's more the price that caught my eye - 33/1 365 when he's 14/1 paddy is a big difference suggesting they might want to go that way and that is worth the punt for me.

Not for everyone I accept though - and tbh, I'm not sure I would have him in too many multiples myself! :dejection:​​​​​

 

[ComplyOrDie]

My concern with Jalon is that Willie originally purchased him as a store but sent him back due to an issue. Admittedly Jalon went on to win a point and have a successful bumper campaign, but that episode with Willie puts me off in regards to his long term future.

Completely forgot about this, but yeah, potentially another reason :encouragement: