July ‘23 Yankee

[Eggs]

Good Land - Turners 20/1

….I like him too but state the case Lobos to see if he’s a forum contender.

 

[Lobos]

Good Land.

Going chasing. Looks the ideal race for him. Came back from Cheltenham and was off colour so ran a massive race in the circumstances. Nearly everything around him in the betting would have Big Q marks about them turning up. 20's looks way too big.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

…which is exactly what we want in filtering out 4 potential winners. We all know the perils of ante-post and any information posters can provide is a welcome bonus.

I think at the prices for the Turners, IEP is not worth risking at this point.

Agreed Eggs

Your looking for near certainty of targets, or at least the most likely/logical choice out of two options.

If I were putting on a Festival Yankee this far out, for myself, I’d be looking at horses like….

Gerri Colombe - Gold Cup 7/1. (Festival 2nd in Chase, as 7yo)
Salvador Ziggy - NHC 14/1 (Festival 2nd at 3M)
State Man - Champion Hurdle 6/1 (Festival 1st, 2nd at 2M as 5yo/6yo)
Dinoblue - Mares Chase 16/1 (Festival 2nd in Chase as a 6yo)
—————————
Facile Vega - Arkle 5/1 (Festival 1st, 2nd over 2M as 5yo/6yo)

with either a definite, or a likely target (and do the Yankee with Cashout, if I had it).

If I wanted to narrow the risk, then I’d pick

El Fabiolo - Champion Chase 2/1 (Festival C&D Chase winner as 6yo)

There’s not too many options at the moment, when knowing fixed targets

So I’d prefer to back horses with a decent age profile, who have proved themselves at Cheltenham, and that could have the capacity to do it again.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

…which is exactly what we want in filtering out 4 potential winners. We all know the perils of ante-post and any information posters can provide is a welcome bonus.

I think at the prices for the Turners, IEP is not worth risking at this point.

Agreed Eggs

Your looking for near certainty of targets, or at least the most likely/logical choice out of two options.

If I were putting on a Festival Yankee this far out, for myself, I’d be looking at horses like….

Gerri Colombe - Gold Cup 7/1 (Festival 2nd in chase at age 7yo)
Salvador Ziggy - NHC 14/1 (Festival 2nd)
State Man - Champion Hurdle 6/1 (Festival 1st, 2nd, at age 5yo/6yo)
Dinoblue - Mares Chase 16/1 (Festival 2nd in chase at age 6yo)
—————————
Facile Vega - Arkle 5/1 (Festival 1st, 2nd)

with either a definite, or a likely target (and do the Yankee with Cashout, if I had it).

There’s not too many options at the moment, when knowing fixed targets

For something else solid, but shorter, then

El Fabiolo (Champion Chase)
(Won C&D at Festival at 6yo)

 

[callhimgamblor]

Getting Energumene now at 3/1 seems easy too.... CC seems made for him. Really like Gerri at 6/1 in the GC. FV at 5/1 in the Arkle could look GENIUS if CH stays in the CH and IEP goes to the Turners. Those plus State Man could be a good one. It is a funny time of year knowing that at least one of your picks is going to be up against Constitution Hill....

Gerri Colombe - Gold Cup 6/1
State Man - Champion Hurdle - 6/1
Energumene - Champion Chase - 3/1
Facile Vega - Arkle 5/1

Prices are PP.

Feels a bit skinny but would be nice all the same....

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Getting Energumene now at 3/1 seems easy too.... CC seems made for him. Really like Gerri at 6/1 in the GC. FV at 5/1 in the Arkle could look GENIUS if CH stays in the CH and IEP goes to the Turners. Those plus State Man could be a good one. It is a funny time of year knowing that at least one of your picks is going to be up against Constitution Hill....

Gerri Colombe - Gold Cup 6/1
State Man - Champion Hurdle - 6/1
Energumene - Champion Chase - 3/1
Facile Vega - Arkle 5/1

Prices are PP.

Feels a bit skinny but would be nice all the same....

Personally I think Energumene is one of the worst priced horses for next year.
Duel 2m champion chaser yes but he got lucky both times that the rain fell.
Mullins has El Fabiolo, who I think they believe is very special and could also win multiple champion chases, he also seems less ground dependent.
If you’re backing Enrrgumene I think you need two things to happen, El Fabiolo to miss the festival and for the ground to be deep, if either don’t happen I wouldn’t be surprised if Energumene isn’t on the boat and be held over for Punchestown.
Which for me makes a 3/1 play in July a poor bet…

 

[Kautostar]

Personally I think Energumene is one of the worst priced horses for next year.
Duel 2m champion chaser yes but he got lucky both times that the rain fell.
Mullins has El Fabiolo, who I think they believe is very special and could also win multiple champion chases, he also seems less ground dependent.
If you’re backing Enrrgumene I think you need two things to happen, El Fabiolo to miss the festival and for the ground to be deep, if either don’t happen I wouldn’t be surprised if Energumene isn’t on the boat and be held over for Punchestown.
Which for me makes a 3/1 play in July a poor bet…

He’ll definitely run as he’s on for the treble I just prefer the younger legs of el fabiolo and jonbon over him. I agree the 3/1 this far out is a bad price

 

[Lobos]

He’ll definitely run as he’s on for the treble I just prefer the younger legs of el fabiolo and jonbon over him. I agree the 3/1 this far out is a bad price

You also have to factor in the slim chance that Constitution Hill goes for the Champion Chase. Lots of 'ifs' but if he does go chasing and if he does win his two warm up Novice Chases with ease and if he then goes to the Game Spirit and blows the best of the English away in open Company then he could just go for the big one.

Here's hoping !

 

[Eggs]

….good debate folks, I think the case has been made against Energumene.

So far, Gerri Colombe has worked his way firmly into a selection for the GC.

Keep the shouts coming.

 

[Eggs]

…..anybody any strong thought on the Turners? We know Lobos has put up Good Land. If he was found to be unwell after the Ballymore, he ran a decent race before finding nothing at the finish.

I suppose the Turners is a bit of a guessing race; need a good steer that they are going over fences plus a firm view that mid-distance will be the target.

Good Land is 20-1. Might involve a bit of guesswork but with doubts over IEP, there could be value in that market.

 

[Eggs]

….Dinoblue @ 16-1 (Mares Chase) must be a strong contender given the case put together by Saxon Warrior. A couple of you have highlighted her.

 

[Benjy23]

I've backed both of the above two mentioned in singles. So can't be against either of them.

If I had to pick one horse now that I'd expect to line up in the Turners next March then Good Land would be right up there as first choice. That alone probably makes him a bet for me at 20s. So many of those ahead of him in the market won't be here. His Ballymore run was decent enough, with the odd excuse and he was very highly rated going in to it and always talked of as a chaser. His Nathaniel Lacy form is questionable in that the second has ran poorly since and the others in behind look like stayers, but he did do that very easily in a Grade 1. Think he's plenty of class and potential about him, and his best hurdle runs would be better than a few other recent Turners winners. I guess he could end up in the BANC but I reckon he'd be better here.

​​​​​​​Dinoblue likewise would seemingly have a pretty obvious target. Unless they run her round out the back a few times before the festival, she'll be weighted too high for the handicaps next season. And with the Mares usually a pretty weak race, and nothing obvious coming through as a novice? She looks a good candidate at 16s. Impervious taking on the boys would be a nice bonus like.

​​​​​​​

 

[BagOfHammers]

Agree that Good Land is a good choice in the turners. Others that could be considered value at the moment would be Champ Kiely or Inthepocket for me but appreciate their target is probably a little less clear

 

[Quevega]

Gerri Colombe has the right credentials, but his current price vs realistic alternatives is fucking dogshit.

You can see why he's that price (thin looking market behind GDC) but it's still muggy IMO.

I am strong on second season chasers aged 7 or 8 for the gold cup, but aside from GDC they mostly struggle to dominate/win early season open grade ones, and therefore prices like 7-1 at this stage should be treated with caution IMO.

Bravemansgame at 12-1 is probably a much more solid option at this point.

Betting value is often about timing and if you aren't on Gerri at double figures already then he's probably best watched for now. IMO.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Gerri Colombe has the right credentials, but his current price vs realistic alternatives is fucking dogshit.

You can see why he's that price (thin looking market behind GDC) but it's still muggy IMO.

I’d probably have to agree here.
The way GDC powered away last season tells me it’ll have to be an exceptional one to lower his colours come March, I’m not sure Gerri is that one and have conceded that GDC will very probably win again.
So if betting on the race (outside of GDC) it’ll probably be for place money and 7/1 doesn’t strike me as value.
Last years third, Conflated, probably has as much going for him as most and at 66/1 he looks a better option to me.
But he can’t win…

 

[Eggs]

….with MoM absent this month, perhaps we can look beyond his ‘Gaelic Invincible’ for something in The Stayers.

I like West Balboa @ 33-1. She won the Lanzarote & then stepped up to 3m to win the valuable stayers handicap at Aintree very comfortably. We already have an indication that 3m is the plan next season which rules out the Mares Hurdle. The doubt is no runs at Cheltenham & Skelton may skip the Festival for Aintree.

Relatively lightly raced, she could be a bit special.

 

[BagOfHammers]

….with MoM absent this month, perhaps we can look beyond his ‘Gaelic Invincible’ for something in The Stayers.

I like West Balboa @ 33-1. She won the Lanzarote & then stepped up to 3m to win the valuable stayers handicap at Aintree very comfortably. We already have an indication that 3m is the plan next season which rules out the Mares Hurdle. The doubt is no runs at Cheltenham & Skelton may skip the Festival for Aintree.

Relatively lightly raced, she could be a bit special.

Not one for the Yankee given the uncertainty but I’d love to see Queens Brook in the stayers

 

[Deleted member 4957]

….with MoM absent this month, perhaps we can look beyond his ‘Gaelic Invincible’ for something in The Stayers.

I like West Balboa @ 33-1. She won the Lanzarote & then stepped up to 3m to win the valuable stayers handicap at Aintree very comfortably. We already have an indication that 3m is the plan next season which rules out the Mares Hurdle. The doubt is no runs at Cheltenham & Skelton may skip the Festival for Aintree.

Relatively lightly raced, she could be a bit special.

The yankees already have Flooring Porter and Gaelic Warrior, but I’ve said a few times in previous yankee discussions the Stayers is one race that has plenty of value lurking lower down.
Good Time Johnny hacked up in the Pertemps and looks a late maturing horse that could easily be a Sire du Berlais mark 2.
Shoot First was being talked about as a champion stayer before his aborted Pertemps challenge, they’re both hovering around the 33/1 mark….

 

[Eggs]

The yankees already have Flooring Porter and Gaelic Warrior, but I’ve said a few times in previous yankee discussions the Stayers is one race that has plenty of value lurking lower down.
Good Time Johnny hacked up in the Pertemps and looks a late maturing horse that could easily be a Sire du Berlais mark 2.
Shoot First was being talked about as a champion stayer before his aborted Pertemps challenge, they’re both hovering around the 33/1 mark….

….I like Good Time Jonny. West Balboa beat him comfortably in that race at Aintree (albeit a handicap) but GTJ was doing all his best work at the end.

 

[Lobos]

I just can't look beyond GDC for a GC repeat. He was such an easy winner this year and for me he is way out in front of the others. Clearly we have to forgive his Punchestown effort but that's easily done.

No point trying to pick one to beat him when one doesn't exist.